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Weekday numbers July 24-27

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Oppy’s Wednesday is -59.6% from Saturday. Below is the list for Nolan’s other July movies…

 

Inception:  -59.3% from SAT

Oppy:  -59.6% from SAT

TDK:   -61.4% from SAT

TDKR:   -69.4% from SAT

Dunkirk:  -70.5% from SAT

 

Dunkirk looks like an outlier in the bunch. It ended up with much stronger legs than this Wednesday metric would indicate. Dunkirk makes up ground on Thursday, when it has a slight increase. The other movies dropped between 3% and 10% on Thursday. 

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2 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

It's funny how the trend now they seem to be actually in favor of OW deflation. NWH remains the only film in 4 years to have opened above $200m, despite inflation having made that feat much easier. Meanwhile, outside of the MCU, every other major blockbuster in the last few years seems to be trending towards to lower openings and stronger legs

 

2019 Blockbusters

Captain Marvel: 153m OW > 2.78

Avengers Endgame: 357m OW > 2.40

Aladdin: 91.5m OW > 3.89

Toy Story 4 > 120m OW > 3.62

The Lion King > 191m OW > 2.83

It Chapter 2: 91m OW > 2.26

Joker: 96m OW > 3.49

Frozen 2: 130m OW > 3.66

Star Wars IX: 177m OW > 2.90

 

Avg OW: 152.3m    Avg multi: 2.98

 

Now let's compare to post-COVID blockbusters:

 

Non-MCU blockbusters 2022-2023:

The Batman: 134m OW > 2.76

Top Gun Maverick: 127m OW > 5.67

JW Dominion: 145m OW > 2.59

Minions 2: 107m OW > 3.45

Avatar 2: 134m OW > 5.10

Super Mario: 146m OW* > 3.93 (3.53 if you subtract opening Wed and Thr) 

The Little Mermaid: 95m OW > 3.10

Spiderman ATSV: 120m OW > 3.12

Barbenheimer: 244m OW > ~3+

 

Avg OW: 125.2m    Avg multi: 3.715

 

There has been one major exception to this rule, which is the MCU, which remains comparative frontloaded:

 

No Way Home: 260m OW > 3.09* (OG release)

Dr. Strange 2: 187m OW > 2.11

Thor 4: 144m OW > 2.38

Black Panther 2: 181m OW > 2.50

AMaTW: 106m OW: 2.02

GoTG Vol. 3: 118m OW > 3.03

 

Avg OW: 166m    Avg multi: 2.52

 

 

I think an argument can be made that post-COVID there has certainly been a far clearer feast-or-famine phenomenon for would-be blockbusters. It seems like audiences are either fully embracing a movie, determining it's worth seeing outside their home, or rejecting it immediately after launch (whether due to reviews, WOM, bad press whatever). That explains why the mid-200 million movie has basically disappeared now (let's see what Oppenheimer does).

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5 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Barbie is not woke lmao. A woke Barbie would have casted a non-white woman or a plus-size white woman to play Barbie.

 

Its very entertaining to see a lot of people on Twitter/YouTube etc. trying to say that

 

a) Barbie is woke feminist propaganda and

b) Barbies success is destroying woke feminist Disney at the box office

 

at the same time.

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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Oppy’s Wednesday is -59.6% from Saturday. Below is the list for Nolan’s other July movies…

 

Inception:  -59.3% from SAT

Oppy:  -59.6% from SAT

TDK:   -61.4% from SAT

TDKR:   -69.4% from SAT

Dunkirk:  -70.5% from SAT

 

Dunkirk looks like an outlier in the bunch. It ended up with much stronger legs than this Wednesday metric would indicate. Dunkirk makes up ground on Thursday, when it has a slight increase. The other movies dropped between 3% and 10% on Thursday. 

I want Oppie >10M and Barbie >20M. That would just be fantastic to have their first ten days (11 if you include the Thu previews) accomplish that.

