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kayumanggi

2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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Summer 2023 has officially begun. Though we still have yet to see how the movies will perform this summer season, let us start the discussion on what movies do you think will dominate 2024. Do you have a lock to win the year? Will AVATAR III make its date and win the year yet again? Share your thoughts!

 

2024 RELEASE SCHEDULE*

 

January

05 | NIGHT SWIM

12 | MEAN GIRLS | THE BOOK OF CLARENCE | THE BEEKEPER

19 | I.S.S.

26 |

 

February

02 | ARGYLLE

09 | LISA FRANKENSTEIN

16 | BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE MADAME WEB

23 | ORDINARY ANGELS DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA -TO THE HASHIRA TRAINING DRIVE-AWAY DOLLS

 

March

01 | DUNE II

08 | IMAGINARY | KUNG FU PANDA IV CABRINI

15 | ARTHUR THE KING

22 | GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE IMMACULATE

29 | GODZILLA × KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE

 

April

05 | THE FIRST OMEN MONKEY MAN

12 | CIVIL WAR

19 | THE MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE ABIGAIL SPY × FAMILY CODE: WHITE

26 | UNSUNG HERO CHALLENGERS

 

May

03 | THE FALL GUY

10 | KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES | TAROT

17 | THE STRANGERS I IF BACK TO BLACK

24 | GARFIELD FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA

31 | 

 

June

07 | BALLERINA THE WATCHERS

14 | INSIDE OUT II BAD BOYS IV

21 | IT ENDS WITH US THE BIKERIDERS

28 | A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE | HORIZON: AN AMERICAN SAGA I

 

July

05 DESPICABLE ME IV

12 | UNTITLED JOHANSSON/TATUM ROMCOM

19 TWISTERS

26 | DEADPOOL III

 

August

02 | HAROLD AND THE PURPLE CRAYON | TRAP

09 | BORDERLANDS | FLINT STRONG

16 | ALIEN: ROMULUS | HORIZON: AN AMERICAN SAGA II

23 | THE FORGE BLINK TWICE

30 | KRAVEN THE HUNTER

 

September

06 | BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE

13 | TRANSFORMERS ONE SPEAK NO EVIL

20 | WOLFS | THE WILD ROBOT

27 | SAW XI

 

October

04 | WHITE BIRD JOKER: FOLIE Á DEUX

11 | PIECE BY PIECE

18 | SMILE II

25 | THE WOLF MAN

 

November

01 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

08 | THE AMATEUR VENOM III

15 | THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER ALTO KNIGHTS RED ONE

22 | GLADIATOR II

29 | MOANA II WICKED I

 

December

06 | 

13 | KARATE KID THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM

20 | MUFASA: THE LION KING SONIC THE HEDGEHOG III

27 | NOSFERATU

 

*wide releases only / dates are all Friday

 

***

 

RELEASE SCHEDULE BY MAJOR STUDIOS

 

DISNEY

04.05 THE FIRST OMEN

05.10 KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

06.14 INSIDE OUT II

07.26 DEADPOOL III

08.16 ALIEN: ROMULUS

11.08 THE AMATEUR

11.29 MOANA II

12.20 MUFASA: THE LION KING

 

LIONSGATE

02.23 ORDINARY ANGELS

03.08 IMAGINARY

03.15 ARTHUR THE KING

04.19 THE MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE

04.26 UNSUNG HERO

05.17 THE STRANGERS I

06.07 BALLERINA

08.09 BORDERLANDS

09.27 SAW XI

10.04 WHITE BIRD

11.15 THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER

 

PARAMOUNT

01.12 MEAN GIRLS

02.16 BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE

05.17 IF

06.28 A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

09.13 TRANSFORMERS ONE

10.18 SMILE II

11.22 GLADIATOR II

12.20 SONIC THE HEDGEHOG III

 

