The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Kon]

One question, has Wonka sales started, or not?

[CJohn]

18 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

It's cute (in the worst possible sense of that word) to see some people who love cinema (I assume anyone crazy enough to sign up on this obscure corner of the internet loves cinema) laughing at everything flopping and saying stuff like "hah, I hope Hollywood learns a lesson", when I'm pretty sure that:

 

a. The lesson Hollywood will learn from this is certainly going to be wildly different from the one the person saying it wants. (spoiler alert: they'll double down on nostalgia)

 

b. Movie theaters have just endured a horrible couple of years due to COVID and they already know they'll endure a pretty bad 2024 because of reshuffling due to the strikes, and then they see their best season of the year(Thanksgiving to Christmas) going up in smokes before their eyes and they must already be calling their accountants to ask whether they can even survive the next year.

 

 

But yeah, let's laugh, that'll teach 'em

I am not even laughing, this is just sad. I would laugh at the occasional flop, but not when literally everything bombs. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Always expected the sequel to bomb but holidays may push it over $100M.

What a terrible XMAS we are gonna have this year.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Always expected the sequel to bomb but holidays may push it over $100M.

What a terrible XMAS we are gonna have this year.

 

 

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am not even laughing, this is just sad. I would laugh at the occasional flop, but not when literally everything bombs. 

Oh I completely agree, it really wasn’t directed at you, I know you go watch everything and can appreciate the artistic value of most of it.

 

I was honestly just agreeing with your general sad vibe as of late, I think for once you aren’t being overdramatic, sadly.

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Arlborn

[charlie Jatinder]

When did sales start? An initial check of MiniTC2 suggest start smaller than Shazam 2 and Blue Beetle.

[Kon]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I specifically was inferring FNAF (and TET for that matter) when I mentioned the "occasional viral breakout".
 

But I would point out that those two viral breakouts were from outside the Studio System.  One was from the world of video games and with virtually no in-built film fan base and the other from the world of music.

 

Both of those worlds would be less receptive to the anti-buzz forces that are running rampant in the world of entertainment. 

 

Also, calling FNAF "franchise movie" is... Rich, IMO.  It is totally a franchise movie series now.  When it was greenlit?  Not particularly.  IP-based?  Sure.  Not the same thing though.

 

Even so, the occasional viral-based breakout in no way diminishes just how much Hollywood has been handicapped by the dual strikes.  And it's gonna take some amount of time for that damage to be unwound.

 

I said "franchise" movie because it's IP-based. I don't know what other meaning you think I was trying to imply.

 

Honestly, the idea that strikes handicapped Hollywood so much seems an excuse to defend movies fated to bomb (since the beginning).

 

We have a sequel to a 1B movie that will have luck to make 200M. The lack of hype for that movie didn't started by lack of cast promotion.

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Kon

[WorkingonaName]

41 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Who could have known that Aquaman 2 could sink this low? It seems almost fishy.

Movie gonna be sleeping with the fishs at this rate. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Kon said:

 

I said "franchise" movie because it's IP-based. I don't know what other meaning you think I was trying to imply.

 

Honestly, the idea that strikes handicapped Hollywood so much seems an excuse to defend movies fated to bomb (since the beginning).

 

We have a sequel to a 1B movie that will have luck to make 200M. The lack of hype for that movie didn't started by lack of cast promotion.

 

Any one factor doesn't explain it.  But when film after film after film under performs, gonna start thinking that maybe a major disruption to the Hollywood entertainment system is in fact a major factor.

 

Not the only factor, no.  But I am 100 percent convinced it is a major one.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

When did sales start? An initial check of MiniTC2 suggest start smaller than Shazam 2 and Blue Beetle.

 

Looks like 9am Pacific, which is a little later than I thought they did:

 

Might have been a couple of hours earlier though, can't say for sure.

[JimmyB]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Going to keep this ***ON TOPIC*** and talk solely about BUZZ and TRACKING here.

 

People probably don't want to hear this, but...

 

We are just, JUST NOW, exiting a period where the Hollywood Hype Machine — you know one of the things that generates buzz — was not just shut down, but was actively suppressed.  Both by Hollywood and by social media types and other folks elsewhere online who were sympathetic to strikers.

 

Compounding that, the DCEU is in transition.  Everyone knows this.  So even if there was some sort of self-sustaining hype possible outside of the Hollywood Hype Machine, that too has been actively suppressed.  

