The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yes, I do track Altamonte. Do you think I should incorporate these two into my preview count? 

 

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

For sure. I see them as sellouts. 

 

Agreed with the usual suspect.  Def should count them, IMO. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Because it’s a walkup heavy genre. It’s probably more impactful now that people can see the good headlines and just check it out.

 

It didn’t really needed as well, presales are clearly good. Unless it ended up with mediocre walkups, it should try +50M.

 

FWIW, I think the argument is more that it could have been lifted the day before.  M3GAN showed the power of an unexpectedly great RT score at the T-1 stage even within the horror/thriller genre (and that also had "concerns" about it not being as horror-ific as some might have thought — which clearly didn't matter all that much to the GA).

 

Still, let this be a lesson to folks yet again who freak out about embargo lift dates.  Yes, they're often a tell.  But often ≠ always.  One of the reasons to be open minded about the possibility for Other Reasons For Late Embargo Lifts.

Edited Thursday at 06:06 PM by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

This feels accurate to me 

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 67698/588688 1299109.14 3065 shows +14679

Friday - 59078/1179492 1087394.68 6406 shows +13532

 

Great boost for T-1. With good walkups can it hit 6.5m previews. May be Volde was not far off with his 60m prediction though it seems to underperform in few markets that makes me pause. 

This probably should just be assumed, so forgive me if it’s already been discussed somewhere. But I see that MTC1 has quite a few Opening Day Fan Event show times starting at 3pm today and listed separately from the other showtimes (it seems they are all IMAX/Dolby). 
Are these included in the previews numbers above?

Edited Thursday at 06:14 PM by VanillaSkies

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
552	5432	110458	4.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

979

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.757x) of Bad Boys 4 $4.46M

(1.118x) of Apes $5.59M 

(0.669x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.35M 
Comps AVG: $5.47M 

 

I would say $5.5M preview

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
582	7480	118549	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2048

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-0

(1.259x) of Apes $6.30M 

(0.658x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.25M 
Comps AVG: $6.28M 

 

Wow, really strong finish. I would agree that $6M is likely. Going with $6.2M +/-$0.3M

[kayumanggi]

 

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
582	7480	118549	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2048

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-0

(1.259x) of Apes $6.30M 

(0.658x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.25M 
Comps AVG: $6.28M 

 

Wow, really strong finish. I would agree that $6M is likely. Going with $6.2M +/-$0.3M

 

Nice! Looks like a $50M+ opening is more than possible at this point. 

 

Hopefully those solid walkups continue throughout the weekend.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/25/2024 at 8:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
405	688	78594	0.88%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.984x) of The Watchers $984k

(0.266x) of Civil War $772k

Comps average: $878k

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
338	950	63554	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

143

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.982x) of The Watchers $982k

(0.221x) of Civil War $641k

Comps average: $812k

 

Boring finish. Going with $850k, but it probably hits $1M with middle America doing its thing. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

46 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

This probably should just be assumed, so forgive me if it’s already been discussed somewhere. But I see that MTC1 has quite a few Opening Day Fan Event show times starting at 3pm today and listed separately from the other showtimes (it seems they are all IMAX/Dolby). 
Are these included in the previews numbers above?

Yes

[Rorschach]

14 hours ago, Rorschach said:

A Quiet Place: Day One (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 96/1,672 (5.7% sold) [+26]

3pm XD Fan Event showing: 17/238

3 IMAX showings: 21/1,164 

8 2D showings: 58/737 

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.75 mil

Furiosa: $3.78 mil

Average: $4.27 mil

 

Friday: 133/3,474 (3.8% sold) [+26]

5 IMAX showings: 45/1,940 

16 2D showings: 88/1,534 

 

Comps:

Apes: $12.25 mil

Furiosa: $9.12 mil

Average: $10.69 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 229/5,146 (4.5% sold) [+52]

 

Comps:

Apes: $17.44 mil

Furiosa: $12.55 mil

Average: $15 mil

 

 

Mediocre hold for Friday, but I suppose that doesn't really mean much right now. Thursday comps trending upward is good to see. Will report preview numbers at 2 pm CST tomorrow.

