wildphantom Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I still think Twisters is going to do really well. I think some here are going to be shocked. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I will say it’s been ages since a disaster movie has… err, hit at the box office, but I don’t think that means it’s time I think it means it’s a fully dead genre. Just even further proof to me Twisters is a ridiculous notion in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Relevation said: Hide contents I’m not on the Madame Web $100M+ DOM train by any stretch but come on lmao $15-20M OW ($27-35M 6-day) / $30-40M DOM / $70-100M WW The Marvels, a sequel to one of the biggest grossers of all time, couldn’t scratch 100 DOM and you think Madame Web has even 1/4 of the interest? I’ll believe it when I see it. Ready to call it at 25 being the ceiling barring the shock of the century and people actually loving the movie. Floor basically doesn’t exist for it Edited January 6 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) EDIT wrong thread Edited January 6 by AniNate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/5/2024 at 3:17 PM, M37 said: 2024 Predictions Starting with the caveat that pre-release forecasts are not really my forte, as I rely more on data, and a lot of “buzz” tends to happen outside of my radar [I rely a fair amount on what y’all say on these boards tbh]. But with that said here are my predictions for 2024 releases (domestic only) $400M+ Chart Toppers Reveal hidden contents Ummm... Yeah, I don’t see a single release that I’m confident enough to project to reach that mark. Now of course, would also not have predicted TGM, Mario or Barbie to do so either, so there very well could be [at least] one surprise in store. But IMO, it plays out more like 2014, where only 2 releases topped $260M (Sniper was really a 2015 film), a lull at the top of the charts, as the market transitioned from YA series (Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games) to the MCU, Jurassic World, and big action franchises Also some data for the last two years (2023 / 2022) $300M+ Films = 5 / 8 $200M+ Films = 8 / 8 $150M+ Films = 17 / 12 $100M+ Films = 25 / 18 $300M Club Reveal hidden contents Alright here we go: 1. Despicable Me 4 $95 ($150 5-day)/$350 – probably the safest choice for a top level film if not year winner, as 3 of the last 4 films in the DM franchise have pulled in at least $330M. But without a Gentleminions bump, will there be a drop from Rise of Gru? 2. Deadpool 3 – $145/$340 – I know CBMs have struggled of late, and this is the first Disney-helmed take on the character, but the success of DP has always been its anti-hero tone, and I think that still holds even as the heroic comic fascination crumbles like Limbo from Inception 3. Inside Out 2 - $90/$300 – Very torn here, despite some of the chatter I’ve seen, as my gut is telling me this isn’t a $325M+ breakout. Disney continues to face headwinds in the domestic market with their family product, we're a bit early for true nostalgia sequel territory, and its squeezed between Garfield and DM4, the latter arriving on only day 19. The end result is a compromise (aka chickening out) and putting IO2 in the Mermaid Zone (the only film post-pandemic to gross between $225M and $325M), rather than a lower total I’m actually expecting. I will also predict there will be at least one more film that vaults up into this range, but none that I’m confident enough to call for at present $200M Range Reveal hidden contents As you (should hopefully) know by now, I'm been citing the lack of mid-class ($225-$325M) films for a while now. And while I won't be surprised if in a weaker year that one or even a few of these films bump into that gap to fill the overall void in the market, won't explicitly call for it. More accurately, this is the $175M and over club: films that I think can at least approach $200M, not necessarily that they all will go above that threshold 4. Joker Folie a Duex $100/$215 – think it goes the way of IT Chapter 2 following the massive success of IT; difficult to replicate the social amplifying effect of that moment 5. Beetlejuice 2 $85/$200 – OK fine, I’ll bite on the hype, but this is a high as I’m