The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

On 8/31/2024 at 11:41 PM, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-6)

 

31 showtimes/410 tix sold (+96)

 

Missed It Ends With Us (T-6) 

2.65x Alien: Romulus Friday(T-6) [30.69m]

1.28x Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-6) [???]

.75x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-6) [37.91m]
 

At least Friday is doing good 

Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-3) 3 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/664 tix sold (+254)

 

Missed Alien: Romulus Friday (T-3) 

1.47x Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-3) [???]

.70x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [35.39m]

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 35933/101731 749345.31 431 shows +2732

Previews(T-3) - 82112/737027 1469637.59 3809 shows +8128

Friday - 92405/1098244 1617989.14 5541 shows +12102

 

Let us see how things go tomorrow post Labor day. I am still sticking to my predictions. I am thinking 60K+ for Wednesday and close to 200K for Thursday only. 

 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 40276/107924 836888.06 457 shows +4343

Previews(T-2) - 95906/871154 1701847.30 4827 shows +13794

Friday - 112261/1401783 1947469.51 7652 shows +19856

 

It did have a boost but not as much as what I expected. Hopefully we see another big boost tomorrow and 4x thursday sales on final day with good walkups. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-2 days

EA - 2403/4504 (14 showings)
Pre - 6152/65081 (235 showings)
Fri - 10936/143522 (561 showings)
Sat - 10505/142318 (552 showings)

 

Not looking at Previews and Friday. It's Saturday that impresses me. A 30%+ SAT growth might not be surprising unless Friday walkups are insanely big.

[vafrow]

On 9/3/2024 at 6:14 AM, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 188

New Sales: 21

Growth: 13%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 4.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 161

New sales: 22

Growth: 16%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 15/11

Early Evening: 112/13

Late Evening: 61/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 6/9

Dolby: 58/9

VIP: 104/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.917x TFG for $9.2M

2.043x Twisters for $23.9M

2.112x GB:FE for $9.9M

0.468x GxK for $4.7M

 

Average: $10.0M

 

Comps - previews

2.639x Fall Guy for $2.1M

1.491x Twisters for $3.1M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

I'm not really enamored with the pace here. This is a very disjointed week though with schools opening, so things can definitely change. But I was hoping to see stronger growth at this point.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 218

New Sales: 30

Growth: 16%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 5.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 208

New sales: 47

Growth: 29%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 17/11

Early Evening: 129/13

Late Evening: 72/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 12/9

Dolby: 72/9

VIP: 113/11

IMAX: 9/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.574x TFG for $8.4M

1.772x Twisters for $14.2M

2.202x GB:FE for $10.3M

0.439x GxK for $4.4M

 

Average: $9.3M

 

Comps - previews

3.200x Fall Guy for $2.6M

0.972x Twisters for $2.6M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

I'm really not sure what to make of the numbers. It's slipping against all comps, but this is still a Thursday of the first week of school. It's not going to match the walk ups of Twisters. It's also struggling against GxK, but I forgot that was Easter weekend as well, so that had an advantage.

 

Looking at Friday sales points to this being big over the overall weekend though.

[CheeseWizard]

12 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I'm really not sure what to make of the numbers. It's slipping against all comps, but this is still a Thursday of the first week of school.

I mean, could it be a sign of the movie being somewhat front-loaded and then facing a significant drop-off after weeks 2 and 3?
 

Ngl I feel like it’d be easier to guess this movie’s numbers if Jenna Ortega wasn’t in it. She’s likely boosting the shit out of walkups from younger folk 

[vafrow]

37 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

I mean, could it be a sign of the movie being somewhat front-loaded and then facing a significant drop-off after weeks 2 and 3?
 

Ngl I feel like it’d be easier to guess this movie’s numbers if Jenna Ortega wasn’t in it. She’s likely boosting the shit out of walkups from younger folk 

 

I don't think it's going to be too front loaded. As indicated, Friday sales are solid. The issue is the opposite. This is a tough time to get people out on a weeknight. Everyone is back to the regular work/school routines.

