The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, divesyn said:

So 36-40m 4-day is basically locked?

Let us wait and see how walkups go today before locking anything. But that range is reasonable at this point. 

[Hilts]

The Equalizer 3                                                                                                        OK
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	24	103	0	37	245	22,020	1.11%
T-3	24	103	0	62	307	22,020	1.39%
T-2	24	122	0	63	370	23,939	1.55%
T-1	24	124	0	142	512	24,590	2.08%
T-0	24	125	0	594	1,106	24,668	4.48%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					1.116x	=	$3.57m
Haunted Mansion					1.147x	=	$3.56m
Blue Beetle					1.425x	=	$4.70m
Gran Turismo					3.178x	=	$4.45m

 

Just slightly exceeded Meg 2 final days which is most relevant recent comp here so I think it might beat it.

 

Let's go for $3.5m (lower bound @ $3.2m)

 

I also had a quick scan at the Bottoms expansion - 118 tickets - compared to Asteroid City would be $380k. Would be nice if it could hit half a mil.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Hilts
Added Bottoms update

[M37]

2 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

October is barren. 
Shows will be added as demand continues. AMC itself are the ones who worked with Taylor’s team on this. No reason they’d want to limit potential after seeing the initial rush. Tickets are already selling past the first weekend. 

Will they? The fact that the debut offering was only weekend evening shows, not a full day/week schedule, kinda suggests otherwise. As does the 4-26 week engagement announcement 

 

A concert movie is expanding the audience from those who - logistically and/or financially - couldn’t see the tour live, but I get the sense from how this rolled out that there is a desire to keep it somewhat exclusive, not maximize admits for opening like most theatrical openings try to do

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Are we talking about the same 30+ year olds who make friendship bracelets to exchange at her concerts cause if so then you better believe those same people will be lined up for this movie. 

 

Her fans are all die hards regardless of their age. And she’s only gotten bigger and bigger and bigger that almost feels like most people i meet are self proclaimed swifties. 

 

It’s actually wild in my opinion but I am

also a self proclaimed swiftie and will be attending this concert movie just like i attended the real life thing 😝

 

 

I figured those that attended the real thing will want to relive it.  Those who couldn't will want this experience.

 

And, like Barbie, this will be an "event" movie.  You'll show up in pure fandom gear and treat it like a small venue concert.

 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Ugh i haven’t been around in forever because of residency and life 😅 

 

Have more free time now though 

Oh shit! Hey, Nova, great to see you again. How you doing? 

Edited August 31, 2023 by YM!

[motionpic05]

This is definitely for the best for Exorcist

Universal can’t take a risk with the huge commitment they’ve put on the franchise 

 

it will sell quality regardless

Horror is on fire at the BO + franchise nostalgia 

Edited August 31, 2023 by motionpic05

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

For a reference, what are the 5 biggest first 24 hour MTC1 numbers that we have tracked?

[kayumanggi]

Oh my goodness! The tradition is back. 😭

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

MTC1 numbers, locally, are just baffling. The numbers I'm getting right now don't even seem real

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, XXR Was Right said:

For a reference, what are the 5 biggest first 24 hour MTC1 numbers that we have tracked?

This is a friday release as opposed to having thursday release. But show count is also closer to previews than full OD BO. Sat/Sun show count is almost double friday for some weird reason. I would be surprised if they dont amp up the show count after great start to presales.

 

As such I have not seen any OD presales being this big. We dont have 1st day number for NWH and so its way bigger than DS2 at MTC1(thu to fri comps).

[Hilts]

Oklahoma - Thursday Previews

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-11	15	35	0	3	33	4,267	0.77%
T-10	15	35	0	3	36	4,267	0.84%
T-9	18	37	0	5	41	4,136	0.99%
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
Comps
Strays					0.549x	=	$0.60m
Joy Ride					1.351x	=	$1.49m
Barbie					0.019x	=	$0.39m
Asteroid City					0.521x	=	$0.57m

 

Not a great day as I thought it may be picking up some steam yesterday, but there was a distraction.

 

 

The Nun II
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%

 

Day 1 Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					1.452x	=	$7.26m
Haunted Mansion					1.271x	=	$3.94m

 

Very good start. Will add Talk To Me and Last Voyage later if relevant as they both had tepid starts in comparison and the shorter window may skew things a tad but Insidious is the best comp here for sure.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Hilts

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-43

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
190	7848	34353	22.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

Since there's no real good comp, i'll just bring out all the big guns. 

 

(8.979x) of Barbie

~$189M FRIDAY

 

(2.092x) of GOTG3

~$36.6M FRIDAY

 

(3.447x) of ATSV

~$59.8M FRIDAY

 

(12.740x) of Oppenheimer 

~$133.7M FRIDAY

 

(5.180x) of TLM

~$53.36M FRIDAY

 

Would I be shocked if the ERA TOUR takes the OW crown from Barbie, no...

[Sandro Mazzola]

1 hour ago, eman92 said:

Honestly it seems like a pretty stupid move on Exorcists part. They're kinda screwed either way though. If they stayed where they are then they compete against Taylor, if they moved a week up in October, they'd be going against Killers of the Flower Moon, and they can't move it to Oct 27th cause that's when Blumhouse's other film FNAF premieres. 