 

And I do mean the words "actively suppressed" here, as there are real, actual, tangible forces that are acting like anti-buzz, for lack of a better term.

 

Now the transition of the DCEU to the DCU or whatever they're calling it was always gonna put a massive weight on the scales for this movie.  Or be a tremendous headwind.  Pick whatever metaphor one wants, I'm game.

 

But we can not, and should not, just ignore the fact that even if WB/Hollywood wanted to Hype Up this movie the last few months, they really couldn't.  Even if they tried, a decent chunk of the audience wouldn't have been receptive to it.  And that sort of ACTIVE ANTI-BUZZ doesn't go away just like that *snaps fingers* thanks to the SAG strike being (probably) over.

 

So is it really a surprise it is having a soft opening?

Is it really a surprise that MOST films released post July are facing problems?

 

Sure there's been the occasional viral breakout.  But film after film after film has either not reached expectations or had some sort of problem on their rollout.  Maaaaaaaaaaaybe there's a reason for that.

Movies were flopping or unperforming before the strike. 6/18/23 headline from Box Office Pro's Weekend Box Office recap: THE FLASH ($55.1M), ELEMENTAL ($29.5M), THE BLACKENING ($6.0M) All Open Below Lowest Projections. 

 

Or Universal’s action sequel revved up to a $67.5M in first place, but behind the debuts of the past half dozen installments in the “main” franchise.

 

Or Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny failed to whip up much excitement over its opening weekend at the domestic box office. The film bowed to an estimated $130 million worldwide, including a disappointing $60 million 3-day haul coming from North America. 

 

I'm cherry picking headlines but my point is it seems like a deeper problem and the Hollywood Hype machine is broken. Going back and looking at all the releases post Barbie, it's been a very, very MEH group of films.....Haunted Mansion, Meg 2, TMNT, Voyage of Demeter, Blue Beetle, Strays, Gran Turismo, Nun 2, Equalizer 3, Greek Wedding 3, Expendables 4, Saw X, Haunting in Venice, Creator, Paw Patrol, Exorcist...etc

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-the-flash-elemental-blackening-asteroid-city/

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

When did sales start? An initial check of MiniTC2 suggest start smaller than Shazam 2 and Blue Beetle.

First check of Aquaman 2

76/44879 (167 showings)

Should reach 100+ by EOD. In comparison, Blue Beetle first check was 114 and Shazam 2 131.

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

First check of Aquaman 2

76/44879 (167 showings)

Should reach 100+ by EOD. In comparison, Blue Beetle first check was 114 and Shazam 2 131.

 

And Shazam 2 also had a 30 day ish window

 

YIKEZZ

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Kon]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Any one factor doesn't explain it.  But when film after film after film under performs, gonna start thinking that maybe a major disruption to the Hollywood entertainment system is in fact a major factor.

 

Not the only factor, no.  But I am 100 percent convinced it is a major one.

 

Or it could just be that these movies didn't have enough interest from the audience (and not amount of cast promotion wouldn't change that). That isn't a so weird situation.

 

I'm 100 percent convinced the lack of cast promotion was a pretty minor issue for a movie who has the MCU brand (and it's a sequel to a 1B movie).

[keysersoze123]

Aquabro 2 was always going to disappoint big time. Only good news is whatever happens its not taking the biggest bomb of the year award for sure :-)

[Halberstram]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aquabro 2 was always going to disappoint big time. Only good news is whatever happens its not taking the biggest bomb of the year award for sure 🙂

Under the Marvels can still happen

[Kon]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

First check of Aquaman 2

76/44879 (167 showings)

Should reach 100+ by EOD. In comparison, Blue Beetle first check was 114 and Shazam 2 131.

Now, if Blue Beetle makes more than Aquaman 2, that maybe ends the idea that lack of promotion is killing this movie.

 

Not that I really think Blue Beetle would make more than Aquaman 2.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Halberstram said:

Under the Marvels can still happen

Even then not. After this is the dead end. DCEU have delivered so many bombs off late that it does not matter. 

[keysersoze123]

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 24822/250306 299819.48 1806 shows

12/26 - 6206/250278 74715.22 1782 shows

 

 

its sales for Christmas is impressive this far out. But its just one day. We have to see what that means close to release. 

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even then not. After this is the dead end. DCEU have delivered so many bombs off late that it does not matter. 

Huh?