 

More business will gravitate to the weekend. I also don't think this will fade quickly. It's well positioned to be stick around as an option as Halloween gets closer. But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Let's see what it does in the next 24-48 hours.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Transformers One T-16: 42.8% Awareness, 48.48% Interest

Bagman T-23: 17.69% Awareness, 39.7% Interest

The Wild Robot T-23: 28.06% Awareness, 39.82% Interest

Flight Risk T-44: 27.48% Awareness, 48.71% Interest

Nosferatu T-112: 17.04% Awareness, 37.93% Interest

In the Grey T-135: 12.99% Awareness, 35.34% Interest

Presence T-135: 7.93% Awareness, 36.09% Interest

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-2: 76.93% Awareness, 69.33% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M

 

The Front Room T-2: 25.87% Awareness, 41.48% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 30% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Joker: Folie a Deux T-30: 66.15% Awareness, 64.63% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 90M, 71% chance of 100M, 14% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 71% chance of 100M, 14% chance of 200M 

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[keysersoze123]

On 9/2/2024 at 9:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early Shows(9/4) - 23349/40148 401782.43 251 shows

Previews - 51135/567913 747479.41 4139 shows

 

Previews is from early in the day. 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early Shows(9/4) - 25538/56482 439085.64 338 shows

Previews(T-2) - 62141/670968 900293.20 5274 shows

Friday - 85433/1011726 1169586.48 7548 shows

 

Friday ran whole day yesterday. its sales relative to previews is very promising. I could see something like 3/11/27/34/25 and still hit 100m OW. It could definitely go higher than that. 

[Rorschach]

On 9/2/2024 at 11:33 PM, Rorschach said:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 317/3,668 (8.6% sold)

4 IMAX showings: 44/1,552

3 XD showings: 80/714

13 2D showings: 193/1,402

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $25.3M

Twisters: $28.7M

Alien: $15.6M

Avg: $23.2M

 

Friday: 486/5,370 (9.1% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 51/1,940

5 XD showings: 148/1,190

20 2D showings: 287/2,240

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $63M

Twisters: $56.9M

Alien: $75.1M

Avg: $65M

 

Thurs + Fri: 803/9,038 (8.9% sold)

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $92.3M

Twisters: $85.7M

Alien: $70.2M

Avg: $82.7M

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 368/3,668 (10% sold) [+51]

4 IMAX showings: 48/1,552

3 XD showings: 93/714

13 2D showings: 227/1,402

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $23.7M

Twisters: $26.1M

Alien: $16.7M

Avg: $22.2M

 

Friday: 598/5,370 (11.1% sold) [+112]

5 IMAX showings: 65/1,940

5 XD showings: 189/1,190

20 2D showings: 344/2,240

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $59.1M

Twisters: $53M

Alien: $54.1M

Avg: $55.4M

 

Thurs + Fri: 966/9,038 (8.9% sold) [+163]

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $86M

Twisters: $79M

Alien: $64.5M

Avg: $76.5M

 

 

Oops, forgot to post this last night. My bad.

[misterpepp]

Saturday Night on sale Sep 23

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[el sid]

The Front Room, counted today for tomorrow, had 80 sold tickets (with shows in 6 theaters, no shows in the small AMC in Texas).

 

Up muted 20% since yesterday. Tomorrow it will probably see a better jump because the shows in the AMC Fresh Meadows were added today and so far it has only 3 sold tickets there but this theater normally is a good place for horror movies. 

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release day for Thursday): Abigail (1M from previews) had 248 sold tickets = 325k. 

The Invitation (775k) had 176 = 350k. 

M3gan (2.75M) had 450 = 500k. 

The First Omen (725k) had 120 = 500k. 

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 140 = 400k. 

Blink Twice (820k) had 319 = 200k. 

And Smile (2M) had 306 sold tickets = 500k. 

 

Average: 400k. 

 

IMO the trailers look quite interesting and I'm surprised that the presales are that bad. But let's see, maybe the holiday weekend is partly to blame and at least the jump till tomorrow is decent. 

[AniNate]

Beetlejuice taking all the horror interest this weekend. No reviews yet either which definitely is a red flag for an A24 movie.

[Ryan C]

On 9/3/2024 at 2:07 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-2

 

Wednesday - Early Access Showings: 2,268 Seats Sold (5.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 3,761 Seats Sold (11.3% Increase From Last Time)

= 6,029 Seats Sold (9% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:55AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Didn't think I would be tracking this one again until Wednesday, but I just had the urge to do it again. Everything I said last time pretty much still stands, but I'm seeing some encouraging signs for both walk-up business and further acceleration for pre-sales these next couple of days. 

 

Also, if @charlie Jatinder's $3.5M EA projection is true and we're all expecting at the very least $10M in actual Thursday previews, I cannot see how this misses $100M over the weekend. It would have to be stupidly frontloaded to not reach that and since we're in September, there's like almost no chance of that happening.

 

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-0

 

Wednesday - Early Access Showings: 2,722 Seats Sold (20% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 5:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Since I'll be seeing a certain movie tonight at an IMAX EA screening (you already know what it is) I won't have the time to track traditional Thursday previews today. Only had time to do EA showings and because we're just a couple of hours from when they first start, I'd say that everything is looking pretty good. 

