The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Boxofficerules]

 

[vafrow]

On 10/4/2024 at 6:13 AM, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , D3, T-28, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 35

New Sales : 8

Growth: 30%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 1.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/4

Early Evening: 28/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 4/6

IMAX: 8/4

IMAX 3D: 0/2

4DX 3D: 2/3

VIP: 21/3

 

Comps 

0.593 Joker 2 for $4.2 (est.)

0.275x GxK for $2.8M

0.921x Madame Web for $5.6M

1.400x GB:FE for $6.6M

 

Average: $4.8M

 

Decent growth for day 3, but still hard to get a sense on this.

 

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 49

New Sales : 14

Growth: 40%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/4

Early Evening: 39/8

Late Evening: 10/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 11/6

IMAX: 13/4

IMAX 3D: 0/2

4DX 3D: 2/3

VIP: 23/3

 

Comps 

0.742x Joker 2 for $4.7M

2.579x GB:FE for $12.1M

0.803x Beetlejuice² for $7.9M

 

Average: $8.2M

 

A few notes 

 

I switchd over to T minus, but realized I was miscounting days to release. That's been corrected.

 

Switching to T minus has thrown comps for the better. But it's a shame as I lose GxK as a comp, which I think would otherwise be the best for this. I'll get it back by next week.

 

But the increase in comps is also due to the 40% jump. I'm not sure if that's fans finding tickets up for sale after a disorganized roll out on ooenjg day, or people disappointed with the Joker word of mouth looking to the next big release. Smile 2 had a good day as well, so I don't think we can rule out the latter.

[jeffthehat]

On 9/12/2024 at 3:21 PM, jeffthehat said:

fwiw I'm seeing what everyone else is for Joker in Indiana. Sales are about half of Dune 2 at T-21. What's worse is Dune 2 was selling around 30 tickets/day at the bottom of its U-curve and Joker sold 24 tickets since yesterday

 

didn't believe this would actually happen 🙃 

[WebSurfer]

Looking like next week will be between The Wild Robot and Terrifier 3 for #1…

[excel1]

On 4/4/2024 at 12:53 PM, Shawn Robbins said:

Hey All,

 

Some news to share.

 

I've left Boxoffice.com (BOP) as of this week. I'll have more news eventually, but just wanted to mention that I am no longer delivering forecasts for the weekend or long range on their website. If anyone asks or mentions it in the thread or the forum in general, I kindly ask anyone that can to please let them know about the change so I can try to limit the questions tagging me about it or what their site publishes going forward.

 

Thanks so much for all your support, friends. More to come.

 

Shawn

 

Dude plz tell us that BoxOfficeMojo is about to return to the glory days.

 

Please.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, I didn't check the date and completely forgot about the fandango bit yesterday, oops 

Edited 19 hours ago by excel1

[vafrow]

On 10/2/2024 at 6:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Smile 2, D2, T-16, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales : 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 0.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 9/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 9/10

 

Comps 

0.818x ADQ:D1 for $5.6M

0.346x Alien Romulus for $2.3M

0.310x Furiosa for $1.1M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Not a good second day. No sales and dropping against comps. Comps had longer sales periods as well, so this will fare worse once I convert to T minus.

 

Smile 2, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-16: 13

Growth: 144%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 2.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 22/10

 

Comps 

1.000x AQP:D1 for $6.8M

0.210x Alien Romulus for $1.4M

0.647x Furiosa for $2.3M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

This has been steady since it's lacklustre start. AQP under indexed here, so it's spitting out a high number, but it's still highly impressive it's staying pace.

 

This is getting zero plf screens at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jokers underperformance benefits Smiles theatre allocation when full sets go up on Tuesday.

[CompoundTheGains]

The Terrifier 3 “sold out” showings have begun.  Alamo Drafthouse lower manhattan NY has 2 showings sold out already (Thursdays and 1 Friday showing).   https://drafthouse.com/nyc/show/terrifier-3?cinemaId=2103&sessionId=56648&showSeats=true&utm_source=powster&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=powster&utm_content=G000Q

[filmpalace]

On 10/3/2024 at 7:03 PM, filmpalace said:

Terrifier 3 T-7

 

Tickets sold: 144

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 3

 

This is selling really well at the theaters I’m tracking. Only 3 showtimes so far, but they are all almost sold out. I’ll be able to put comps starting tomorrow.

Terrifier 3 T-5

 

Tickets sold: 154 (+10)

Growth (over the past 2 days): 7%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 3

 

2,48x Megalopolis (T-5) – 1,17M

 

Low growth, but that’s to be expected when all the showings are nearly sold out. I still have a feeling there’s some fan rush behind this movie’s ticket sales, hence the Megalopolis comp. Either way, theaters should definitely add more showtimes.

[filmpalace]

On 10/1/2024 at 11:03 PM, filmpalace said:

Smile 2 T-16

 

Tickets sold: 60 (+11)

Growth: 22%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

Wanted to see what the second day increase would look like. Will probably check on this again at T-10,

Smile 2 T-12

 

Tickets sold: 82 (+22)

Growth (over the past 4 days): 37%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

[filmpalace]

On 10/3/2024 at 10:54 PM, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-21
 

Tickets sold (exc. fan event): 155 (+48)

Fan event tickets sold: 75

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

Forgot to check the fan event 2 days ago, so I can’t add the growth % for this update. Good increase from last update tho.

Venom: The Last Dance T-19

 

Tickets sold: 260 (+30)

Growth (over the past 2 days): 13%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 18

 

1,3x Joker 2 (T-19) – 9,3M

 

Decided to add the fan event tickets to the total, since they’re on Thursday anyways. Doing pretty good here.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

The AMCs near me only have Terrifier 3 scheduled for one showing a day all weekend. I was so confused by the OW projections here until I went to Fandango and saw the Regals giving it showtimes all day, but still just one screen each (so far). Anyone else's area like this?