willing to go (for now) because of the limiting factor of the release date 6. Dune Part II - $80/$190 – A sizeable jump from Part 1, but not on ATSV level. John Wick 4 numbers seem more likely to me than The Batman 7. Mufasa - $45/$180 – Yeah, so … I’m having a difficult time envisioning this brand name – taking into consideration the TLK poor WOM and spin-off nature - opening lower than Wonka, and even with weaker legs, the holidays would help push it to a similar total $150M Performers Hide contents Same as above, a soft threshold (more like $135M+), but in the range of $150M 8. Sonic 3 $40/$170 – weak legs on last one has me skeptical its due for another increase, but could be missing the hype on this one 9. Venom 3 $70/$165 – Joker is both grabbing the October release spot, bumping Venom out of spooky season, and IMO taking the wind out of its sails more broadly by opening first. Drops off to around Black Adam level 10. Bad Boys 4 $60/$160 – BB4L was a $200M grosser (even losing some late legs to pandemic) in 2020, but is there the same appetite for one more? Should be a decent popcorn action flick regardless 11. Fall Guy $50/$155 – While definitely think there is potential here, not quite sure where to place this one, but riding a post-Barbie Gosling wave (and weak May) to a pretty solid domestic total at minimum to Free Guy level is where I'm starting 12. Furiosa $55/$150 – Sure? I’m not the person to ask about this one, as part of the 5% who didn’t enjoy Fury Road, but in same ballpark as the original seems fair 13. Quiet Place Day 1 $50/$140 – Even with an anticipated franchise fatigue drop-off, P2 making $160M during semi-pandemic times should leave a solid floor around Nope range 14. Twisters $55/$135 – As much as I’m a fan of the original, really starting to get ID4: Resurgence vibes here, and DP3 swoops in for week 2 to cut off legs, even if WOM is good Some of you may have noticed a few high profile films absent so far … $100M+ Solid Performers (or Disappointments) Hide contents 15. Godzilla X Kong $60/$130 – Along with Dune 2 as the only big action flicks of the first 4-5 months (well, maybe a 3rd😉), could lead to a big opening but perhaps not much beyond that 16. Kung Fu Panda 4 $40/$120 – Franchise grosses have gone $215 --> $165 --> $143, so what am I missing here? Also isn’t much of a mid-tier these for animated films post-pandemic, with only Elemental getting over $120M among the smaller releases (and only by long legs), most clustered around $100M 17. IF $40/$115 – won’t be surprised IF this goes higher, IF it manages to strike the right tone and not come off too campy/childish 18. Ghostbusters Frozen Empire $35/$115 – feels like Afterlife scratched a nostalgia itch more than opened a franchise door, and the frozen theme seems out of place for Spring 19. Gladiator 2 $40/$110 – another sequel essentially in name only, and I fear yet also an historical/action film way overvalued by the demo skew of this community; goes more of the way of Napoleon 20. Madame Web $35 ($55 6-day)/$105 – Yeah, I’ve seen the reactions to the trailer, and that’s the only reason I have it down here and not even higher. The 6-day Valentine’s to Presidents Day opening has a lot of potential for what will be a pretty starved market by then, even if legs collapse after 21. Garfield $30/$100 – a totally fine animated film that gives families and option and doesn’t bother anyone, much like Trolls 3 or Super Pets 22. Imaginary $30/$100 – think this one has potential to be yet another horror hit, has a run similar to M3GAN or maybe even Smile 23. Planet of the Apes $35/$100 – Last offering only managed $148M, down from over $200M, and also get the sense Disney has already given up on this one (not securing PLFs nor moving release date, same behavior we saw with Marvels…). In running for biggest bomb of the year SUB-$100 (or are they?) Hide contents Notable films I won’t project to reach $100M, but something on this list is going to pop and shoot past that threshold Smile 2 $90M – should open higher than the first, but with weaker legs and finish around the same range Transformers One $80M – I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one closer to release Karate Kid $75M – down here