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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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16 minutes ago, Eric the Turtle said:

Quorum Updates

Gran Turismo T-16: 32.52% Awareness

The Hill T-16: 19.38% Awareness

It Lives Inside T-44: 16.82% Awareness

The Holdovers T-93: 11.01% Awareness

Bob Marley: One Love T-156: 27.47% Awareness

Argylle T-177: 12.5% Awareness

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-2: 31.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

Strays T-9: 39.63% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

 

The Nun II T-30: 42% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 30M, 73% chance of 40M, 53% chance of 50M

Horror  Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-65: 30.61% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 94% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 47% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

I don’t understand that Quorum is or how it works.

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1 hour ago, M37 said:

 But it wouldn’t be on that level most likely 

 

Last LD weekend, with CD, admits for the 4 days were roughly: 1.0M/7.5M/1.5M/1.3M = ~11.5M total

 

Even if a 4-day CD event were to boost that up to say 16M total, still looking at a ~$150M 3-day equivalent, or below this past weekend; busy, but not overwhelming. But a 7M+ single day admit level is much more difficult to handle - that’s Barbenheimer opening Saturday level 

 

I'd be happy with a whole weekend event. But I wonder if part of the intent is to sell out, and have people then book full priced tickets the next day when they don't get their showtimes.

 

But, your analysis of admissions shows that it didn't really work. There seemed to be little spillover. People wanted the deal.

 

The other interesting challenge for this year is that the box office will be performing a lot better going into that weekend. The weekend prior to labor day weekend only did $53M , and the only "new" release was The extended No Way Home.

 

This year, with no CD promotion, that weekend would be tracking for at least $100-120M in my view.

 

There will be a case of real money that's being left on the table this go around that wasn't the case last year.

 

It's smart to view that as an investment in goodwill among consumers, but, I'm skeptical if that's the consistent perspective among the industry, who seem very short sighted these days.

 

Theatres will be happy, but, I wonder if studios will be grumbling a bit. And your idea of expanding the deal to meet demand makes sense, but I wonder if studios will go the other way. Raise prices again and make it less accessible, like making new releases exempt.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I'd be happy with a whole weekend event. But I wonder if part of the intent is to sell out, and have people then book full priced tickets the next day when they don't get their showtimes.

 

 

That's exactly what theaters want. All seats for Barbie and TMNT will be sold out on NCD, some will book tickets for the next day or just next week for Labor Day weekend showings.

 

For Barbie most that wanted to see it has done so by now, I can see many going for repeat showings. TMNT has a lot of room for growth, I think many are uncertain about it after Bayturtles and the low price will lure them to see the movie.

 

For Gran Turismo, they should really keep it full price because it is a new movie. The studio should demand for regular pricing. It can get plenty of spillover sales from other sold out showings.

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I know some people want CD to be spread over a 3 day weekend, but remember it is called Cinema DAY. By making it 3 days it would feel like less of an event. It's like having a sale at a store for just one day, there is a rush factor and costumer will rush in to buy if they feel like they will miss out on the deal after the day is over with.

Edited by Mojoguy
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The Last Voyage of the Demeter counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 21 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 40 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 120 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 217.

Up poor 12% since yesterday.
Comps (all three films counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 140 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 176
and Renfield (900k) had 316 sold tickets.
The Boogeyman (1.1M) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 173 sold tickets.

Despite the poor jump 1M+ from previews at the moment.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 48 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 147 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 232. Not frontloaded.

Up quite good 31% since yesterday.
Comps (all five films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday; with the exception of The Night House always counted in 7 theaters → with 7 theaters the Demeter would have more than 250 sold tickets): Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 207 sold tickets,
The Invitation (6.8M) had 167,
Old (16.9M) had 262,
The Night House (2.9M) had 72
and Renfield (8M) had 269 sold tickets.
And The Boogeyman (12.4M) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 193 sold tickets.
 

Strange. One jump is really bad for a horror movie and one very acceptable. Still ca. 10M OW could happen.
I see no reviews which isn't a good sign I guess. OTOH the trailer is alright IMO and especially the poster with only the ship is great. It's also since one week #1 of the most anticipated movies at thenumbers.com which doesn't mean much but it shows that there's at least some interest.

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8 hours ago, M37 said:

From what I heard, it was a nightmare in a lot of places. First time for such an event, nobody really knew what to expect, and the result was over 7 million admissions, somewhere between the opening Saturday of NWH and that of Barbenheimer. But it wasn’t just 1 or 2 movies drawing in most of the business, but all of them, and so seats were not properly allocated to demand (like Super Pets selling out everywhere) 

 

As an additional note, based on what I was told from those who attended, the cheap tickets brought out a lot of "DGAF" disruptive audience members, likely because they didn't actually care about the movie due to how little they paid for it. I recall one theater manager saying it felt like an entire day of babysitting rowdy children, and I think some even closed early because they didn't want to continue to deal with all the mayhem.