 

Walk-ups for tonight could potentially get this one up to 3,000 seats sold at the locations I'm tracking and the final Wednesday number should be somewhere between $3M-$4M.

 

$13M-$15M in previews (including EA showings) is where this is most likely heading at. 

[vafrow]

I took a look at EA sales to see how things are going. 4 of the 5 locations are seeing modest increases from this morning.

 

The fifth location, which was at 25% sold this morning in a 280 seat theatre is reporting as being sold out.

 

Hard to figure out what that means, as it feels like it's either a system error or a large group.

[jeffthehat]

On 9/3/2024 at 2:38 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
3437	38488	206

True Thursday Comps

2.15x Ghostbusters FE = $10.1m

1.58x It Ends With Us = $11.1m

1.29x Dune 2 = $12.9m

2.31x Twisters = $18.9m

 

AVG = $13.26m

 

Pace looks meh but it's likely due to EA + the holiday as discussed. It held steady against the Twisters comp which also had Wednesday EA iirc

Indiana

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
4028	47614	277

True Thursday Comps

2.23x Ghostbusters FE = $10.5m

1.61x It Ends With Us = $11.2m

1.32x Dune 2 = $13.2m

1.92x Twisters = $15.7m

 

AVG = $12.67m

 

Average dropped again, but I'm using overperformers as comps so still kinda bullish on the final number. Fall Guy and Alien Romulus show around $15m. IO2 had 4516 sales at T-0, guessing this will hit 5200+. We'll see 

Edited September 4 by jeffthehat

[CheeseWizard]

35 minutes ago, vafrow said:

The fifth location, which was at 25% sold this morning in a 280 seat theatre is reporting as being sold out

wtf that’s huge. Is that joker or Beetlejuice?

[vafrow]

6 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

wtf that’s huge. Is that joker or Beetlejuice?

 

Beetlejuice. Joker isn't up yet.

 

I'm skeptical though, as there's no similar patterns observed elsewhere. Not in other theatres, and not on other nights at the same theatre.

[CheeseWizard]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm skeptical though, as there's no similar patterns observed elsewhere. Not in other theatres, and not on other nights at the same theatre.

I guess I can see that. Honestly after the whole shitshow with The Flash last year, I feel a bit weird about Warner Bros. Like after the whole “greatest movie ever” campaign they did for the Flash, I wouldn’t put it past them to artificially inflate tickets or seats in some attempt to get people to think it’s the “new big thing” and thus semi artificially drive up people going to see it. 
 

 I have this gut feeling Beetlejuice Squared might end up doing less than current projections, like, maybe 95-100, though that’s purely cus of what happened with the Flash, and cus both movies share Micheal Keaton as it’s big hook. Ain’t no basis in this apart from vibes alone though. 
 

Hell I wouldn’t be shocked if Paramount is doing with Transformers One what Warner did with Flash. Ain’t no fuckin way a transformers movie is actually good. 

Edited September 5 by CheeseWizard

[vafrow]

13 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 218

New Sales: 30

Growth: 16%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 5.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 208

New sales: 47

Growth: 29%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 17/11

Early Evening: 129/13

Late Evening: 72/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 12/9

Dolby: 72/9

VIP: 113/11

IMAX: 9/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.574x TFG for $8.4M

1.772x Twisters for $14.2M

2.202x GB:FE for $10.3M

0.439x GxK for $4.4M

 

Average: $9.3M

 

Comps - previews

3.200x Fall Guy for $2.6M

0.972x Twisters for $2.6M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

I'm really not sure what to make of the numbers. It's slipping against all comps, but this is still a Thursday of the first week of school. It's not going to match the walk ups of Twisters. It's also struggling against GxK, but I forgot that was Easter weekend as well, so that had an advantage.

 

Looking at Friday sales points to this being big over the overall weekend though.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-0, Western GTA (southern Ontario),  Wednesday EA Only

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 469

New sales: 261

Growth: 125%

 

Comps - previews

3.474x Fall Guy for $2.8M

1.111x Twisters for $3.0M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

I took EA sales about 30 minutes before showtime.

 

As noted in my previous post, one showing seemed to go crazy and completely sell out it's 280 seat auditorium. I couldn't even preview seats, meaning even all accessible seats were sold. I've only seen a full sell out in a few rare situations. Last time was during the Barbie EA shows, which played in 80-100 seat showings, where there would be only one or two max accessibility seats.

 

Anyways, even with 75% of sales being due to this mysterious sellout, this didn't increase that much. So, I'm uncertain where this will land.