 

October 6th is pretty open but I still think its a mistake cause they now are moving their release up a week after they already started their promotion. And now just a week between Saw X and Exorcist, which will probably hurt both films, moreso Exorcist I'd assume since Saw X will have been out a week, and will have the advantage of premiering first. 

 

 

 

Horror movies can coexist, and both will benefit from Friday 13th here.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	144	22768	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.383x) of Strays

~$315k THUR Previews

 

(1.582x) of Ruby Gilman

~$1.15M THUR Previews

 

(0.706x) of Asteroid City

~$776k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $747k

 

Zero tickets sold, 1 seat refunded 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	163	22768	0.72%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.422x) of Strays

~$348k THUR Previews

 

(1.716x) of Ruby Gilman

~$1.24M THUR Previews

 

(0.644x) of Asteroid City

~$708k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $765k

 

[keysersoze123]

When Taylor Swift announced early Thursday morning on Instagram that “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” will be theatrically presented in nearly all domestic and many international theaters for four weekends beginning October 13, all hell broke loose.

The concert film (Is it a recording of a full concert, or something with more cinematic shaping? Unclear, but assume Swifties would not mind a straightforward presentation) is certain to be one of the year’s biggest grossing theatrical events. Already it’s selling out many theaters and creating delays at some exhibitor presale websites. The distributor of record is AMC’s own distribution arm and it’s by far the most significant release in its history; previously, it handled the minor releases of small films at its own theaters. AMC also published a press release.

And until that early-morning press release, the studios didn’t have a clue.

Multiple sources told IndieWire that distribution execs — who might be very, very interested to know about the wide release of a concert film that captures the billion-dollar, sold-out global tour of a cult-like figure with armies of fans — learned about this from either the press release or an early-morning phone call from the exhibitor-distributor.

The only exhibitors who knew about the deal were the film’s partners, AMC and Cinemark; other theaters are now playing catchup. AMC, the nation’s largest circuit also chose not to tip off its studio partners and that’s causing major anger.

Then again, perhaps turnabout is fair play. There’s no indication that, say, Warner Bros. conferred with exhibitors before deciding to pull the Nov. 3 release of would-be blockbuster “Dune 2” and moving it into spring. That weekend will now be the final for the “Eras Tour” release — unless, of course, it’s held over.

Swift and her representatives chose AMC Theaters Distribution as the distributor of record for the U.S.; Cinemark and other circuits will handle foreign territories. However, the concert is not exclusive to any exhibitor; in the U.S., New York-based Variance will book the film for other theaters. It’s expected to open on more than 4,000 screens, which could impact the October box office.

Universal, which previously had the only new film on October 13, has moved Jason Blum’s much-anticipated “The Exorcist: The Believer” to October 6. That’s neither cheap nor optimal: Advance marketing already has the original date, with advertising committed.

The next weekend, Paramount plans the wide release of Martin Scorsese’s “The Killers of the Flower Moon” ahead of its Apple streaming. Days ago, Paramount announced that “Killers” would skip a October 6 limited-release and move straight into wide. Now, Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro might face competition with Swift for IMAX and premium screens. That’s particularly troubling since the drama’s screenings are already limited by its 3.5-hour runtime. For now, all IMAX venues checked show no on-sales for either film on the weekend of October 20.

Most of all, this is an aggressive, gloves-off move among the gentlepersons’ agreements that generally guide theater bookings. Distributors don’t surprise each other with release dates. Studios expect to have the lead time to defend their films’ priority at theaters. With Swift, AMC has committed screens for multiple weekends and made their unavailability a fait accompli.

Sources suggest the terms of this release, including its announcement, are dictated by Swift’s team, not AMC. The concert’s ticket prices are preset at $19.89 for adults, $13.13 for children not including taxes and fees. That’s unusual, if not illegal; distributors are prohibited from dictating tickets prices and it’s unclear what loophole might have been used here. That also violates industry norms of variable pricing for matinees, senior discounts, and different regions. Manhattan and Los Angeles theaters cost more than a small Midwestern town, but not here. Also disregarded are theaters’ benefit programs like AMC Stubs.

https://moviescast.xyz/the-eras-tour-and-amc-infuriates-studios-creates-chaos-indiewire/

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	267	27896	0.96%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.103x) of Insidious: The Red Door

~$5.52M THUR Previews

 

(2.038x) of Talk to me

~$2.54M THUR Previews

 

(2.136x) of Boogeyman

~$2.35M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.47M

 

Off to an great start 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	363	27896	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

96

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.385x) of Insidious: The Red Door

~$6.93M THUR Previews

 

(2.729x) of Talk to me

~$3.40M THUR Previews

 

(2.486x) of Boogeyman

~$2.73M THUR Previews

 

(1.843x) of Meg 2

~$5.90M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.74M

 

Amazing growth 

[SpiderByte]

I think people predicting over Barbie are really overestimating the legs a concert movie will have

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

https://moviescast.xyz/the-eras-tour-and-amc-infuriates-studios-creates-chaos-indiewire/

do they mean 4,000 theatres or 4,000 screens?