The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Transformers has the disadvantage of being part of an old, washed-up property that already failed to leave people wanting more last summer. Wild Robot being essentially a brand new property to most people could actually be to its advantage, which is something a lot of other original movies in recent years would kill for. Hopefully Paramount managed to keep the budget in check, as that's what allowed merchandise sales to save Mutant Mayhem from being a failed Detective Pikachu-like one-off.

Tbh the franchise suffers from not having any true good movies. Hopefully this one changes it. Really hoping it does well here 
 

Either way it’ll likely make *just* enough money to get another considering IIRC Rise of the Beasts was like, 100 million dollars off of breaking even in theatres, and yet Hasbro said they actually got profit from it in their last quarter report, so merch sales must’ve done a fucking number for that movie. 

Edited September 12 by CheeseWizard

[vafrow]

On 9/11/2024 at 6:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, D2, T-24, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 50

New Sales: 5

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 28/9

Late Evening: 19/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 17/7

VIP: 12/6

IMAX: 21/6

 

Comps

3.846x Beetlejuice² for $37.7M

0.442x GxK for $4.4M

0.039x D&W for $1.5M

0.420x Dune 2 for $4.2M

0.658x HG: BoSS for $3.8M

1.724x Aquaman 2 for $7.8M

Average (excluding B²): $4.3M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 46

New sales: 4

Growth: 10%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.154x Dune 2 for $0.3M

 

Not a good day 2. Some sales disappeared, so it's worse off due to that, but it's fallen against all comps. I added Aquaman to the mix, which it's doing best against, but, not by much.

 

The one positive that can be taken is that this has a slightly longer sales window than many of the comps. Once I switch to T minus, it'll help in some (not all) comps.

 

I also think I'll drop D&W. It's clearly not relevant, and I have inconsistent data for it. I'll be adding The Marvels in a few days, which will already be a struggle.

 

In terms of general opinion, I think this is going to continue to struggle. Just seeing little movement from day 1 to 2 is concerning. There's no controversy around this film to drive general audience interest. I think expectations should be low, as even an opening around $60M that's been suggested as a floor seems very difficult to get to.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, D3, T-23, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 59

New Sales: 9

Growth: 18%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 3.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 34/9

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 22/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 23/6

 

Comps

2.682x Beetlejuice² for $26.3M

0.465x GxK for $4.6M

0.043x D&W for $1.7M

0.407x Dune 2 for $4.1M

0.615x HG: BoSS for $3.5M

1.553x Aquaman 2 for $7.0M

Average: $7.9M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 55

New sales: 9

Growth: 20%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.185x Dune 2 for $0.4M

 

I kept D level comps, since a lot of them don't kick in again until around T-15, some a bit sooner. I figure I'll not update to the weekend, where I'll have a different mix of options.

 

I threw Beetlejuice into the average. It's not distorting as badly, and once I shift to T minus, it'll actually be a useful comp.

 

Overall, this was a decent day. Some movement in the right direction, but nothing drastic.

Edited September 12 by vafrow
Fixed Beetlejuice comp

[AniNate]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My Wild Robot sales are weak for THU unlike most here other. FRI is very good but sales are unusual with one odd show getting most of sale in some of the locs while rest are empty.

 

That does kinda track with what I've been seeing at my theater that's usually the most presale driven in the area. Still zero Wild Robot sales for the Thursday previews but decent amount of Friday sales.

 

Just one theater though so if it's pacing better elsewhere that does seem encouraging. Appears to be more upfront demand in the bigger markets.

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My Wild Robot sales are weak for THU unlike most here other. FRI is very good but sales are unusual with one odd show getting most of sale in some of the locs while rest are empty.

 

Mine is very tepid, with no sales in recent days, so not worth the update. But expectations on a non franchise kids film is so small, that it's hard to read too much into it when you have a small sample size like I do.

 

But Friday and Saturday sales aren't much better.

 

I want this to do well. But I'm not seeing enough cause for enthusiasm on my side. 

[AniNate]

I have to imagine Toronto market is impacted by it also having more TIFF screenings this weekend. Surely that's where a lot of the demand is going right now.

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[vafrow]

33 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I have to imagine Toronto market is impacted by it also having more TIFF screenings this weekend. Surely that's where a lot of the demand is going right now.

 

 

 

Maybe. It's tough to really assess impact of Tiff. For downtown theatres, definitely there's impact. Suburbs are a different story. The vast majority of people in the suburbs aren't even considering TIFF. The festival is much less the People's festival it started at.

 

And a major studio kids movie is also pretty rare for TIFF.  There's not a lot of other case studies to go off of. 