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On 8/8/2023 at 4:15 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-3):

Day: T-2 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 20 theaters 48 34 103 4281 2.41

 

Comps:

0.79x Talk to Me: $978k

0.33x Insidious Red Door: $1.67 Million

0.944x Beast:$865k

2.63x The Invitation: $2 Million

1x Barbarian (On the dot): $850k

 

Average: $1.27 Million 

 

Up against some comps, down against others. Worth noting that over half (19/34) of new tickets sold were from the local Alamo theater finally posting showtimes for this, so it's a bit artificially inflated. The two comps that make it look good are the worst ones imo (Insidious was walk-up master of the summer and The Invitation is PG-13 aimed more at girls). Thinking under $1 Million at this point.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-3):

Day: T-1 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 20 theaters 49 35 138 4361 3.16

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
 
1-Day:
33.98
3-Day:
130

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.77x Talk to Me: $960k (145%)

0.33x Insidious Red Door: $1.65 Million (152%)

0.84x Beast: $780k (135%)

1.28x The Invitation: $993k (N/A)

0.91x Barbarian: $773k (N/A)

 

Lost ground against every comp, and its 3-day growth rate is unimpressive, definitely under a million. I'll be able to pull T-1 hour numbers tomorrow, so I'll put in my final prediction then.

Edited by abracadabra1998
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3 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

That's exactly what theaters want. All seats for Barbie and TMNT will be sold out on NCD, some will book tickets for the next day or just next week for Labor Day weekend showings.

 

For Barbie most that wanted to see it has done so by now, I can see many going for repeat showings. TMNT has a lot of room for growth, I think many are uncertain about it after Bayturtles and the low price will lure them to see the movie.

 

For Gran Turismo, they should really keep it full price because it is a new movie. The studio should demand for regular pricing. It can get plenty of spillover sales from other sold out showings.

US chains are so stingy. Some other regions do similar events for the whole weekend or the entire week, over there is one day only and may not even include every movie.

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

138

367

24786

1.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS 

T-9

 

(0.233x) of Haunted Mansion

~$723k THUR Previews

 

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

138

376

24786

1.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS 

T-8

 

(0.230x) of Haunted Mansion

~$713k THUR Previews

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Last Voyage 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

136

407

23118

1.8%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-2

 

(1.641x) of Talk to me

~$2.04M THUR Previews

 

(1.244x) of Boogeyman

~$1.37M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.70M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Last Voyage 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

145

425

24836

1.7%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-1

 

(1.253x) of Talk to me

~$1.56M THUR Previews

 

(1.054x) of Boogeyman

~$1.16M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.36M

 

Still decreasing against comps...Looks like $1M-$1.5M previews 

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

164

904

28836

3.1%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS 

T-9

 

(0.327x) of The Flash

~$3.17M THUR Previews 

 

(0.410x) of Indy 5

~$2.95M THUR Previews

 

(0.564x) of Fast X

~$4.23M THUR Previews

 

(0.575x) of RoTB 

~$5.06M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.85M previews 

 

 

BB pace vs Flash $3.68M

BB pace vs Fast x $3.5M

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

164

935

28836

3.2%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS 

T-8

 

(0.332x) of The Flash

~$3.22M THUR Previews 

 

(0.405x) of Indy 5

~$2.92M THUR Previews

 

(0.549x) of Fast X

~$4.11M THUR Previews

 

(0.584x) of RoTB 

~$5.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.85M previews 

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26 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Ok

Get some of the huge Social Media influencers to market it for free. I doubt even that would help as it definitely did not help Flash. DC Brand having negative equity at this point affects this big time plus this looks really generic origin movie. Studio is also not even trying that much. 

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55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Get some of the huge Social Media influencers to market it for free. I doubt even that would help as it definitely did not help Flash. DC Brand having negative equity at this point affects this big time plus this looks really generic origin movie. Studio is also not even trying that much. 

