The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

$100m Taylor Swift looking more and more unlikely

what gave you that impression?? 

[HummingLemon]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

what gave you that impression?? 

Sales are slowing down, Jat said sub 100 is possible

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Sales are slowing down, Jat said sub 100 is possible

 

In an infinite universe, lots of things are possible.  But sub-100m OW for TET?  I remain skeptical, I'll put it that way.

[HummingLemon]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

In an infinite universe, lots of things are possible.  But sub-100m OW for TET?  I remain skeptical, I'll put it that way.

Or let's just say "fuck it 300m ow"

[eman92]

Saw X T-7 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Saw X added 1 additional screening to Thursday, and 2 additional screenings to each weekend day, as it received Dolby screenings. This is the breakdown I'm showing on T-7. Saw X made some nice ground on Thursday, doubling its initial ticket sales on Thursday. Made solid progress on Friday, but had a slow Saturday, and Sunday it had no new sales at all. I'd say this is tracking very nicely still with The Nun II. I'm thinking that I could see Thursday and Friday track very well for Saw as fans will rush out to see the movie right away and I could see a bigger than usual drop on Saturday and Sunday.

 

T-7	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	27	40
Friday	23	21
Saturday	8	19
Sunday	3	2
Total	61	82

 

 

(1.48) of The Nun II ~$4.59M THUR Previews

(1.34) of The Nun II ~$43.82M WEEKEND incl Previews

 

I'm very interested to see how this weekend goes in terms of tracking for Saw X! I'm also fairly certain they'll add potentially even more showtimes which should help. 

 

Also not sure if this is a good indication as I've never really tracked trailer views or know if it has any correlation to BO. But the Saw X trailer on Youtube has been picking up a lot of views in the past few days. But this is what I've roughly seen for the trailer for views in the past few days:

20M - Monday 2:00 PM
20.3M - Tuesday

21M - Wednesday

22.3M - Thursday

 

The trailer has been picking up momentum this past week. These are rough estimates as when I saw it hit 20M I've just been periodically checking the totals randomly on each day. Do trailers typically see huge jumps in viewership of 1M+ a day as it gets closer to the release?

Edited September 22, 2023 by eman92

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11084	18739	7655	40.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

22

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	87.20		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	36.25%		31.39m	45.52m
BP2	131.76		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	45.57%		36.89m	53.49m
AM3	199.09		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	73.08%		34.84m	50.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2237/6150  [36.37% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11052	18739	7687	41.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

32

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	85.92		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	36.40%		30.93m	44.85m
BP2	129.24		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	45.76%		36.19m	52.47m
AM3	193.92		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	73.38%		33.94m	49.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2240/6150  [36.42% sold]

[vale9001]

a kinda of new barbenheimer could have pushed both movie for me was Napoleon + Wonka on the same day.

 

Chalamet is an actor in a lot of a-list directors movies. The paddington movies are respected by cinephiles.

Napoleon is a ridley scott movie with Phoenix.

 

so one it's like a movie for kids could be also appealing to adults movie lovers (kinda like barbie) and the other an historical adult drama from a respected male director (like oppenhaimer).

 

 

 between the movies from year to the end of year was like the most "barbenheimer combination" to me. 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by vale9001

[JustLurking]

5 hours ago, Relevation said:

Gonna explore the question of where TS:Eras comps could end at in this post.

 

It’s been on a slow decline in comps every day for the last few weeks and the current T-# comps (with a 1.45x adjustment to calculate for ATP) have it at $45-54M FRI at @Porthos’s market and $60M FRI at @TheFlatLannister’s market. The bleeding appears to have been stopped in Orlando with comps stabilizing while Sacramento continues to slowly slide. Looking at these, I think heading into T-7 we can expect a roughly 3% rate of daily decline every day assuming Taylor doesn’t start some massive promo push. That’s 16 days of straight daily declines of 3% which would result in erosion of 40% by the time we get to T-7. So I predict we’ll be sitting around like $27-37M at T-7. From there it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens with that final week. Are there huge walkups as more casual fans buy their tickets? Does Taylor begin promoting it leading to higher awareness? Do comps just collapse? 
 

I do not think comps will collapse since there are still a huge contingent of casual Taylor fans who aren’t gonna buy the tickets at jump but still want to go, but it really depends as to how strong the late game sales are. I think there are 4 potential scenarios.