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32 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

On Incredibles 2 I'd also like to add that it came out during a different era. An era where streaming wasn't the unstoppable force it would become during the pandemic, thus causing the average moviegoer to be a lot more forgiving and less picky. If it was released today it'd drop off pretty quickly. Not on the level of the recent DC flops, but not anything pleasant. There's a reason why Spider-Verse crushed it and Ralph 2 at the Oscars back then.

You say that as if Mario didn't breakout like three months ago.

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5 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Barbie is not woke lmao. A woke Barbie would have casted a non-white woman or a plus-size white woman to play Barbie.

There are non white and plus sized Barbies in the movie (and a trans Barbie), but point taken as Margo is the main Barbie. 

 

It still is 'woke' by conservative standards though because (as they keep harping on) it portrays the real world as highly patriarchal and pushes feminist messaging. The bar to being called woke is extremely low, and anything that gives a whiff of feminist politics sets off the conservatives 'woke' detectors.

 

Theres an entire website called 'worth it or woke' that rates films on 'wokeness' and Barbie got the worst rating possible, they wrote many paragraphs about all the 'woke' stuff in the film. 

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10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Barbie is not woke lmao. A woke Barbie would have casted a non-white woman or a plus-size white woman to play Barbie.

If this movie was failing you know damn well people would be saying it was because of its "woke" messaging lol.

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10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Barbie is not woke lmao. A woke Barbie would have casted a non-white woman or a plus-size white woman to play Barbie.

Cool. Tell that to all the conservatives throwing temper tantrums at this movie then.

 

Spoiler

Also "wokeness" isn't actually a real thing and is just a dogwhistle people use to act like racist or sexist assholes

 

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1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its very entertaining to see a lot of people on Twitter/YouTube etc. trying to say that

 

a) Barbie is woke feminist propaganda and

b) Barbies success is destroying woke feminist Disney at the box office

 

at the same time.

I'm convinced part of Barbie's success is that it proclaims it's feminism extremely loud and proud (it's not trying to "sneak" it in there) while at the same time it's also operating as all things to all people. I've seen conservative readings on Barbie alongside all the others.

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9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its very entertaining to see a lot of people on Twitter/YouTube etc. trying to say that

 

a) Barbie is woke feminist propaganda and

b) Barbies success is destroying woke feminist Disney at the box office

 

at the same time.

It's a typical tactic, as they can not destroy the success of this movie, and is growing more and more, they are now trying to spin it, now that is not woke, because for them woke can not do good, even if reality says otherwise. Those people are ridiculous. They did that with Man hating movie Mad Max Fury road. 

Edited by Day and Date The Best
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5 minutes ago, Jayhawk the Hutt said:

I'm convinced part of Barbie's success is that it proclaims it's feminism extremely loud and proud (it's not trying to "sneak" it in there) while at the same time it's also operating as all things to all people. I've seen conservative readings on Barbie alongside all the others.

They are doing those conservatives reading because the movie is succesfull and they do not want to alienate people and be seen as outcasts, if Barbie was not successfull at the Box Office, being the same movie, they would not have done a single alternative reading. 

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21 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Thurs - $20m (-13%, it's gonna lose all PLFs)

Fri - $28m (+40%)

Sat - $33.6m (+20%)

Sun - $26.9m (-18%)

Wknd - $89.2m

 

Nothing there seems especially unreasonable?

Depending on what Friday's number is, it could even go lower than that imo. So predicting 100M seems a bit too optimistic to me. Not saying it can't go that high but at the moment, I don't think 90M is the floor either. 

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8 minutes ago, fl0xtez said:

Theres an entire website called 'worth it or woke' that rates films on 'wokeness' and Barbie got the worst rating possible, they wrote many paragraphs about all the 'woke' stuff in the film. 

 

I found this website and had a good hearty chuckle.

 

Then I realized it has to be fucking exhausting living like that.   

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