Tbh if WB tried the same exact "best superhero movie ever!" faux-WOM marketing strategy again, I'd respect them for it

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21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo (EA) T-0 Jax 5 10 21 216 1,852 11.66%
    Phx 2 3 12 141 331 42.60%
    Ral 2 3 0 56 261 21.46%
  Total   8 16 33 413 2,444 16.90%
  T-2 Jax 3 3 15 32 531 6.03%
    Phx 3 3 1 13 432 3.01%
    Ral 3 3 20 32 438 7.31%
  Total   9 9 36 77 1,401 5.50%
  T-3 Jax 3 6 0 12 1,508 0.80%
    Phx 3 6 3 11 1,066 1.03%
    Ral 3 6 5 15 760 1.97%
  Total   9 18 8 38 3,334 1.14%
  T-4 Jax 3 4 6 6 526 1.14%
    Phx 3 3 2 2 548 0.36%
    Ral 3 3 2 9 322 2.80%
  Total   9 10 10 17 1,396 1.22%
Last Voyage T-1 Jax 5 17 11 52 1,688 3.08%
    Phx 6 20 11 65 1,958 3.32%
    Ral 7 19 14 56 1,886 2.97%
  Total   18 56 36 173 5,532 3.13%

 

Well, it looks like Gran Turismo is going ALL IN on early shows/sneaks/whatever.  In addition to the scheduled early shows (8/2, 8/8, 8/9), they are keeping F-Su shows this weekend AND next weekend and marking them as sneaks.  So now there are NINE different days with early shows not even including previews Thursday (8/24).  I'll check how wide these all are in my showtimes report on Friday.  Long story short, this opening is going to be a mess even before the Cinema Day on opening Sunday skewing things further.  Preview tickets have been on sale for the new date for about a week now and have sold all of two tickets in my regions compared to the 547 total EA tickets sold.  

 

END RANT

 

Last Voyage T-1 comps

 - Renfield - missed

 - Black Phone - .403x (1.05m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .692x (1m)

 - Northman - .427x (577k)

 - Green Knight - .746x (559k)

 - Talk to Me - .703x (876k)

 - Beast - 1.042x (964k)

 - The Invitation - 1.648x (1.28m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 955k

 

Last Voyage pace chart

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Last Voyage 94.38% 43.82% 50.00% 26.28%
Renfield        
Black Phone     15.25% 34.06%
Knock at the Cabin 72.41% 26.21% 13.08% 23.15%
Northman     40.51% 14.73%
The Green Knight 262.50% 34.38% 54.76% 43.21%
Talk to Me 182.76% 48.28% 35.56% 78.26%
Beast 159.38% 29.69% 53.33% 46.90%
The Invitation       56.72%

 

Normal horror pattern would have a big increase today.  I don't really see the excitement here where it was for some of the others.  I've been expecting around 800k and I'm still in that camp.  Tomorrow will be clearer at least.  Growth rate model is giving me around 650k so that's not great...

 

Gran Turismo EA T-0 comps (For the original three EA days)

 - Transformers (EA) - .457x (685k)

 - Turtles (EA) - .393x (688k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .62x (682k)

 

I'm gonna say.....  685k

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo (EA) T-1 Jax 3 3 3 35 531 6.59%
    Phx 3 3 4 17 432 3.94%
    Ral 3 3 9 41 438 9.36%
  Total   9 9 16 93 1,401 6.64%
  T-2 Jax 3 6 8 20 1,508 1.33%
    Phx 3 6 8 19 1,066 1.78%
    Ral 3 6 16 31 760 4.08%
  Total   9 18 32 70 3,334 2.10%
  T-3 Jax 3 4 2 8 526 1.52%
    Phx 3 3 2 4 548 0.73%
    Ral 3 3 9 18 322 5.59%
  Total   9 10 13 30 1,396 2.15%
Last Voyage T-0 Jax 5 17 24 76 1,688 4.50%
    Phx 6 20 29 94 1,958 4.80%
    Ral 7 19 28 84 1,886 4.45%
  Total   18 56 81 254 5,532 4.59%

 

Last Voyage T-0 comps

 - Renfield - .841x (715k)

 - Black Phone - .376x (977k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .69x (1m)

 - Northman - .463x (625k)

 - Green Knight - .715x (537k)

 - Talk to Me - .715x (826k)

 - Beast - 1.1x (1.02m)

 - The Invitation - 1.358x (1.05m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 873k

Growth rate model forecast - 788k

 

Last Voyage pace chart

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Last Voyage 146.60% 46.60% 52.73% 46.82%
Renfield        
Black Phone     26.67% 57.58%
Knock at the Cabin 117.75% 24.26% 22.66% 47.20%
Northman 90.63% 37.50% 40.00% 35.56%
The Green Knight 308.05% 42.53% 54.00% 53.02%
Talk to Me 275.49% 47.06% 42.59% 55.69%
Beast 192.41% 37.97% 46.94% 39.16%
The Invitation 356.10%     78.10%

 

3-day pace is all over the place for these comps.   Still a little conflicted on preview number; on one hand I want to go higher, but I still feel like this is an 800k kind of movie.  Something I found interesting - 15/22 of the R horror comps are under 1m, while every single PG13 horror movie I've tracked comps to over 1m.  For now I'll stick with my guns at 800k and we'll see what the final update brings.