almost entirely based on poor release date, but could have some potential Wicked Part 1 $70M - Hmm, could have sworn so many people lamented that having "part 1" in the title was a death sentence for a release? [In all seriousness, think this is being way overestimated, and Rent where its for fans mostly, less GA, but I could be missing the boat] Project Artemis [working title] $65M – are we going to see a rom-com resurgence? Ballerina $65M – sure, I guess? Argylle $60M – Pre-Super Bowl weekend is almost a cursed release date at this point, and I suspect a lot of disappointment when it opens Alto Knights $55M - don't think gangster films have the same theatrical appeal as they used to Alien Romulus $50M – another Fox property Disney seems to be dumping, now in August Trap $45M – next M. Night offering, little details, but starting with Old range for now I look forward to the totally rational discourse that will follow how about the LOTR anime? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 21 hours ago, wildphantom said: I still think Twisters is going to do really well. I think some here are going to be shocked. As someone who's fascinated by tornados I could see it doing really well if it doesn't suck. A lot of other disaster films aren't very realistic but tornados are something that hits a little closer to home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/6/2024 at 2:53 PM, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said: DP3 feels strangely difficult to pin down because of the uncertainty surrounding the genre at the moment. I have no doubt in my mind it will have a big opening but its total gross feels like something that is gonna boil down to response after that opening weekend. But the hype is there, So I’ll say for now a $115-125M DOM opening for that. $115-125M would be pretty bad for Deadpool 3 (in my opinion, or at least compared to what it could've done released in May 2022) but I actually agree with this range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) On 1/3/2024 at 2:34 AM, Bob Train said: DOMESTIC 1. Joker 2 (154/419) 2. Gladiator 2 (122/374) 3. Despic4ble Me (87/154/370) 4. Inside Out 2 (102/344) 5. Garfield (79/239m) 6. Sonic 3 (59/231m) 7. Beetlejuice 2 (101/231) 8. Deadpool 3 (109/229) 9. Wicked (54/81/203) 10. Horizon: Part One (52/201) WORLDWIDE 1. Joker 2 ($1.2b) 2. Gladiator 2 ($1.1b) 3. DM4 ($1b) 4. Inside Out 2 ($850m) 5. GxK ($700m) 6. Dune 2 ($650m) 7. Garfield ($600m) 8. Twisters ($550m) 9. Sonic 3 ($500m) 10. Wicked ($500m) $229M domestic total for Deadpool 3 would be beyond horrendous, Josstice League levels of bad Though, it's not completely off the table if it gets a B like. . .4 out of the last 6 Marvel films Edited January 21 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/7/2024 at 1:58 PM, Flip said: how about the LOTR anime? Hoping it’s Spider-verse 2.0. Gonna fly under the radar with a likely low-ish OW bc it’s animated and the franchise has been in a long slump. But maybe it will get great reviews and rally the fanbase in a way we haven’t seen since the trilogy to spectacular holiday legs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It looks like January 2024 will close around 475M, slightly better than expected. February, I would say 350M at the most, unless Argylle or Madame Web surprise. Argylle: 60-70M The Chosen: 25-30M Madame Web: 50-60M One Love: 30-35M Lisa Frankestein: 15-20M Drive Away Dolls: 10M Demos Slayer: 10M Ordinary Angels: 5M Rest of openers: 10M Oscar Expansions (Poor Things, American Fiction, Holdovers, Oppenheimer, Killers...): 30M Rest of holdovers: 50M (Wonka, Migration, Mean Girls, Anyone but you, Beekeeper...) