THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Yeah, Little Mermaid is the only wildcard I can think of to challenge it. I think it looks pretty awful, but never underestimate the nostalgia drug

 

Nah, since the D+ rollout, these don't go big anymore...heck, these don't always even release anymore.  

 

It has no chance to beat Mario DOM or WW.  Spidey destroys it one week after open.  I see Spidey like I saw Mario.  Just at a slightly lower level b/c Mario is Mario...and Spidey has some competition, whereas Mario has little...

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Nah, since the D+ rollout, these don't go big anymore...heck, these don't always even release anymore.  

 

It has no chance to beat Mario DOM or WW.  Spidey destroys it one week after open.  I see Spidey like I saw Mario.  Just at a slightly lower level b/c Mario is Mario...and Spidey has some competition, whereas Mario has little...

There's only been one that's come out in theaters since they reopened. Seems unfair to say they aren't big anymore.

 

And regardless, any potential remake fatigue or Disney+ factor or whatever is mitigated by Halle's casting. Those "she looks like me" TikToks when the teaser dropped show this is a major event for tons of kids.

[grey ghost]

There are few movies that could cross 300m this year...

 

Indy, Mission Impossible, and Little Mermaid.

 

With some potential breakouts like Spider-verse and Transformers. 

 

But nothing is touching Mario if it crosses 450m.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

There's only been one that's come out in theaters since they reopened. Seems unfair to say they aren't big anymore.

 

And regardless, any potential remake fatigue or Disney+ factor or whatever is mitigated by Halle's casting. Those "she looks like me" TikToks when the teaser dropped show this is a major event for tons of kids.

That said Disney taking this to Beauty and the Beast level seems a stretch. Even a Cindrella or Maleficent levels are good start. Legs wont be that great considering the cluster**** June is. I just dont understand why all the studios are packing up that month while rest of summer isn't that crazy. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[grey ghost]

Lol at the parents who boycott Little Mermaid when their kids are begging them to go.

 

No better way to ensure your kid becomes a progressive when they grow up.

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

There are few movies that could cross 300m this year...

 

Indy, Mission Impossible, and Little Mermaid.

 

With some potential breakouts like Spider-verse and Transformers. 

 

But nothing is touching Mario if it crosses 450m.

You really think MI:DR has a chance at 300M? I hope it makes that much, but i don't see it. The series has its fans (me included), but i don't see it jumping that much from the last one. I see no reason for the huge increase

[cooldude97]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Lol at the parents who boycott Little Mermaid when their kids are begging them to go.

 

No better way to ensure your kid becomes a progressive when they grow up.

i'm fine with little mermaid underperforming if it means children learn that their racist parents suck

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

You really think MI:DR has a chance at 300M? I hope it makes that much, but i don't see it. The series has its fans (me included), but i don't see it jumping that much from the last one. I see no reason for the huge increase

 

There might be a Top Gun bump.

 

I'd imagine Tom Cruise expanded his fanbase to some degree.

[Maggie]

I see The Little Mermaid around 300M. It's not touching Mario imo

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

There are few movies that could cross 300m this year...

 

Indy, Mission Impossible, and Little Mermaid.

 

With some potential breakouts like Spider-verse and Transformers. 

 

But nothing is touching Mario if it crosses 450m.

Yeahhhh, I don't see Mission: Impossible getting there. I know people are crowing that TGM will cause a major boost, but Fallout had "greatest action movie of all time" level reception and it still only just did 220M. I can see an increase from that 220M, but this franchise has a ceiling and this seems to be more of the same. Not a pejorative or complaint creatively, just saying that it won't get people who aren't on board with these movies excited.

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That said Disney taking this to Beauty and the Beast level seems a stretch. Even a Cindrella or Maleficent levels are good start. Legs wont be that great considering the cluster**** June is. I just dont understand why all the studios are packing up that month while rest of summer isn't that crazy. 

I agree it won't go into the 500s, but I think getting past 400 or at least near it is a strong possibility. Which is close to what Mario's probably getting to. I have some Disney Adult friends and follow some people on Black Twitter and they are all very on board and are very excited for the movie because of Halle. Either wa, I would be surprised if this hit Cinderella/Maleficent numbers. Guess we'll see.