 

SCENARIO #1 - COMPS CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER

For curiosity’s sake, let’s say comps just continue sliding further at their slow descent. In this scenario, comps continue sliding at the 3% rate of decline which would probably end comps at $22-30M for FRI. That off a 4.5-5x IM for Friday would probably yield a $110-135M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #2 - COMPS HOLD STEADY

In this outcome, let’s say that the walkups for The Eras Tour are just as straightforward as a normal MCU blockbuster and ergo, comps remain steady. If comps hold up around $27-37M for FRI then a 4.5-5x IM from Friday would result in an opening weekend for The Eras Tour of about $135-167M.

 

SCENARIO #3 - COMPS SEE SOME GROWTH

Now let’s explore the scenario in which the walkups for the Eras Tour do come in moderately strong force. The more casual fans decide to start buying their tickets late, the hype for the concert movie hits more of a pitch, and it can manage some moderate 5% daily growth heading into T-0. This would result in a strong 40% gain over that last week and bring comps back up to $38-52M for FRI. A 4.5-5x IM off that would get this to a massive $190-234M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #4 - COMPS SURGE WITH INSANE WALKUPS

And finally, let’s explore the optimistic scenario where Taylor Swift decides to put her full marketing force towards this concert movie. The casual fans come out in full force to buy tickets in the final week, the anticipation spikes, and the comps surge with 7.5% daily growth in the final week. That would send comps soaring 67% in the last week to a $45-62M FRI. And that gargantuan total off a 4.5x to 5x IM would send this to a $225-280M opening weekend.

 

In conclusion, I don’t think we can definitively rule out any of those scenarios from occurring when this movie reaches its final week because it depends on a myriad of X factors that we simply don’t know yet. However, I think I’ve explored the 4 potential paths this could take in that last week to hopefully get a sense of what this could do as that Oct 13 release looms.

I don't see the bleeding having stopped in orlando either, the GOTG3 comp is still falling every single day

 

if your scenario 1 comes through then I honestly don't see even 100M being a thing fwiw, I have no idea how you're getting this to 110M if friday falls off all the way to 22M, if that happens jat would be completely right and this would miss 100 handily imho

 

I assume this'll stabilise somewhat and not fall off that hard but I think your scenarios 3 and 4 just look unreasonable, find me on the middle of scenario 2

Edited September 22, 2023 by JustLurking

[vafrow]

5 hours ago, Relevation said:

Gonna explore the question of where TS:Eras comps could end at in this post.

 

It’s been on a slow decline in comps every day for the last few weeks and the current T-# comps (with a 1.45x adjustment to calculate for ATP) have it at $45-54M FRI at @Porthos’s market and $60M FRI at @TheFlatLannister’s market. The bleeding appears to have been stopped in Orlando with comps stabilizing while Sacramento continues to slowly slide. Looking at these, I think heading into T-7 we can expect a roughly 3% rate of daily decline every day assuming Taylor doesn’t start some massive promo push. That’s 16 days of straight daily declines of 3% which would result in erosion of 40% by the time we get to T-7. So I predict we’ll be sitting around like $27-37M at T-7. From there it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens with that final week. Are there huge walkups as more casual fans buy their tickets? Does Taylor begin promoting it leading to higher awareness? Do comps just collapse? 
 

I do not think comps will collapse since there are still a huge contingent of casual Taylor fans who aren’t gonna buy the tickets at jump but still want to go, but it really depends as to how strong the late game sales are. I think there are 4 potential scenarios.

 

SCENARIO #1 - COMPS CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER

For curiosity’s sake, let’s say comps just continue sliding further at their slow descent. In this scenario, comps continue sliding at the 3% rate of decline which would probably end comps at $22-30M for FRI. That off a 4.5-5x IM for Friday would probably yield a $110-135M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #2 - COMPS HOLD STEADY

In this outcome, let’s say that the walkups for The Eras Tour are just as straightforward as a normal MCU blockbuster and ergo, comps remain steady. If comps hold up around $27-37M for FRI then a 4.5-5x IM from Friday would result in an opening weekend for The Eras Tour of about $135-167M.

 

SCENARIO #3 - COMPS SEE SOME GROWTH

Now let’s explore the scenario in which the walkups for the Eras Tour do come in moderately strong force. The more casual fans decide to start buying their tickets late, the hype for the concert movie hits more of a pitch, and it can manage some moderate 5% daily growth heading into T-0. This would result in a strong 40% gain over that last week and bring comps back up to $38-52M for FRI. A 4.5-5x IM off that would get this to a massive $190-234M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #4 - COMPS SURGE WITH INSANE WALKUPS

And finally, let’s explore the optimistic scenario where Taylor Swift decides to put her full marketing force towards this concert movie. The casual fans come out in full force to buy tickets in the final week, the anticipation spikes, and the comps surge with 7.5% daily growth in the final week. That would send comps soaring 67% in the last week to a $45-62M FRI. And that gargantuan total off a 4.5x to 5x IM would send this to a $225-280M opening weekend.

