The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Jsmitty]

39 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Cineplex has started adding Thursday night shows. Only one theatre in my area so far, but I anticipate more. It's already sold about 10 tickets though.

 

No Friday matinees showing up yet.

 

 

The Landmark in my area has added 1 7 PM show today. About 25 tickets sold so far.

[M37]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

That’s my gut feeling. After the change in sales announcement based on this thread, now the last minute early shows, I get the feeling someone on her team is (or at least is now) a BOT lurker 

 

On 10/10/2023 at 12:01 AM, keysersoze123 said:

its not working. 

 

[vafrow]

For Cineplex in the GTHA, I count 12 Thursday showtimes, all selling well. Same coverage area has 132 showtimes for Friday, and a lot more bigger auditoriums. The app is glitchy, and it it's likely experiencing high traffic right now which may be impacting sales.

 

Unless they add more shows, I expect these to sell out. No location save for one has more than one showtime.

 

No Friday matinees yet.

Edited October 12, 2023 by vafrow

[jeffthehat]

18 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-2 

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 149 (+24)

Seats sold - 8004

Total seats - 23472

% sold - 34.1%

New sales - 408 (+5.1%)

 

Got more new shows than I thought it would. 

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters FRI EVENING T-1

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 149

Seats sold - 8367

Total seats - 23472

% sold - 35.6%

New sales - 363 (+4.5%)

 

Doesn't matter much now but was curious about the kind of bump it would get after the premiere. This is only the Fri evening shows I've been tracking. At my local it sold 16 tickets for Thursday and 20 for Friday since my last update. 

 

How it feels knowing my first track was worthless

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

It could be due to all the publicity this thread has been getting outside this site. Well we always will have regional trackers who are the MVP of this thread anyway. 

[Austin]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

Mind, this is somewhat at the edges as most of the circumstances surrounding The Marvels would happen with TET or without TET.  And those circumstances are faaaaaaaaar beyond the scope of this thread (SEE!!! KEEPING IT ***ON TOPIC*** MODS and AWAY from specific The Marvels discussion!!!! 👍 ).  But I 100% agree that the timing of TET and to a degree FNAF is exasperating the situation.

this is why you're my favorite poster/tracker 😂

[Shawn Robbins]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'm leery to ever predict a drop from one day to the next (true Friday to true Saturday) when the 2nd day has roughly 25-30% more showings/theater, since Friday (for now) is a 2pm start (and that's last minute) and Saturday is a 10am start for most theaters.

 

Remember, the presales were ENORMOUS, so Saturday almost certainly is close to matching Friday presales (if not above them) and has more room to grow for walk ups...

On this point, it looks like the Sat % share of Fri went from around 69% yesterday to around 77% Thu-Sat combined as of this morning. Friday has just been so booked up since the get-go, I think that's affecting all tracking comp paces and really throwing a wrench in extrapolating the weekend as a whole.

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-28):

 

480 tickets sold (10 locs)

 

Comp:

0.75x Oppenheimer = $7.92m

 

 

 

 

[Austin]

15 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Clearly the objective is to pass 100 million and have the biggest debut of all time for a October movie

until FNAF mwhahahahaha

[Bob Train]

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 15	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	~3,850	NEW
The Exorcist: Believer	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$9,000,000	$42,400,000	~3,663	-66%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$7,800,000	$50,900,000	~3,700	-31%
Saw X	Lionsgate	$4,300,000	$39,500,000	~3,200	-45%
The Creator	20th Century Studios	$4,000,000	$32,200,000	~3,100	-36%
The Blind	Fathom Events	$2,100,000	$14,200,000	~1,200	-34%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$1,900,000	$38,900,000	~2,200	-29%
Dumb Money	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,400,000	$13,200,000	~2,300	-34%
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,400,000	$83,500,000	~2,100	-46%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,300,000	$90,900,000	~1,500	-28%

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-taylor-swift-the-eras-tour/

[Eric Lasagna]

Exorcist dropping at 66%...that has to be intentional 🤔

[Cmasterclay]

More like the Errors Tour with these numbers!!

[Eric Lasagna]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

More like the Errors Tour with these numbers!!

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters FRI EVENING T-1

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 149

Seats sold - 8367

Total seats - 23472

% sold - 35.6%

New sales - 363 (+4.5%)

 

Doesn't matter much now but was curious about the kind of bump it would get after the premiere. This is only the Fri evening shows I've been tracking. At my local it sold 16 tickets for Thursday and 20 for Friday since my last update. 

 

How it feels knowing my first track was worthless

 

 

 

 

Look on the bright side!  When we get preview numbers, we should be able to get a decent idea of just what sort of ATP adjustment we really need for all of our Friday tracking!!!

 

[jeffthehat]

2 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters FRI EVENING T-1

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 149

Seats sold - 8367

Total seats - 23472

% sold - 35.6%

New sales - 363 (+4.5%)

 

Doesn't matter much now but was curious about the kind of bump it would get after the premiere. This is only the Fri evening shows I've been tracking. At my local it sold 16 tickets for Thursday and 20 for Friday since my last update. 

 

How it feels knowing my first track was worthless

 

 

 

 

Did a pull for tonight. All theaters have one 6-7 pm show. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters Thursday T-5 hours 

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 24

Seats sold - 440 (5.3% of Fri evening sales)

Total seats - 4036

% sold - 10.9%

 

[Jsmitty]

3 hours ago, Jsmitty said:

The Landmark in my area has added 1 7 PM show today. About 25 tickets sold so far.

 

1 Cineplex in my area has added 1 show tonight the other one has added 2. All between 6:30-8.

 

All selling well it appears.

 

4 showtimes Tonight in the city

16 tomorrow

30 each weekend day as of now

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Jsmitty

[Derpity]

My local theater must be expecting A LOT of walk-ups, they have 16 Taylor Swift showings tonight, and there are currently 70 tickets sold. Multiple have 0 tickets sold.

[Taylor89]

22 minutes ago, Derpity said:

My local theater must be expecting A LOT of walk-ups, they have 16 Taylor Swift showings tonight, and there are currently 70 tickets sold. Multiple have 0 tickets sold.

 

 

I'm sure a lot of walk ups will happen too. 

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 15	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	~3,850	NEW
The Exorcist: Believer	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$9,000,000	$42,400,000	~3,663	-66%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$7,800,000	$50,900,000	~3,700	-31%
Saw X	Lionsgate	$4,300,000	$39,500,000	~3,200	-45%
The Creator	20th Century Studios	$4,000,000	$32,200,000	~3,100	-36%
The Blind	Fathom Events	$2,100,000	$14,200,000	~1,200	-34%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$1,900,000	$38,900,000	~2,200	-29%
Dumb Money	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,400,000	$13,200,000	~2,300	-34%
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,400,000	$83,500,000	~2,100	-46%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,300,000	$90,900,000	~1,500	-28%

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-taylor-swift-the-eras-tour/

 

I think it's the first time i saw Box office pro have a large margin for a OW , otherwise Paw Patrol has a good hold , he seems to have the same legs of Lyle Lyle Crocodile . Finally The Blind is really a other mini-surprise

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Look on the bright side!  When we get preview numbers, we should be able to get a decent idea of just what sort of ATP adjustment we really need for all of our Friday tracking!!!

 

Yes you could have also a overestimation