The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%
T-41	19	133	0	869	9,151	25,027	36.56%
T-40	19	140	0	441	9,592	25,770	37.22%
T-39	19	140	0	302	9,894	25,770	38.39%
T-38	19	143	0	216	10,110	26,066	38.79%
T-0 Comp
Barbie					1.023x	=	$21.58m

 

Broken the 10k barrier. Above not adjusted for ATP. Will send through Nun and Wedding update later.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-41	19	133	0	869	9,151	25,027	36.56%
T-40	19	140	0	441	9,592	25,770	37.22%
T-39	19	140	0	302	9,894	25,770	38.39%
T-38	19	143	0	216	10,110	26,066	38.79%
T-37	19	144	0	139	10,249	26,136	39.21%
T-0 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.037x	=	$21.87m

[Porthos]

As threatened last night:

 

Breakdown of the Sacto region by times:

 

6pm	1915	2664	71.88%
630pm	1111	2229	49.84%
7pm	1642	2739	59.95%
730pm	147	647	22.72%
8pm	700	1359	51.51%
830pm	124	351	35.33%
9pm	179	544	32.90%
930pm	490	1874	26.15%
10pm	243	2242	10.84%
1030pm	186	2004	9.28%
11pm+	77	1680	4.58%
	6814	18333	37.17%

 

15 minute increments were too noisy, and for that matter so are 30 min jumps, as it's not really accounting for new showtimes/less desirable locations.  Still, the overall pattern should be fairly obvious.  Especially if we pull out to hour increments:

 

6pm	3026	4893	61.84%
7pm	1789	3386	52.84%
8pm	824	1710	48.19%
9pm	669	2418	27.67%
10pm	429	4246	10.10%
11pm	77	1680	4.58%

 

Still a lot of room for growth in the 7pm-8pm corridors even before more showtimes are added.  Even the 10pm+ aren't all that bad though it's skewed to PLF screens/best theaters in the region. 11 pm and later though is not too appealing at the mo.

 

Now this is going to be a Friday Night "preview", so no school and plus folks who work M-F won't have to worry about showing up to work all bleary eyed.  But I do admit to being... curious as to how the 10pm+ and especially the 11pm+ showtimes will fill up.  I fully expect some random surges as late night watch parties/fans night out groups form. 

 

Of course we are more than a month out, so this not only is a snapshot in time, it probably won't be reflective of final buying patterns. But I do think sales have been going on long enough to be suggestive of current buying patterns.

 

What y'all glean from the above, if anything, I'll leave to youse.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	41	43	123	4413	2.79

 

Comps:

1.08x Strays (Total): $1.19 Million

0.72x Joy Ride (Total): $791k

0.82x No Hard Feelings (Thursday): $1.76 Million 

 

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Jk but this is behaving rather irregularly, but I took these numbers later than usual, which makes more of a difference with fewer tickets. Tomorrow's pull and comping 3-day growth rates will shed more light on this.

 

The Nun II (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	91	72	213	14663	1.45

 

Comps:

0.7x Insidious Red Door: $3.52 Million

1.16x Talk To Me (Total): $1.45 Million

2.07x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.55 Million

2.48x Barbarian: $2.11 Million

2.32x Beast: $ 2.15 Million

 

This better hope for a late pull a la Insidious because right now I'm seeing 2.5-3 million for its previews

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	42	25	148	4496	3.29

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	20.33
3-Day:	85

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates for Thursday-only shows in parentheses):

 

0.77x Strays (Total): $852k (61%, 127%)

0.53x Joy Ride (Total): $585k (38%, 130%)

0.83x No Hard Feelings (Thursday): $1.78 Million (14%, 110%)

 

I don't love the idea of comping with movies that had EA showings at T-0, since many of the sales came from that. If anyone knows the Thursday only gross for Strays and Joy Ride I can at least comp just the Thursdays straight up. Given the low 3-day growth rate compared with the other films, my final prediction will be $750k, +/- $50k.

 

The Nun II (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	92	50	263	14783	1.78

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.47
3-Day:	128.7

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates for Thursday-only shows in parentheses):

0.64x Insidious Red Door: $3.18 Million (37%, 152%)

1.49x Talk To Me (Just Thursday, Wednesday EA only included two theaters): $1.85 Million (38%, 145%)

1.91x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.43 Million (34%, 130%)

2.25x Barbarian: $1.91 Million (N/A)

2.08x Beast: $ 1.93 Million (38%, 129%)

 

I was less interested in the 1-day growth rate today, since I pulled numbers later yesterday, and more interested instead on the 3-day growth rates, since those matched the usual times I took. I wondered if, like Insidious, we could start seeing signs of a late break-out. But I don't see any. I'm still going to give it the benefit of the doubt, since many of these releases sans Insidious had average walk-ups and this will have more I believe, but they would have to be really good to make up for the lower starting point.