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21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Blue Beetle T-8 Jax 5 42 7 74 6,627 1.12%
    Phx 6 43 4 66 8,909 0.74%
    Ral 8 28 3 81 4,226 1.92%
  Total   19 113 14 221 19,762 1.12%
Gran Turismo (EA) T-10 Jax 4 8 0 0 1,642 0.00%
    Phx 4 8 0 0 1,098 0.00%
    Ral 2 4 0 0 310 0.00%
  Total   10 20 0 0 3,050 0.00%
  T-11 Jax 4 4 0 0 821 0.00%
    Phx 4 4 0 0 544 0.00%
    Ral 2 2 0 0 155 0.00%
  Total   10 10 0 0 1,520 0.00%
  T-9 Jax 4 4 0 0 821 0.00%
    Phx 4 4 0 0 544 0.00%
    Ral 2 2 2 2 155 1.29%
  Total   10 10 2 2 1,520 0.13%
Strays T-8 Jax 6 15 0 18 1,897 0.95%
    Phx 6 23 0 18 3,053 0.59%
    Ral 6 18 0 20 2,703 0.74%
  Total   18 56 0 56 7,653 0.73%
Strays (EA) T-7 Jax 3 3 0 3 352 0.85%
    Phx 3 3 0 1 403 0.25%
    Ral 4 4 0 6 506 1.19%
  Total   10 10 0 10 1,261 0.79%

 

As mentioned, GT has shows on F-Su for this weekend as well.  Only two tickets sold in 40 shows though.

 

Strays (Total) T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.28x (1.14m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .892x (981k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .786x (589k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .44x (880k)

 - Violent Night - .795x (875k) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .094x (526k)

 

Size adjusted average - 955k

 

Blue Beetle T-8 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.47x (2.95m)

 - Bullet Train - .909x (3.05m)

 - Turtles - .752x (2.89m)

 - Suicide Squad - .646x (2.65m)

 - Shazam 2 - .454x (1.54m)

 - Black Adam - .224x (1.7m)

 - Flash - .158x (1.53m)

 - Morbius - .302x (1.72m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.81m

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Blue Beetle T-7 Jax 5 42 7 81 6,627 1.22%
    Phx 6 43 15 81 8,909 0.91%
    Ral 8 28 11 92 4,226 2.18%
  Total   19 113 33 254 19,762 1.29%
Gran Turismo (EA) T-10 Jax 4 4 0 0 821 0.00%
    Phx 4 4 2 2 544 0.37%
    Ral 2 2 0 0 155 0.00%
  Total   10 10 2 2 1,520 0.13%
  T-8 Jax 4 4 0 0 821 0.00%
    Phx 4 4 0 0 544 0.00%
    Ral 2 2 4 6 155 3.87%
  Total   10 10 4 6 1,520 0.39%
  T-9 Jax 4 8 2 2 1,642 0.12%
    Phx 4 8 0 0 1,098 0.00%
    Ral 2 4 6 6 310 1.94%
  Total   10 20 8 8 3,050 0.26%
Strays T-7 Jax 6 15 3 21 1,897 1.11%
    Phx 6 23 4 22 3,053 0.72%
    Ral 6 18 2 22 2,703 0.81%
  Total   18 56 9 65 7,653 0.85%
Strays (EA) T-6 Jax 3 3 2 5 352 1.42%
    Phx 3 3 1 2 403 0.50%
    Ral 4 4 2 8 506 1.58%
  Total   10 10 5 15 1,261 1.19%

 

Strays (Total) T-7 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.5x (1.25m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .93x (1.02m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .833x (625k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .485x (970k)

 - Violent Night - missed 

 - Turtles (Total) - .1x (560k)

 

Size adjusted average - 941k

 

Blue Beetle T-7 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.54x (3.08m)

 - Bullet Train - .937x (3.14m)

 - Turtles - .825x (3.18m)

 - Suicide Squad - .641x (2.63m)

 - Shazam 2 - .512x (1.74m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Flash - .17x (1.64m)

 - Morbius - .324x (1.85m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.89m

 

Blue Beetle and Last Voyage were both at 254 tickets sold today.  

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