The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3   9/18/2024

California— 74 theaters (not exhaustive)

1,743 tickets sold across all showings on Thursday, October 10.

That’s (on average) 23.554 tickets sold per theater.

 

Most sold tickets for Thursday October 10th:

Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 148 tickets sold

AMC Burbank 16 with 144 tickets sold

Regal Fresno River Park with 86 tickets sold

Regal Manchester - Fresno with 77 tickets sold

[CheeseWizard]

37 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

For Friday : Comparaison ( with 10% up with Imax and Dolby Screen) :

 

Trolls 3 : 24520/607494 349759.46 4099 shows +4531 ( Comp : 8,9M)

KFP 4 : 47914/810715 708369.90 5454 shows +12040 ( Comp : 8,8M)

Paw Patrol 2 : 35529/452902 446536.43 3039 shows +7245 ( comp : 5,2M)

 

Probably around 8M for true Friday (11M with previews) if the walkups are good. With the 45% jump for Sat and 40% drop for Sun , the OW will be around 30-31M. 

 

Are previews including early access?

[Grand Cine]

7 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Are previews including early access?

Yes , between 2,5-3M for Thursday previews , 500-600K for EA.

[Flip]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:16 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One Previews (T-2)

 

14 showtimes/87 tix sold (+16)

 

.17x Inside Out 2 (T-2) [2.21m]

 

Two showtimes are sold out, but these were clearly the result of an anomaly with some large group sales (they weren’t close to selling out before). These are 10 and 11pm showings, so I think I’ll just add the average of the other showings at the same time to get a final number of seats sold (which unfortunately won’t be exact). 
 

other than that, pace is still bad. I removed the Borderlands comp since that would show a number ~1m which doesn’t feel representative 

Transformers One Previews (T-1)

 

14 showtimes/98 tix sold (+11)

 

.15x Inside Out 2 (T-1) [1.95m]

 

 straight up bad

[WebSurfer]

Should Transformers One make enough to beat Beetlejuice this weekend???

[Flip]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:29 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-16)

20 showtimes/345 tix sold (+13)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-16) [???]

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-16) [???]
2.36x AQP Day One (T-16) [16.05m]

 

It’s surprising how good the pace has been considering there hasn’t been anything like reviews dropping or new trailers/ promotions.

Joker 2 Previews (T-15)

20 showtimes/348 tix sold (+3)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-15) [???]

1.73x Beetlejuice 2 (T-16) [16.96m]
2.34x AQP Day One (T-16) [15.91m]
6.11x Trap (T-16) [13.44m]

[Flip]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:24 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One Friday (T-3)

 

21 showtimes/73 tix sold (+8)

 

.08x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [4.04m]

.31x Twisters Friday (T-3) [6.65m]

 

Transformers One Friday (T-2)

 

21 showtimes/101 tix sold (+28)

 

.08x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-2) [4.04m]

.29x Twisters Friday (T-2) [6.22m]

 

A little encouraging, but still low sales

[AniNate]

How is Wild Robot doing? I know that was looking a lot better based on your earlier comps. 

[CompoundTheGains]

When people estimate presales, are they estimating the box office value of all tickets sold for any showing on any day prior to first showing taking place on Thursday or are they estimating the value of the Thursday box office prior to the official release on Friday?

[Flip]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:32 PM, Flip said:

The Wild Robot Previews (T-9)

 

16 showtimes/89 tix sold (+17)

 

.41x Inside Out 2 (T-9) [5.33m]

1.48x Transformers One (T-9) [???]

The Wild Robot Previews (T-8)

 

16 showtimes/92 tix sold (+3)

 

.42x Inside Out 2 (T-8) [5.46m]

1.53x Transformers One (T-8) [???]

[CheeseWizard]

33 minutes ago, AniNate said:

How is Wild Robot doing? I know that was looking a lot better based on your earlier comps. 

It honestly still feels weird to me that Wild Robot’s likely to do far better than TFOne. Sure it looks like (and almost certainly is) the better movie of the two, but the attention the latter got has been far more than the former, on basically every platform. Even the Quorum has it lower it every catagory. It’s odd to me but idk 

[AniNate]

Well, TFOne coming out a week before has something to do with it. But it's also an established IP while Wild Robot is essentially new even though it's based on a book. 

