The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, TheOneWithTheHat said:

Award season is increasingly not the best place to release Oscar contenders, based on the last few Oscar years. 

 

mhh yes and no. A nolan movie in the best picture conversation it's different from a little movie in the oscar conversation.

 

And on the international markets i can tell you make a biiig difference. In my country awards buzz, actors  winning at golden globes etc.. makes the difference, for a movie like this, from 7 M in july to the double on february, 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

It's probably not gonna happen because Oppenheimer looks more like an $8m preview movie but if it does manage to get to $10m I'm pretty sure that will be the first time ever two movies had Thursday previews over $10m at the same time. I looked through the last ten years of Thursday previews and couldn't find any that came close. In fact I think even $8m+ for both would be some kind of record. Obviously previews have started much earlier lately so this wouldn't have even been possible before but it's still interesting.

[M37]

11 hours ago, Bob-omb said:

Are pre-sales for women-targeted movies this crazy? Did the pre-sales of highly awaited movies behaved like this (e.g., Frozen II)?

Basically, yes (though not this crazy). Think back to all of the Twilight or Hunger Games films, but a more recent example is Don't Worry Darling (71% F per Deadline), which had a lot of presales but then petered out at the end. Keeping in mind that individuals are more nuanced than boxes checked, various demo groups generally buy tickets at different times in the sales window

• Older before younger
• Women before men
• White before non-white
• Big city before rural/casual

Roll it all up together, wind up with something like Downtown Abbey (older, white, female) with high presales/low walk-ups on one end, and Minions (younger, diverse, broad appealing) blowing up at the last minute on the other. Wherever a film's audience composition lies along those varies axes is how we should expect it to perform in final week/days vs the presales that came before it (as well as IM and Multi from those early grosses), then also factor in IP/brand recognition.

 

Problem is, while we often basically know what an audience will look like - say a franchise like MI7 or Fast X - and its easy to comp, sometimes its not quite as clear. Barbie will certainly skew towards younger and middle aged women, but how diverse and how much it appeals to casual viewers isn't quite clear. So don't know if current sales represent 35% of the total (so 3x from here), or 20% (so 5x), and that leaves a big range on final outcome (though some indicators are looking good, that film is moving into full breakout territory, reaching everyone)

[Bobzaruni]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Basically, yes (though not this crazy). Think back to all of the Twilight or Hunger Games films, but a more recent example is Don't Worry Darling (71% F per Deadline), which had a lot of presales but then petered out at the end. Keeping in mind that individuals are more nuanced than boxes checked, various demo groups generally buy tickets at different times in the sales window

• Older before younger
• Women before men
• White before non-white
• Big city before rural/casual

Roll it all up together, wind up with something like Downtown Abbey (older, white, female) with high presales/low walk-ups on one end, and Minions (younger, diverse, broad appealing) blowing up at the last minute on the other. Wherever a film's audience composition lies along those varies axes is how we should expect it to perform in final week/days vs the presales that came before it (as well as IM and Multi from those early grosses), then also factor in IP/brand recognition.

 

Problem is, while we often basically know what an audience will look like - say a franchise like MI7 or Fast X - and its easy to comp, sometimes its not quite as clear. Barbie will certainly skew towards younger and middle aged women, but how diverse and how much it appeals to casual viewers isn't quite clear. So don't know if current sales represent 35% of the total (so 3x from here), or 20% (so 5x), and that leaves a big range on final outcome (though some indicators are looking good, that film is moving into full breakout territory, reaching everyone)

Really? Older before younger? I did not expect that. I thought it'd be older people who end up doing walk-ups 

[Bobzaruni]

Is Oppenheimer's ATP gonna be one of the highest ever for a wide release considering inflation and heavy PLFs?

[M37]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

It's probably not gonna happen because Oppenheimer looks more like an $8m preview movie but if it does manage to get to $10m I'm pretty sure that will be the first time ever two movies had Thursday previews over $10m at the same time. I looked through the last ten years of Thursday previews and couldn't find any that came close. In fact I think even $8m+ for both would be some kind of record. Obviously previews have started much earlier lately so this wouldn't have even been possible before but it's still interesting.

There's only been a handful of times that two films opened to $40M+, and often the second film was a family movie (Monsters U vs World War Z, BH6 vs Intersetllar), so I'm sure its going to be the first of dual previews of some low number like $4 or $5M

 

Off top of my head, thinking Star is Born (vs Venom) is probably top preview of 2nd place opener

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Really? Older before younger? I did not expect that. I thought it'd be older people who end up doing walk-ups 

No, that’s a common misconception, especially post-pandemic, where the old folks by necessity had to get more comfortable with online purchases 

 

Older audiences are more patient, not as inclined to rush out for Thursday or even OW so IM & legs are usually better, but when they do decide to go, it’s on average more planned out and tickets bought earlier than younger, more impulsive, counterparts 

[M37]

21 hours ago, M37 said:

Mondays, huh?

 

 

Looks like we might get to $9M+ true preview value, before adjusting down for discounts, but do think $8M+ actual is incoming, like $2-$2.5 from all EA shows plus ~$6M for just Tuesday

 

It does seem like the 4th of July depression effect finally wore off on Monday, as people returned from time off to their regular routines, and started buying tickets again, across the board. MI7 opening immediately was the biggest beneficiary, but Barbie (plus SM bump) and Oppy also appear to have benefited

No chart update, but just for the record, still thinking around $8M for MI7 actual preview, but with a bit of a softer finish, like +/- $0.3

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

No chart update, but just for the record, still thinking around $8M for MI7 actual preview, but with a bit of a softer finish, like +/- $0.3

This next to Jat numbers is quite impressive. Good job.

