The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Bob Train]

Disney desperate for that $300m for TLM

[Porthos]

On 8/17/2023 at 12:26 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Blue Beetle Sacto Report [T-1]

1140/18331 [6.22% sold] [+348 tickets]

 

0.36145x Black Adam               [2.75m]
1.06642x Shazam 2                  [3.73m]
0.38934x Fast X                       [2.92m]
1.16208x Elemental                  [2.79m]
0.31518x Flash                          [3.06m]
0.80056x Haunted Mansion    [2.48m]

 

===

 

Pretty decent review bounce locally.  All comps rose, most by a good amount.  Even Shazam 2's comp rose .3m.  If Sacto is indicative (and, remember, no promises from Q&D's), 3m+ looks to be very likely.  

 

3.5m+?   Well, let's see how walkups are tomorrow.

 

Quick and Dirty Blue Beetle Sacto Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:15pm]

(showtimes before 4:00pm sampled at start of showing)

1832/18418 [9.952% sold] [+692 tickets]

 

0.40765x Black Adam T-0                [3.10m]
1.10162x Shazam 2 T-0                    [3.75m]
0.44444x Fast X T-0                        [3.33m]
0.95916x Elemental T-0                   [2.30m]
0.34391x Flash T-0                           [3.34m]
0.79618x Haunted Mansion at T-0  [2.47m]

 

===

 

No real sign of a breakout locally, as there were pretty average walkups today.  Haunted Mansion and Elemental comps are sticking out like sore thumbs, but those should have been more kids heavy than BB (Elemental especially) and I think Haunted Mansion just over-performed locally.

 

Do think it's probably doing better than Shazam 2, but only just.  So let's go with 3.6m +/- .3m  and call it a day.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Porthos

[CJohn]

18 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Additional re-expansions/re-releases coming for the weekend of National Cinema Day (Aug 25-27):

 

-Asteroid City, Dungeons & Dragons, Super Mario Bros., and Transformers: RotB will all be returning/re-expanding (will vary by location)

 

-The Little Mermaid '23 returns with a Sing-Along version

DnD finally getting to 100M.

 

TLM finally getting to 300M.

 

I am joking, neither will get there.

[Tinalera]

Equalizer 3

Vancouver and Calgary Canada 

Aug 31 and Sept 1

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	10	9	1482	1388	0.0064
	Fri	3	10	2	1789	1791	0.0011
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	7	2	1257	1259	0.0015
	Fri	2	12	3	2099	2102	0.0014

 

 

Going to try Toronto-Montreal tomorrow and PRAY there are at least double digits counts in some of the auditoriums....hell high singles will do! 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Do think it's probably doing better than Shazam 2, but only just.  So let's go with 3.6m +/- .3m  and call it a day.

Shazam 2 had spring break in some states so its better to ignore. IIRC Sacto comps were $2.5M ish for S2 while Phoenix MiniTC2 were $5-6M due to Spring break.

[tonytr87]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

DnD finally getting to 100M.

 

TLM finally getting to 300M.

 

I am joking, neither will get there.

 

TLM will. 

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Back on the Strip T-1: 22.03% Awareness

Golda T-8: 17.07% Awareness

Bottoms T-15: 14.84% Awareness

The Nun II T-22: 43.87% Awareness

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-43: 31.93% Awareness

The Marvels T-85: 47.59% Awareness

Drive Away Dolls T-190: 16.17% Awareness

 

Blue Beetle T-1: 43.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 11% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

 

Strays T-1: 48.89% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Gran Turismo T-8: 40.36% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

[HummingLemon]

On Twitter Jat is saying $3M ish previews and a $25-30M weekend. 

[Mojoguy]

7 hours ago, CJohn said:

DnD finally getting to 100M.

 

TLM finally getting to 300M.

 

I am joking, neither will get there.

Barbie finally getting to 600M

[JD Asencio]

8 hours ago, datpepper said:

Re-expansiones/reestrenos adicionales para el fin de semana del Día Nacional del Cine (25-27 de agosto):

 

-Asteroid City, Dungeons & Dragons, Super Mario Bros. y Transformers: RotB regresarán/se expandirán (varían según la ubicación)

 

-La Sirenita '23 regresa con una versión Sing-Along

Will they only return for those three days? what is the goal of this?

[misterpepp]

Just now, JD Asencio said:

Will they only return for those three days?

 

Should be for the full week.

[HummingLemon]

2 minutes ago, JD Asencio said:

Will they only return for those three days? what is the goal of this?

