The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 9/17/2023 at 5:52 PM, vafrow said:

Expendables 4, T-4 evening update, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 104

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 84

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Tickets per showtime: 1.25

 

0.342x Equalizer 3 for $1.3M

0.213x Blue Beetle for $0.7M

 

Just did a quick pull on Expend4bles. More to give myself more data in the future. It doesn't look great, and I'd estimate $1.0M to split the difference, but I also don't have much in the way of expectations on this.

 

Expendables 4, T-2 evening update, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 194

New tickets: 89

Growth since T-4: 85%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 84

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Tickets per showtime: 2

310

 

0.340x Equalizer 3 for $1.3M

0.258x Blue Beetle for $0.7M

0.452x Nun 2 for $1.4M

 

Average: $1.2M

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/18/2023 at 6:22 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	381	28131	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.438x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.45M THUR Previews

(0.253x) of RoTB ~$2.23M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.84M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	414	28131	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.458x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.51M THUR Previews

(0.263x) of RoTB ~$2.31M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.91M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/18/2023 at 6:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	250	30115	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.411x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.56M THUR Previews

(1.096x) of Greek Wedding ~$603K THUR Previews

(0.677x) of Last Voyage ~$508K THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $890K

 

Pretty terrible growth 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	320	30115	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

70

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.444x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.69M THUR Previews

(1.317x) of Greek Wedding ~$724K THUR Previews

(0.786x) of Last Voyage ~$589K THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.00M

 

Much better day

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/18/2023 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	413	25529	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

 

(0.352x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	431	25529	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.349x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.08M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/18/2023 at 6:36 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10975	43473	25.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.818x) of Barbie ~$17.25M FRIDAY for TET

(0.982x) of ATSV~$17.04M FRIDAY for TET

(1.639x) of TLM~$16.88M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.06M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.88M

 

T-25 comps

(2.607x) of GOTG3~$45.62M FRIDAY for TET

 

Pace still isn't picking up at all

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10986	43473	25.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.818x) of Barbie ~$17.25M FRIDAY for TET

(0.983x) of ATSV~$17.06M FRIDAY for TET

(1.640x) of TLM~$16.89M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.08M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.90M

 

T-24 comps

(2.440x) of GOTG3~$42.69M FRIDAY for TET

 

Falling fast against Guardians comp

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	39	13	80	6045	1.32

 

Comps:

0.54x Equalizer 3: $2.07 Million

0.57x The Nun II: $1.76 Million

 

It Lives Inside (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	21	3	36	2064	1.74

 

Comps:

0.27x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $335k

0.52x Last Voyage of Demeter: $391k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	65	14	94	9058	1.04

 

Comps:

0.4x Equalizer 3: $1.51 Million

0.44x The Nun II: $1.37 Million

 

Falling down to Earth here, pitiful growth. Growth rates comp tomorrow should be rough.

 

It Lives Inside (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	28	6	42	2735	1.54

 

Comps:

0.23x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $290k

0.41x Last Voyage of Demeter: $305k

 

Looks like something around ~$250k previews, $800k Opening Day w/ previews, $2 million OW maybe?

[vafrow]

On 9/18/2023 at 7:28 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-10), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 107

New sales: 19

Growth from Saturday (T-12): 22%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 1.07

 

1.092x of Equalizer 3 for $4.1M

 

Not much Intel here. Not great growth, but I lack the comps to give it much context. Still likely overestimating right now.

 

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-9), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 130

New sales: 23

Growth from yesterday (T-10): 21%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 1.30

 

1.111x of Equalizer 3 for $4.2M

0.376x of Blue Beetle for $1.3M

 

Better comps start coming online in a few days. The Blue Beetle comp at least balances out the high Equalizer total.

 

Average of $2.7M

Edited September 20, 2023 by vafrow

[misterpepp]

Five Nights at Freddy's on sale Oct 1

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Five Nights at Freddy's on sale Oct 1

 

Man, that is gonna be an interesting one given the.... How should I put it — disparate predictions when it comes to interest in the flick.

[misterpepp]

And yes, I realize that's weirdly on a Sunday. Flower Moon, also on a Sunday, goes on sale in the evening as I mentioned, likely for a trailer drop? I'm not sure about Freddy, that one goes on sale in the morning. Maybe it just wanted pre-sales running through the entire month of October?

