3/3 - 3/5 Weekend Thread | Creed III gets the biggest franchise opening and MGM opening ever with 58.7M. #AintMan drops 61% for 12.5M. Jonathan Majors still getting paid fat stacks

[Webslinger]

I'm really impressed with that opening figure for Creed III. It's exciting to see it overperform, and hopefully it's setting up for a stellar March.

[Mickiland16]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

Um.

 

2.) Ant-man and the Wasp Quantumania (Dis) 3,825 (-520) theaters, Fri $3.1M (-63%) 3-day $12M (-62%), Total $186.3M/Wk 3

The same multiplier as Batman Vs Superman from third weekend to domestic total (330/296) would put it around $206 - $207 million which would mean worse legs (1.99 vs 1.95)... yikes. In fact right now is behind it already. BvS was at 1.78, this number for Ant-Man would mean 1.75.

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

I'm not one to focus so much on poor performances, but I was curious what the worst multipliers were for comic book films. Where is Quantumania going to fall? Can it stabilize?

 

Worst Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers:

 

Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier)

1. Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95)
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99)
3. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11)
4. Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13)
5. Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19)
6. Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 187.4 million (2.19)
7. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21)
8. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23)
9. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27)
10. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28)
11. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28)
12. Black Widow — 80.4 million (2.29)
13. Eternals (2021) — 71.3 million (2.31)
14. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35)
15. X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36)

Peace,

Mike

So 206,913,817 or lower would take the record for Ant 3. Awesome. 

[JayPrimetown]

2 hours ago, Mickiland16 said:

It's like a mini march 2017 where four movies opened over $40 million (Beauty and the Beast, Logan, Lego Batman and Kong) Depends on Shazam for this to tie it.

Interesting comprison. That was a Disney Classic, Superhero, Animation, and Monster.

 

To do 4 $40 million openings with boxing, horror slasher, superhero, and action film is wild. 

 

The 2017 example hit all different quadrants while the 2023 version would be with a much more narrow audience. It's very impressive and bodes very well for theatrical. 

 

The WOM for Scream is fantastic. Lot of buzz 1 week out and you can see it with ticket sales. I wonder if it legs out to a $45 Million OW.

[RamblinRed]

Great start for Creed. 

 

AM:Q had just the 5th best per theater avg on Friday behind Creed, DS, CB, and JR.

With the more mid-size cinemas (5-8 screens), it could be down to 1 small screen or gone completely by end of March.

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

7 hours ago, stuart360 said:

Bit surprised by Creed to be honest, i actually thought the lack of Rocky, and Sly telling publicly how the studio did the dirty on him, may of gone against the film.

The benefit Creed has compared to something like Fantastic Beasts or Star Wars, which will always be reliant on nostalgia legacy characters, is that the Creed movies and Rocky movies have very different audience demos.

 

I love Stallone and I'm not trying to discredit his popularity and draw power for the first two Creed movies. Rocky's one of my favorite film franchises of all time. But Donnie is a character who has really stood out on his own and strongly connected to people my generation, especially to POC communities, that we don't need Rocky to be there to get us excited. MBJ is enough. If anything, I feel like Creed II kinda limited its appeal towards people my age demographic by focusing too much on Rocky fanfiction silliness. So having something more in line with the original in terms of story and character, in line with something that the most active moviegoing demos would lap up (18-34, Black, Latino), and having awesome IMAX tech and a new actor who is making the rounds...yeah, we don't need Stallone, at least us youths.

 

Again, it's legit cool to see a franchise like Rocky now go on long enough where its main character isn't needed anymore to sell tickets. I think this is the only franchise that is able to do that.

[misterpepp]

Don’t mean to be that guy, but March 2017 actually had five $40m+ openers: Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers, and The Boss Baby.

 

To match it, Creed 3, Scream 6, Shazam 2, JW4, and D&D would all have to open with $40m+, which seems tough for some of those.

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Great start for Creed. 

 

AM:Q had just the 5th best per theater avg on Friday behind Creed, DS, CB, and JR.

With the more mid-size cinemas (5-8 screens), it could be down to 1 small screen or gone completely by end of March.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Avatar will outlast it. By the end of the month, performance is probably tipped towards Avatar, but, Antmans shorter run time makes it easier to get in more showtimes, or split the screen with something else.