 

In conclusion, I don’t think we can definitively rule out any of those scenarios from occurring when this movie reaches its final week because it depends on a myriad of X factors that we simply don’t know yet. However, I think I’ve explored the 4 potential paths this could take in that last week to hopefully get a sense of what this could do as that Oct 13 release looms.

 

Thanks for putting something like this together. 

 

I agree with others that we can't really say the Orlando market comp has stabilized. It's a slower decline than Sacramento, but it's still there.

 

We're also usif GOTG3 as the comp which had one pf the strongest late surges for a recent MCU movie. At this stage of the cycle, it was in free fall. It's likely that TET will continue to fall against comp during that late stage period.

 

I also think the IM rates may be a bit high. 3.0-4.0x is more what I'm expecting. 

 

With no Thursday previews and evening shows only, I figure it'll perform similarly to a second weekend of a fall movie with respect to internal multiplier.

 

Black Adam last year was a 3.7x IM it's second weekend. BP:WF had a similar second weekend multiplier.

 

Avatar The Way of Water gives probably the top end, as a longer film that tended towards Saturdays and Sundays due to length and more plf capacity, once it got to it's normal January had a multiplier of 4.0. 

 

That feels like the max, especially since even with capacity issues and late start, it's still an opening weekend which will have the opening day rush. I'm penciling in 3.0-3.5x.

 

[vafrow]

On 9/21/2023 at 4:49 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-24 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,306

New Sales: 53

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,365

Percentage of seats sold: 66.9%

Tickets per showtime: 175.3

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Another slow day. Nothing much else to date until we see some sort of movement.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-22 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,345

New Sales: 39

Growth from yesterday 0.2%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,365

Percentage of seats sold: 66.3%

Tickets per showtime: 173.9

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

A couple of interesting points, I must have miscounted my days to release, as yesterdays was labeled as T-24, but it should have been T-23. Problem started around T-26 it seems.

 

In terms of new sales, this is the new low mark at 39, or 0.2% growth.

 

Also, one theatre added a late 11:00pm show. It hasn't sold a ticket yet. I'm wondering though if we may see others if they officially cancel the matinees soon.

[Hilts]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:33 PM, Hilts said:

 

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	19	53	0	6	39	9,902	0.39%
T-4	21	56	0	10	49	10,134	0.48%
T-3	21	56	0	10	59	10,134	0.58%
T-2	23	61	0	8	67	10,573	0.63%
T-1	23	63	0	31	98	10,573	0.93%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.209x	=	$0.67m
The Nun II					0.308x	=	$0.96m
The Equalizer 3					0.191x	=	$0.73m
A Haunting In Venice					0.488x	=	$0.54m
No Hard Feelings					0.415x	=	$0.89m
Gran Turismo					0.456x	=	$0.64m

 

Comp average: $740k. An improvement finally. Maybe it has decent walkups tomorrow and makes it to $1m but not convinced.

 

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	21	56	0	10	49	10,134	0.48%
T-3	21	56	0	10	59	10,134	0.58%
T-2	23	61	0	8	67	10,573	0.63%
T-1	23	63	0	31	98	10,573	0.93%
T-0	24	64	0	157	255	10,661	2.39%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.257x	=	$0.82m
The Nun II					0.350x	=	$1.08m
The Equalizer 3					0.231x	=	$0.88m
A Haunting In Venice					0.710x	=	$0.78m
No Hard Feelings					0.475x	=	$1.02m
Gran Turismo					0.733x	=	$1.03m

 

Comp average: $940k. I would guess Lionsgate round up and call $1m on this.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11052	18739	7687	41.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

32

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	85.92		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	36.40%		30.93m	44.85m
BP2	129.24		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	45.76%		36.19m	52.47m
AM3	193.92		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	73.38%		33.94m	49.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2240/6150  [36.42% sold]

If you have time I would be curious if you had any comps with a more similar daily new sales to Eras Tour. Just for another idea of where it's likely to end.

[jeffthehat]

On 9/19/2023 at 10:27 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-24

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5399

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 30.9%

New sales - 47 (+0.9%)

3-day average of new sales - 29.7 tickets/day

 

Growing at a snail's pace now. But not surprising given the lack of promotion. I went to one of these theaters on Sunday and didn't see a single poster for it. 

