redfirebird2008 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Just now, keysersoze123 said: Amazing for both the movies. @across the Jat verse are you still believing in max 250m for Oppy? He said it could go to $300M, but $250M was more realistic ending point. Maybe in between at $275M is a solid landing spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: $12M is a hell of a lot better for Oppy. That means Tuesday is around 45% of Saturday. Very similar to Inception. Great 👍👍 Oppenheimer’s second weekend if it follows other Nolan films TDK: $39.1m (-52.5%) Inception: $56m (-32%) TDKR: $31.8m (-61.4%) Interstellar: $49.1m (-40.4%) Dunkirk: $43.4m (-47.3%) Interstellar probably should have been excluded since it was a totally different time of year, and I didn’t bother with Tenet or anything pre-TDK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 @M37 pls tell me Oppy still going 330+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: He said it could go to $300M, but $250M was more realistic ending point. Maybe in between at $275M is a solid landing spot. I dont agree. Its way higher than Inception and hold similar. No way its going to drop off the radar that much. That said let us wait for 2nd Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Mango said: Oppenheimer’s second weekend if it follows other Nolan films TDK: $39.1m (-52.5%) Inception: $56m (-32%) TDKR: $31.8m (-61.4%) Interstellar: $49.1m (-40.4%) Dunkirk: $43.4m (-47.3%) Interstellar probably should have been excluded since it was a totally different time of year, and I didn’t bother with Tenet or anything pre-TDK. We can ignore Interstellar. So far it has been tracking very similar to Inception in daily percentages. Probably won’t match Inception’s crazy weekend number of 32%, but I would be glad if it can land around 42%. That’s better than Dunkirk, TDK, and TDKR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Just now, keysersoze123 said: I dont agree. Its way higher than Inception and hold similar. No way its going to drop off the radar that much. That said let us wait for 2nd Friday. It’s a conservative extrapolation sure, but knowing these boards and I know them well, being conservative with expectations always pays off. Better being pleasantly surprised than getting people hyped up for something that yeah could happen but it’s not as easy as we’re saying, despite having a lot on their favor. It’s certainly the most fun I had following a box office run since Spider-Man: No Way Home. I was on vacation during A2 and didn’t care for TGM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 29 minutes ago, upriser7 said: Both EC and Charlie say 25M for Barbie, 12M for Oppenheimer The whole "Barbenheimer" phenomenon is fascinating. Has there ever been 2 competing movies from 2 different studios that have formed such a symbiotic relationship before? These 2 movies have somehow become inextricably linked for some time now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 5 hours ago, Jiffy said: Don't see how Endgame's record still stands in 30 years unless theatrical just dies completely. weekend admit record can stand. nothing else has even crossed 25M, Endgame sits at 33M ish. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: We can ignore Interstellar. So far it has been tracking very similar to Inception in daily percentages. Probably won’t match Inception’s crazy weekend number of 32%, but I would be glad if it can land around 42%. That’s better than Dunkirk, TDK, and TDKR. I’m hoping for a sub-40% but realistically 40-45% would be good and basically lock in $300m, or at least close to it. Inception would be a tough one regardless but especially because even if Saturday and Sunday match it, Oppy’s Friday will lose to Inception based on last weeks previews being factored in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 5 hours ago, Johnny Tran said: Avatar is the most impressive run. 'Endgame' had 11 films of buildup or whatever it was. 20 films. I don't know. Avatar was a brand new IP and it didn't have a crazy opening weekend either. It just got bigger and bigger.. Even more impressive. They maintained and build interest for 20+ films, when others cant even do for 7-8. Potter had lost 30-35% admits from first part till last. Avatar is 30% down in 2nd part itself, could be down to less than half by the time 5th come. 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Incarnadine said: The whole "Barbenheimer" phenomenon is fascinating. Has there ever been 2 competing movies from 2 different studios that have formed such a symbiotic relationship before? These 2 movies have somehow become inextricably linked for some time now. Jurassic World & Inside Out. Amazing run for those 2 movies together. Barbie & Oppy feels like a pretty good sequel to Summer 2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Jurassic World & Inside Out. Amazing run for those 2 movies together. Barbie & Oppy feels like a pretty good sequel to Summer 2015. Jurassic World has an underrated box office run. It was complete insanity and we didn’t see it coming as big as it did. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Smokey and the Bandit and Star Wars came out on the same day (basically) in 1977… two highest grossing movies of that year. I know releases were carried out different, but still! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Amazing for both the movies. @across the Jat verse are you still believing in max 250m for Oppy? I don't think I said 250 is max for it, I was just putting a possibility that it may happen. That said, with 125M week 1, Dunkirk drops get it to $313M, TDK $284M and TDKR $250M. Guess $275M will be a good target. Will love to see it hit $300M. Inception gets it $347M but don't think the reception is that great and opening is that low to get those numbers. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: That is not weird. PG13 movies will have stronger weekdays than R rated movies. Adults have to work, summer or not. Wait until you see Friday increase for both. Barbie will have the softest increase among all movies(except those whose show count is decimated). The runtime is hurting Opp weekdays for sure, but Barbie is extremely adult skewed as well if that 11% 18 and under stat is to be believed, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said: I don't think I said 250 is max for it, I was just putting a possibility that it may happen. That said, with 125M week 1, Dunkirk drops get it to $313M, TDK $284M and TDKR $250M. Guess $275M will be a good target. Will love to see it hit $300M. Inception gets it $347M but don't think the reception is that great and opening is that low to get those numbers. The fact that $250M feels like a pretty "easy" landing spot is amazing. There were credible tracking reports of a $50M opening weekend in the days leading up to release. $250M total would require a staggering 5x multiplier based on a $50M opening. Helps put everything in perspective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said: weekend admit record can stand. nothing else has even crossed 25M, Endgame sits at 33M ish. Yeah, it’s the admissions record that is holding pretty much forever unless if/when there is ever a seismic shift again in people wanting to flock to movie theaters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Jurassic World & Inside Out. Amazing run for those 2 movies together. Barbie & Oppy feels like a pretty good sequel to Summer 2015. No awards season parallels there though, in addition to both being adult skewed and “auteur” director parallels. And of course not the exact same OW date either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Yeah, it’s the admissions record that is holding pretty much forever unless if/when there is ever a seismic shift again in people wanting to flock to movie theaters. Even if there is a huge shift back to theaters and we get attendance levels from a decade ago back, getting something to Endgame admissions for opening weekend would be insanely difficult. The only thing I can think of that could even feasibly do this is if James Gunn’s new DC universe is as successful as it possibly could be. And even that would take a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: The fact that $250M feels like a pretty "easy" landing spot is amazing. There were credible tracking reports of a $50M opening weekend in the days leading up to release. $250M total would require a staggering 5x multiplier based on a $50M opening. Helps put everything in perspective. I thought it was doing 100 DOM if it was lucky if it was another Tenet quality level and before I realized Barbenheimer was actually helping it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
