The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	23413	24279	866	3.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

51

 

T-10 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	133.64		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	21.92%		8.35m
Minion 2	154.09		24	562		0/167	24456/25018	2.25%		6591	13.14%		16.56m
NOPE	184.26		65	470		0/86	13221/13691	3.43%		3822	22.66%		11.79m
Shaz 2	193.30		8	448		0/110	17370/17818	2.51%		1663	52.07%		6.57m
TLM	43.19		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	13.20%		4.45m
Barbie	29.58		426	2928		0/99	9785/12713	23.03%		12077	7.17%		6.68m
Wonka	234.69		36	369		0/113	18628/18997	1.94%		1975	43.85%		8.21m
Aqua 2	139.45		45	621		0/101	16167/16788	3.70%		2629	32.94%		6.28m
GBFE	157.45		33	550		0/116	19266/19816	2.78%		2197	39.42%		7.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     168/10075  [1.67% sold]
Matinee:    61/2675  [2.28% | 7.04% of all tickets sold]
3D:            65/3852  [1.69% | 7.51% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        390/9686  [4.03% | 45.03% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24116	25059	943	3.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	780
Total Seats Sold Today	77

 

T-9 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	132.26		65	713		0/92	12224/12937	5.51%		3951	23.87%		8.27m
Lightyear	238.73		395	395		0/131	16457/16852	2.34%		4091	23.05%		12.41m
Minion 2	157.96		35	597		0/168	24719/25316	2.36%		6591	14.31%		16.98m
NOPE	186.36		36	506		0/86	13185/13691	3.70%		3822	24.67%		11.93m
Shaz 2	208.63		4	452		0/110	17360/17812	2.54%		1663	56.70%		7.09m
Barbie	29.20		302	3230		0/127	12791/16071	20.10%		12077	7.81%		6.60m
Wonka	228.33		44	413		0/127	20228/20641	2.00%		1975	47.75%		7.99m
Aqua 2	140.54		50	671		0/101	16117/16788	4.00%		2629	35.87%		6.32m
GBFE	160.10		39	589		0/123	20131/20720	2.84%		2197	42.92%		7.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     174/10075  [1.73% sold]
Matinee:    65/2675  [2.43% | 6.89% of all tickets sold]
3D:            68/3852  [1.77% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         422/9779  [4.32% | 44.75% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Acceleration looks to be starting.

 

Also, now that Lightyear is online (albeit first day of sales, so the comp will come down over the next couple of days before perhaps rebounding over the last couple of days) and Elemental  will be coming online either tomorrow or Thursday, gonna be nuking the ultra-unsuitable comps from the comp block.  Still won't be great due to various reasons, but maybe a smidge better?  Also might be able to rope in KFP4 at T-3 or T-4, depending on what info I kept and what I can reconstruct.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick And Dirty Bad Boys: Ride or Die Sacramento Report [T-3]

752/23083 (3.26% sold) 156 showtimes

[EA: 116/263 (44.11% sold) — 1 showtime |  Stan: 636 tickets — 155 showtimes)]

 

0.68426x Creed 3 at T-3        [3.73m]
2.02695x M3GAN at T-3        [5.57m]
0.28410x  Wick 4 at T-3         [2.53m]
0.61842x  Nope  at T-3          [3.96m]
0.49703x  Scream 6  at T-3   [2.83m]
0.36576x  Fast X  at T-3        [2.74m]
0.34622x  BA  at T-3              [2.63m]

0.26752x  Oppy  at T-3          [2.81m]

0.40583x  GxK at T-3            [4.06m]

 

====

Some exceedingly bad comps here.  Went with a mixture of R-rated films along with PG-13 films that should have had at least some urban skew (plus threw in GxK, because why not)?  Problem is, I have a derth of R-rated tracked films.  Of them, John Wick 4 is probably the most "on point", but that has some frontloading concerns, probably.  On the flip side, the horror comps are likely too backloaded, even for a film like this.

