The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CheeseWizard]

So, need to ask, is a pre-screening closer to a preview or an early access? Cus apparently TFone did 1.3million in pre-screenings in China over the last 2 days, which is weird cus it doesn’t even come out there until the 27th. 

[wattage]

5 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

So, need to ask, is a pre-screening closer to a preview or an early access? Cus apparently TFone did 1.3million in pre-screenings in China over the last 2 days, which is weird cus it doesn’t even come out there until the 27th. 

Early Access. Transformers and the Wild Robot are both getting multi day pre -screenings prior to release.

[CheeseWizard]

8 minutes ago, wattage said:

Early Access. Transformers and the Wild Robot are both getting multi day pre -screenings prior to release.

Hmm. I wonder if 1.3 mil early access in China over 2 days is good. Weird though it’s happening now since it doesn’t come out for a whole other week 

[wattage]

1 minute ago, CheeseWizard said:

Hmm. I wonder if 1.3 mil early access in China over 2 days is good. Weird though it’s happening now since it doesn’t come out for a whole other week 

Pre screenings like this happen in China a lot. Not all the time but enough. It's the same as any early access, over here, they usually happen in advance sometimes weeks ahead sometimes only a few days. 

 

Whether it's good or not, I don't know. Animated movies don't typically get these pre-screenings it's usually live action films and usually local movies. So we'll see if tis any good for it once presales start. 

[HummingLemon496]

The amount of effort and time that goes into these posts is absolutely incredible. Couldn't give enough credit to @BOfficeStats or u/BOfficeStats on Reddit

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

Hmm. I wonder if 1.3 mil early access in China over 2 days is good. Weird though it’s happening now since it doesn’t come out for a whole other week 

If I recall correctly there was pre screenings of Kung Fu Panda 4 well before its release date in China, and I think it actually dampened some of the hype because all the fans saw it first in those pre screenings. But they were extremely strong, 11.5m I believe. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

Megalopolis 

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	249	30118	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.743x) of Horizon Pt 1 $594k

(0.337x) of Borderlands $445k

Comps AVG: $519k

 

Worst presales start I have ever tracked...Wow

Probably won't be tracking this. Completely pointless 

[TomThomas]

Lionsgate is having a hell of year.

Edited Tuesday at 01:12 AM by TomThomas

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Apprentice T-25: 24.13% Awareness, 37.27% Interest

Piece by Piece T-25: 18.81% Awareness, 31.04% Interest

Terrifier 3 T-25: 30.34% Awareness, 38.77% Interest

Moana 2 T-72: 62.47% Awareness, 55.27% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-88: 23.84% Awareness, 38.74% Interest

 

Never Let Go T-4: 31.63% Awareness, 43.89% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Transformers One T-4: 48.38% Awareness, 50.2% Interest

Final Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 50M

 

Bagman T-11: 19.04% Awareness, 37.96% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 20% chance of 10M

 

Megalopolis T-11: 19.36% Awareness, 38.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

The Wild Robot T-11: 33.43% Awareness, 40.97% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M

[Flip]

On 9/15/2024 at 11:23 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-18)

20 showtimes/310 tix sold (+18)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-18) [???]

1.83x Beetlejuice 2 (T-18) [17.93m]
2.26x AQP Day One (T-18) [15.37m]

 

Still pacing well
 

 

Joker 2 Previews (T-17)

20 showtimes/332 tix sold (+22)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-17) [???]

1.91x Beetlejuice 2 (T-17) [18.72m]
2.32x AQP Day One (T-17) [15.78m]

 

Still on good pace 

[Flip]

On 9/15/2024 at 11:20 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One Previews (T-4) 

 

11 showtimes/63 tix sold (+1)

 

.18x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [2.38m]

1.17x Borderlands (T-4) [1.52m]

 

EA must’ve shaved off a HUGE amount of demand for it to be pacing this low.