 

I can't pull T-0 numbers tomorrow (starting my after-school coaching career woohoo), my final, very imperfect prediction is $2.8 Million, +/- $300k (wider range than I'd like but Denzel walk-ups burned me last week and I can't do it again) 

Edited September 6, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	156	25529	0.61%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-30

 

(0.167x) of Oppenheimer ~$1.76M THUR Previews

 

I have no horror comps this far out so i'll just use oppy for now

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	275	25529	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

119

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.287x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.01M THUR Previews

 

I have no horror comps this far out so i'll just use oppy for now

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	243	23682	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.664x) of Strays ~$548k THUR Previews

 

(1.389x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.0M THUR Previews

 

(0.584x) of Asteroid City ~$643k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $730k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	290	25006	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.700x) of Strays ~$578k THUR Previews

 

(1.349x) of Ruby Gilman ~$978k THUR Previews

 

(0.646x) of Asteroid City ~$710k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $755k

 

I'll go with $700k-$800k 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
175	667	31328	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.166x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$5.83M THUR Previews

 

(2.690x) of Talk to me ~$3.35M THUR Previews

 

(2.040x) of Boogeyman ~$2.24M THUR Previews

 

(1.290x) of Meg 2 ~$4.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.89M

 

Going down against comps

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
193	822	35103	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

155

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.072x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$5.36M THUR Previews

 

(2.424x) of Talk to me ~$3.02M THUR Previews

 

(2.039x) of Boogeyman ~$2.24M THUR Previews

 

(1.232x) of Meg 2 ~$3.94M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.64M

 

Slipping fast against comps. Thinking over $3M but under $4M for previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/5/2023 at 6:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10496	36394	28.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

16

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.782x) of Barbie ~$16.50M FRIDAY for TET

(0.971x) of GOTG3~$16.99M FRIDAY for TET

(0.939x) of ATSV~$16.30M FRIDAY for TET

(1.567x) of TLM~$16.14M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.48M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.42M

 

Defintely cooled off, but that's to be expected with how hot presales started. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-37

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10334	36394	28.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.770x) of Barbie ~$16.24M FRIDAY for TET

(0.956x) of GOTG3~$16.72M FRIDAY for TET

(0.925x) of ATSV~$16.05M FRIDAY for TET

(1.543x) of TLM~$15.89M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.26M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.14M

 

2 showing disappeared so its hard to gauge  pace. *3 more sellouts today

[Flip]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just MTC1 over 3 day is just under 25m (without adjusting for any child/senior tickets). I like the formula used by @Legion Again. I would adjust 5% from this for now. I expect more family tickets sold closer to release. MTC2 is around 9-10m (extrapolated from data I have). MTC3 is even lower. I am impressed by MTC4 as its performing on par with MTC1 in terms of crazy demand as it does not have to compete with MTC1 in Canada. Off the smaller MiniTC few are doing great, couple which started presales almost day and half after overall presales start(MiniTC2 from Charlie) seems good but not spectacular. But this movie has longer sales cycle than most and so it has time to catch up. 

 

I expect overall OW presales to be in 45-50m range. While Friday is capacity constrained at MTC1 and couple of other TC, it has huge runway for sat/sun. I also expect shows to be continuously added for Friday as well. On 6PM being a factor, dont forget Endgame previews also started at 6PM and this movie has way higher ATP advantage. So it can still hit 50m on friday selling way lower tickets starting at 6PM. Sat/Sun has single day record potential. Question is if the swifties have the urge to see it in theaters beyond the hardcore fans who have already booked the tickets. Only time will tell.

One thing that might help to spread it out is that there won’t be any rush to avoid spoilers or whatever since it’s a concert film, so people will likely just get a ticket for a better showtime on Saturday or Sunday instead of a late showtime on Friday

[keysersoze123]

On 9/5/2023 at 8:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Nun 2 MTC1 previews - 18376/402437 358222.04 2181 shows

 

I dont have any clue about daily pace. But I would say 3m previews is in play if it plays similar to most horror flicks.

Nun 2 MTC1 previews - 26050/414373 501351.44 2260 shows +7674

 

Ok pace for T-1. Thinking 50-52K finish. Most likely finishing in ~2.7m previews.

[Hilts]

9 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

If anyone knows the Thursday only gross for Strays and Joy Ride I can at least comp just the Thursdays straight up.

