The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:33 PM, Hilts said:

Comp average: $740k.

 

20 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$750K Expend4bles

 

Ooof. I should have left my T-1 update alone lol.

[Shawn Robbins]

I was baking in $775K earlier this week, so as long as the (relatively) stronger Friday sales weren't misleading, it should still at least get over $10 million. Thursday Night Football didn't do this particular movie any favors.

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

If you have time I would be curious if you had any comps with a more similar daily new sales to Eras Tour. Just for another idea of where it's likely to end.

 

Nothing even vaguely suitable.  Even a JWD comp, which has a similar level of sales now, spits out an unadjusted comp of 76.5m.  Those massive upfront sales for TET just puts a tremendous thumb on the scales.  Even Ava 2, which only started on T-24 and thus is still in its early surge of sales, spits out an, again unadjusted comp of 70.2m.

 

Could bring in GOTG3, I suppose, as that had a higher level of daily sales than TET's current pace but still lower than other MCU fare. That's spitting out 44.6/64.7 un/adj.   It'll still come down, but perhaps not as fast as the others.

 

Anything else I can't remotely see being worthwhile.

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

On the no refund thing, I'm uncertain as to the impact in my area.

 

Cineplex is notoriously difficult for refunds purchased online. Sometimes they're accommodating, sometimes not. Last time I wanted a refund, I was told they would only do so after the show, so they can tell if I didn't use the ticket. 

 

However, because sales have been so slow, I've seen certain shows go backwards on sales, by one or two tickets. This is a show that's been at 275 for about a week, and now 273 for the last few days. Someone clearly got a refund. 

 

So, I'm not sure how much it's driving behavior in my area. The US chains seem to have a more flexibility policy around cancellations though usually, so it could be a deterrent there, but, daily sales during this slow stretch has been around the same or worse than anything in US regions.

 

For any movie you got a very specific advise about no refunds before purchasing tickets. It's very explicit and It can block people are not sure about a date from buying tickets for now (seeing there are a lot of showings and millions of tickets avalaible)

[Porthos]

On 9/16/2023 at 4:42 PM, Porthos said:

 

So I was more curious for my own good and decided to check the Sat totals for the region last night and the Sunday totals for the region this afternoon. The Sunday sample will have some of today's sales, but daily pace really ought to be low enough not to matter at the 30,000 foot level.

 

(and, no, I am *NOT* doing this again any time soon [if ever])

 

Mostly I was curious about Sat, but was also intrigued to see Sun, so...

 

Fri:   7458/18606 (40.08% sold)

Sat:  6679/39008 (17.12% sold) (89.55% of the sales of Friday)

Sun: 4557/38053 (11.98% sold) (61.10% of the sales of Friday) (68.23% of the sales of Saturday)

 

Didn't keep track of PLF information or anything like that, but safe to say there are a lot of them.

 

Seems to line up with what I've seen elsewhere when it comes to current Saturday sales.  Really nice amount of Sunday sales already, as well.

 

 

 

Since we've already established my own levels of (in)sanity, decided to check this again six days later to see how this is doing against the deep U curve than TET is currently in.  

 

(should have waited till [late] tonight to do this to make it one full week, but.... eh)

 

Fri:   7687/18739 (41.02% sold) [+229]

Sat:  6970/39528 (17.63% sold) [+291]  (90.67% of the sales of Friday) [+1.12%]

Sun: 4789/38572 (12.42% sold) [+232] (62.30% of the sales of Friday) [+1.2%] (68.71% of the sales of Saturday) [+0.48%]

 

So some growth for Sat ahead of Fri's pace, while Sun matched Fri more or less.  But since Sun was at an initial lower level, that's still catching up a bit percentage wise.

[vafrow]

48 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

For any movie you got a very specific advise about no refunds before purchasing tickets. It's very explicit and It can block people are not sure about a date from buying tickets for now (seeing there are a lot of showings and millions of tickets avalaible)

 

Given how most chains don't really encourage or promote the idea of refunds, I think most people assume that you can't refund movie tickets as a general rule.

 

It makes me wonder why it was a specific demand from Swifts camp.

 

I was thinking maybe it could be to discourage scalpers (which has been a big criticism of the Eras tour), but it does the opposite. Someone who bought a ticket and then gets a conflict now needs to find a secondary market.

 

I don't believe that Swift and her camp had any concerns about the market demand for this, that they wanted sales locked in. Everything about this release has been based in confidence that her brand is so strong, that they could bypass the studios.

