The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dobrevv]

latest rumor about eras tour movie

Edited September 20, 2023 by dobrevv

[Hilts]

Weekend Box Office Forecast: EXPEND4BLES Aims to Lead a Sluggish Late September Frame - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 24	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Expend4bles	Lionsgate	$11,700,000	$11,700,000	~3,400	NEW
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$8,900,000	$70,000,000	~3,600	-39%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$7,700,000	$27,200,000	~3,305	-46%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$4,400,000	$80,900,000	~3,400	-39%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	Focus Features	$3,100,000	$23,900,000	~3,300	-35%
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$3,000,000	$630,300,000	~3,000	-21%
It Lives Inside	NEON	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	~2,200	NEW
Blue Beetle	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,700,000	$69,800,000	~2,200	-32%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	Paramount Pictures	$1,500,000	$116,200,000	~2,000	-26%
Dumb Money	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,400,000	$1,700,000	~675	532%
Gran Turismo	Sony Pictures	$1,400,000	$41,700,000	~1,800	-41%
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	$1,400,000	$321,100,000	~1,500	-33%

[Hilts]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Man, that is gonna be an interesting one given the.... How should I put it — disparate predictions when it comes to interest in the flick.

 

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

FNAF is the last potential $100m opener of the year.

 

Hope I don't derail the thread but I literally have no awareness about FNAF. Are we expecting there to be a huge presale rush and massive frontloading, like an "event" film similar to TET albeit on a much smaller scale? Is $100m OW / DOM actually realistic? I am quite intrigued to track it for sure as it seems quite unknown.

[Porthos]

44 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

 

Hope I don't derail the thread but I literally have no awareness about FNAF. Are we expecting there to be a huge presale rush and massive frontloading, like an "event" film similar to TET albeit on a much smaller scale? Is $100m OW / DOM actually realistic? I am quite intrigued to track it for sure as it seems quite unknown.

 

There is a group of folks on this board (mostly gamers, from what I can tell) that is very high on FNAF.  Whether it's another Pikachu (or even Cocaine Bear) or more like a (very) mini version Barbie we'll find out fairly soon.

 

I personally am not trying to prejudge one way or the other, but I will be at least a little surprised if it is indeed a breakout — but I'm at least allowing for the possibility.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Porthos

[Mojoguy]

40 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

 

Hope I don't derail the thread but I literally have no awareness about FNAF. Are we expecting there to be a huge presale rush and massive frontloading, like an "event" film similar to TET albeit on a much smaller scale? Is $100m OW / DOM actually realistic? I am quite intrigued to track it for sure as it seems quite unknown.

I think the best FNAF can hope for is M3GAN numbers? Seems like it doesn't have much going for it except the memes. Also Pea**** day to date release is going to kill legs 

[Mulder]

Maybe if FNAF wasn't going to Peacock I'd buy into the breakout hype, but that Peacock day and date release is going to kneecap it. The only people who are going to go out to see it in theaters will be the dedicated diehards. I'm thinking 30-40 for it personally.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Saw X tickets on sale now! 

[Ezen Baklattan]

53 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Saw X tickets on sale now! 

At one of my local theaters it already passed all of The Creator's Thursday sales, though neither have done an awful lot.

[Krissykins]

I think FNAF would be extremely frontloaded even without peacock. But it’ll make it worse for sure. 
 

It’s hard to judge if it’s really popular or just very “online”. 

[TomThomas]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Saw X tickets on sale now! 

Could do 20+ mln.

[Hilts]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:53 PM, Hilts said:

 

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	19	53	0	14	33	9,902	0.33%
T-5	19	53	0	6	39	9,902	0.39%
T-4	21	56	0	10	49	10,134	0.48%
T-3	21	56	0	10	59	10,134	0.58%
T-2	23	61	0	8	67	10,573	0.63%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.191x	=	$0.61m
The Nun II					0.315x	=	$0.98m
The Equalizer 3					0.181x	=	$0.69m
A Haunting In Venice					0.406x	=	$0.45m
No Hard Feelings					0.356x	=	$0.77m
Gran Turismo					0.387x	=	$0.54m

 

Comp average: $670k. In freefall. For reference Ruby Gillman sold more here at T-2.

 

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	19	53	0	6	39	9,902	0.39%
T-4	21	56	0	10	49	10,134	0.48%
T-3	21	56	0	10	59	10,134	0.58%
T-2	23	61	0	8	67	10,573	0.63%
T-1	23	63	0	31	98	10,573	0.93%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.209x	=	$0.67m
The Nun II					0.308x	=	$0.96m
The Equalizer 3					0.191x	=	$0.73m
A Haunting In Venice					0.488x	=	$0.54m
No Hard Feelings					0.415x	=	$0.89m
Gran Turismo					0.456x	=	$0.64m

 

Comp average: $740k. An improvement finally. Maybe it has decent walkups tomorrow and makes it to $1m but not convinced.