[vale9001]

i doubt female driven movies like twilight or 50 shades had these strong day by day sales for a month, with last 2 day stongest than a week before. 

 

Everything on Barbie at this point shows is just like a super hero movie. They appeal more to men for sure but in general to everyone including a lot of women, here the same with women but the appeal is becaming more and more general. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by vale9001

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 2 T-0: 54.05% Awareness

Cobweb T-9: 15.02% Awareness

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-21: 43.78% Awareness

The Meg 2: The Trench T-23: 36.75% Awareness

Landscape with an Invisible Hand T-37: 12.3% Awareness

Bottoms T-51: 14.73% Awareness

Expend4bles T-72: 29.23% Awareness

Kraven the Hunter T-86: 21.16% Awareness

Underdoggs T-100: 21.47% Awareness

 

The Nun II T-58: 31.1% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 94% chance of 10M, 70% chance of 20M, 47% chance of 30M, 23% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 75% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

[eeetooki]

2 hours ago, vale9001 said:

oppenhaimer btw seems really an heavy movie and really "depressing" (nothing wrong with it of course). Just i don't understand why nolas has to be "summer movie" at any cost, this really seems his less blockbuster audience appealing movie. I think another season of the year could have fit more probably. 

Nolan is at the stage where he can choose to make whatever movie he wants. He has made plenty of blockbusters so there's nothing wrong with him wanting to do a less mainstream movie.

[Bobzaruni]

1 minute ago, eeetooki said:

Nolan is at the stage where he can choose to make whatever movie he wants. He has made plenty of blockbusters so there's nothing wrong with him wanting to do a less mainstream movie.

What they're saying is that they don't see why he needed to release as a part of the "summer blockbuster" season. I don't think there's any specific reason tbh they just released it to maybe reach as much of an audience as possible, especially since it's already kneecapped being a 3-hour R-rated movie about a character study on a person who made a bomb.

[vale9001]

9 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Nolan is at the stage where he can choose to make whatever movie he wants. He has made plenty of blockbusters so there's nothing wrong with him wanting to do a less mainstream movie.

 

and where i said he should only make commercial movies?. My point is this seems a movie perfect for the Oscars so especially on international markets a january to march release could have push its numbers. In my country The Renevant pushed by Di caprio oscar campaign made 17M, more than basically any Marvel movies is not Avenegers. With an aug-sept release no more than like 7-8M. 

And i can make you a looot of more examples about these kind of similar situations. 

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by vale9001

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

And i can make you a looot of more examples about these kind of similar situations. 

 

In the last years, especially after the pandemic all movies released in Oscar season flopped. Nolan is doing great in the summer. No need to change strategy

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

In the last years, especially after the pandemic all movies released in Oscar season flopped. Nolan is doing great in the summer. No need to change strategy

Nolan even if it’s a biopic drama it’s a Summer event kind of endeavor. He has earned that with the TDK trilogy.

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	110	10	5	9	1
Seats Added	12,645	946	426	811	217
Seats Sold	15,878	6,645	4,502	4,079	3,528
7/10/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	3,273	77,449	628,166	12.33%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	11	53	104
ATP	Gross
$18.08	$1,400,278

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: Final
7/10/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	204	217	33,637	53,122	63.32%
ATP	Gross
$20.49	$689,222

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
	Last Day + Walkups		2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	35		110	10	5
Seats Added	5,102		12,645	946	426
Seats Sold	66,062		15,878	6,645	4,502
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	3,308	143,511	633,268	22.66%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	11	53	104
ATP	Gross
$17.26	$2,477,000

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: Final
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	204	217	33,637	53,122	63.32%
ATP	Gross
$20.49	$689,222

 

[ZackM]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:48 PM, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	21	91	14	7	14
Seats Added	3,088	15,867	2,074	783	1,510
Seats Sold	5,242	4,217	3,932	4,039	3,470
7/9/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	413	2,112	68,957	347,649	19.84%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	10	50	102	198
ATP	Gross
$16.33	$1,126,068

 

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
7/9/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	18,592	20,668	89.96%
ATP	Gross
$21.21	$394,336

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	175	100	21	91	14
Seats Added	28,886	17,738	3,088	15,867	2,074
Seats Sold	9,499	10,100	5,242	4,217	3,932
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,387	88,556	394,273	22.46%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	16	67	156	292
ATP	Gross
$16.38	$1,450,547

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	18,968	20,668	91.77%
ATP	Gross
$21.18	$401,742

[ZackM]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:45 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	8	19	4	1	0
Seats Added	1,053	3,036	820	55	0
Seats Sold	2,769	2,338	2,464	1,958	1,937
7/9/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	1,360	56,159	265,993	21.11%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	11	33	70	111
ATP	Gross
$19.24	$1,080,499

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	39	22	8	19	4
Seats Added	7,493	4,001	1,053	3,036	820
Seats Sold	4,255	4,348	2,769	2,338	2,464
7/11/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,421	64,762	277,487	23.34%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	11	43	95	142
ATP	Gross
$19.09	$1,236,307

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

There's only been a handful of times that two films opened to $40M+, and often the second film was a family movie (Monsters U vs World War Z, BH6 vs Intersetllar), so I'm sure its going to be the first of dual previews of some low number like $4 or $5M

 

Off top of my head, thinking Star is Born (vs Venom) is probably top preview of 2nd place opener

That's the highest I see going back to 2011.  Here are the top 2nd place in that range that I could find.

 

Venom (10m) vs Star is Born (4.55m)

Pitch Perfect (4.6m) vs Mad Max Fury Road (3.7m)

Dark Phoenix (5m) vs SLoP (3.225m)

Mamma Mia (3.4m) vs Equalizer 2 (3.1m)

Conjuring (3.4m) vs Warcraft (3.1m)