 

It's been such an odd requirement. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Dumb Money T-8: 23.47% Awareness

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-22: 40.58%

Killers of the Flower Moon T-29: 30.27%

The Holdovers T-50: 12.92%

Snow White T-183: 41.58%

 

Expend4bles T-1: 44.79% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

 

It Lives Inside T-1: 24.66% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

 

The Creator T-8: 28.26% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-8: 37.26% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Saw X T-8: 41.96% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

[Tinalera]

Saw X 

Thus Sept 28

Toronto Ontario

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	7	66	2543	2609	0.0252

 

 

Again, no Friday showings yet, just Thurs (weird because its a week away, but again I suspect this is ripple effect of Barbenheimer still filtering out as far as theatres figuring out what screens to use)

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/12/2023 at 3:33 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2065

2629

78.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1991

2492

79.90%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9928	19	18466	53.76%	13	124

 

0.963	Barbie T-0	21.47M
0.646	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	23.26M
0.429	NWH T-0	21.44M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2091

2657

78.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2013

2735

73.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 10 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10306	378	21897	47.07%	13	143

 

0.999	Barbie T-0	22.28M
0.671	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	24.15M
0.445	NWH T-0	22.25M

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/12/2023 at 3:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-31 Friday

97 Showings

8996

+139

15338

ATP:

22.50

0.278	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	10.00M
0.232	NWH Thurs T-0	11.59M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	14.96M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	17.34M

 

T-32 Saturday

160 Showings

11130

+165

24248

ATP:

22.19

0.299	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	16.37M
0.261	NWH Fri T-0	18.77M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	24.80M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	28.43M

 

T-33 Sunday

147 Showings

8658

+192

22183

ATP:

22.03

0.197	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	11.38M
0.172	NWH Sat T-0	12.73M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	17.67M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	19.76M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse [+10 days of sales]

T-21 Friday

97 Showings

9718

+722

15356

ATP:

22.43

0.300	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	10.80M
0.250	NWH Thurs T-0	12.52M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	16.11M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	18.67M

 

T-22 Saturday

177 Showings

12850

+1720

26549

ATP:

22.15

0.345	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	18.90M
0.301	NWH Fri T-0	21.67M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	28.58M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	32.77M

 

T-23 Sunday

157 Showings

10049

+1391

23429

ATP:

21.99

0.228	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	13.21M
0.200	NWH Sat T-0	14.77M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	20.46M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	22.89M

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/12/2023 at 3:35 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-31 Friday

118 Showings

7998

+88

18733

0.557

Barbie T-0 Thursday

12.43M

 

T-32 Saturday

234 Showings

5173

+99

36975

0.201

Barbie T-0 Friday

9.61M

 

T-33 Sunday

225 Showings

2814

+23

35634

0.119

Barbie T-0 Saturday

5.19M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment [+10 days of sales]

T-21 Friday

124 Showings

8746

+748

19380

0.609

Barbie T-0 Thursday

13.59M

 

T-22 Saturday

234 Showings

5778

+605

36975

0.225

Barbie T-0 Friday

10.74M

 

T-23 Sunday

225 Showings

3355

+541

35641

0.141

Barbie T-0 Saturday

6.18M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/21/2023 at 6:21 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	271	25865	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.747x) of Nun II ~$2.31M THUR Previews

(0.659x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.51M THUR Previews

(1.856x) of Boogeyman ~$2.04M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.29M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	346	25865	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.814x) of Nun II ~$2.52M THUR Previews

(0.751x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.85M THUR Previews

(2.247x) of Boogeyman ~$2.47M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.61M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/21/2023 at 6:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	454	25911	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.339x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.05M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	461	25911	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.330x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.02M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/21/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	453	28131	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.475x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.57M THUR Previews

(0.266x) of RoTB ~$2.34M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.96M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	467	28131	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.477x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.57M THUR Previews

(0.256x) of RoTB ~$2.26M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.92M

[Hilts]

Saw X							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	21	55	0	55	55	8,401	0.65%
T-6	21	55	0	33	88	8,401	1.05%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.916x	=	$4.58m
Talk To Me					2.750x	=	$3.42m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.926x	=	$2.96m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.839x	=	$2.13m
The Nun II					0.967x	=	$3.00m
Expend4bles					2.667x	=	$2.00m

 

Comp average: $3.02m

 

Pleasant surprise that this is just trailing Nun and Insidious, let's see if it can keep up.