For Mermaid it's to push it above $300M

[DAJK]

Blue beetle looking like 3M from my comps across a handful of Canadian theaters (in BC). Not sure if Canada is expected to under index compared to the US due to Latino/Hispanic audiences but it’s encouraging that this could manage 3-3.5+ tonight.

[vafrow]

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-14, southern Ontario

 

Ticket sales were only at 2 when I discovered they were available for sale on Wednesday. They're now at 53, which seems like a decent baseline for something that's not going to have a lot of up front demand.

 

Using the only true regional comp I now have

 

0.488x* of Blue Beetle for $1.7M**

 

*I don't have a T-14 count for BB, so I'm using an average of T-13 and T-15.

 

**I'm using $3.5M for Blue Beetle until we get a confirmed number later today.

 

I'm not going to bother with trying to adjust a local comp for this, as I don't have anything that is really a good comparable to make it worthwhile.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/11/2023 at 7:54 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Barbie	3,394	77,429	-8.70%	73,026	625.08	4,403	0	0
Ninja Turtles	3,228	59,235	-20.45%	48,582	376.11	10,653	0	7,357
Meg 2: The Trench	2,899	48,506	-14.06%	40,082	441.91	8,424	0	7,136
Oppenheimer	3,078	40,298	-4.53%	35,906	689.94	4,392	3,503	0
The Last Voyage	2,280	37,259		37,224		35	0	0
Haunted Mansion	2,518	31,129	-22.70%	31,068	228.77	61	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,327	24,453	-4.87%	24,442	294.51	11	0	0
Talk to Me	2,102	24,088	-15.16%	24,068	220.92	20	0	0
M:I 7	1,833	17,547	-14.00%	17,498	324.00	49	0	0
Jules	752	12,726		12,726		0	0	0
Elemental	573	3,953	-32.54%	3,819	225.36	134	0	121
Indiana Jones	583	3,821	-27.78%	3,815	301.16	6	0	0
Gran Turismo EA 8/11-8/13	847	3,287		2,848		439	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 37,259 (2,280 TC) (5,328 previews)

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701) (3,850 previews)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572) (4,064 previews)

 - Talk to Me - 37,809 (2,113) (5,499 previews)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 930

Strays - 31,750 (2,083 TC) (5,417 previews)

 - 80 for Brady - 30,871 (2,381) (5,963 previews)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 31,725 (2,366) (5,366 previews)

 - Insidious - 31,621 (1,952) (5,785 previews)

 

Blue Beetle - 47,033 (2,293 TC) (9,789 previews)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,088 previews)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 47,052 (2,460) (7,633 previews)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (5,790 previews)

 - Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548) (8,081 previews)

 

Gran Turismo EA 8/18-8/20 - 2,712 (687 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo - 6,664 (1,574 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,315 (2,375)

 - Scream VI - 6,937 (2,271)

 - Gran Turismo (Original date) - 7,244 (1,832)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Blue Beetle	3,229	82,394		67,241		15,153	5,044	0
Barbie	3,277	55,059	-28.89%	53,862	436.96	1,197	0	0
Strays	2,849	52,103		52,068		35	0	0
Ninja Turtles	2,937	41,226	-30.40%	37,252	257.90	3,974	0	3,075
Meg 2: The Trench	2,768	33,870	-30.17%	30,579	264.82	3,291	0	3,149
Oppenheimer	2,757	29,861	-25.90%	29,360	466.85	501	203	0
The Last Voyage	2,309	27,937	-12.51%	27,894	174.59	43	0	0
Haunted Mansion	1,918	19,961	-35.88%	19,887	186.23	74	0	0
Sound of Freedom	1,770	15,237	-37.69%	15,228	199.08	9	0	0
Talk to Me	1,591	14,693	-39.00%	14,685	212.40	8	0	0
Back on the Strip	1,265	11,138		11,138		0	0	0
Mission: Impossible	1,371	10,964	-37.52%	10,941	262.44	23	0	0
Jules	603	3,470	-68.12%	3,470	65.98	0	0	0
Gran Turismo EA 8/18-8/20	850	3,421	4.08%	3,398		23	0	0
Elemental	303	2,069	-47.66%	1,980	188.47	89	0	83
Indiana Jones	300	1,974	-48.34%	1,974	241.07	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Strays - 52,103 (2,849 TC) (7,230 previews)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985) (5,131 previews)