 

We'll need to see how well 65 does, and how well like things like Cocaine Bear holds, but Antmans performance is going to be pretty marginal over the competition at best. When Mario hits, it'll likely be taking over a lot of screens, and Antman will likely be down to a pretty select number of theatres by that point.

[Mickiland16]

22 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:

Interesting comprison. That was a Disney Classic, Superhero, Animation, and Monster.

 

To do 4 $40 million openings with boxing, horror slasher, superhero, and action film is wild. 

 

The 2017 example hit all different quadrants while the 2023 version would be with a much more narrow audience. It's very impressive and bodes very well for theatrical. 

 

The WOM for Scream is fantastic. Lot of buzz 1 week out and you can see it with ticket sales. I wonder if it legs out to a $45 Million OW.

Agree, this is going to be a month way more interesting to follow than I thought and it's nice to see movies that atracts those kind of audience succeding. June seems to be the one that hits all diferent cuadrants this year. There's animation with Spider-Verse and Elemental, Superhero with the Flash (and Spider-Verse again) and well both Transformers and Indy are action but the latter appeals to an older crew.

[Mickiland16]

23 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Don’t mean to be that guy, but March 2017 actually had five $40m+ openers: Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers, and The Boss Baby.

 

To match it, Creed 3, Scream 6, Shazam 2, JW4, and D&D would all have to open with $40m+, which seems tough for some of those.

Oh I forgot about it, yeah it may not happen now I guess. Next year could be the one though: Snow White, Elio, Kung Fu Panda 4, Beyond the Spider-Verse and Godzilla vs Kong sequel. The problem is that one of the animated ones will end up moving because of competition.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Mickiland16

[Eric is Quiet]

@WrathOfHan @Blankments My turn...

 

16x:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Minions: The Rise of Gru, DC League of Super Pets, Don't Worry Darling, See How They Run, Ticket to Paradise, Till, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Strange World, The Fabelmans, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2, Magic Mike's Last Dance

 

9x:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Strange World, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, A Man Called Otto, Missing, Knock at the Cabin

 

8x:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Dog, Uncharted, The Guide, RRR, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2, Missing

Oppenheimer: Nope, Jaws, Avatar, The Fabelmans, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, A Man Called Otto, Living

 

7x:

Creed III: Till, Black Adam, Bones and All, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Women Talking, Cocaine Bear

 

6x:

John Wick: Chapter 4: Bullet Train, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Plane, The Whale, Knock at the Cabin

 

5x:

Magic Mike's Last Dance: Bones and All, The Menu, Babylon, The Whale, A Man Called Otto

Cocaine Bear: Violent Night, Babylon, Missing, Knock at the Cabin, Magic Mike's Last Dance

Chevalier: The Menu, The Whale, Women Talking, Living, Magic Mike's Last Dance

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Strange World, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2

Evil Dead Rise: M3GAN, Plane, Missing, Knock at the Cabin, Cocaine Bear

Book Club: The Next Chapter: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2, Women Talking, Close

 

4x:

65: Avatar: The Way of Water, A Man Called Otto, Missing, Magic Mike's Last Dance

 

3x:

Jesus Revolution: Ticket to Paradise, Plane, Living

Renfield: M3GAN, Knock at the Cabin, Cocaine Bear

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Plane, Cocaine Bear

 

2x:

Carole King Home Again: Live in Central Park: 2023 Oscar Nominated Shorts - Animation, EO

Emily: 2023 Oscar Nominated Shorts - Animation, EO

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre: The King's Man, Cocaine Bear

Champions: M3GAN, Magic Mike's Last Dance

The Lost King: 2023 Oscar Nominated Shorts - Animation, EO

A Good Person: Women Talking, Close

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret: Women Talking, Close

The Little Mermaid: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2

The Flash: Uncharted, The Batman

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1: Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2

Barbie: Avatar: The Way of Water, Magic Mike's Last Dance

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: Uncharted, The Batman

Showing Up: The Whale, Close

 

Quote

1x:

Turn Every Page - The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb: Living

