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kayumanggi

2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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Posted (edited)

Summer 2023 has officially begun. Though we still have yet to see how the movies will perform this summer season, let us start the discussion on what movies do you think will dominate 2024. Do you have a lock to win the year? Will AVATAR III make its date and win the year yet again? Share your thoughts!

 

2024 RELEASE SCHEDULE*

 

January

05 | NIGHT SWIM

12 | BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE | EL MUERTO | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM | UNTITLED WARNER BROS. EVENT FILM

19 | THE TIGER'S APPRENTICE

26 |

 

February

02 | WISE GUYS

09 | UNTITLED DIRTY DANCING PROJECT | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL ANIMATED EVENT FILM

16 | MADAME WEB UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

23 | 

 

March

01 | ELIO | THE FALL GUY

08 | A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE | KUNG FU PANDA IV

15 | GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE

22 | SNOW WHITE UNTITLED UNIVERSAL ANIMATED EVENT FILM

29 | SPIDER-MAN: BEYOND THE SPIDER-VERSE UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILMMICKEY 17

 

April

05 | UNTITLED M. NIGHT SHYAMALAN THRILLER

12 | THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM

19 | UNTITLED MONSTER THRILLER

26 | 

 

May

03 | CAPTAIN AMERICA: NEW WORLD ORDER

10 | MY EX-FRIEND'S WEDDING UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

17 | 

24 | KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES | IF | GARFIELD FURIOSA

31 | 

 

June

07 | BALLERINA | KARATE KID THE WATCHERS

14 | INSIDE OUT II

21 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

28 | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING II HORRORSCOPE

 

July

05 | MUFASA: THE LION KING DESPICABLE ME IV

12 | UNTITLED SONY MARVEL FILM

19 | TRANSFORMERS ONE TWISTERS

26 | THUNDERBOLTS

 

August

02 | HAROLD AND THE PURPLE CRAYON | TRAP

09 | SPEAK NO EVIL

16 | UNTITLED DISNEY FILM

23 | UNTITLED KENDRICK BROTHERS FILM

30 | THEY LISTEN

 

September

06 | BLADE

13 | UNTITLED BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS FILM

20 | 

27 | UNTITLED MONKEYPAW HORROR FILM

 

October

04 | JOKER: FOLIE Á DEUX

11 | 

18 | UNTITLED BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS FILM

25 | 

 

November

01 | DEADPOOL III

08 | 

15 | 

22 | GLADIATOR II

29 | UNTITLED DISNEY ANIMATED FILM WICKED I

 

December

06 | 

13 | 

20 | AVATAR III

27 | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG III UNTITLED JORDAN PEELE FOURTH FILM

 

*wide releases only / dates are all Friday

 

***

 

RELEASE SCHEDULE BY MAJOR STUDIOS

 

DISNEY

03.01 | ELIO

03.22 | SNOW WHITE

05.03 | CAPTAIN AMERICA: NEW WORLD ORDER

05.24 | KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

06.14 | INSIDE OUT II

07.05 | MUFASA: THE LION KING

07.26 | THUNDERBOLTS

08.16 | UNTITLED DISNEY FILM

09.06 | BLADE

11.01 | DEADPOOL III

11.29 | UNTITLED DISNEY ANIMATED FILM

12.20 | AVATAR III

 

SONY

01.12 | EL MUERTO

02.16 | MADAME WEB

03.29 | SPIDER-MAN: BEYOND THE SPIDER-VERSE

05.10 | MY EX-FRIEND'S WEDDING

05.24 | GARFIELD

06.07 | KARATE KID

06.28 | HORRORSCOPE

07.12 | UNTITLED SONY MARVEL FILM

08.02 | HAROLD AND THE PURPLE CRAYON

08.23 | UNTITLED KENDRICK BROTHERS FILM

08.30 | THEY LISTEN

 

PARAMOUNT

01.12 | BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE

01.19 | THE TIGER'S APPRENTICE

03.08 | A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

05.24 | IF

06.28 | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING II

07.19 | TRANSFORMERS ONE

11.22 | GLADIATOR II

12.27 | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG III

 

UNIVERSAL

01.05 | NIGHT SWIM

01.12 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

02.09 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL ANIMATED EVENT FILM

02.16 UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

03.01 | THE FALL GUY

03.08 | KUNG FU PANDA IV

03.22 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL ANIMATED EVENT FILM

03.29 UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

04.05 | UNTITLED M. NIGHT SHYAMALAN THRILLER

04.19 | UNTITLED MONSTER THRILLER

05.10 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

06.21 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

07.05 | DESPICABLE ME IV

07.19 | TWISTERS

08.09 | SPEAK NO EVIL

09.13 | UNTITLED BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS FILM

09.27 | UNTITLED MONKEYPAW HORROR FILM

10.18 | UNTITLED BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS FILM

11.29 WICKED I

12.27 UNTITLED JORDAN PEELE FOURTH FILM

 

WARNER BROS.

01.12 | UNTITLED WARNER BROS. EVENT FILM

02.02 | WISE GUYS

03.15 | GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE

03.29 MICKEY 17

04.12 | THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM

05.24 | FURIOSA

06.07 | THE WATCHERS

08.02 | TRAP

10.04 | JOKER: FOLIE Á DEUX

 

LIONSGATE

02.09 | UNTITLED DIRTY DANCING PROJECT

06.07 | BALLERINA

 

*wide releases only / dates are all Friday

Edited by kayumanggi
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Posted (edited)

Going to refrain from the list but do think we’ll see some changes. A handful of films still in production this year or rated but not released will end up going here (Aquaman 2, Ghostbusters 4?, Harold and the Purple Crayon, Coyote vs Acme, Fixed, etc).