 - No Hard Feelings - 55,242 (2,698) (7,970 previews)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846) (7,308 previews)

 

Blue Beetle - 82,394 (3,229 TC) (14,197 previews)

 - Dune - 82,661 (3,318) (9,877 previews)

 - Uncharted - 85,247 (3,358) (11,249 previews)

 - Free Guy - 80,479 (3,318) (8,348 previews)

 - Lost City - 81,686 (3,443) (9,790 previews)

 

Back on the Strip - 11,138 (1,265)

 - Call Jane - 12,049 (972)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 - Father Stu: Reborn - 11,346 (941)

 

Gran Turismo EA - 3,421 (850 TC)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo - 28,544 (2,033 TC)*

 

*Can't really comp since Sunday shows aren't up yet

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Equalizer 2 - 8,619 (1,860 TC)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - John Wick 4 - 9,400 (2,382)

 - Blue Beetle - 7,943 (1,726)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/17/2023 at 9:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-1	Jax	4	4	9	19	821	2.31%
		Phx	4	4	4	9	544	1.65%
		Ral	2	2	6	30	155	19.35%
	Total		10	10	19	58	1,520	3.82%
	T-2	Jax	4	8	5	36	1,642	2.19%
		Phx	4	8	6	36	1,098	3.28%
		Ral	2	4	2	18	310	5.81%
	Total		10	20	13	90	3,050	2.95%
	T-3	Jax	4	5	1	9	712	1.26%
		Phx	4	5	2	7	670	1.04%
		Ral	2	2	5	15	155	9.68%
	Total		10	12	8	31	1,537	2.02%

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	4	36	55	821	6.70%
		Phx	4	4	18	27	544	4.96%
		Ral	2	2	28	58	155	37.42%
	Total		10	10	82	140	1,520	9.21%
	T-1	Jax	4	8	1	37	1,642	2.25%
		Phx	4	8	5	41	1,098	3.73%
		Ral	2	4	10	28	310	9.03%
	Total		10	20	16	106	3,050	3.48%
	T-2	Jax	4	5	3	12	712	1.69%
		Phx	4	5	4	11	670	1.64%
		Ral	2	2	0	15	155	9.68%
	Total		10	12	7	38	1,537	2.47%

 

Pretty good jump for today.  Expecting the same throughout the weekend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/17/2023 at 9:10 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-7	Jax	5	28	5	11	3,574	0.31%
		Phx	6	32	3	13	5,708	0.23%
		Ral	7	26	3	15	3,427	0.44%
	Total		18	86	11	39	12,709	0.31%

 

GT T-7 comps

 - F9 - .04x (287k)

 - MI:7 - .059x (378k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .138x (400k)

 - Turtles - .127x (488k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .252x (679k)

 - Lost City - .195x (488k)

 - Free Guy - .244x (536k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-6	Jax	5	46	10	21	8,609	0.24%
		Phx	6	38	35	48	7,562	0.63%
		Ral	7	30	20	35	4,361	0.80%
	Total		18	114	65	104	20,532	0.51%

 

GT T-6 comps

 - F9 - .1x (709k)

 - MI:7 - .143x (913k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .312x (906k)

 - Turtles - .295x (1.14m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .605x (1.63m)

 - Lost City - .512x (1.28m)

 - Free Guy - .512x (1.13m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.63m

 

Much much better.  Finally got some IMAX and Dolby shows up yesterday and those are actually selling tickets.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/17/2023 at 9:11 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-14	Jax	5	46	12	27	8,308	0.32%
		Phx	6	32	2	31	6,700	0.46%
		Ral	5	28	2	17	5,001	0.34%
	Total		16	106	16	75	20,009	0.37%

 

Equalizer 3 T-14 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .104x (926k)

 - Matrix 4 - .09x (574k)

 - F9 - .132x (934k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-13	Jax	5	46	4	31	8,308	0.37%
		Phx	6	32	1	32	6,700	0.48%
		Ral	6	31	2	19	5,244	0.36%
	Total		17	109	7	82	20,252	0.40%

 

Equalizer 3 T-13 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .103x (918k)

 - Matrix 4 - .089x (569k)

 - F9 - .128x (910k)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .529x (1.77m)

[Shawn Robbins]

3.3 Blue Beetle

1.1 Strays (includes 275k from sneaks)

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

3.3 Blue Beetle

1.1 Strays (includes 275k from sneaks)

Surprised sneaks were that high.  Pretty good results though. A little ahead of my tracking