[Porthos]

On 9/19/2023 at 12:12 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11148	18739	7591	40.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	130
Total Seats Sold Today	33

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	91.12		224	8331		0/329	32585/40916	20.36%		21117	35.95%		32.80m	47.56m
BP2	135.10		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	45.18%		37.83m	54.85m
AM3	209.41		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	72.47%		36.65m	53.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2232/6150  [36.29% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11106	18739	7633	40.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

42

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	88.92		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	36.15%		32.01m	46.42m
BP2	133.72		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	45.43%		37.44m	54.29m
AM3	205.30		93	3718		0/235	28808/32526	11.43%		10475	72.87%		35.93m	52.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2233/6150  [36.31% sold]

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-25 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,208

New Sales: 64

Growth from yesterday 0.4%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 174.3

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

New sales among the lowest daily updates at just 0.4%. I know we're in the low end of the U, but it's now been a week of consistently being below 1% growth, and averaging around 0.5% growth. This is a pretty dry stretch.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-24 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,253

New Sales: 45

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,365

Percentage of seats sold: 66.7%

Tickets per showtime: 174.8

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

I've added the figure of total seats available, so we can see percentage of seats sold.

 

Because of a lack of late shows, capacity rate is higher than other chains. Before the matinees got eliminated, there was a lot of available capacity there that got lost for now.

 

If they officially cancel the matinees, I could see them adding more late shows to compensate.

 

Regarding the cancelled matinees, still no update on those at all.

[M37]

9 hours ago, datpepper said:

And yes, I realize that's weirdly on a Sunday. Flower Moon, also on a Sunday, goes on sale in the evening as I mentioned, likely for a trailer drop?

The only thing that makes sense (to me anyway) is a trailer drop during the re-air of Yellowstone, on CBS (as KOtFM is Paramount).  I suppose that’s a decent expected audience overlap, but with NFL dominating ratings, would be odd to not use that platform during the day and just boost later

 

Unless they have a SNF ad buy/trailer 

[abracadabra1998]

48 minutes ago, M37 said:

The only thing that makes sense (to me anyway) is a trailer drop during the re-air of Yellowstone, on CBS (as KOtFM is Paramount).  I suppose that’s a decent expected audience overlap, but with NFL dominating ratings, would be odd to not use that platform during the day and just boost later

 

Unless they have a SNF ad buy/trailer 

SNF trailer seems right, it’s usually the most watched game of the week

[el sid]

Expend4bles, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 54 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 56 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 41 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 44 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 210.

Up 62% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday and in 7 theaters): Angel Has Fallen (1.5M from previews) had 354 sold tickets,
Rambo V (1.3M) had 321,
Plane (435k) had 161,
Creed III (5.45M) had 1.081,

The Meg 2 (3.2M) had 431,
Gran Turismo (1.4M) had 392
and Operation Fortune (220k) had 96 sold tickets.

Retribution (?) had 49 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

Expend4bles, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 92 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 48 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 34 (7 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 202.

Up 50% since Monday. At that low level, that's just not enough.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday and in 7 theaters): Angel Has Fallen (21.4M OW) had 293 sold tickets,
Rambo V (18.9M) had 228,
Plane (10.3M) had 248,
The Equalizer 3 (34.6M) had 558,
Creed III (58.4M) had 1.652,
The Meg 2 (30M) had 486,
Operation Fortune (3.2M) had 98,
The Protégé (2.9M) had 83
and Gran Turismo (13.5M/17.4M) had 204 sold tickets.
Retribution (3.5M) had 70 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

So now between 10-15M OW . The numbers were taken a few hours earlier than normal so my report could look worse than it is. We will know tomorrow.

Edited September 20, 2023 by el sid

[Eric S'ennui]

18 hours ago, CJohn said:

I am currently working on new ways to write BOMB BOMB BOMB for The Expend4bles and The Creator. I am gonna need a whole lot of them.

You could also maybe read a book instead.

[Boxofficerules]

4 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

You could also maybe read a book instead.

READING! ugh!

[Bob Train]

FNAF is the last potential $100m opener of the year.

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-37: 36.51% Awareness

Priscilla T-44: 25%

The Bikeriders T-72: 12.54%

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-91: 52.25%

Ferrari T-96: 18.89%

Argylle T-135: 10.11%

Dune: Part Two T-177: 35.39%

 

Expend4bles T-2: 44.02% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

 

It Lives Inside T-2: 24.82% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

 

Freelance T-37: 30.35% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

[Boxofficerules]

Saw X tickets are on sale now!

Edited September 20, 2023 by Boxofficerules