 

Avatar 3 is winning the year no contest but number two spot can be interesting. If either Across or Dead Reckoning 1 breaks out to 300m domestic, I think part two for both could take the number two spot. Deadpool and Wolverine is a good choice though I wonder if the MCU fatigue going on will correct itself by the time it opens. I can buy Despicable Me 4 being a nostalgia requel in which Vector returns from the moon with an army and a senior Gru and Lucy, the minions, and his young adult daughters face him off. Inside Out 2 could very well be the big return for Disney/Pixar especially if TLM, Elemental and Wish turn out to be hits.

 

Lots of room for potential breakouts too. Both Elio and IF sound like family film original smash hits. I think KFP4 has a strong chance at 200m domestic if it moves. Cap 4 should do over 200m as well but 250m+ can happen. Gladiator 2, Apes and Furiosa have potential as does Snow White, Mickey7, and Godzilla and Kong. Lion King 2 I think will have a big fall though. Joker 2 is another question is I’m not sure if the musical angle can sell. Thunderbolts and Blade with the strike I think would be better off moving to 2025 or later because those two will need quality to thrive.

Edited by YM!
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Posted (edited)

Part of me thinks that we could see Sony switching up the slate if necessary to something like this:

2/16 - Harold and the Purple Crayon

3/27 - Ghostbusters 4

5/24, 5/31 or 6/7 - Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse if Across breaks out 

7/12 - Madame Web

11/1 or Christmas (doubting Sonic 3 stays for Christmas next year) - Garfield

Edited by YM!
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My early prediction domestically is:

 

Over $500M:

Avatar 3 (also over $600M)

 

Over $400M:

Inside Out 2

Deadpool 3

 

Over $300M:

Mission Impossible 8

Beyond the Spider-Verse

Mufasa: The Lion King

Despicable Me 4

 

Over $200M:

Joker 2

Snow White

Captain America: New World Order

Sonic 3

Blade

Elio if it or KP4 moves (trusting on good WOM for this one)

 

Over $150M:

Kung Fu Panda 4

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

The Karate Kid

Transformers One

Thunderbolts

 

 

 

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There's zero chances of The Karate Kid coming out next year, correct? Zero information on who is writing or directing, let alone being casted for the film. Won't be surprised if it never ever gets released. 

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1 hour ago, Mickiland16 said:

My early prediction domestically is:

 

Over $500M:

Avatar 3 (also over $600M)

 

Over $400M:

Inside Out 2

Deadpool 3

 

Over $300M:

Mission Impossible 8

Beyond the Spider-Verse

Mufasa: The Lion King

Despicable Me 4

 

Over $200M:

Joker 2

Snow White

Captain America: New World Order

Sonic 3

Blade

Elio if it or KP4 moves (trusting on good WOM for this one)

 

Over $150M:

Kung Fu Panda 4

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

The Karate Kid

Transformers One

Thunderbolts

 

 

 

 

Very interesting. Those two get released on the same weekend.

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7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Very interesting. Those two get released on the same weekend.

I'm expecting one of them to move since both targets a similar or basically the same audience, don't think Disney nor Universal is that arrogant when none of both is really a small movie. 

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7 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

I'm expecting one of them to move since both targets a similar or basically the same audience, don't think Disney nor Universal is that arrogant when none of both is really a small movie. 

 

Not sure if Universal will move. That has always been DESPICABLE ME movies' spot. I also don't know where MUFASA should go considering that Disney has already taken hold of the most important dates. Maybe move it to December, but that also means AVATAR III and the STAR WARS movies getting delayed.

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Does not seem as strong of a year as 2023, but that being said 2022 didn't seem as strong on paper as I thought it would be, and it ended up having some of the biggest domestic grosses of all time, so who knows?

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Hot take - Deadpool III outgrosses either of the next two Avengers movies or any Phase Whatever This Is MCU movie. I think it's much more sellable of a concept outside the fatigue these movies have generally.

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8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hot take - Deadpool III outgrosses either of the next two Avengers movies or any Phase Whatever This Is MCU movie. I think it's much more sellable of a concept outside the fatigue these movies have generally.

Domestically maybe, OS nah. Think the Avengers name still carries a 1B WW minimum.

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Joker 2 seems like the next Wakanda Forever/The Marvels/Spider-Man 2. I think the musical aspect may be a turnoff for the main demographic at hand and in addition to that, the first hit a zeitgeist in a way that’s hard to replicate. I think upper 200s domestic and 750-800m worldwide

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The WGA strike can change dramatically this schedule.

Avatar 3 should easily win the year, unless something explodes like crazy.

I can see surprises from Twisters (possible return of catastrophe genre?) and If (Krasinski with stellar cast).

 

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31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hot take - Deadpool III outgrosses either of the next two Avengers movies or any Phase Whatever This Is MCU movie. I think it's much more sellable of a concept outside the fatigue these movies have generally.

Hotter take - Joker 2 is the second-biggest movie of the year, only behind Avatar. It does have an uphill battle with superhero fatigue and the lack of novelty and moral panic hype, but it's also being offset by having one of the biggest movie stars front and center as Harley Quinn, you know Gaga's got some bangers, and I think the musical angle could actually breathe some life to the stagnant genre. As long as it delivers the same goods as the first (well, maybe not "goods", but has the stuff people inexplicably liked in that first movie), we could see something special.

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Posted (edited)

I'm thinking something along the lines of...

 

#1. Avatar 3

#2. Deadpool 3

#3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part 2

#4. Joker 2

#5. Sonic 3

#6. Despicable Me 4

#7. Musafa

#8. Godzilla vs Kong 2

#9.Thunderbolts

#10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

#11. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse

#12. Captain American 4

#13. Blade

#14. Snow White

#15. Furiousa

Edited by poweranimals
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