Transformers One Previews (T-3)

 

11 showtimes/71 tix sold (+8)

 

.16x Inside Out 2 (T-3) [2.08m]

1.16x Borderlands (T-3) [1.51m]

[Flip]

On 9/15/2024 at 11:30 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One Friday (T-5)

 

14 showtimes/56 tix sold

 

.08x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-5) [4.04m]

.41x Twisters Friday (T-5) [8.79m]
 

Mainly including Twisters for pace purposes but this is close to abysmal

Transformers One Friday (T-4)

 

14 showtimes/65 tix sold (+9)

 

.09x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-4) [4.55m]

.33x Twisters Friday (T-4) [7.08m]

 

Still not looking good

[Ryan C]

On 9/10/2024 at 1:39 AM, Ryan C said:

Joker: Folie a Deux

 

T-20 and T-23

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,444 Seats Sold (From 6 Theaters)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 2,423 Seats Sold (From 16 Theaters)

= 3,867 Seats Sold

 

Comps (Including EA Screenings)

(2.587x) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice = $33.6M 

(2.239x without EA Screenings included) = $29.1M

 

Taken as of 1:25AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Don't take the Beetlejuice comp seriously. This is my first time using a comp for tracking a movie and Beetlejuice was the only one I could use for this. It is far selling that one at the same point (even with EA screenings), but since this is a comic-book movie, that makes sense. Again, don't take this too seriously. 

 

Anyways, this is a pretty underwhelming start all things considered. The EA screenings are doing great, but the actual Thursday previews are not selling as strong as I expected they would. Though I don't have exact comps for these, I know from memory that Deadpool and Wolverine, The Batman, and even The Flash were selling a lot stronger than this one on their first day of sales. 

 

I at least expected the PLFs showings to be mostly sold out and though those are selling more tickets than the 2D screenings, it's still no indication that this will break out in any way. 

 

Be aware that this is just the first day of tickets being on sale and there is a chance that this could end up being more walk-up heavy than other comic-book movies, but with such divisive reception out of Venice (which also doesnt bode well for word-of-mouth), it's gonna be really hard for good buzz/momentum to be able to keep this one accelerating at a good pace until we get close to the release date. That's unless Warner Bros. really amps up the marketing campaign for it. 

 

For now though, this isn't an especially strong start. Hopefully this improve in the coming weeks. 

 

Joker Folie a Deux

 

T-13 and T-16

 

Monday, September 30 - Fan Event Showings: 1,602 Seats Sold (10.9% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, October 3 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 3,231 Seats Sold (33.3% Increase From Last Time)

= 4,833 Seats Sold (24.9% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: It's good that the pace isn't just staying static from last week when tickets when on sale, but I don't think this is strong enough to not be concerned if this is headed for a low opening. 

 

Almost all of the EA showings are sold out (I wouldn't be surprised if 100% capacity is reached within the next week), but the Thursday showings are still lagging. Showings that should be sold out or at least really close to selling out just aren't. 

 

Like I said last week, the hope is that this doesn't play like a traditional fan-driven comic-book movie and has stronger walk-up business as we get closer to the release date. We shouldn't rule that out, but this is gonna have to work real hard within the next two-and-a-half weeks to make up for a weak pre-sales start. 

[Rorschach]

Transformers One (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 24/2,173 (1.1% sold)

3 IMAX showings: 2/1,164

1 3D showing: 0/135

9 2D showings: 22/874

 

Comps:

IF: $1.05M

Garfield: $1.59M

Inside Out 2: $1.91M

AVG: $1.52M

 

Friday: 29/3,723 (0.8% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 8/1,940

3 3D showings: 1/405

15 2D showings: 20/1,378

 

Comps:

IF: $4.66M

Garfield: $5.87M

Inside Out 2: $3.76M

AVG: $4.76M

 

Thurs + Fri: 53/5,896 (0.9% sold)

 

Comps:

IF: $5.88M

Garfield: $7.3M

Inside Out 2: $6.09M

AVG: $6.42M

[CheeseWizard]

So do most movies usually have similar differences in tracking like TFOne seems to have? 1.7m for Thursday in one tracking, but 3.5m for Thursday in another feels like a pretty big difference. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 30

New Sales: 3

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 19

New sales: 2

Growth: 12%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 12/6

Late Evening: 16/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 2/3

Dolby 3D: 13/4

IMAX: 9/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.148x KFP4 for $0.7M

0.191x IO2 for $2.5M

0.071x DM4 for $1.9M

7.500x Garfield for $14.4M

 

Average: $1.7M (excluding Garfield

 

It continues to fall behind comps. It's probably getting to the point of concern, even if numbers don't look as bad throughout thr weekend.