[Hilts]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:57 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-12	3	3	0	4	15	1,224	1.23%
T-11	3	3	0	0	15	1,224	1.23%
T-10	3	3	0	0	15	1,224	1.23%
T-9	3	3	0	2	17	1,224	1.39%
T-8	3	3	0	5	22	1,224	1.80%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-13	17	43	0	4	82	8,947	0.92%
T-12	17	41	0	3	85	8,675	0.98%
T-11	18	42	0	4	89	8,758	1.02%
T-10	18	42	0	3	92	8,758	1.05%
T-9	19	43	0	9	101	8,760	1.15%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.352x	=	$1.49m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.154x	=	$1.36m
Haunted Mansion					0.606x	=	$1.88m
Strays					1.708x	=	$1.88m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					3.000x	=	$1.65m

 

Slight review bump has reversed the downward trend, hopefully continues.

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	3	3	0	2	17	1,224	1.39%
T-8	3	3	0	5	22	1,224	1.80%
T-7	3	3	0	2	24	1,224	1.96%
T-6	3	3	0	3	27	1,224	2.21%
T-5	3	3	0	4	31	1,224	2.53%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-10	18	42	0	3	92	8,758	1.05%
T-9	19	43	0	9	101	8,760	1.15%
T-8	19	43	0	6	107	8,760	1.22%
T-7	20	45	0	8	115	9,613	1.20%
T-6	20	45	0	7	122	9,394	1.30%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.485x	=	$1.63m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.157x	=	$1.38m
Haunted Mansion					0.507x	=	$1.57m
Strays					1.485x	=	$1.63m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.732x	=	$1.50m

 

Comp average: $1.54m

[Hilts]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:58 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-20	19	72	0	-1	44	15,436	0.29%
T-19	19	72	0	6	50	15,436	0.32%
T-18	20	74	0	2	52	15,606	0.33%
T-17	20	74	0	8	60	15,606	0.38%
T-16	20	74	0	2	62	15,606	0.40%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.574x	=	$1.78m
Barbie					0.071x	=	$1.49m
Asteroid City					0.925x	=	$1.02m
Strays					1.442x	=	$1.59m

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-17	20	74	0	8	60	15,606	0.38%
T-16	20	74	0	2	62	15,606	0.40%
T-15	20	74	0	2	64	15,606	0.41%
T-14	20	74	0	7	71	15,606	0.45%
T-13	20	74	0	11	82	15,606	0.53%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.547x	=	$1.69m
Barbie					0.069x	=	$1.45m
Asteroid City					1.093x	=	$1.20m
Strays					1.708x	=	$1.88m

 

Comp average: $1.56m

[Hilts]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:44 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-27	19	154	0	73	11,012	28,259	38.97%
T-26	20	159	0	49	11,061	28,656	38.60%
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-23	20	163	0	59	11,175	28,984	38.56%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.130x	=	$23.85m
Oppenheimer					2.295x	=	$24.10m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.705x	=	$26.68m
T-23 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					24.669x	=	$27.14m

 

My oh my did it take forever today to pull these numbers, a certain popular ticketing site needs to sort it out. Anyways a slightly stronger day today than of late.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-23	20	163	0	59	11,175	28,984	38.56%
T-22	20	163	0	36	11,211	28,984	38.68%
T-21	20	163	0	43	11,254	28,984	38.83%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.138x	=	$24.02m
Oppenheimer					2.311x	=	$24.27m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.731x	=	$26.87m
T-21 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					22.735x	=	$25.01m

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/18/2023 at 6:51 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	124	183	11753	20694	56.79

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.32x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $29.42 Million

2.42x Oppenheimer at T-1: $25.43 Million

 

Barbie T-25 EA Comp: 17.86x- $19.65 Million (Unadjusted)

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	62	73	234	8126	2.88

 

Comps:

1.37x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $4.24 Million

TMNT: Missed

 

A reminder this is for opening day, this has no previews. Still, doing pretty good.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	125	286	12039	20755	58.01

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.35x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $30.14 Million

2.48x Oppenheimer at T-1: $26.05 Million

 

Barbie T-21 EA Comp: 15.86x- $17.45 Million (Unadjusted)

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	63	257	491	8185	6

 

Comps:

Haunted Mansion: Missed

0.71x TMNT (w/ all EA): $3.89 Million

2.27x TMNT (Just Tuesday): $8.75 Million

 

Average TMNT comps: $6.32 Million

 

Taylor Swift is slowing down because everyone is buying tickets for Paw Patrol, damn! Sadly, my last time I'm able to use the TMNT comp, but Haunted Mansion will persist until the end (and maybe I'll add a Ruby Gilman week of release if it looks helpful). I would think Paw Patrol's walk-ups will not be as strong as other animation movies, but this is looking really nice right now.

[Bobzaruni]

8 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

Yeah the hardcore fans already bought It. Then there Is the average 50 years old man buying 4 tickets for him and her daughters. He doesn't need to spend 100 dollars with no refund now. 

I think this is true for any movie regardless of refunds