Marlowe: Plane

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Missing

2023 Academy Award Nomianated Shorts: EO

Scream 6: Babylon

Moving On: Magic Mike's Last Dance

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Smile

Maffia Mamma: Knock at the Cabin

Beau is Afraid: Close

Polite Society: Knock at the Cabin

Strays: Cocaine Bear

Elemental: Strange World

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Avatar: The Way of Water

White Bird: A Wonder Story: Thor: Love and Thunder

One Fine Morning: Living

The Unbreakable Boy: King Richard

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Antman going under $500M WW would just be pathetic, poor WOM or not

 

Excited to see what Feige has cooking now that they plan to change things up 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[JustLurking]

Haven't really been too interested in Creed myself since thinking first one was meh esp. compared to something like Warrior just a few years prior. This one looks better but I think I'll catch on streaming. Nice to see new franchises breaking out though, congrats to it.

 

21 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Don’t mean to be that guy, but March 2017 actually had five $40m+ openers: Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers, and The Boss Baby.

 

To match it, Creed 3, Scream 6, Shazam 2, JW4, and D&D would all have to open with $40m+, which seems tough for some of those.

No way D&D is doing that unfortunately imho. I think Shazam goes under as well.

[AGlitchGnome]

19 minutes ago, datpepper said:

To match it, Creed 3, Scream 6, Shazam 2, JW4, and D&D would all have to open with $40m+, which seems tough for some of those.

Honestly the only one I see there that would struggle to do that is D&D. Which is unfortunate as I think that movie looks really fun.

[GOGODanca]

It doesn’t change how I see myself, period. It’s all data,” Majors said about bad reviews. “I’m a performance within a story. One thing I will say to my team as we’re leaving a premiere if they’re reading reviews, I’ll say, ‘How’s the movie doing?’ I try to clean my plate and take care of my part. The response is: ‘You’re straight. You’re good. They like you.’ And they tell me about the movie. Sometimes the movie is also on that level, and sometimes [it’s not].”

“It’s just people,” Majors added about film critics. “They have an opinion. You always have an opinion. I’m no fool. I know these are people writing it. These aren’t my Yale professors or my drama teachers. These are people who have kids and they have a perspective, they have a religious upbringing or a lack thereof. They live in this town, or they want to be seen in this way or don’t want to be seen in this way. I look at the aggregate and, ok, 47. But what does that 47 mean when you also got this amount of box office? What do these things mean? It’s information. I am in the know. I won’t play myself. If you are a critic on a level, I probably know you and understand your politics.”

 

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jonathan-majors-ant-man-quantumania-negative-reviews-1235542180/

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

It'll be interesting to see if Avatar will outlast it. By the end of the month, performance is probably tipped towards Avatar, but, Antmans shorter run time makes it easier to get in more showtimes, or split the screen with something else.

 

We'll need to see how well 65 does, and how well like things like Cocaine Bear holds, but Antmans performance is going to be pretty marginal over the competition at best. When Mario hits, it'll likely be taking over a lot of screens, and Antman will likely be down to a pretty select number of theatres by that point.

65 feels like a complete nonstarter tbh. It had some buzz when the first trailer landed but the marketing leading up to its release is so quiet and minimal, with its biggest red flag being that it (apparently) isn't being shown to the press before release, which is always a sign of doom. It's probably going to end up with a similar run to Moonfall.

[MovieMan89]

My 11m guess for AM going into the weekend could def happen if Sat underwhelms for it too. Either way, turning into an all around fail w profitability for it looking highly unlikely. 

Fantastic for Creed. Rare trilogy to possibly increase admissions with each (though 1 may have outsold 2 a bit). 

 

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, JimmyB said:

Um.

 

2.) Ant-man and the Wasp Quantumania (Dis) 3,825 (-520) theaters, Fri $3.1M (-63%) 3-day $12M (-62%), Total $186.3M/Wk 3

also jesus. I'll guess this comes a little higher on actuals and maybe flirts with the O/U 60 but this is just terrible. at this point I don't think 500 WW is happening.

[grey ghost]

I didn't realize how strong Creed 3's OW was until I looked at Creed and Creed 2's OW.

 

They only made 29 m OW and 35 m OW.

 

50+ m is really good for the Creed series.

 

You can't ask for anything better than a trilogy that is more successful with every movie.