SONY

01.12 THE BOOK OF CLARENCE

02.16 MADAME WEB

02.23 DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA -TO THE HASHIRA TRAINING

03.22 GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE

05.10 TAROT

05.24 GARFIELD

06.14 BAD BOYS IV

06.21 IT ENDS WITH US

07.12 UNTITLED JOHANSSON/TATUM ROMCOM

08.02 HAROLD AND THE PURPLE CRAYON

08.23 THE FORGE

08.30 KRAVEN THE HUNTER

09.20 WOLFS

11.08 VENOM III

12.13 KARATE KID

 

UNIVERSAL

01.05 NIGHT SWIM

02.02 ARGYLLE

02.09 LISA FRANKENSTEIN

02.23 DRIVE-AWAY DOLLS

03.08 KUNG FU PANDA IV

04.05 MONKEY MAN

04.19 ABIGAIL

05.03 THE FALL GUY

05.17 BACK TO BLACK

06.21 THE BIKERIDERS

07.05 DESPICABLE ME IV

07.19 TWISTERS

09.13 SPEAK NO EVIL

09.20 THE WILD ROBOT

10.11 PIECE BY PIECE

10.25 THE WOLF MAN

11.01 UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

11.29 WICKED I

12.27 NOSFERATU

 

WARNER BROS.

03.01 DUNE II

03.29 GODZILLA × KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE

05.24 FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA

06.07 THE WATCHERS

06.28 HORIZON: AN AMERICAN SAGA I

08.02 TRAP
08.16 HORIZON: AN AMERICAN SAGA II

09.06 BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE

10.04 JOKER: FOLIE Á DEUX

11.15 ALTO KNIGHTS

12.13 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM

 

OTHER STUDIOS

01.12 THE BEEKEPER

01.19 I.S.S.

03.08 CABRINI

03.22 IMMACULATE

04.12 CIVIL WAR

04.19 SPY × FAMILY CODE: WHITE

04.26 CHALLENGERS

08.09 FLINT STRONG

08.23 BLINK TWICE

11.15 RED ONE

 

*wide releases only / dates are all Friday

Edited by kayumanggi
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Going to refrain from the list but do think we’ll see some changes. A handful of films still in production this year or rated but not released will end up going here (Aquaman 2, Ghostbusters 4?, Harold and the Purple Crayon, Coyote vs Acme, Fixed, etc).

 

Avatar 3 is winning the year no contest but number two spot can be interesting. If either Across or Dead Reckoning 1 breaks out to 300m domestic, I think part two for both could take the number two spot. Deadpool and Wolverine is a good choice though I wonder if the MCU fatigue going on will correct itself by the time it opens. I can buy Despicable Me 4 being a nostalgia requel in which Vector returns from the moon with an army and a senior Gru and Lucy, the minions, and his young adult daughters face him off. Inside Out 2 could very well be the big return for Disney/Pixar especially if TLM, Elemental and Wish turn out to be hits.

 

Lots of room for potential breakouts too. Both Elio and IF sound like family film original smash hits. I think KFP4 has a strong chance at 200m domestic if it moves. Cap 4 should do over 200m as well but 250m+ can happen. Gladiator 2, Apes and Furiosa have potential as does Snow White, Mickey7, and Godzilla and Kong. Lion King 2 I think will have a big fall though. Joker 2 is another question is I’m not sure if the musical angle can sell. Thunderbolts and Blade with the strike I think would be better off moving to 2025 or later because those two will need quality to thrive.

