The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Austin]

5 hours ago, misterpepp said:

 

Alright, the individual my guy got this info from is making it public elsewhere, so I'm going to say it's safe for me to share it here too.

 

The word is that Paramount destroyed all of the original IMAX 70mm prints of Interstellar that were returned to the studio after the original 2014 release, hence why the only currently existing prints are with theaters that have the space to keep a massive print themselves in storage. Chris Nolan didn't approve of this, so now he's furious. He requested that Paramount put up the money to produce new prints, and they refused. So after that spat, it looks like the whole thing may have been called off (again, save for the few that can play it themselves, but it doesn't seem there'll be much "official" about those runs).

But the digital rerelease will still happen?

[Ryan C]

On 8/4/2024 at 2:49 AM, Ryan C said:

Cuckoo 

 

T-5

 

Thursday: 298 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 2:45AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Decided to see how this one is doing and despite only showing in six of the usual 14 locations that I usually track so far (hopefully more theaters will play it), it has sold about half of what Borderlands did at this point and without either a significant PLF boost or showings that start as early as 3:00.

 

This won't be the next Longlegs for NEON, but I sense a mini-breakout with this one. 

 

Cuckoo

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 553 Seats Sold (85% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 9:00PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm just gonna assume that NEON won't be releasing this in as wide a footprint as Longlegs, so I would not be surprised to see some capacity issues within the theaters it is playing in. Obviously it's not selling as strongly as Longlegs, but for a movie that doesn't have the kind of marketing campaign or buzz as that one, it's still solid.

 

An opening somewhere in the $5M range should be expected. Though I absolutely hope that NEON expands this one to as many theaters as possible if it manages to do a bit better. 

[misterpepp]

31 minutes ago, Austin said:

But the digital rerelease will still happen?

 

I would lean toward no, but I want to make some things clear: The date was supposed to be September 27, but since the initial announcement, IMAX has pulled the listing off their site and have dated at least two other movies (Megalopolis, Wild Robot) for their screens on that same date already, along with one IMAX location confirming they will no longer be playing it on X, which would imply that what my guy has told me is accurate. He also mentioned that distributors typically discuss IMAX 70mm plans with exhibitors months in advance to prep, and he says that hasn't happened yet. Some of the IMAX screens that I mentioned that have a 70mm print on standby are getting ready to screen it (source mentioned BFI and Melbourne, and the Ronson Science Museum already has tickets on sale in fact). Some of these venues have routinely played this movie over the years, hence why they would still have a print of it around.

 

That being said, that's over a month and a half away. Maybe Paramount will change their mind and spend the money on new prints, maybe Nolan will shrug his shoulders and allow a mostly-digital re-release to go forward, maybe they'll change the date to give themselves time to sort this out. I kinda doubt any of that will occur, but I suppose you never know. There's a question going around of why Paramount would announce this re-release if they knew they didn't have the prints for it, and my assumption is that they likely thought the few venues that still had leftover prints playing it in IMAX 70mm would be enough to satisfy Nolan and that the rest could play it digitally.

 

I want to clear that all up because my last post has been getting a lot of traction (especially on Reddit), and a lot of posts are framing this as "completely for sure cancelled", when I'd say I tried to word it more like "very unlikely to happen/likely cancelled" or "likely to be much more limited than expected", and obviously those are both wordier, but you get the idea. I just know that if things change dramatically over the next few weeks, I'll get someone saying "Haha looooser you were wrong fake newz" when, like with my ticket date posts, I am merely posting what the case is right now.

Edited August 7 by misterpepp

[TalismanRing]

56 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

 

I mean he probably could. But who would profit from the rerelease? If Paramount would I just wouldn't do it out of spite because I hold a grudge lol

 

He seems to be the one angry it isn't releasing wider.  If Paramount thought there was big enough profit they'd make more prints. They're not so...

[AniNate]

I do think it'd probably be better off as a winter dump season release anyway, the fall IMAX slate really is quite stacked, so it may be for the best that they just work this stuff out for now.

[filmlover]

The actual 10th anniversary is in early November and there's nothing currently set for IMAX on those weekends, but I'm pretty sure Here just moved up so that it can get at least some IMAX/PLF play, so that probably won't happen either.

