2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Asyulus]

 

On 5/14/2024 at 9:48 PM, Asyulus said:

My summer 2024 predictions:

 

Rank. Title | DOM | WW

 

1. Inside Out 2 | $580M DOM | $1.225B WW

2. Deadpool & Wolverine | $510M DOM | $1.13B WW

3. Despicable Me 4 | $230M DOM | $840M WW

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die | $180M DOM | $455M WW

5. The Garfield Movie | $130M DOM | $370M WW

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | $150M DOM | $365M WW

7. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | $130M DOM | $340M WW

8. IF | $110M DOM | $310M WW

9. A Quiet Place: Day One | $125M DOM | $280M WW

10. Trap | $80M DOM | $190M WW

11. Twisters | $70M DOM | $185M WW

12. The Fall Guy | $70M DOM | $150M WW

13. Alien: Romulus | $55M DOM | $135M WW

14. Fly Me to the Moon | $60M DOM | $120M WW

15. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 | $60M DOM | $105M WW

16. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2 | $55M DOM | $90M WW

17. It Ends with Us | $40M DOM | $85M WW

18. MaXXXine | $60M DOM | $80M WW

19. Borderlands | $35M DOM | $75M WW

20. The Crow | $30M DOM | $65M WW

Some of my tidbits:

• Inside Out 2 could pull an Incredibles 2 given its huge TikTok buzz and marketing, in addition to having a shot at #1 worldwide 2024. Even if its OW isn’t groundbreaker, legs and WOM will pull it way up similar to already divisive Elemental.
• I can see Despicable Me 4 dropping from Minions 2 given the latter had “Gentleminions” trend written over it and it is one of the franchises where the spin-offs gross more than main franchise installments. Also it will have a more restrained China box office which DM3 had benefited greatly. As much as its entertaining to watch, the franchise clearly has run through its course in terms of quality.
• I think Kevin Costner’s Horizon saga is getting massively over predicted here big time, especially because a 3-hour rated R western drama film with a more limited/niche demographic is an extremely tough sell for general audiences. Each installment will be lucky to hit a hundred million dollars worldwide. The reviews aren’t helping either.

Edited May 20 by Asyulus

[kayumanggi]

Two more movies from Lionsgate have been given a date.

 

09.13 THE KILLER'S GAME

10.18 FLIGHT RISK

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

Two more movies from Lionsgate have been given a date.

 

09.13 THE KILLER'S GAME

10.18 FLIGHT RISK

And maybe one of these will actually crack 20 m DM if they even put at least the barest minimum of marketing towards them.

[HummingLemon496]

@Asyulus you're one of the most accurate users on this entire forum but there is literally 0% chance IO2 comes anywhere close to your $580M DOM prediction

[Speedorito]

 

[AniNate]

“In today’s modern theatrical marketplace, the emphasis should shift from the short-term gain to the long-term playability, since this is now a game of yards instead of inches,” Dergarabedian says. “And the analysis of what constitutes a hit or a flop must be reevaluated.” 

 

Good luck convincing reddit and this forum of that

 

[Speedorito]

6 hours ago, AniNate said:

“In today’s modern theatrical marketplace, the emphasis should shift from the short-term gain to the long-term playability, since this is now a game of yards instead of inches,” Dergarabedian says. “And the analysis of what constitutes a hit or a flop must be reevaluated.” 

 

Good luck convincing reddit and this forum of that

 

That box office Reddit is like a meetup for people with brain damage. Literally the only sage advice people there can offer is “just make movies cheaper” and “just make them good.”

[AniNate]

I mean really the game has always been long term, it just doesn't make for as dramatic conversation as short term, easily quantified data like box office receipts on opening weekend. People fancy each box office run as like a sports match against its production budget (or in some cases, past franchise entries)

[JimmyB]

15 hours ago, Speedorito said:

That box office Reddit is like a meetup for people with brain damage. Literally the only sage advice people there can offer is “just make movies cheaper” and “just make them good.”

This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit.

[WittyUsername]

I don’t think theaters are going to back to how they were 30, 20 or even 10 years ago anytime soon. The pandemic and the rise of streaming were a game changer. 

[justnumbers]

15 hours ago, JimmyB said:

This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit.

The Beekeeper, Mean Girls, Bob Marley, Dune: Part 2, Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters, Godzilla X Kong, Civil War, Challengers, Kingdom Apes, and probably Garfield are all movies performing at the least solidly even if with some Asia problems. People are coming to the theaters if there's something they want to see. And don't even come with 55M budget for Challengers. Who gives. That movie doing over 80M is good. People were nice to Air for doing 90M on a 90M budget so...Please.

 

Obviously there's a Over budget issue too and there is a bigger issue in bringing audiences in for sure. Movies have a harder time being hits. But honestly...there hasn't been a Flop this year yet that has me "That doesn't make sense". May be disappointing but still. Even if Furiosa came in with +40M 4-day. Even if The Fall Guy came at 35M. They're extremely overbudgeted movies put on pedestals for the release dates they're in. Shame that Disney got scared and moved Apes out. And shame that Deadpool 3 had to move. 

 

But it is what it is. I'm glad all of this is happening now, in 2024. I had a bad feeling about 2024, specially 1st Half and it is panning out. I feel like all of these existential questions will be heavily neutered soon. 

Edited May 25 by justnumbers

[HummingLemon496]

18 hours ago, JimmyB said:

This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit.

Reddit is the best social media website of all time by a pretty significant margin so that's not a bad thing

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Reddit is the best social media website of all time by a pretty significant margin so that's not a bad thing

Are you sponsored by Reddit?

[Speedorito]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Reddit is the best social media website of all time

a) Talk about damming with faint praise. That’s like saying you’re an incredibly smart student because you got a D+ and the kid next to you got an F.

 

b) Lol no. Maybe if you’re a cringy teen I can see the massive appeal.

[poweranimals]

On 5/24/2024 at 4:27 PM, JimmyB said:

This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit.

There's no one solution but the theatrical windows needs to be like six months minimum. And they also need to stop charging an arm and a leg for movie tickets and concessions. The monthly subscriptions are a step in the right direction but they could probably make them more appealing or advertise them better.

[WorkingonaName]

17 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Reddit is the best social media website of all time by a pretty significant margin so that's not a bad thing

I was 15 once too.

[HummingLemon496]

Man, why is Box Office Theory so anti-Reddit these days?

Edited May 26 by HummingLemon496

[AniNate]

3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Man, why is Box Office Theory so anti-Reddit these days?

 

To be brutally frank, you are not someone who makes a very good case for them 

[Torontofan]

23 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Man, why is Box Office Theory so anti-Reddit these days?

 

I more hate reddit for its political bubbles lol 

[AnthonyJPHer]

Inside Out 2 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS -

Previous Update: 774 tickets

New Update: 787 tickets

Growth: 13 tickets (or 1.6% increase)

 

Some growth, not bad but I expect sales to increase steadily as we get closer to release day. I’m of the opinion that this won’t be presale heavy whatsoever. The presales are good enough to not be a disaster like Garfield, but not big enough to guarantee a 100m opening. I still like what I’m seeing though. As my local theater has finally shown some signs of life with this film. 5 tickets sold. Way better than Garfield at the same point.

 

FRIDAY - 

I think some of these seats are just blocked off so the numbers might not be completely accurate, but it’s looking extremely strong for Friday. 

 

900 tickets for the five theaters I track. Maybe even 1,286 tickets if my numbers are accurate. That tells me this is not front loaded whatsoever. Or at the very least not preview heavy.