 

What's jumping out to me is that at present most tickets are actually being sold for the late shows. There's lots of singles and pairs, when you'd usually expect smaller groups to dominate for a family film.

 

Someone made a comment about whether this film will expand beyond the target demo of 11 year old boys. As a parent of a 9 and 11 year old, I can tell you this film hasn't been high interest in our household.

 

And a year ago, not only did we see Rise of the Beasts in theatres, we took half the kids in the neighborhood with us.

 

This needs to start seeing a better acceleration in the next day or so.

 

Transformers One, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 31

New Sales: 1

Growth: 3%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 2.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 23

New sales: 2

Growth: 21%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/1

Early Evening: 12/6

Late Evening: 17/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 3/3

Dolby 3D: 13/4

IMAX: 9/4

4DX: 6/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.109x KFP4 for $0.5M

0.157x IO2 for $2.0M

0.061x DM4 for $1.7M

2.818x Garfield for $5.4M

0.348x GB:FE

 

Average: $2.3M (incl Garfield)

 

This stayed flat when things usual accelerate, and it's getting punished in the comps. To the point where I'm including Garfield in the mix, as there's risk that they could be comparable at the end here.

 

I see it doing well in more predictable markets like Florida, so this should just be a data point, not a definitive prediction. We'll just need to see how final days play out.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, CheeseWizard said:

So do most movies usually have similar differences in tracking like TFOne seems to have? 1.7m for Thursday in one tracking, but 3.5m for Thursday in another feels like a pretty big difference. 

 

I'm in Canada, and Canada is weird. Especially with a small sample.

 

I have personally have more faith in a market like Florida from @TheFlatLannister, but every data point tells us something.

 

I think the EA shows are probably distorting things.

 

That said, the low growth at the end is the most concerning. Even underindexing films usually underindex early but still see late growth to bridge the gap. 

[CheeseWizard]

30 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm in Canada, and Canada is weird. Especially with a small sample.

 

I have personally have more faith in a market like Florida from @TheFlatLannister, but every data point tells us something.

 

I think the EA shows are probably distorting things.

 

That said, the low growth at the end is the most concerning. Even underindexing films usually underindex early but still see late growth to bridge the gap. 

It’s just hard to keep up with that in some markets it’s barely garnering over a million, and in others it’s getting nearly 3 times that. I haven’t been here long enough to have any big frame of reference but with Beetlejuice it seemed like there was a decent consensus, and here it feels like everyone has wildly different results. Is this normal and i’m just misremembering stuff from 2 weeks ago? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

@Menor the Destroyer have you data from MTC1 for Transformers One or/and Wild Robot.

They have changed their website. I am modifying the script.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

It’s just hard to keep up with that in some markets it’s barely garnering over a million, and in others it’s getting nearly 3 times that. I haven’t been here long enough to have any big frame of reference but with Beetlejuice it seemed like there was a decent consensus, and here it feels like everyone has wildly different results. Is this normal and i’m just misremembering stuff from 2 weeks ago? 

 

Two factors:

 

There were more trackers on Beetlejuice. A few outkiers don't get noticed as much. And we had the bigger, more experienced trackers going, which iron out variances, based on volume of their tracks, a bigger baseline of comps to use and more experience in understanding which comps to use (the part is really tricky, and a key skill that takes time and experience).

 

The other is that it was a bigger film. Smaller films, particularly a kids film with lower demand for a Thursday preview, means that small variances result in wider ranges.

 

This is a very imperfect science. It's why major trade publications get it wrong so often. It's also hard to find like-to-like comparisons. It's why it's a very collaborative approach in this thread. 

 

And for the record, these are very good questions. If someone's data doesn't make sense or is difficult to interpret, most trackers are usually happy to answer questions. I think most here would prefer a question than someone wildly misinterpreting information here and spreading it around elsewhere, which has been happening more and more.