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, misterpepp said:

 

I would lean toward no, but I want to make some things clear: The date was supposed to be September 27, but since the initial announcement, IMAX has pulled the listing off their site and have dated at least two other movies (Megalopolis, Wild Robot) for their screens on that same date already, along with one IMAX location confirming they will no longer be playing it on X, which would imply that what my guy has told me is accurate.

 

I think Warner Bros. should pay the bill so they can tell Nolan that he is welcomed for coming back the real home anytime as long as he's tired of Universal.

[WebSurfer]

If that’s true with Interstellar, then at least other films like Megapolis and The Wild Robot have a shot at more success.

[Flip]

On 8/5/2024 at 10:42 PM, Flip said:

It Ends With Us Previews (T-3) 2 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/447 tickets sold (+206)

 

1.85x Trap Previews (T-3) [4.07m]

1.35x AQP D1 Previews (T-3) [9.18m]

2.07x Bad Boys 4 (T-3) [12.1m]
6.12x The Watchers (T-3) [6.12m]
 

INSANE growth over the past two days. Heading for 5-6m previews. The Bad Boys comp will drop (could be even at T-0)

It Ends With Us Previews (T-2) 

 

22 showtimes/582 tickets sold (+135)

 

2.05x Trap Previews (T-2) [4.51m]

1.74x Bad Boys 4 (T-2) [9.70m]
6.61x The Watchers (T-2) [6.61m]

 

Another very strong day, tomorrow should see 120+ tickets, if it sells more tickets than today (unlikely since a lot of people will choose to see it though EA last minute) then it’s likely to pass 6m for Thursday gross

[Flip]

On 8/3/2024 at 10:44 PM, Flip said:

Borderlands Previews (T-5) 8 days of sales

 

6 showtimes/43 tix sold (+33)

 

still very bad but it will likely cross 1.5m previews

Borderlands Previews (T-2) 3 days of sales

 

12 showtimes/100 tix sold (+57)

 

1.14x The Watchers (T-2) [1.14m]

.3x Bad Boys 4 (T-2) [1.67m]
 

Recent pace has been better but this will still be a flop.

 

[Flip]

On 8/2/2024 at 1:08 AM, Flip said:

Alien: Romulus (T-14) 2 days of sales 

 

10 showtimes/85 tix sold (+4)

 

missed A Quiet Place D1 (T-14) []

missed Trap* (T-14) [???]

1.09x Longlegs (T-14) [3.27m]

 

something weird happened where it decreased yesterday. I don’t really see the 6m+ others are, if I had to guess I think previews should end up around 5m

Alien: Romulus (T-9) 5 days of sales 

 

10 showtimes/122 tix sold (+39)

 

.60x A Quiet Place D1 (T-10) [4.08m]

1.01x Trap (T-10) [2.22m]

.92x Longlegs (T-10) [2.76m]
 

none of these films had particularly good finishes so I’d expect the comps to rise over time but this is looking like more of a 30-40m opener than 50m+

[crazymoviekid]

On 8/5/2024 at 11:36 PM, crazymoviekid said:

It Ends With Us

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 98 Tickets

Theater 2: 127 Tickets

 

Anyone But You: $6.90M

Beyonce: $5.93M

Barbie: $6.14M

Dont Worry Darling: $8.75M

Crawdads: $23.52M

 

Great start. $6M+ looks about right

It Ends With Us

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 132 Tickets

Theater 2: 147 Tickets

 

Anyone But You: $7.36M

Beyonce: $7.09M

Barbie: $6.14M

Dont Worry Darling: $9.77M

Crawdads: $19.45M

 

Still going strong. $6.5M+

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 185 Tickets

Theater 2: 174 Tickets

 

Anyone But You: $40.88M

Beyonce: $9.02M

Taylor Swift: $4.66M

Barbie: $9.88M

Dont Worry Darling: $25.13M

Crawdads: $24.41M

 

Pretty strong start, but varied comps. I'll settle for $11M+ for now ..

[crazymoviekid]

On 8/5/2024 at 11:37 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Borderlands 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 0 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets

 

Fall Guy: $1.29M

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.97M

Argylle: $1.32M

Gran Turismo: $.61M

65: $1.23M

 

Not looking too hot. $1.25M-$1.5M

Borderlands 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Fall Guy: $2.03M

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.16M

Argylle: $1.87M

Gran Turismo: $.67M

65: $1.23M

 

Not much change. $1.25m-$1.5m

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 4 Tickets

 

Fall Guy: $1.90M

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.78M

Argylle: $2.79M

Gran Turismo: $3.25M

65: $3.22M

 

Either $2M or $3M right now

[eeetooki]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

He seems to be the one angry it isn't releasing wider.  If Paramount thought there was big enough profit they'd make more prints. They're not so...