[keysersoze123]

For Mario it looks like this is weekend :-) But I expect ticket sales to slow down as we approach evening. I dont see audience going to a midnight show(though many did yesterday) today. 

 

Air is going slow at this point and need significant ramp up during evening hours to even hit 3m. It does not have much of PLF and so average ticket price is not great. 

[Brainbug]

Indy 5 can be a a strong contender for winning the year both DOM and WW imo, if its a great movie - since Disney seems very confident in it, thats atleast not unlikely. But if Mario truly blows up this weekend, it will be hard to catch it. Little Mermaid imo has a very wide range where it could land - 250M to 450M is all possible for me, i dont really have a gut feeling for that film.

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office-super-mario-bros-movie-air-amazon-ben-affleck-1235318951/

 

Quote

Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie doesn’t need a mushroom to get bigger, it just organically is. Out of the gate today Wednesday, sans any Tuesday previews, the feature take of the classic game is looking at $26M, for what’s translating into a $86.2M 3-day, $127.5M Wednesday through Sunday haul. Interesting, even though its opening day was a Friday, but Paramount/Sega’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 had a $26.3M first day (plus Thursday previews). That film currently holds the 3-day record for a videogame feature adaptation with $72.1M, one which Super Mario Bros looks to squash.

 

Amazon/Artists Equity/Skydance Sports/Mandalay’s Air, which is positioned to those over 25, is seeing a first day of $3.5M, a 3-day of $10.1M, and a 5-day of $16M for the Ben Affleck, and starring movie, which reteams him with his Good Will Hunting fellow Oscar winner Matt Damon in the story about how Nike signed a young Michael Jordan to create the Air Jordan sneaker which transformed the company forever.

 

[GOGODanca]

https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office-super-mario-bros-movie-air-amazon-ben-affleck-1235318951/

 

$26m wed sans previews 

[kayumanggi]

Deadline being Deadline. 🤣🤣🤣

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Yeahhhh, I don't see Mission: Impossible getting there. I know people are crowing that TGM will cause a major boost, but Fallout had "greatest action movie of all time" level reception and it still only just did 220M. I can see an increase from that 220M, but this franchise has a ceiling and this seems to be more of the same. Not a pejorative or complaint creatively, just saying that it won't get people who aren't on board with these movies excited.

 

I agree it won't go into the 500s, but I think getting past 400 or at least near it is a strong possibility. Which is close to what Mario's probably getting to. I have some Disney Adult friends and follow some people on Black Twitter and they are all very on board and are very excited for the movie because of Halle. Either wa, I would be surprised if this hit Cinderella/Maleficent numbers. Guess we'll see.

 

And all that's true...but Spidey draws from the same base and yet way more...

 

When I saw DnD and Mario back to back, I stayed out of the $500M Mario DOM club until DnD open b/c both could appeal to a lot of the same audience and that audience only has so much money in a 1 week period (so anything DnD got would draw down some of Mario).  DnD got crushed at open with only $37M, which left all the money for Mario.

 

Spidey 2 is having ALL the press and goodwill like Mario, and is drawing right over the same Mermaid Demo - I see the same scenario playing out.  People think about going to the one movie, but they actually buy the tickets right away to the 2nd, while they still think about the 1st, and then decide that D+ exists...and don't buy...

 

 

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Deadline being Deadline. 🤣🤣🤣

They got last 2 opening days correct iirc or very close, remember we could see discounted tickets for kids dragging gross down

 

Also you guys aren't giving The Flash any love, WB seems to think they've got a TGM level comic book movie on hands and Keaton nostalgia will draw out the middle aged crowd

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Deadline being Deadline. 🤣🤣🤣

 

"Not a record". 

[TwoMisfits]

One of my 2 locals has now added a full (small) screen for Mario over the next 5 days...taking showings from JW3 and 65...

 

Edit to Add: This is big spring break here, and Mario is (as expected) huge today, tomorrow, and Friday...

Edited April 5, 2023 by TwoMisfits