Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[BluKyberCrystal]

3 hours ago, McNerdy said:

Agree. However, it was just announced that it’s hitting digital platforms on July 11 (Spiderverse on July 18) so that might impact its legs…

 

On another note, I’m disappointed so many huge movies are releasing in such a short time. Would have loved to see Transformers, Fast X, and Indiana Jones in cinemas, but I already saw the little mermaid twice and I don’t have *that* much money (I’m willing to bet I’m not the only one, so why did the studios do this?).

One of the creators says no.

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

24 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

One of the creators says no.

 

 

Thank heavens. This was bullshit and such a bummer for such an well made film, it deserves a lengthy box office run.

[AJG]

34 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

One of the creators says no.

 

 

It’s being listed for some kind of Digital release (rental or to own) on the 17th of July. Something probably changed.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Hoping for some nice weekday holds for spidey this week now that the PLF loss has been baked in (and it might reclaim some) and kids are off school. If it can make big dough before the bloodbath next weekend then the path to $400m will be clear.

AtSV is reclaiming some PLFs even with Flash and Elemental out this Thursday? Doesn't seem likely unless I'm not understanding how PLFs work with new releases. Certainly isn't regaining PLFs in the Pittsburgh area from what I can tell... Just outright losing any it had left starting Thursday afternoon.

[excel1]

Jennifer Lawrence, the solo actress, was the most 'forced on us' "star" in a while (maybe since

Spoiler

Josh Hartnett

) and was never, ever a true draw on her own. I did like her in a number of roles, but far too many in the media overestimated her actual popularity with audiences/ Numerous films 2015 onward proved this. Add in a prolonged acting break?

 

Why would anyone expect No Hard Feelings to do anything more than $8-10m opening weekend?

[excel1]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Historically, this generally also means something is about to majorly overperform - either with exceptionally prolonged box office legs or random unforeseen opening weekend blow ups.

 

• The Flash word of mouth looks like it will be quite good - maybe we are about to see a well above average multiple. 
• Barbie online buzz has been immense, maybe we see a dramatic overperformance. 
• Mission Impossible may about to have their own 'Skyfall' type of eruption.

 

One could of course argue this is already happening with Spiderverse and Mario before it. 

 

I am old enough to remember when Pirates 2003 was the consensus bomb of the summer- until audiences saw that damn thing. Transformers 2007 was the consensus bomb of the summer - until the main trailer was released. Iron Man was a d-list character starring a washed up drug addict competing in a summer against Batman vs. Joker, Indiana Jones return, and Will Smith as a superhero - $50M opening would be strong.

 

The moviegoer markets doesn't just vanish, interest will shift to something else...

Edited June 13, 2023 by excel1

[Joyous Legion]

On 6/11/2023 at 8:16 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

But really we know that the other 9 movies barely matter in the face of all important Kandahar

Hell yeah baby, thank you Kandahar 🤣

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Historically, this generally also means something is about to majorly overperform - either with exceptionally prolonged box office legs or random unforeseen opening weekend blow ups.

 

• The Flash word of mouth looks like it will be quite good - maybe we are about to see a well above average multiple. 
• Barbie online buzz has been immense, maybe we see a dramatic overperformance. 
• Mission Impossible may about to have their own 'Skyfall' type of eruption.

 

The moviegoer markets doesn't just vanish, interest will shift to something else...

Also I feel Indiana Jones will  be fine if the general regular critics continue to be more positive than the snooty critics at Cannes. That should be enough for the older casual walkup moviegoers to get off the fence on what will be a 5 day extended weekend for a lot of people. As for the Flash maybe there is just too much baggage to overcome in the end. Of course all this doom and gloom is happening right after Transformers proved how worthless tracking and presales can be sometimes. 

[excel1]

The box office historian in me hates that previews have moved from true midnights to showings starting at 3 PM Thursday .

 

Its crap for historical comps and the feelings of electricity among the hardcore mega fans is just killed. Waiting in line for films like Matrix Reloaded, Sith, The Dark Knight at midnight was like waiting in line for the super bowl. 

[MotionPictured]

22 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Jennifer Lawrence, the solo actress, was the most 'forced on us' "star" in a while (maybe since

  Reveal hidden contents

Josh Hartnett

) and was never, ever a true draw on her own. I did like her in a number of roles, but far too many in the media overestimated her actual popularity with audiences/ Numerous films 2015 onward proved this. Add in a prolonged acting break?

 

Why would anyone expect No Hard Feelings to do anything more than $8-10m opening weekend?

This is false. I checked it out. Joy made $100m. Red Sparrow made $150m. Silver Linings made $240m. American Hustle made $250m. Passengers made $300m. That IS a draw. Why else did those non-IP, non-franchise films make hundreds of millions of dollars if not for Jennifer Lawrence?

 

Bradley Cooper's Burnt couldn't even crack $40m.