A Quiet Place: Day One (Thursday Afternoon Outlook) - T-1 hr

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 125/1,672 (7.5% sold) [+29]

3pm XD Fan Event showing: 20/238

3 IMAX showings: 23/1,164 

8 2D showings: 82/737 

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.43 mil

Furiosa: $3.91 mil

Average: $4.17 mil

 

Still underperforming here, but that's totally unsurprising. Will check back in an hour for Horizon numbers. 

[Flip]

17 hours ago, Flip said:

 

A Quiet Place (T-1)

 

16 showtimes/509 tix sold (+85)

1x Bad Boys 4 (T-1) [5.58m]
4.94x Watchers (T-1) [4.94m]

 

I did take this a little bit early, but it’s still not a good sign that daily sales dipped. 
 

Goal for T-0 is to sell 170 tickets

A Quiet Place (T-0)

 

16 showtimes/705 tix sold (+196)

.97x Bad Boys 4 (T-0) [5.41m]
4.76x Watchers (T-0)  [4.76m]*

 

compared to yesterday pretty good growth.

 

*Watchers only released in 2 out of the 3 theaters I track, and if I only comp 2 of those theaters for AQP then the comp is 3.36m. However, AQP is obviously releasing in more theaters, but it’s estimated to be only 300 more.

 

 

I’ll predict 4.7-5.1m

[Hiccup23]

5 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

Thursday Morning Update

 

 

A Quiet Place: Day 1	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	126	309	40.8%
Friday	109	439	24.8%
Saturday	103	439	23.5%
Sunday	39	439	8.9%
MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	142	401	35.4%
Saturday	88	401	21.9%
Sunday	67	401	16.7%
Longlegs	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	88	204	43.1%
Friday	49	204	24.0%
Saturday	36	204	17.6%
Sunday	13	204	6.4%

 

Big Sunday drop in tickets for A Quiet Place: Day 1 is an outlier due to Chicago Pride happening that day. It is also sunny and 74F that day so lots of people are going to be opting to be outside after this awful heat wave we had last week/weekend.

Thursday Afternoon Update for A Quiet Place: Day 1 (This will be my last Thursday # for the day...off to tour apartments and hopefully land one..wish me luck!)

 

A Quiet Place: Day 1	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	140	309	45.3%
Friday	120	439	27.3%
Saturday	110	439	25.1%
Sunday (Chicago Pride)	43	439	9.8%

 

Looks like reviews are helping...pretty much it's fastest grow to date. 

[TalismanRing]

A QUIET PLACE 3 - NY Regal Local (THUR)

187/2528  

(125% jump from Wed)

 

COMPS:

Furiosa: $4.74m
Strangers: Ch 1: $6.8
Dune 2:  $8.07m
The Marvels: $5.68m
Blue Beetle: $5.66m
The Excorcist: $5.92m
Opp: $5.56m
Insideous: $5.99m
Boogeyman: $4.03m
Black Adam: $7.1m
Halloween Kills: $5.46m

= $5.97m avg  /   $5.88m (toss out highest & lowest) / $5.636 (horror only)

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	165	254	962	25859	3.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		624	151	64.86
MTC1:		531	105	55.2
Other chains:		431	149	44.8

 

Comps:

1x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $5.02 Million

1.2x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $5.42 Million (17 theaters)

1.86x Blue Beetle: $6.14 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.53 Million

 

Really stellar pace, grew against every comp. Took out the Exorcist because that was starting to not make sense (R-rated horror versus PG-13 blockbuster). I will give a T-1 hour update tomorrow but this growth rate gives me a good feeling about walk-ups!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	165	641	1603	25859	6.2

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		967	343	60.32
MTC1:		769	238	47.97
Other chains:		834	403	52.03

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	66.63
3-Day:	N/A

 

Comps :

1.48x Bad Boys Ride or Die: $8.7 Million

1.79x Fall Guy: $4.2 Million

2.9x Monkey Man: $4.07 Million

2.5x Argyle: $4.24 Million

1.82x Blue Beetle: $6.02 Million

 

I have written before about my lack of good T-1 Hour comps due to the day job, so I am mostly listing these here just to give an idea of my lack of good ones. What I was looking at here mostly was the Blue Beetle comp, and lo and behold, it stayed pretty steady! Really stellar last couple of days, and if this is any indication of walk-ups, this is in for a good day. Mostly based on my comps from yesterday, Blue Beetle for today, and the positive pace, I'll go with a final prediction of $6.1 Million, +/- 0.4.

