The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Halberstram]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Took a look around town and.... 

 

11:45am   68/13371    (0.51% sold)

---

The Flash   12:30pm   354/22203 [1.59% sold] [approx]

Shazam 2    6:00pm    92/15543   [0.59% sold] [approx]

 

Okay, so the Good News is this will probably beat Shazam 2's first day of sales locally.  Probably.  I say probably because I took my firstl look of Shazam 2 at around 6pm local time and as of then Shazam 2 was at 92 tickets sold and Aquaman 2 shouldcatch up with it.

 

On the other hand, even though I reported The Flash at around 1:30-ish pm, I took an initial sample about an hour earlier, and I have the estimated ticket sales for 12:30 above and...

 

Well, relative ticket sales says it all. Even if it grows at a decent clip (and as I check literally right now sales are in fact still going up), this looks to be faaaaar closer to Shazam 2 than it is The Flash.  Which is probably not very surprising.

Zaslav is on call with Greta Gerwig and Ryan Gosling to make the Ken Doll spinoff as we speak

[Bob Train]

Blue Beetle-tier previews incoming

[ringedmortality]

Seems like a worst case scenario for Aquaman

[el sid]

Trust me! I overlooked that this movie starts tomorrow. I only noticed it today because of the post of @abracadabra1998. And wondered last week why it doesn't look frontloaded/has a good Thursday-Friday ratio .

Napoleon, counted today for tomorrow/Tuesday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 151 (4 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 12 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 23 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 25 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 21 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 370 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 304 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 906.

Comps (a bit difficult in this case): Death on the Nile had on Wednesday (= 1 day later) for its Wednesday EA shows 179 sold tickets in 3 theaters → Napoleon has in the same 3 theaters 686 sold tickets.
The Creator finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 1.120 sold tickets so Napoleon should ca. be on par by tomorrow.
I didn't count KotFM or The Last Duel on Wednesday for Thursday but TLD had 1 day later (= on Thursday for Thursday) 124 sold tickets (so Napoleon is doing way better in my theaters).
And House of Gucci had on Tuesday for Wednesday (= also 1 day left) 548 sold tickets.

IMO that's a fine number for Napoleon. Strange that its sales in the AMC Sunset Place are the worst of all...the presales in the AMCs in Michigan, Texas and Arizona are ok though (I expected the opposite).

No idea which box office result we should expect on Tuesday but overall the presales for Napoleon were better today than what I expected, especially after the pretty muted jumps last week.

Edited November 20, 2023 by el sid

[dallas]

I'm glad that we're already saying that it's over after like 3 hours of sales 🙄 

[Giorno]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

I'm glad that we're already saying that it's over after like 3 hours of sales 🙄 

he's not saying there's no chance it can't do decently by the end but that the start is not that good considering its a sequel to a billion dollar grosser, similar early checks on the marvels let us know it wasn't gonna sniff previous mcu openings, we can get some idea of how aquaman will open with early sales

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Aquaman 2 vs. The Marvels

Two coughing babies pitted against each other. No hydrogen bombs this holiday season, the one dropped back in July was the last one we had left.

[Valencia]

Collapse of the CBM genre was quick and merciless.

 

Ant-Man 3 opened to $100M+ 9 months ago. 
 

And now $55M or less is the norm for a CBM opening.

 

Crazy.

[wboxoffice]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	66	9400	10153	753	7.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

19

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.74041x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.49m] [1.2x adj]

 

 

Didn't the Taylor Swift movie get announced at the very last minute for the Thursday preview, doesn't it make the comparison less relevant?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by BadOlCatSylvester
Accidental double post

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Gonna be so funny when people are discussing if it can hit Black Adam THU and then the numbers spit out comps of like $3M

[YachtyLogs]

On 11/19/2023 at 1:07 PM, YachtyLogs said:

WONKA

T-25

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

5/1245 - (0.40%)

 

New sold: 2

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Two sales more today, same show as the first ticket that sold. So far sales haven't set the world on fire at the two theaters but slowly they're selling. 

WONKA

T-25

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

5/1245 - (0.40%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

No sales today. Doesn't seem to be catching on *that* well in this area unfortunately.

[dallas]

Even if the movie opens to like $40M or whatever, 5.0x legs (same as the first movie) brings it to $200M total. And it's a CGI heavy James Wan movie so there's a decent chance it'll be OS heavy anyway. I don't think it's as "Joever" as some are saying. 

[Relevation]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

Even if the movie opens to like $40M or whatever, 5.0x legs (same as the first movie) brings it to $200M total. And it's a CGI heavy James Wan movie so there's a decent chance it'll be OS heavy anyway. I don't think it's as "Joever" as some are saying. 

$3-3.5M Thurs would yield an opening of $18-23M assuming a 6-6.5x IM

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Took a look around town and.... 

 

Aquaman 2  11:45am   68/13371    (0.51% sold)

---

The Flash      12:30pm   354/22203 [1.59% sold] [approx]

Shazam 2        6:00pm    92/15543   [0.59% sold] [approx]

 

Okay, so the Good News is this will probably beat Shazam 2's first day of sales locally.  Probably.  I say probably because I took my firstl look of Shazam 2 at around 6pm local time and as of then Shazam 2 was at 92 tickets sold and Aquaman 2 shouldcatch up with it.

 

On the other hand, even though I reported The Flash at around 1:30-ish pm, I took an initial sample about an hour earlier, and I have the estimated ticket sales for 12:30 above and...

 

Well, relative ticket sales says it all. Even if it grows at a decent clip (and as I check literally right now sales are in fact still going up), this looks to be faaaaar closer to Shazam 2 than it is The Flash.  Which is probably not very surprising.

 

 

Edited this in to the above post, but quoting it for visibility as well as Setting Expectations:

 

Took a super quick sample again just now to better align it with The Flash:

Aquaman 2  12:35pm   84/13371    [0.63% sold]

so this will def pass Shazam 2's first day sales locally.  Beyond that?   Yeah, wouldn't expect too much.

 

Will probably just report Quick and Dirty's to this from me, even though I'll probably track the basic seat info on my home sheet because I hate myself for shits and giggles.

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$3-3.5M Thurs would yield an opening of $18-23M assuming a 6-6.5x IM

Why would Aquaman open to less than Shazam ($30.5M) if it's tracking higher? 

[Giorno]

Just now, dallas said:

Why would Aquaman open to less than Shazam ($30.5M) if it's tracking higher? 

Christmas eve deflates the weekend 

[dallas]

2 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Christmas eve deflates the weekend 

True but I still don't think the movie is opening to Blue Beetle numbers. $28-30M is my lowball at the moment. 

[YachtyLogs]

AQUAMAN 2

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

First Day - Afternoon sales

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

3/2861 - (0.10%)

 

New sold: 3

New showtimes: 21

Total showtimes: 21

Seats added: 2861

Total sellouts: 0

 

Alright, I've added two new theaters to sample for this one. And.....sales are abysmal. I don't really have any comparisons yet for what sales should be right now, but only 3 sales...isn't looking too good. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by YachtyLogs

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

 

Didn't the Taylor Swift movie get announced at the very last minute for the Thursday preview, doesn't it make the comparison less relevant?

 

There are no good comparisons for Renaissance is more the point.  Or rather since I never track concert movies *I* don't have any good comparisons for this film, as TET is completely unsuitable until nearly the end of pre-sales due to different sales patterns.  As such I'm simply showing how much Renaissance had earned as a percentage of the final sales for TET previews.

 

Not so much as "this is a comp" as in "this is how much it's potentially earned so far if Sacramento is indicative".  Which, as an aside, it very likely isn't due to the lack of AMCs locally.