Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is a great time to release them. Last big movie of the Mar/Apr time frame. Let us see what happens next year. Would Disney try to grab that frame or would Universal would keep putting out big movies every spring. 

Why don’t these studios finally hop on Labor Day releases? It is baffling to me since it’s such an open spot to this day that something could totally dominate with. 

[MovieMan89]

Paramount for example would be extremely smart to move Transformers to Labor Day. It’s gonna get decimated where it’s at. With decent reception, it could actually be a relatively big breakout in the LD slot. 

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, Austin said:

Is John Wick 4 $200M/DOM $400M/WW still in play?

 

200M no. 400M yes. Still has Japan.

[Grebacio]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is a great time to release them. Last big movie of the Mar/Apr time frame. Let us see what happens next year. Would Disney try to grab that frame or would Universal would keep putting out big movies every spring. 

Spiderverse 3 is scheduled to open on March 29th, aka Easter week. Sony should open it 2 days earlier and follow Mario's strategy

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[thajdikt]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

Spiderverse 3 is scheduled to open on March 29th, aka Easter week. Sony should open it 2 days earlier and follow Mario's strategy

Oh that might be a monster if Across The Spider-Verse delivers, not Mario level ofc but that might do really well with that release date.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

lmao It's even closer. 🤣🤣🤣

 

 

Quote

1

(1)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

$59,930,940

-35%

4,350

-21

$436,030,550

 

 

[M37]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why don’t these studios finally hop on Labor Day releases? It is baffling to me since it’s such an open spot to this day that something could totally dominate with. 

The problem isn’t Labor Day weekend, it’s the post-summer return to the M-F grind producing the lowest relative grossing weekdays of the year, plus football (of all levels) drawing a whole lot of eyeballs away on weekends (plus Mon & Thur evenings). And often budgets often tighten after a summer splurge; the grossing potential of September is just much smaller than a summer or holiday period 

 

Shang-Chi had great WOM, basically no competition for over a month, and made 2.04x its first week in total. JWD went in mid-June, had poor reviews and and whole lot of competition and finished at 1.97x, or just 3% less

[Eric is Quiet]

3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

lmao It's even closer. 🤣🤣🤣

 

Just wanted to make sure you got all the reactions.

[kayumanggi]

30 minutes ago, Eric Williams said:

Just wanted to make sure you got all the reactions.

 

[JohnCarterofEarth]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Paramount for example would be extremely smart to move Transformers to Labor Day. It’s gonna get decimated where it’s at. With decent reception, it could actually be a relatively big breakout in the LD slot. 

I think last weekend of July would be a better time. It only has Haunted Mansion to compete with that weekend and then just mid to low level threats the rest of August with Meg 2 and Blue Beetle. If the movie is great I still think it’ll hold well. But yeah the big studios are going full Battle Royale in June. 

[XXR & Friends]

I round to the nearest million, @Porthos stays!

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The problem isn’t Labor Day weekend, it’s the post-summer return to the M-F grind producing the lowest relative grossing weekdays of the year, plus football (of all levels) drawing a whole lot of eyeballs away on weekends (plus Mon & Thur evenings). And often budgets often tighten after a summer splurge; the grossing potential of September is just much smaller than a summer or holiday period 

 

Shang-Chi had great WOM, basically no competition for over a month, and made 2.04x its first week in total. JWD went in mid-June, had poor reviews and and whole lot of competition and finished at 1.97x, or just 3% less

Get your point, but I wouldn’t use SC as any kind of indicator given it was one of the first post covid releases to do much of anything. Its run was way more impressive than not imo. Would like to see a proper test 

[Felandria]

Looks like D&D came in at $5.5 and passed Air for the #5 spot, nice.

[kayumanggi]

On 4/23/2023 at 11:25 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

 

58.23M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

23.50M | EVIL DEAD RISE

06.28M | THE COVENANT

05.75M | JOHN WICK IV

05.55M | AIR

05.40M | D&D: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

03.32M | THE POPE'S EXORCIST

03.11M | RENFIELD

02.71M | BEAU IS AFRAID

01.63M | SUZUME

01.50M | CHEVALIER

 

WEEKEND ACTUALS

 

59.93M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

24.50M | EVIL DEAD RISE

06.38M | THE COVENANT

05.84M | JOHN WICK IV

05.50M | D&D: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

05.45M | AIR

03.40M | THE POPE'S EXORCIST

03.25M | RENFIELD

02.83M | BEAU IS AFRAID*

01.60M | SUZUME

01.52M | CHEVALIER

 

*still estimates

Edited April 25, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Nate]

On 4/24/2023 at 10:21 AM, grey ghost said:

 

 

 

Huge props 

[lilmac]

On 4/23/2023 at 6:08 PM, stuart360 said:

I see Mario finishing around 570-580mil.

 

13mil weekdays coming up - 447mil total

40mil next weekend - 487mil total

9mil weekdays - 496mil total

25mil weekend - 521mil total

6mil weekdays - 527mil total

15mil weekend - 542mil total

4mil weekdays - 546mil total

10mil weekend - 556mil total

2mil weekdays - 558mil total

6mil weekend - 564mil total

1mil weekdays - 565mil total

3mil weekend - 568mil total

 

and probably another 5-10mil added on over the next few weeks, unless its pulled from cinemas.

 

I may of even been a little high with some of my weekday totals as i feel this will become more of a weekend film as the weeks go on.

So yeah i see around 580mil toital, which is great to be honest.

 

 

I see that as well, high $500s. If you asked me 10 years ago, what's a virtually untouched IP that will be a huge hit...I would not have considered Mario. I assumed the 1990s disaster poisoned the well. What a fantastic success, one that will open up other AAA Nintendo adaptations (Zelda, Star Fox, Donkey Kong, Metroid, etc.....we already got Pokemon).

[titanic2187]

The wide-release newcomers made $30m this weekend (EDR+Covenant) but holdovers seem holding better compared to last week with 4 wide release made just $24m, proving the number of new wide releases matter to holdovers, not just their BO gross.

 

April is on track for $850m but I must say I am a bit disappointed by AIR's leg. 

[Austin]

13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The wide-release newcomers made $30m this weekend (EDR+Covenant) but holdovers seem holding better compared to last week with 4 wide release made just $24m, proving the number of new wide releases matter to holdovers, not just their BO gross.

 

April is on track for $850m but I must say I am a bit disappointed by AIR's leg. 

I don't know how much more an R-rated drama can do in today's BO.