 

No Hard Feelings may open small but the real test is if it legs out, because all of the films I listed had major legs. If it opens small and doesn't leg out, then it means Jennifer Lawrence lost her drawing power. But she did have major bankability a few years ago.

 

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, MotionPictured said:

This is false. I checked it out. Joy made $100m.

 

Well known disappointment.  That is the goal figure. 

 

3 minutes ago, MotionPictured said:

 

Red Sparrow made $150m.

 

 

Well known flop. That is the global figure. 

 

3 minutes ago, MotionPictured said:

Silver Linings made $240m.

 

She is great in the film but stars with Bradley Cooper, and this is from 2012. I wrote 2015 onward. 

 

3 minutes ago, MotionPictured said:

American Hustle made $250m.

 

LOL shared with Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, and Amy Adams. Lawrence is barely in this movie. 

 

3 minutes ago, MotionPictured said:

Passengers made $300m.

 

Well known box office disappointment and she costarred with red hot Chris Pratt.

 

3 minutes ago, MotionPictured said:

That IS a draw. WNo Hard Feelings may open small but the real test is if it legs out, because all of the films I listed had major legs. If it opens small and doesn't leg out, then it means Jennifer Lawrence lost her drawing power. But she did have major bankability a few years ago.

 

No, she had above average name recognition and that is long gone. No Hard Feelings is an obvious flop.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Rise of The Beasts was trending upwards at this point in time. We were seeing shifts in its performance that indicated last minute interest and then the Thursday of we were seeing those walk-ups in action. Before the weekend everyone was pretty set on it opening in the 50s being a genuine possibility, and then it overperformed by 5-6 million. Let's say Flash does that, if we're thinking 65 that only puts it in 70/71. If we're thinking 70/71 that puts its in 75/76. If we're thinking 75 that puts it in 80/81. None of these numbers are good, just various degrees of bad and that's just ignoring how the tracking is not suggesting this.

And I acknowledged that by saying the Flash may have too much baggage in the end to overcome.Nothing rules out  though  there being a lot of walkups on thursday combined with good wom and a holiday weekend with two holidays to save a little face.  it may be unlikely but still possible. let me type out your likely response to this- The trendline does not show this likely happening.  Got it. 

[CJohn]

34 minutes ago, AJG said:

Is the Ruby Gillman number low enough for you people to finally accept there isn’t a ‘Disney+ is hurting BO’ problem it’s just that original animation is dead (and nobody should be spending $200m to produce it)?

Lmao you fool. Original movies in general are dead. Not just animation.

[ZattMurdock]

19 minutes ago, excel1 said:

The box office historian in me hates that previews have moved from true midnights to showings starting at 3 PM Thursday .

 

Its crap for historical comps and the feelings of electricity among the hardcore mega fans is just killed. Waiting in line for films like Matrix Reloaded, Sith, The Dark Knight at midnight was like waiting in line for the super bowl. 

If I’m remembering correctly, this was changed due to covid, despite some animation films doing it before even covid was a thing. With the ending of the pandemic, I see no reason why we can’t have the midnights back. I understand it sucks to movie theater employees, but I agree that there were something truly magical about midnight premieres. I think it’s time to bring them back.

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

If I’m remembering correctly, this was changed due to covid,

 

Nah this changed after the Aurora, Colorado incident during TDKR previews. It's definitely never changing back and if anything will only get earlier. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

If I’m remembering correctly, this was changed due to covid, despite some animation films doing it before even covid was a thing. With the ending of the pandemic, I see no reason why we can’t have the midnights back. I understand it sucks to movie theater employees, but I agree that there were something truly magical about midnight premieres. I think it’s time to bring them back.

Midnights have been dead since Dark Knight Rises in the US. They were being phased out after this and then by 2014 earlier Thursday night showings began and they've been getting earlier and earlier. The only 'true' Midnights left are for Wednesday releases like Spider-Man: Far From Home & Mario.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

 

Nah this changed after the Aurora, Colorado incident during TDKR previews. It's definitely never changing back and if anything will only get earlier. 

Here in Brazil we still got some afterwards. Yeah I was here on the boards when that happened and it was fucking tragic. Understandable.

[PenguinHyphy]

1 hour ago, Eric Prime said:

 

 

The Flash is supposed to be the story, but the Jennifer Lawrence opening to $10,000,000 is astonishing. The trailers are absolutely insufferable, but isn't star power supposed to be a thing still? 

[excel1]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

 

The Flash is supposed to be the story, but the Jennifer Lawrence opening to $10,000,000 is astonishing. The trailers are absolutely insufferable, but isn't star power supposed to be a thing still? 

 

See the posts above all the posts seemingly moved or deleted noting her exaggerated star power has long since vanished.

 

Don't be surprised when that is a huge flop. 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

See the posts above all the posts seemingly moved or deleted noting her exaggerated star power has long since vanished.

 

Don't be surprised when that is a huge flop. 

 

Moved to the Weekend Thread because this isn't the "discuss J-Laws star power" thread.