 

Also, what's the best estimate of where OW presales stand? Deadline was cryptic in the last update. My sample is up 19% from T-37 to now (missing the first week when growth was highest). And I think Porthos is up ~45% since first day. If first day sales were $50m, should be close to $70m... but that seems high

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-21 

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105 

Seats sold - 5550

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 31.5%

New sales - 151 (+2.8%)

3-day average of new sales - 50.3 tickets/day

 

Looking forward, I see this finishing anywhere between 7000-10k tickets sold at T-1. After walkups I think 10k+ is likely. Should finish around 50% capacity, I think. Can't see it doing worse nationwide (will likely be better)

 

Assuming there are 24k-28k shows nationwide at final, that puts OD range at $42m-$49m on 50% capacity. 

 

From there I'm expecting a multi a little better than the BTS movie in February (3.7x) due to spillover from full Fri shows. So I'm sticking with $155m-$205m OW range. 

 

Also, think you need to be cautious looking at pace of comps at this point. It's a different genre with no precedent. Lack of promo and no refunds could be pushing demand closer to release date. No way to tell. 

 

 

[vale9001]

i think the very interesting special factor of the TS concert is there is not possibily of refund, more than prices, numbers of showing and others factors.

 

If i'm an hardcore fan i know i'm gonna spend the 13 october night that way at least of some very unexpected event.

 

If i'm just a casual person interested on it i'm not gonna buy a tickets 45 days before...how i know what i will do 45 days from now, what friends are gonna be interested or free on that weekend etc... I mean a ticket is 20-25 dollars, you don't waste them.

These people are gonna buy it last minute. 

 

I would say the fact previews were so big with this factor make them more even more impressive. But this is the music live audience, they can make this for tickets way more expansive than these. Movie audiences are different and it's not a concert with just 60K tickets for a 5M city area. There are 500K potential tickets for a 5M area so why do you have to buy a very expensive ticket you can't refund one month before?. 

Walks up for this are unpredictable. 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by vale9001

[JustLurking]

I'll be honest and say that I think "no refunds" impacts very little imho, the people who buy tickets this far out are the big fans, they know what they'll do on that date because they'll clear their schedule for it.

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'll be honest and say that I think "no refunds" impacts very little imho, the people who buy tickets this far out are the big fans, they know what they'll do on that date because they'll clear their schedule for it.

 

Yeah the hardcore fans already bought It. Then there Is the average 50 years old man buying 4 tickets for him and her daughters. He doesn't need to spend 100 dollars with no refund now. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by vale9001

[Shawn Robbins]

$750K Expend4bles

[JustLurking]

12 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Yeah the hardcore fans already bought It. Then there Is the average 50 years old man buying 4 tickets for him and her daughters. He doesn't need to spend 100 dollars with no refund now. 

these people don't buy a month out with or without a refund

[vafrow]

30 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

i think the very interesting special factor of the TS concert is there is not possibily of refund, more than prices, numbers of showing and others factors.

 

If i'm an hardcore fan i know i'm gonna spend the 13 october night that way at least of some very unexpected event.

 

If i'm just a casual person interested on it i'm not gonna buy a tickets 45 days before...how i know what i will do 45 days from now, what friends are gonna be interested or free on that weekend etc... I mean a ticket is 20-25 dollars, you don't waste them.

These people are gonna buy it last minute. 

 

I would say the fact previews were so big with this factor make them more even more impressive. But this is the music live audience, they can make this for tickets way more expansive than these. Movie audiences are different and it's not a concert with just 60K tickets for a 5M city area. There are 500K potential tickets for a 5M area so why do you have to buy a very expensive ticket you can't refund one month before?. 

Walks up for this are unpredictable. 

 

 

On the no refund thing, I'm uncertain as to the impact in my area.

 

Cineplex is notoriously difficult for refunds purchased online. Sometimes they're accommodating, sometimes not. Last time I wanted a refund, I was told they would only do so after the show, so they can tell if I didn't use the ticket. 

 

However, because sales have been so slow, I've seen certain shows go backwards on sales, by one or two tickets. This is a show that's been at 275 for about a week, and now 273 for the last few days. Someone clearly got a refund. 

 

So, I'm not sure how much it's driving behavior in my area. The US chains seem to have a more flexibility policy around cancellations though usually, so it could be a deterrent there, but, daily sales during this slow stretch has been around the same or worse than anything in US regions.

[CJohn]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$750K Expend4bles

 

 

 

B

BOMBOMB

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