[CompoundTheGains]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The AMCs near me only have Terrifier 3 scheduled for one showing a day all weekend. I was so confused by the OW projections here until I went to Fandango and saw the Regals giving it showtimes all day, but still just one screen each (so far). Anyone else's area like this?

Showtimes keep slowly popping up on Fri-Sunday by me but undoubtedly more screens and showtimes would benefit the box office numbers upfront if they become available.

 

I do understand why some think a fan rush scenario may play out here but I think this may prove inaccurate.  I know people who are waiting to get tickets in hopes their more local location picks up the movie.  With Terrifier 2 many people had to travel long distances to see it and many didn’t participate theatrically last time because of the drive.  Right there we knew Terrifier 3 had a significantly higher ceiling with people who PVOD or streamed T2 versus driving over an hour. It also gave it long legs last time having a supply demand dynamic that required people to wait for second, third, fourth weekend.  It’s also a franchise where the theatrical experience truly elevates the movie and is a draw for that reason.

 

I think the packed theaters has as much if not greater potential to prove long legs with Terrifier 3 than it does to suggest fan rush.  Time will tell.  They already said they have a 45 day theatrical window before PVOD and streaming.  And they have multiple weeks of “Halloween” season for theatrical and multiple weeks of “Christmas” season for streaming.  A pretty smart marketing strategy.

[Boxofficerules]

I wonder if Terrifier 3 might get a few more screens now that Joker 2 has seriously bombed.

[Caption Action 3]

Don't know whether to laugh or cry. Just saw on BoxOfficeMojo that the terrible Joker 2 movie was #1 for Friday. If it is cry, it would be because an excellent movie like The Wild Robot earned so much less than the Joker 2 movie. Now checking final numbers for Saturday open caption sales, and finding evidence that some people are apparently cancelling the Joker 2 tickets they already bought. In one case, a screening that had sold 6 tickets showed only 4 for final sales; in another, a screening that had sold 1 was now showing zero for final sales. Apparently the negative word of mouth has spread, possibly via the "Deaf grapevine."  Will update if come across any more vanishing tickets.

Edit: Just came another case of vanishing tickets. In Miami, the AMC Tamiami was documented earlier as having sold 30 tickets for the open caption today.  The final number shows only 25 sold, meaning 5 pre-sold seats disappeared.

 

Latest Dailies

                                                                           Mon Sep 30                                                                                                    Tue Oct 1                                                                                                    Wed Oct 2                                                                                                    Thu Oct 3                                                                                                    Fri Oct 4                                                               Fri Oct 4

Joker: Folie à Deux	$20,000,000
The Wild Robot	$4,920,000
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice	$2,700,000
Transformers One	$1,370,000
Speak No Evil	$840,000

Edited 10 hours ago by Caption Action 3
found another case of the vanishing tickets

[WebSurfer]

1 hour ago, Caption Action 3 said:

Don't know whether to laugh or cry. Just saw on BoxOfficeMojo that the terrible Joker 2 movie was #1 for Friday. If it is cry, it would be because an excellent movie like The Wild Robot earned so much less than the Joker 2 movie. Now checking final numbers for Saturday open caption sales, and finding evidence that some people are apparently cancelling the Joker 2 tickets they already bought. In one case, a screening that had sold 6 tickets showed only 4 for final sales; in another, a screening that had sold 1 was now showing zero for final sales. Apparently the negative word of mouth has spread, possibly via the "Deaf grapevine."  Will update if come across any more vanishing tickets.

 

Latest Dailies

                                                                           Mon Sep 30                                                                                                    Tue Oct 1                                                                                                    Wed Oct 2                                                                                                    Thu Oct 3                                                                                                    Fri Oct 4                                                               Fri Oct 4

Joker: Folie à Deux	$20,000,000
The Wild Robot	$4,920,000
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice	$2,700,000
Transformers One	$1,370,000
Speak No Evil	$840,000

We live in a society…

[Shawn Robbins]

9 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

Dude plz tell us that BoxOfficeMojo is about to return to the glory days.

 

Please.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, I didn't check the date and completely forgot about the fandango bit yesterday, oops 

Haha, all good.

 

Mojo has changed over the last 20+ years for sure, but speaking from personal experience and the grind involved, I'm still impressed by how much they keep updated regularly. Especially the same for Box Office Report and The-Numbers. Massive kudos to them for the work they do and the passion they do it with.

[vafrow]

With two big films starting sales this week, what are people's thoughts on ideal comps for Gladiator and Wicked? 

 

Neither have great direct comps recently, and the long sales window creates additional difficulty.

 

I've got Beetlejuice and Twisters for Wicked. Dune and KOTPOTA for Gladiator.

 

 

 

 

[Relevation]

32 minutes ago, vafrow said:

With two big films starting sales this week, what are people's thoughts on ideal comps for Gladiator and Wicked? 

 

Neither have great direct comps recently, and the long sales window creates additional difficulty.

 

I've got Beetlejuice and Twisters for Wicked. Dune and KOTPOTA for Gladiator.

 

 

 

 

Twisters is a reeeeally walkup heavy comp to throw at Wicked imo, maybe It Ends With Us would work better? Otherwise I agree with the other comps, maybe Furiosa also for Gladiator?

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

Twisters is a reeeeally walkup heavy comp to throw at Wicked imo, maybe It Ends With Us would work better? Otherwise I agree with the other comps, maybe Furiosa also for Gladiator?

Never underestimate Relevation so I am going with what you say

[Eric Quinn]

Feel like Inside Out would be a good one for Wicked.