[Hilts]

On 9/19/2023 at 9:00 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-28	19	154	0	58	10,939	28,259	38.71%
T-27	19	154	0	73	11,012	28,259	38.97%
T-26	20	159	0	49	11,061	28,656	38.60%
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.124x	=	$23.72m
Oppenheimer					2.283x	=	$23.97m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.686x	=	$26.54m
T-24 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					25.791x	=	$28.37m

 

Maybe not quite at the bottom of the curve yet.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-27	19	154	0	73	11,012	28,259	38.97%
T-26	20	159	0	49	11,061	28,656	38.60%
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-23	20	163	0	59	11,175	28,984	38.56%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.130x	=	$23.85m
Oppenheimer					2.295x	=	$24.10m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.705x	=	$26.68m
T-23 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					24.669x	=	$27.14m

 

My oh my did it take forever today to pull these numbers, a certain popular ticketing site needs to sort it out. Anyways a slightly stronger day today than of late.

[vafrow]

Saw X, Thursday previews, D1 (~24 hrs), T-8, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 125

Theatre coun: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 1.7

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

D1, T-8 comp

5.208x Nun 2 for $16.1M

 

T-8 comps

0.833x of Equalizer 3 for $3.2M

0.566x of Blue Beetle for $1.9M

 

So, this is off to a hot start. I wasn't expecting it. I wasn't going to track until I saw that it was selling surprisingly well.

Edited September 20, 2023 by vafrow

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	414	28131	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.458x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.51M THUR Previews

(0.263x) of RoTB ~$2.31M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.91M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	433	28131	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.463x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.53M THUR Previews

(0.271x) of RoTB ~$2.38M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.96M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	320	30115	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

70

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.444x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.69M THUR Previews

(1.317x) of Greek Wedding ~$724K THUR Previews

(0.786x) of Last Voyage ~$589K THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.00M

 

Much better day

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
161	371	31752	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.469x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.78M THUR Previews

(1.279x) of Greek Wedding ~$704K THUR Previews

(0.873x) of Last Voyage ~$655K THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.05M

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	431	25529	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.349x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.08M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	450	25911	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.351x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10986	43473	25.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.818x) of Barbie ~$17.25M FRIDAY for TET

(0.983x) of ATSV~$17.06M FRIDAY for TET

(1.640x) of TLM~$16.89M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.08M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.90M

 

T-24 comps

(2.440x) of GOTG3~$42.69M FRIDAY for TET

 

Falling fast against Guardians comp

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11008	43473	25.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.820x) of Barbie ~$17.30M FRIDAY for TET

(0.985x) of ATSV~$17.09M FRIDAY for TET

(1.643x) of TLM~$16.93M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.11M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.95M

 

T-24 comps

(2.395x) of GOTG3~$41.91M FRIDAY for TET

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8 *first few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	231	25865	0.89%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.865x) of Nun II ~$2.68M THUR Previews

(0.578x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.19M THUR Previews

(1.848x) of Boogeyman ~$2.03M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.3M previews 

 

Defintely a strong start 

Edited September 20, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/19/2023 at 6:12 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	65	14	94	9058	1.04

 

Comps:

0.4x Equalizer 3: $1.51 Million

0.44x The Nun II: $1.37 Million

 

Falling down to Earth here, pitiful growth. Growth rates comp tomorrow should be rough.

 

It Lives Inside (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	28	6	42	2735	1.54

 

Comps:

0.23x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $290k

0.41x Last Voyage of Demeter: $305k

 

Looks like something around ~$250k previews, $800k Opening Day w/ previews, $2 million OW maybe?

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	66	30	124	9317	1.33

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	31.91
3-Day:	85.07

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.38x Equalizer 3: $1.43 Million (57%, 192%)

0.47x The Nun II: $1.46 Million (23%, 128%)

 

As I guessed yesterday, the growth rate comps are reallyyyyyy bad. Looking at something a little closer to it, Gran Turismo's 3-day growth rate was 95%, and that is comping to $1.2M; Haunting in Venice's was 90%, and that comps to a horrible $570k. I don't think walk-ups will be as bad as that one for this, but I can't see enough to be super different from everyone else on here. Let's go with a boring $1 Million, +/- 0.1 prediction for this one.

 

It Lives Inside (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	30	11	53	2995	1.77

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	26.19
3-Day:	60.61

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.17x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $215k (38%, 145%) --> The comp number (not the growth rate) includes T-0 EA sales, which always skews things a bit (speaking of which, if anyone knows the EA numbers for this I'm all ears)

0.38x Last Voyage of Demeter: $288k (34%, 130%)

 

Staying with my prediction yesterday: $250k previews, and since I don't think they'll report them: $800k Opening Day w/ previews, $2 million OW.

Edited September 20, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[misterpepp]

Hocus Pocus 30th Anniversary tix go on sale Sep 26