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2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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11 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Inside Out 2 


THURSDAY PREVIEWS -

Previous Update: 774 tickets

New Update: 787 tickets

Growth: 13 tickets (or 1.6% increase)

 

Some growth, not bad but I expect sales to increase steadily as we get closer to release day. I’m of the opinion that this won’t be presale heavy whatsoever. The presales are good enough to not be a disaster like Garfield, but not big enough to guarantee a 100m opening. I still like what I’m seeing though. As my local theater has finally shown some signs of life with this film. 5 tickets sold. Way better than Garfield at the same point.

 

FRIDAY - 

I think some of these seats are just blocked off so the numbers might not be completely accurate, but it’s looking extremely strong for Friday. 

 

900 tickets for the five theaters I track. Maybe even 1,286 tickets if my numbers are accurate. That tells me this is not front loaded whatsoever. Or at the very least not preview heavy.

Which is not shocking at all. It's right as the kids are getting out of school for the summer. So summer weekdays will kick in that following week. So if thursday previews do not explode it really means nothing.

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Posted (edited)

So May is going fall just shy of 550m looks like, 230m short of the last 2 years. Best March post covid, but that's about all we got this year.

    2022 2023 2024
January   389.8 584.8 495.9
February   365.9 499.5 363.9
March   589.4 638.2 750
April   571 900.9 429.9
May   785.9 774.1 545
    2702 3397.5 2584.7

 

More than 100m behind 2022 now. 

 

However, Dune and Godzilla-Kong did well in 2021 and again in 2024. Ghostbusters a bit but not as much.

So keep an eye out for

Quiet Place 2024

Venom 2024

Venom in particular I think is one of those memeable movies in the vein of Minions that could maintain its hold on the younguns today.

Edited by MattW
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Looking ahead, after Deadpool the landscape becomes very barren. The only movie in August that could pass 80m (not even 100m) is Alien: Romulus, September has basically just Beetlejuice (transformers and wild robot will have a moutain to climb to make 100m. October looks better, but it's really top heavy with Joker, Venom, and then there's not much else.

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1 hour ago, Flip said:

Looking ahead, after Deadpool the landscape becomes very barren. The only movie in August that could pass 80m (not even 100m) is Alien: Romulus, September has basically just Beetlejuice (transformers and wild robot will have a moutain to climb to make 100m. October looks better, but it's really top heavy with Joker, Venom, and then there's not much else.


What are you talking about? After Venom there’s Moana 2, Gladiator 2 and Wicked, and that’s in November. 

 

Then in December we have Mufasa, Sonic 3 and the Lord of the Rings animated film. Kraven is a non-factor in my opinion 

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10 hours ago, Speedorito said:

Projections dropping from an optimistic 8.5B (and 8B consensus) to an optimistic 7.5B. Last year was 9.1B.

 

The holiday season is really going to have to pull its weight and more.

I thought last year was 8.9B? 

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184m so far this month, 55m M-Th this week, and currently playing movies I think make another ~175m.

Inside Out maybe 275 if it does similar to Across the Spiderverse which based on the b&t thread seems reasonable, keyser thinking 110+ ow I saw.

June 21 releases about 40m

June 28 releases could go for another 60m

 = 790m for June.

 

June 14 edit:

Looks like Inside Out will do 100m more than I guessed, So 875-900m or so depending on how far it goes.

 

June 22: Hmm, now looks like IO2 should do 450-475 during June, the month won't fall that much short of 2022's June now. Very surprising turn of events.

Edited by MattW
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On 5/4/2024 at 11:52 PM, Relevation said:

1. Inside Out 2 - $148M OW / $551M DOM


wow, that opening weekend prediction was only 6 million off. Congrats. That domestic total was also pretty accurate depending on legs

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On 6/21/2024 at 4:02 PM, AnthonyJPHer said:


wow, that opening weekend prediction was only 6 million off. Congrats. That domestic total was also pretty accurate depending on legs

Bro is now 3/3 when it comes to predicting top BO breakouts, someone call him a prophet already

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On 1/3/2024 at 8:19 PM, Relevation said:

Yeah

 

- People love the first Inside Out, it’s 9 years out putting it in a good time space for a big nostalgia boost

- Pixar nostalgia direct sequels kinda have a perfect track record as of late (Toy Story 3, Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4)

- The Pixar brand is still very strong theatrically (they launched an original fantasy romcom to global numbers bigger than 6/8 superhero movies last year, one dud with a whole host of unique handicaps is not emblematic of an entire brand’s strength)

- I expect it to at least get very good audience reception with its touching on mental health and anxiety likely resonating big time with audiences and crucially with Gen Z and the 18-24 demographic, a major fueler of recent young skewing breakouts (Mario, The Rise of Gru, Barbie)

- It’s in a wide open June with no other strong 4 quadrant blockbusters, and I expect it to have good legs

- The anticipation and hype is very big, it launched to the biggest 24hr trailer views for a Disney animated film ever 

 

 

So yeah, all those factors combined are why I’m pencilling in a prediction of $135M OW / $540M DOM (4x legs) / $1.175B WW and by a significant margin the biggest movie of 2024

season 6 GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants

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