 

Edited Thursday at 07:45 PM by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Horizon: Chapter 1 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	74	49	203	7423	2.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		44	14	21.67
MTC1:		71	8	34.98
Other chains:		132	41	65.02

 

Comps:

0.88x The Bikeriders: $1.27 Million

0.96x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $820k

2.01x Arthur the King: $1.66 Million

2.89x Ordinary Angels: $825k

0.29x Boys on the Boat: $500k

 

Average: $1.02 Million

 

Inclined to ignore Arthur the King (way underperformed here with some Spring Break funkiness) and Boys on the Boat (overindexed here, also previews were on a Sunday). I'll give a T-1 Hour update tomorrow but probs looking at around $1 Million if I had to guess

 

Blue Lock the Movie: Episode Nagi (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	30	4	45	2419	1.86

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		36	0	80
Other chains:		9	4	20

 

Comps:

0.08x Haikyu: $65k

0.12x Spy x Family Code White: $80k

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Horizon: Chapter 1 (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	74	100	303	7423	4.08

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		64	20	21.12
MTC1:		87	16	28.71
Other chains:		216	84	71.29

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	49.26
3-Day:	N/A

 

Comps (1-day growth rate in parentheses):

0.86x Bikeriders: $1.24 Million (53%)

 

Same as above. This is a crazy low MTC1 % though, amongst the lowest I have ever tracked, so something to keep in mind when thinking about that ration. I'll stick with my guns and go with my sole comp here, which underperformed in my market (similarly to this, I would imagine), and go with a final prediction of $1.2 Million, +/- 0.2

[Rorschach]

15 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 34/438 (7.8% sold) [+10]

 

Comp:

The Bikeriders: $1.64 mil

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 108/594 (18.2% sold) [+23]

 

Comp: 

The Bikeriders: $7.01 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 142/1,032 (10.6% sold) [+33]

 

Comp: 

The Bikeriders: $8.22 mil

 

 

I expected this would come down to Earth from its Monday and Tuesday highs, given that Bikeriders started blowing up here this day last week, whereas this film already had a relatively solid starting base before the week. Still, very solid numbers, though, especially for Friday. 

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 (Thursday Afternoon Outlook) - T0

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 49/438 (11.2% sold) [+15]

 

Comp:

The Bikeriders: $1.32 mil

 

Finally fell behind The Bikeriders. Should still clear $1M imo, but at this point, that above comp number is looking to be the likely best-case scenario for this film. 

Edited Thursday at 08:21 PM by Rorschach

[Insomnia]

7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

A Quiet Place? More like quite a pace am I right fellas?

That gets a like.

 

[el sid]

A Quiet Place: Day One counted today for today had 2.160 sold tickets. 

Up decent 22% since yesterday. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday; no Nope comp but I added Planet of the Apes: New Kingdom): Planet of the Apes (5M from previews) had 1.657 sold tickets = 6.5M. 

Civil War (2.6M) had 1.357 = 4.1M. 

AQP II (4.8M) had 1.582 = 6.55M (yesterday it were 7M, but I expected a bigger drop till today, tomorrow it could be 6M but not worse). 

M3gan (2.75M) had 782 = 7.6M. 

Halloween Ends (5.4M) had 1.557 = 7.5M. 

Halloween Kills (4.85M) had 1.314 = 7.95M. 

Scream (3.5M) had 1.581 = 4.8M. 

And Scream VI (5.7M) had 1.932 sold tickets = 6.4M. 

 

Average: 6.4M. It stayed flat compared to yesterday. Partly that's because of a bit other comps and I think tomorrow it would be around 6M but not worse which is better than expected. 

So yes, 5.5-6M from my theaters.