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, stripe said: It looks like January 2024 will close around 475M, slightly better than expected. February, I would say 350M at the most, unless Argylle or Madame Web surprise. Argylle: 60-70M The Chosen: 25-30M Madame Web: 50-60M One Love: 30-35M Lisa Frankestein: 15-20M Drive Away Dolls: 10M Demos Slayer: 10M Ordinary Angels: 5M Rest of openers: 10M Oscar Expansions (Poor Things, American Fiction, Holdovers, Oppenheimer, Killers...): 30M Rest of holdovers: 50M (Wonka, Migration, Mean Girls, Anyone but you, Beekeeper...) March 1 could not come soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warmaster506 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Dune is going to explode. Hurry up lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Feb 360, not great bob. Incidentally Bob Marley saved the month by overperforming (at least by my own expectations). March I'll say about 650: 120 from holdovers 200 Dune 180 for the March 8th releases 40 for the March 15th releases 50 for the March 22nd releases, I'm not feeling much for ghostbusters, but I know many other are so we'll see. Godzilla and Kong manage to squeeze their OW into the month, maybe 50m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 February is finally over. 360m'ish gross for the month under 1996 February's box office. I was thinking March 2024 would match March 2023 but digging deeper into the numbers the holdovers from February are super weak but I think the smaller films like Cabrini, Arthur the King and Imaginary close the gap. I think March grosses 620m a little under March 2023 638m. Dune 180m Kung Fu Panda 100m Cabrini, Arthur the King and Imaginary 50m each. Ghostbusters 80m. Kong 60m. February holders 50m. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Arbitrary guesses Dune - $85/$225 Kung Fu Panda - $35/$110 Inside Out 2 - $135/$420 Deadpool 3 - $140/$360 Venom 3 - $60/$140 Mufasa - $40/$160 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Think March release grosses add up to low-mid 700s which is a nice increase but lack of holdovers and a little backloading means the calendar gross falls below 2023. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 On 1/22/2024 at 12:46 PM, stripe said: It looks like January 2024 will close around 475M, slightly better than expected. February, I would say 350M (IN THE END, 360M) at the most, unless Argylle or Madame Web surprise. Argylle: 60-70M - IN THE END, IT WILL REACH 43M The Chosen: 25-30M - IN THE END, IT WILL GROSS AROUND 25M Madame Web: 50-60M - NOT GOING TO REACH 38M One Love: 30-35M - OVER 75M IN FEBRUARY Lisa Frankestein: 15-20M - IN THE END, ALMOST 10M Drive Away Dolls: 10M - AWFUL LAUNCH, 3.5M IN FEBRUARY Demos Slayer: 10M - OVER 14M IN FEBRUARY, NOT BAD! Ordinary Angels: 5M - IN THE END, OVER 8M IN FEBRUARY Rest of openers: 10M - IN THE END, THEY GROSSED 15M, MORE OR LESS Oscar Expansions (Poor Things, American Fiction, Holdovers, Oppenheimer, Killers...): 30M QUITE OFF WITH THIS: IN THE END, A BIT UNDER 20M Rest of holdovers: 50M (Wonka, Migration, Mean Girls, Anyone but you, Beekeeper...) OVER 100M! THEY SAVED THE MONTH Bolded the final results of February. Looking at March, I would say 600-700M is the range. In 2023, the gross was around 640M. Openers (500-575M) Dune part 2: 180-190M Cabrini: 30-40M Imaginary: 35-45M Kung Fu Panda 4: 90-100M Arthur the King: 40-50M One Live: 5-10M Ghostbusters: 70-80M Godzilla x Kong: 40-50M Rest of openers: 10M Holdovers (100-120M) Bob Marley - 35-40M Ordinary Angels: 20M Madame web: 10M Chosen: 5-10M Oscar Expansions: 5-10M Rest: 20M 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 The closer we are to Dune 2, I am more confident it can confortably reach more than 300M DOM. 90M 1st weekend 35M rest of week 50M 2nd weekend 20M rest of week 35M 3rd weekend 14M rest of week 25M 4th weekend 10M rest of week 50M+ for rest of run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I’m really starting to think that the Lord of the Rings animated movies has a good shot of exploding. December is pretty empty except for that Lion King movie that I’m not so sure about. And given how so many people from the movies are returning behind the scenes there’s a good chance this could be good. Especially overseas, the potential is huge. Could see it over 500m WW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 hours ago, James said: I’m really starting to think that the Lord of the Rings animated movies has a good shot of exploding. December is pretty empty except for that Lion King movie that I’m not so sure about. And given how so many people from the movies are returning behind the scenes there’s a good chance this could be good. Um. Sonic 3? Karate Kid reboot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