 

Still, gots what I gots.  Didn't feel comfortable with (m)any of them, but might see some clarity in the next couple of days.

 

(only have the one EA showing, FWIW — but I tend to think it's just shifting Thr->Wed in this market)

 

Quick And Dirty Bad Boys: Ride or Die Sacramento Report [T-2]

1097/24306 (4.51% sold) [+345 tickets] 170 showtimes

[EA: 145/263 (55.13% sold) — 1 showtime |  Stan: 952 tickets — 169 showtimes)]

 

0.74575x  Creed 3     [4.06m]
2.22065x M3GAN      [6.11m]
0.70820x Nope          [4.53m]
0.42701x  BA              [3.25m]
0.61595x  Scream 6  [3.51m]
0.34292x Wick 4       [3.05m]
0.46034x Fast X        [3.45m]
0.35239x Oppy          [3.70m]
0.47737x  GxK           [4.77m]

 

====

 

All comps increased, including the higher ones.  ALL HAIL THE POWER OF T-MOBILE/ATOM.  Or something.  Reviews prob helped at least a little as well.  Brain too frazzled after all the tracking to do much else analysis, so it'll wait 'till tomorrow, I suppose. (maybe)

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-3 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 110

New Sales: 27

Growth: 33%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 8/4

Early Evening: 58/8

Late Evening: 44/8

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 30/7

IMAX: 17/6

VIP: 62/4

4DX: 1/3

 

Comps

0.821x KOTPOTA for $4.1M

0.341x HG:BoSS for $2.0M

1.236x GB:FE for $5.8M

1.160x Equalizer 3 (estimated) for $4.4M

 

Average: $4.1M

 

Alright, now we're cooking with gas. It's starting to accelerate.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-3 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 153

New Sales: 43

Growth: 39%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 10/4

Early Evening: 81/8

Late Evening: 62/8

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 53/7

IMAX: 27/6

VIP: 72/4

4DX: 1/3

 

Comps

0.911x KOTPOTA for $4.6M

0.419x HG:BoSS for $2.4M

1.545x GB:FE for $5.8M

1.216x Equalizer 3 (estimated) for $4.4M

2.506x The Fall Guy for $5.9M

 

Average: $4.9M

 

Acceleration continues. It should get past $5M easily IMO, and $6M is in range.

 

I added The Fall Guy. I left it out because of it's extended sales window and being less IP driven, but it's probably a good comp overall.

[vafrow]

On 6/4/2024 at 6:15 AM, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-10 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 65

New Sales: 8

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 39/7

Late Evening: 19/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 5/1

Dolby 3D: 26/6

IMAX: 12/4

VIP: 22/4

 

 Comps

1.000x KFP4 for $3.8M

16.250x IF for $28.4M

65.00x Garfield for $123.5M

 

Average: $51.9M

 

You can probably just ignore the IF and Garfield comps.

 

Growth remains solid though.

 

Inside Out 2, T-9 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 68

New Sales: 3

Growth: 5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 7/6

Early Evening: 39/10

Late Evening: 19/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 5/1

Dolby 3D: 26/6

IMAX: 15/6

VIP: 22/4

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D: 0/2

 

 Comps

0.791x KFP4 for $3.0M

11.333x IF for $19.8M

68.00x Garfield for $129.0M

1.172x GB:FE for $5.5M

1.545x Wonka for $5.4M

Average: $32.6M

 

Not much movement. New showtimes were added though.

 

I added Ghostbusters and Wonka as comps. Not the greatest, but my comps are all over the place that I figure the more the better at this point.