 

There is precedent though for festival reviews driving up interest in a new IP animation. The first Inside Out premiered to raves at Cannes and then had the biggest opening weekend ever at the time for an original film.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

11 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

It honestly still feels weird to me that Wild Robot’s likely to do far better than TFOne. Sure it looks like (and almost certainly is) the better movie of the two, but the attention the latter got has been far more than the former, on basically every platform. Even the Quorum has it lower it every catagory. It’s odd to me but idk 

Transformers One unfortunately has to deal with the Bay baggage, the stink of Beasts, as well as the "low budget unfunny TV movie" image presented by that first trailer. Wild Robot has virtually no baggage by comparison, which could be to its advantage.

[Lux Lenchner]

32 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

It honestly still feels weird to me that Wild Robot’s likely to do far better than TFOne. Sure it looks like (and almost certainly is) the better movie of the two, but the attention the latter got has been far more than the former, on basically every platform. Even the Quorum has it lower it every catagory. It’s odd to me but idk 

Transformers: One is really giving me Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves vibes, which is also a Paramount-distributed film funnily enough. Both ended up getting great reviews despite the marketing being subpar and opened within just shy of the $40M range, but due to an animated film from Universal releasing the following weekend and doing better due to the marketing being more appealing to general audiences, its legs got affected. Only major difference is Wild Robot's getting much better critical reviews than Mario did.

Edited 3 hours ago by Lux Lenchner

[WebSurfer]

2 minutes ago, Lux Lenchner said:

Transformers: One is really giving me Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves vibes, which is also a Paramount-distributed film funnily enough. Both ended up getting great reviews despite the marketing being subpar and opened within the $40M range, but due to an animated film from Universal releasing the following weekend and doing better due to the marketing being more appealing to general audiences, its legs got affected. Only major difference is Wild Robot's getting much better critical reviews than Mario did.

I came very close to comparing this with DnD.

 

Though, it looks like Tone is gonna open within +30 to +40, but unlike DnD it benefits from a seemingly smaller budget.

[CheeseWizard]

17 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

I came very close to comparing this with DnD.

 

Though, it looks like Tone is gonna open within +30 to +40, but unlike DnD it benefits from a seemingly smaller budget.

That’s even if the deadline number is correct. 75 million still seems far, far too low to me.

[AniNate]

TheWrap did corroborate that budget figure

 

With ‘Transformers One,’ Paramount Looks for More Modest Box Office Grosses From Cybertron (yahoo.com)

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3   9/19/2024

Utah— 7 theaters

177 tickets sold across all showings on Thursday, October 10.

That’s (on average) 25.2857 tickets sold per theater.

 

Most sold tickets for Thursday October 10th:

Cinemark Jordan Landing 24 and XD with 57 tickets sold.

Cinemark Tinseltown Ogden 14 with 33 tickets sold.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, CompoundTheGains said:

When people estimate presales, are they estimating the box office value of all tickets sold for any showing on any day prior to first showing taking place on Thursday or are they estimating the value of the Thursday box office prior to the official release on Friday?

 

I'm not sure if I fully understand the question, but I think you're asking if people track previews (showtimes on Thursday evening) separate from early access (EA) shows (shows before the Thursday period).

 

The answer is usually yes. However, there's often debate on how much those early access shows canablize Thursday preview sales.

 

For some cases, I'll track separately, but I'll do two comps, one where I compare a film with EA shows, but only use Thursday sales for comps against films that didn't have EA. I also then do one where i combine the EA and Thursday sales to the film with only Thursday. The idea is that the true comp is somewhere in that range.

 

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3   9/19/2024

Kentucky— 11 theaters

238 tickets sold across all showings on Thursday, October 10.

That’s (on average) 21.6364 tickets sold per theater.

 

Most sold tickets for Thursday October 10th:

Regal Hamburg Pavilion with 41 tickets sold.

AMC Newport On The Levee 20 with 34 tickets sold.

 

1 theater did not have a pre-sale ticket sold yet.  I do not know when they opened up for pre-sales at that theater.