THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Gopher said:

 

From the Puck newsletter on January 2nd: 

 

"Because the trailer debuted at Brazil Comic Con on Dec. 1, the same day as two other high profile summer trailers—Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9) and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 (May 5)—rival studios were able to compare views to gauge relative strength out of the gate. After two weeks across YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok, here were the numbers, per a studio source:

Transformers 7: 506 million views
Guardians of Galaxy 3: 187 million views
Indiana Jones 5: 79 million views

There’s still time, of course, and it might be that the Indy audience isn’t the most online. But the coronation seems premature."

 

If word out of Cannes is "it's okay, too much CGI, for the best this is the last one," then I think Indy is in serious trouble-- especially hitting two weeks before another A-lister/franchise beloved by old people...

I think the box office will not reflect the youtube views. Indy will surely beat Transformers 7

 

About Cannes. I think it will not get bad/average reviews. They are insane if the movie is not great and they premiere so much in advance

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Gopher said:

 

From the Puck newsletter on January 2nd: 

 

"Because the trailer debuted at Brazil Comic Con on Dec. 1, the same day as two other high profile summer trailers—Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9) and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 (May 5)—rival studios were able to compare views to gauge relative strength out of the gate. After two weeks across YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok, here were the numbers, per a studio source:

Transformers 7: 506 million views
Guardians of Galaxy 3: 187 million views
Indiana Jones 5: 79 million views

There’s still time, of course, and it might be that the Indy audience isn’t the most online. But the coronation seems premature."

 

If word out of Cannes is "it's okay, too much CGI, for the best this is the last one," then I think Indy is in serious trouble-- especially hitting two weeks before another A-lister/franchise beloved by old people...

If transformers regain its past glory then we can confirm these trailer views have a direct correlation to BO and Indy 5 is screwed as well :-) While TGM had support of older audience, it was a 4 Quad hit. It attracted all demos to make 715m+. There is no way only one demographic can take a movie that high. 

[MattW]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Fast X $340M

Flash $300M

Indy 5 $295M

MI 7 $290M

300 is the new 200

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I think the box office will not reflect the youtube views. Indy will surely beat Transformers 7

 

About Cannes. I think it will not get bad/average reviews. They are insane if the movie is not great and they premiere so much in advance

LucasFilms doesn't do test screenings

[JayPrimetown]

Quorum info for Barbie and Oppenheimer alone makes no sense. As others have stated, the amount of marketing for Oppenheimer thus far this far out is incredible. Plus, it's being hyped as a legit Best Picture Contender. 17% Quorum score makes no sense. 

 

Barbie to me is going to be great or very bad. I think there will be a lot of intrigue due to the star power, but man does it look cringe in my eyes.

Still crazy to me these two films are releasing on the same day

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:

Quorum info for Barbie and Oppenheimer alone makes no sense. As others have stated, the amount of marketing for Oppenheimer thus far this far out is incredible. Plus, it's being hyped as a legit Best Picture Contender. 17% Quorum score makes no sense. 

 

Barbie to me is going to be great or very bad. I think there will be a lot of intrigue due to the star power, but man does it look cringe in my eyes.

Still crazy to me these two films are releasing on the same day

[grey ghost]

Out of likes.

 

Might have to upgrade.

 

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Rumored production budgets

 

GOTG 3 $250M

Fast X $340M

Little Mermaid $150M

Transformers $200M

Flash $300M

Indy 5 $295M

MI 7 $290M

Oppenheimer $100M

Barbie $100M

 

Just for a few I pulled on google searches...

340? Holy molly

[Maggie]

Barbie test screenings have been great. From what i've seen on letterboxd it scored better than MI:DR

[grey ghost]

For the Barbie/Oppenheimer stans.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Maggie said:

Barbie test screenings have been great. From what i've seen on letterboxd it scored better than MI:DR

letterboxd this far out is useless. There is no confirmation even if the person who rated it has seen it. 

 

I am also 100% confident Barbie wont be received better than MI7. That is just not happening. 

[PrinceRico]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

letterboxd this far out is useless. There is no confirmation even if the person who rated it has seen it. 

 

I am also 100% confident Barbie wont be received better than MI7. That is just not happening. 

Yeah, we really should take test screenings with a grain of salt. Remember last year when Babylon was supposed to be a masterpiece based off of screaming.

[Eric the Ape]

I mean...Quorum is high for Indiana Jones? Take out Mario and it's in the top 10 for awareness despite it coming out a long while away and it's been above 6.0 in Interest since the beginning. I don't really care about trailer views, since those can be manipulated by having them play as ads on YouTube. I'm sure once Cannes comes around, we'll sing a totally different tune.

[GOGODanca]

Barbie didn't score higher in test screenings, some dude on letterboxd rated the former higher and we have no proof he saw either movie 

[Morieris]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Rumored production budgets

 

GOTG 3 $250M

Fast X $340M

Little Mermaid $150M

Transformers $200M

Flash $300M

Indy 5 $295M

MI 7 $290M

Oppenheimer $100M

Barbie $100M

 

Just for a few I pulled on google searches...

 

I would be extremely impressed if TLM was only 150$m. then again, some shots for now look like that wasn't enough.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Morieris

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Honestly nothing this summer really screams bomb to me

 

Transformers, Barbie, and Blue Beetle are all potential bombs. The Flash as well if the 300m budget rumors are true though more of a flop than a mega bomb 

[robertman2]

Mario is completely sold out at my local theater

 

I haven't seen that since Endgame

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Throwing my hat in the ring, Barbie is going to be a top 5 movie this summer. Hype online is through the roof. I think it’s doing LEGO movie numbers with a slightly bigger opening. 80/275 is where I’m at for now.

 

who is the audience for a Barbie movie? It should be small girls but the movie is targeted to adults? What? And hype online does not always equate to general audience interest, and don’t forget Margot Robbie is not a draw 

[Maggie]

Margot is not a draw, but the Barbie brand is the draw here. I think the movie will appeal to teenage and adult women and when they're hungry for a movie we get Twilight results.

[JimmyB]

Fast X seems like the movie to most likely to bomb IMO.  I know IMDB sucks but Fast 9 only has a 5.2/10.

Fast X is following up to a bad movie plus the China money is drying up for American films which is bad news for a Fast movie.

I could see it grossing 500-550M worldwide on a $340M budget.