Edited June 5 by vafrow

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick And Dirty Bad Boys: Ride or Die Sacramento Report [T-2]

1097/24306 (4.51% sold) [+345 tickets] 170 showtimes

[EA: 145/263 (55.13% sold) — 1 showtime |  Stan: 952 tickets — 169 showtimes)]

 

0.74575x  Creed 3     [4.06m]
2.22065x M3GAN      [6.11m]
0.70820x Nope          [4.53m]
0.42701x  BA              [3.25m]
0.61595x  Scream 6  [3.51m]
0.34292x Wick 4       [3.05m]
0.46034x Fast X        [3.45m]
0.35239x Oppy          [3.70m]
0.47737x  GxK           [4.77m]

 

====

 

All comps increased, including the higher ones.  ALL HAIL THE POWER OF T-MOBILE/ATOM.  Or something.  Reviews prob helped at least a little as well.  Brain too frazzled after all the tracking to do much else analysis, so it'll wait 'till tomorrow, I suppose. (maybe)

 

ALL HAIL THE POWER OF T-MOBILE/ATOM. 

 

Well, at least for male skewing "tired" sequels of franchises.  I said this one would probably have the biggest payoff for this year's choices so far...seems I might be right...

 

PS - The Friday jump was even better than Thursday for presales - I'd be curious if Saturday mirrored it with the buyers, to see what the main demos likely are age-wise (13-25 go huge on Fridays...older take over Saturday nights)...

 

[JonathanMB]

I gotta say as a long-time lurker here I wasn't sure just how much of a boost the T-Mobile deal actually gave these movies, but yesterday at work in one of the group chats I'm in someone brought up Bad Boys (and movies almost never come up in this chat to begin with) and they shouted out the T-Mobile deal to get cheaper tickets for the movie, several people in the chat seemed excited for. So yeah, definitely real in this case, lol.

[Grand Cine]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Early Shows - 4449/9869 98687.09 46 shows +1538

Previews(T-2) - 37928/616266 691034.13 3238 shows +10729

Friday - 40836/1032027 724787.28 5539 shows +14523

 

I know its TMo/Atom effect but its still very impressive. Probably hitting 100k+ at this point. Can its OW go over last movie? 

 

I see this in the box office tracking in 2020 ( long time ago)

 

At T-2:

Bad Boys - overall 1028 shows 28624/216079 430796.76

 

I don't have the pace but even with inflation prise , it's very ahead of the last movie .

 

I would compare to Fast X ( which has the same demo appeal) :

 

At T-2 :

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-2) - 66134/794437 1153310.00 4456 shows +8796

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 65866/1144891 1153130.24 6430 shows +around 13500

 

I don't know the T-Mobile impact for bad Boys but i think he could perform like 80% of Fast X and for me on Friday and almost like it for Thursday . I think around 100-105K for Thu ( so around 5,7-6M , a little behind the last one) and 210-220K for Friday so around 15-16M . OW around 53-56M for me .

[YM!]

I’m sorry for questioning T-Mobile’s power

[Flip]

Fan event for Inside Out 2 is definitely siphoning off some demand from previews:  for three showtimes on Sunday the event has 102 seats sold, which is over half the total of previews so far.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Flip said:

Fan event for Inside Out 2 is definitely siphoning off some demand from previews:  for three showtimes on Sunday the event has 102 seats sold, which is over half the total of previews so far.

Weird decision to do it on Sunday after the movie opened. Should have planned it for this weekend ahead of release. 

[YM!]

26 minutes ago, Flip said:

Fan event for Inside Out 2 is definitely siphoning off some demand from previews:  for three showtimes on Sunday the event has 102 seats sold, which is over half the total of previews so far.

I noticed that too for SE Wisconsin - 250 tickets for the events on Saturday vs 57 tickets total

[cannastop]

30 minutes ago, Flip said:

Fan event for Inside Out 2 is definitely siphoning off some demand from previews:  for three showtimes on Sunday the event has 102 seats sold, which is over half the total of previews so far.

This is the Funko Pop thing? There's also something at the El Capitan in Los Angeles...

 

The Funko pop thing seems to not include the two biggest movie theater chains...

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Flip said:

Fan event for Inside Out 2 is definitely siphoning off some demand from previews:  for three showtimes on Sunday the event has 102 seats sold, which is over half the total of previews so far.

 

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird decision to do it on Sunday after the movie opened. Should have planned it for this weekend ahead of release. 

