Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[Shawn Robbins]

TF: ROTB: 5.25 official est.

 

[Starphanluke]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

TF: ROTB: 5.25 official est.

 

Ouch

[Justin4125]

44 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

"Best phase 4 movie"  is kind of like "best rash" or "best headache".

 

No Way Home, Shang Chi, and Wakanda Forever were all phase 4 films. If those are rashes or headaches, what does that make movies like Flash or Black Adam? Sure Quantumania and Eternals were what they were, but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater

[MightyDargon]

13 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Are you really trying to compare Transformers and let alone Flash with Indiana fucking Jones? Yeah I’m stanning Indy. And I sincerely hope the GA will be too, soon enough. There is still time to catch on.

Were you not an 80s kid? Transformers was as much loved by them as Indy was. 

[Spidey Freak]

35 minutes ago, cookie said:

If you start the clock at NWH there's been five $1b films in 1 1/2 years. 2022 has three billion-grossers and would've had 4 if Doctor Strange 2 got a China release. Same timespan between July 2018 and December 2019 produced 10 $1b films. Obviously nowhere near it still, but going the full 3 1/2 year timespan is going to be misleading since nothing was making $1b when large parts of the world were under lockdown.

 

And TBH most of those 10 billion grossers in 2018-2019 came from peak corporate Disney pumping out the climax of their Phase 3 movies, live action remakes of their biggest Renaissance films, sequels to their biggest Pixar and WDAS franchises and the close of their new SW trilogy. Pandemic or no, there was going to be a drop in billion dollar grossers after that timeframe where Disney used almost all of its biggest guns at once.

 

The 5 billion grossers from 2021-2023 have been much more evenly spread between studios and at least 2 of them (TGM and Mario) were unexpected breakouts. I dunno, culturally I feel we're at a better place right now when the market isn't so monopolized by a single company that bought out all the biggest IPs.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

Were you not an 80s kid? Transformers was as much loved by them as Indy was. 

Yes and nah.

[MightyDargon]

14 minutes ago, Shawn said:

TF: ROTB: 5.25 official est.

 

The touchdown dances at the OW might have been slightly premature. (Also the longtime fans that I talked with weren't terribly happy about the lack of focus on the beast-type Transformers and thought it had misleading marketing.)

[MightyDargon]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

Yes and nah.

Yeah, your opinion is BS. I was there in the 80s. Transformers were VERY popular. Hell even Beast Wars was quite popular in the 90s (not that the current movie really lived up to what you could do with the nostalgia for it).

[M37]

17 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Looking at the demos - women refused to watch the lead.  I've never seen a supers movie split 76-24 - that's an INSANE rejection by 2 demos.  

 

Nothing more needs to be said if this comes in under Transformers...

Following up on this, I mentioned in the tracking thread the other day that the sales pattern for Flash - both in overall trajectory and additional nuance in a local spot check - was a little weird, and I had a theory as to what was happening “under the hood”. Namely, that while the fans were still buying early and walk-ups were fine to good, a chunk of the typical middle ground audience - frequent but not really fans - one would expect for a release like this was somewhat missing, likely due to some combination of Erza’a issues and the impending DC reboot 

 

The fact that at least half of the reviews mentioned those issue in some form may have helped turn off as many people - largely women - as the overall decent RT score may have drawn GA folks in off the fence, at least for Thursday. But then the heavily skewed male/fan heavy audience were not impressed, and poor WOM dragged down potential even further from an already limited audience pool 

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, MightyDargon said:

Yeah, your opinion is BS. I was there in the 80s. Transformers were VERY popular. Hell even Beast Wars was quite popular in the 90s (not that the current movie really lived up to what you could do with the nostalgia for it).

Dude, you are trying to compare Indiana Jones with Transformers. It’s simply not the same thing.

[Johnny Tran]

40 minutes ago, martin said:

OMG 71 pages without a true OD yet and most talking about Marvel. I just can't....

 

I said it before as a neutral bystander that this thread would bring out both the DC fanboys/Snyder fanboys to conduct their civil war as well as the MCU fanboys would need something to smile about after Thor and Ant-Man were garbage and Guardians being good but only because of James Gunn who is leaving.  

 

And it looks like everyone is right on time.   

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

Dude, you are trying to compare Indiana Jones with Transformers. It’s simply not the same thing.

Yes, I am. They were/are both popular series for 80s/90s kids that suffer somewhat once you get into the 00s because different youth demo. Youth demo now wants Spiderverse because Miles is their hero.

[grey ghost]

Me triyng to keep up with this thread...

 

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by grey ghost

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Yes, I am. They were/are both popular series for 80s/90s kids that suffer somewhat once you get into the 00s because different youth demo. Youth demo now wants Spiderverse because Miles is their hero.

Ok, check back 12 days from now.

[WrathOfHan]

LAWD these Asteroid City numbers. It's going to opening within 70-80% of French Dispatch's OW despite nearly 50 fewer theaters. My audience last night enjoyed it, so WOM will hopefully be strong enough leading into wide next weekend.

[MightyDargon]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

Ok, check back 12 days from now.

I mean people were saying Dial of Destiny was "going fresh" at 55 percent reviews. There's a LOT of wishful thinking attached to this one.

To be fair, there also was for Transformers following the opening weekend.

[Johnny Tran]

Everyone wants to focus on the studio and Ezra Miller's issues but let's be serious,  the biggest reason why The Flash is underperforming is because they told you months ago that Shazam 2,  The Flash and Aquaman 2 are lame duck movies.  

 

I don't think they had a choice either.  If you are going to reboot then you need to announce that you are going to reboot.  But it killed off a lot of interest in the projects that were already in the can.  

 

People want to get their narratives in,  everyone has an agenda, etc. but that's the biggest reason.  People rightly think that these movies don't matter.  

 

Aquaman 2 is mostly by itself around the holidays and will probably get more women viewers so it could be "ok" but it's going to drop severely from the first one.  There's no doubt about that. 

[WorkingonaName]

Transformers numbers sounds about right for Indy, a bit higher domestically. Both franchises past their peak and without the people that made them big in the first place. 

[Johnny Tran]

I don't know why people think 70-year olds are going to cram the theaters for Indy.  I just don't see it. This isn't Top Gun.  It has nothing going for it,  sounds like it's a fairly average movie at best.  I think it's DOA.  

 

Barbie is not going to break out either.  DOA. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Blackening: $2.55m Fri official (with previews)