 

Was honestly ready to buy 10 movie tickets for those goddamn film strip souvenirs :*(

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews First Day (T-31)

 

21 showtimes/93 tix sold

 

1.35x AQP Day One First day [9.18m]
6.64x Alien: Romulus (T-31) [???]

1.83x Trap D1  (T-16) [4.03m]

.17x Deadpool 3 D1  [6.55m]
 

strong first day, but it didn’t sell as well as I thought it would later on in the night and therefore missed the 100 tickets benchmark .

Beetlejuice 2 Previews Second Day (T-30)

 

21 showtimes/99 tix sold (+6)

 

1.19x AQP Day One Second day [8.09m]
6.19x Alien: Romulus (T-30) [???]

1.74x Trap D2  (T-15) [3.83m]

.08x Deadpool 3 (T-30)  [3.08m]

 

Going to see how it’s doing in a few days, will give a better sense of how much fan rush there is.

[Flip]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:05 PM, Flip said:

It Ends with Us Friday (T-10)

 

10 showtimes/123 tickets sold

 

No comps right now, but it is ahead of Trap at T-7

 

Good thurs-fri ratio

It Ends with Us Friday (T-3) 7 days of sales

 

29 showtimes/625 tickets sold (+502!!)

 

1.92x Longlegs Friday (T-3) [13.46m]
1.4x It Ends With Us Previews (T-3) [???]

 

strong ratio with previews, hopefully proving that it shouldn’t be very frontloaded.

[TalismanRing]

52 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

 

Was honestly ready to buy 10 movie tickets for those goddamn film strip souvenirs :*(

 

Paramount should have been slicing up those IMAX reels and selling them online and in gift shops.  Easy money down the drain.

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Borderlands (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

4 Thursday showings: 18/540 (3.3% sold)

 

Comp:

Furiosa: $1.13M

 

6 Friday showings: 46/810 (5.7% sold)

 

Comp:

Furiosa: $5.26M

 

Thurs + Fri: 64/1,350 (4.7% sold)

 

Comp:

Furiosa: $5.71M

Borderlands (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 28/1,704 (1.6% sold) [+10]

3 IMAX showings: 2/1,164 

4 2D showings: 26/540 

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $1.46M

 

Friday: 51/1,586 (3.2% sold) [+5]

2 IMAX showings: 0/776

6 2D showings: 51/810

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $4.11M

 

Thurs + Fri: 79/3,290 (2.4% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $5.38M

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Cuckoo (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

2 Thursday showings: 11/134 (8.2% sold)

 

Comps:

Watchers: $846k

Longlegs: $868k

Trap: $1.05M

Avg: $921k

 

6 Friday showings: 6/402 (1.5% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 17/536 (3.2% sold)

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.97M

Longlegs: $1.7M

Trap: $2.5M

Avg: $2.06M

 

 

Dunno how many theaters this will end up getting, but that Friday average is pretty close to Immaculate's Friday number, which I'm guessing is Neon's goal-post for this.

Cuckoo (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

2 Thursday showings: 8/134 (6% sold) [-3]

 

6 Friday showings: 11/402 (2.7% sold) [+5]

 

Thurs + Fri: 19/536 (3.5% sold) [+2]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.67M

Longlegs: $1.35M

Trap: $1.9M

Avg: $1.64M

 

 

Yeah, probably gonna fall short of Immaculate numbers.

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

It Ends With Us (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

3 Thursday showings: 174/255 (68.2% sold)

 

Comp:

DP&W: $4.93M

 

9 Friday showings: 305/693 (44% sold)

 

Comp:

DP&W: $15.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 479/948 (50.5% sold)

 

Comp:

DP&W: $18.71M

 

 

No good comps for this one. Tried pulling up other recent films and got some wild results, so I'm just defaulting to DP&W just cause. 

It Ends With Us (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

12 Thursday showings: 196/879 (22.3% sold) [+22]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $4.96M

 

18 Friday showings: 394/1,774 (22.2% sold) [+89]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $17.15M

 

Thurs + Fri: 590/2,653 (22.2% sold) [+111]

 

Comp:

DP&W: $19.94M