 

It's only happening at one chain (at least as far as I know), so I doubt the Mouse cares all that much.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

It's only happening at one chain (at least as far as I know), so I doubt the Mouse cares all that much.

It is selling like gangbusters though, maybe due to low prices. EDIT: Prices aren't that low apparently. Still very limited.

Edited June 5 by cannastop

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Flip said:

Fan event for Inside Out 2 is definitely siphoning off some demand from previews:  for three showtimes on Sunday the event has 102 seats sold, which is over half the total of previews so far.

 

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird decision to do it on Sunday after the movie opened. Should have planned it for this weekend ahead of release. 

 

14 minutes ago, YM! said:

I noticed that too for SE Wisconsin - 250 tickets for the events on Saturday vs 57 tickets total

 

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

This is the Funko Pop thing? There's also something at the El Capitan in Los Angeles...

 

The Funko pop thing seems to not include the two biggest movie theater chains...

 

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

It's only happening at one chain (at least as far as I know), so I doubt the Mouse cares all that much.

 

Now that I think about it, we might all be talking about different things.  Maybe.

 

There is a Funko event that I am reasonably sure is limited to Marcus Theater/Movie Tavern on Saturday.

 

The El Capitan has some sort of event on Friday, but it's the El Capitan and they often have exclusives.

 

Might be something about a different fan event (listed on Fandango), but it might just be the above as I can't find anything else about the so-called "INSIDE OUT 2 - OPENING WEEK FAN EVENT (2024)" on Google except for something at ElCap.

 

FWIW, locally I just have bog-standard showings on FSS with no special events anywhere within 30 miles.

 

===========

 

ETA::::

 

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It is selling like gangbusters though, maybe due to low prices. EDIT: Prices aren't that low apparently. Still very limited.

 

People love them their Funkos. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Just means people with Marcus Theaters in their regions likely need to adjust a bit when projecting outwards.

Edited June 5 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

Studio is being careful with 30ish on Bad Boys, but we're sticking to our guns for the BOT forecast.

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-will-bad-boys-ride-or-die-and-the-watchers-start-to-reverse-the-summer-slump/

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-will-bad-boys-ride

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

The Bikeriders T-16: 20.04% Awareness, 34.52% Interest

A Quiet Place: Day One T-23: 40.73% Awareness, 51.05% Interest

Despicable Me 4 T-28: 63.21% Awareness, 58% Interest

Smile 2 T-135: 22.56% Awareness, 42.9% Interest

Red One T-163: 21.14% Awareness, 39.97% Interest

 

Bad Boys for Life T-2: 66.59% Awareness, 57.65% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M

Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

 

The Watchers T-2: 30.97% Awareness, 45.89% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

 

MaXXXine T-30: 18.43% Awareness, 34.74% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-58: 15.26% Awareness, 31.59% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 40% chance of 10M

 

Trap T-65: 23.67% Awareness, 46.5% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 57% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 68% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just means people with Marcus Theaters in their regions likely need to adjust a bit when projecting outwards.

Yeah was a bit concerned about it meeting Wish or even what the best comparisons of Garfield and IF was but tbh 100% honest, I think the Funko events took away the demand here and the rest is just walkups. Also think with Wish being a discount Tuesday thing I imagine it would’ve overindexed walkup wise.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

Yeah was a bit concerned about it meeting Wish or even what the best comparisons of Garfield and IF was but tbh 100% honest, I think the Funko events took away the demand here and the rest is just walkups. Also think with Wish being a discount Tuesday thing I imagine it would’ve overindexed walkup wise.

 

Yeah, I'm not even bothering with Wish due to the mixture of EA Sunday sales and Discount Tuesday sales.  Two widely different ATPs mixed into IIRC one reported number makes it unsuitable for me.

 

Even without the EA, as a rule I've decided against even comping Discounted Tuesday movies at all unless absolutely forced to due to having literally noting else.  Just a way too different ATP/attendance patterns for me to think they're very worthwhile.

[Maggie]

Chances of 6M+ for Bad Boys 4?