 

I would have guessed that the discussion of the film through local media coverage would have given it a bump. 

 

But I'm also not too concerned. Of all the bigger films on the calendar over the next month or so, this has the least need to open big. And my market being off from others is pretty normal. We'll see how it does down the stretch.

[Boxofficerules]

Smile 2 tickets are up for sale at my local.

[AniNate]

I guess we'll see if this ends up a highball this time

 

Box Office: 'Joker: Folie à Deux' Eyes $70M+ U.S. Opening (deadline.com)

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I guess we'll see if this ends up a highball this time

 

Box Office: 'Joker: Folie à Deux' Eyes $70M+ U.S. Opening (deadline.com)

That would require $10M+ previews, maybe even more. Not seeing anything close to that based on various data from various trackers 

[Assassin]

14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I guess we'll see if this ends up a highball this time

 

Box Office: 'Joker: Folie à Deux' Eyes $70M+ U.S. Opening (deadline.com)

Presales are big in the cities now, I understand.

Are they really?

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

That would require $10M+ previews, maybe even more. Not seeing anything close to that based on various data from various trackers 

Not impossible to see a recovery to that with very strong reception, we've seen some very strong walkups this year for movies that are viewed as quality. If that doesn't happen...

Edited September 12 by Menor the Destroyer

[vale9001]

this new trend of deadline and variety articles with box office predictions one month before is kinda annoying. I mean we make this too but it's for passion and fun but actully professional sites read by people in the industry and by "average" people doing this with numbers based basically on nothing, cause everything can happen, is a way to influence people that i don't like and I think the industry doesn't need. 

 

Also it's clear they just copy the predictions from here or reddit cause they can't predict a full weekend when they have already previews numbers + friday and now we should believe they can read between these pre sales data 🤣

Edited September 12 by vale9001

[Mulder]

20 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Not impossible to see a recovery to that with very strong reception, we've seen some very strong walkups this year for movies that are viewed as quality. If that doesn't happen...

It's not having a very strong reception though. Like enough people've seen it now to know that it'll be divisive.

[justnumbers]

5 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

this new trend of deadline and variety articles with box office predictions one month before is kinda annoying. I mean we make this too but it's for passion and fun but actully professional sites read by people in the industry and by "average" people doing this with numbers based basically on nothing, cause everything can happen, is a way to influence people that i don't like and I think the industry doesn't need. 

 

Also it's clear they just copy the predictions from here or reddit cause they can't predict a full weekend when they have already previews numbers + friday and now we should believe they can read between these pre sales data 🤣

I'm pretty sure the 3-week tracking is from tracking services like NRG or even Quorum.

 

Trades also have box office analysis/specialists and they are 100% entitled to post early tracking headlines.  And it's always interesting/fun to see what they have.

[vale9001]

Just now, justnumbers said:

I'm pretty sure the 3-week tracking is from tracking services like NRG or even Quorum.

 

Trades also have box office analysis/specialists and they are 100% entitled to post early tracking headlines.  And it's always interesting/fun to see what they have.

 

 

are the same predicting for some movies 30M in the weekend after a 20M friday?

Edited September 12 by vale9001

[AniNate]

THR also saying $70mil, but I think it's funny how they're kinda trying to hedge their bets adding the "well behind first one" context to the headline. Typically the trades would just emphasize the vaguely big sounding $70mil number as a positive spin, but seems they see the writing on the wall here too even if they don't want to start a panic saying like $40-50mil yet.

[justnumbers]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

are the same predicting for some movies 30M in the weekend after a 20M friday?

Well sometimes they just put what the studios want but you'll never find 30M weekend after a 20M Friday. Ever. 

 

My point stands still. Early tracking for big movies are normal and drive engagement. It's just logical.

[justnumbers]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

THR also saying $70mil, but I think it's funny how they're kinda trying to hedge their bets adding the "well behind first one" context to the headline. Typically the trades would just emphasize the vaguely big sounding $70mil number as a positive spin, but seems they see the writing on the wall here too even if they don't want to start a panic saying like $40-50mil yet.

Deadline is kind of putting on a positive light. I mean, at this point 70M would look much better than the possible 40M-50M numbers we're seeing now. If only

[filmlover]

That's a similar number to what The Flash and The Marvels were tracking at. Definitely alarming, considering, like those movies, I don't know what could improve momentum as we get closer to release.

[Assassin]

48 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

this new trend of deadline and variety articles with box office predictions one month before is kinda annoying.

What do you mean by "new trend"? This has been happening for years.