Edited by YM!
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Part of me thinks that we could see Sony switching up the slate if necessary to something like this:

2/16 - Harold and the Purple Crayon

3/27 - Ghostbusters 4

5/24, 5/31 or 6/7 - Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse if Across breaks out 

7/12 - Madame Web

11/1 or Christmas (doubting Sonic 3 stays for Christmas next year) - Garfield

Edited by YM!
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My early prediction domestically is:

 

Over $500M:

Avatar 3 (also over $600M)

 

Over $400M:

Inside Out 2

Deadpool 3

 

Over $300M:

Mission Impossible 8

Beyond the Spider-Verse

Mufasa: The Lion King

Despicable Me 4

 

Over $200M:

Joker 2

Snow White

Captain America: New World Order

Sonic 3

Blade

Elio if it or KP4 moves (trusting on good WOM for this one)

 

Over $150M:

Kung Fu Panda 4

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

The Karate Kid

Transformers One

Thunderbolts

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mickiland16 said:

My early prediction domestically is:

 

Over $500M:

Avatar 3 (also over $600M)

 

Over $400M:

Inside Out 2

Deadpool 3

 

Over $300M:

Mission Impossible 8

Beyond the Spider-Verse

Mufasa: The Lion King

Despicable Me 4

 

Over $200M:

Joker 2

Snow White

Captain America: New World Order

Sonic 3

Blade

Elio if it or KP4 moves (trusting on good WOM for this one)

 

Over $150M:

Kung Fu Panda 4

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

The Karate Kid

Transformers One

Thunderbolts

 

 

 

 

Very interesting. Those two get released on the same weekend.

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7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Very interesting. Those two get released on the same weekend.

I'm expecting one of them to move since both targets a similar or basically the same audience, don't think Disney nor Universal is that arrogant when none of both is really a small movie. 

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7 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

I'm expecting one of them to move since both targets a similar or basically the same audience, don't think Disney nor Universal is that arrogant when none of both is really a small movie. 

 

Not sure if Universal will move. That has always been DESPICABLE ME movies' spot. I also don't know where MUFASA should go considering that Disney has already taken hold of the most important dates. Maybe move it to December, but that also means AVATAR III and the STAR WARS movies getting delayed.

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Does not seem as strong of a year as 2023, but that being said 2022 didn't seem as strong on paper as I thought it would be, and it ended up having some of the biggest domestic grosses of all time, so who knows?

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Hot take - Deadpool III outgrosses either of the next two Avengers movies or any Phase Whatever This Is MCU movie. I think it's much more sellable of a concept outside the fatigue these movies have generally.

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8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hot take - Deadpool III outgrosses either of the next two Avengers movies or any Phase Whatever This Is MCU movie. I think it's much more sellable of a concept outside the fatigue these movies have generally.

Domestically maybe, OS nah. Think the Avengers name still carries a 1B WW minimum.

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Joker 2 seems like the next Wakanda Forever/The Marvels/Spider-Man 2. I think the musical aspect may be a turnoff for the main demographic at hand and in addition to that, the first hit a zeitgeist in a way that’s hard to replicate. I think upper 200s domestic and 750-800m worldwide

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The WGA strike can change dramatically this schedule.

Avatar 3 should easily win the year, unless something explodes like crazy.

I can see surprises from Twisters (possible return of catastrophe genre?) and If (Krasinski with stellar cast).

 

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31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hot take - Deadpool III outgrosses either of the next two Avengers movies or any Phase Whatever This Is MCU movie. I think it's much more sellable of a concept outside the fatigue these movies have generally.

Hotter take - Joker 2 is the second-biggest movie of the year, only behind Avatar. It does have an uphill battle with superhero fatigue and the lack of novelty and moral panic hype, but it's also being offset by having one of the biggest movie stars front and center as Harley Quinn, you know Gaga's got some bangers, and I think the musical angle could actually breathe some life to the stagnant genre. As long as it delivers the same goods as the first (well, maybe not "goods", but has the stuff people inexplicably liked in that first movie), we could see something special.

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I'm thinking something along the lines of...

 

#1. Avatar 3

#2. Deadpool 3

#3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part 2

#4. Joker 2

#5. Sonic 3

#6. Despicable Me 4

#7. Musafa

#8. Godzilla vs Kong 2

#9.Thunderbolts

#10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

#11. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse

#12. Captain American 4

#13. Blade

#14. Snow White

#15. Furiousa

Edited by poweranimals
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