 

I've been working off $825k for Strays Thu only as per below (thank you @Shawn)

 

Been struggling for a while to find the Joy Ride split myself, not sure it was ever reported unfortunately. From memory the Wednesday sneaks were expanded wider than usual (plus it had Saturday sneaks also) so my estimate is closer to a 50/50 total sneaks/Thu split but that's purely conjecture.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Hilts

[Porthos]

On 9/5/2023 at 11:41 PM, Porthos said:

At the risk of starting a multi-page argument, if folks want to give me a ballpark/estimated/good-enough-for-governmenttracking-work/spitball estimate for the ATP of the Taylor Swift concert film I can use that against the official current NATO ATPs for the last couple of years and give a slightly better sense where current comps out of Sacramento are pointing to.

 

What I am not looking for: A hyper-exact bullseye figure.

What I am looking for: Something better than nothing.

 

Honestly, even within 5% to 10% of what the ATP ends up being is probs good enough.  At least for now.

 

If I get a consensus that feel right (to me at least), likely to use it in some form in my coming charts.

 

(this is a one-time ask, for this event film only.  In all other cases, I'll just use my own historical comps + my own sense of judgement)

 

So after reading the discussion and thinking about it a bit, I think I'll go with @Legion Again's ballpark figure of $19.5-$20.

 

However, there is another complication that I didn't bring up last night.  All my comps, with a couple of notable exceptions, are all Thursday Night previews.  This means the NATO supplied ATP for 2022 is... somewhat lacking in accuracy (even beyond the skepticism some have for it on this thread) since those preview showings will have faaaaaar fewer matinees, no early bird showings and (at least not counting MI7 and TMNT) no sort of discounted tickets.

 

So using the NATO ATP of $10.53 seems a bit unwise.  Right now I'm thinking of going with an ATP for Thursday previews of around $12.50 or so. This has been completely pulled out of my ass, but coincidentally enough $19.50/$12.50 = 1.56.

 

50 to 60 percent hike kinda sorta feels right???  

 

Thinking of going with an ad-hoc adjustment of 50% more for mid to late 2022 MCU films and perhaps a 55% hike on the comp for late 2021 to early 2022 MCU comps I have (if I ever bring in Ava 2 or Oppy they'll have different adjs due to their much higher than baseline ATPs).

 

Feels better to me than a 90% to 100% hike at least.  Even a 75% hike gives me the willies and just doesn't sit right with me.

 

Of course, if folks want to quibble with $19.50, that's fine.  My overall point isn't so much to figure out the ATP of this coming monster... it's to figure out ***how much higher it is percentage wise*** than a 'standard' film might be for Thursday previews.   Thus if the ATP of TET is closer to $21 that really doesn't matter if I'm also underestimating what the ATP of a Thursday Previews monster might be since I wouldn't be factoring in things like 3D and greater PLF shares for those flicks.

 

(Yes, I do realize that ATPs of individual films will fluctuate due to demos and formats — but kiiiiiinda like the MCU All Ages Appeal model here anyway.  More than an adult skewing franchise at any rate.)

 

Either way, it'll all be guesswork on my part anyway.  Just want to get somewhat closer to a possible range.

 

So that's what I'm thinking of running with in a separate column starting tomorrow.  Feedback welcome on my proposed ad-hoc adjustment, naturally. 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-38 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	135	11519	18333	6814	37.17%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	87
Total Seats Sold Today	89

 

(BP2 COMP RETURNING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS)

 

Regal:     2065/6150  [33.58% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

24.18% of No Way Home's final total      [12.09m]

32.27% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [11.62m]

40.56% of Black Panther 2's final total.  [11.36m]

75.83% of Avatar 2's final total                [12.89m]

147.46% of Oppenheimer's final total     [15.48m]

56.42% of Barbie's final total                  [12.58m]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	135	11366	18333	6967	38.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

153

 

(BP2 COMP RETURNING TOMORROW — PROBABLY)

 

Regal:     2087/6150  [33.93% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

24.72% of No Way Home's final total      [12.36m]

32.99% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [11.88m]

41.47% of Black Panther 2's final total.   [11.61m]

77.53% of Avatar 2's final total                [13.18m]

150.77% of Oppenheimer's final total     [15.83m]

57.69% of Barbie's final total                   [12.86m]

[vafrow]

On 9/6/2023 at 5:07 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-2, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  429

New Sales: 152

Growth from yesterday: 55%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 3.730

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.753x Equalizer 3 for $2.9M

0.570x Blue Beetle for $1.9M

 

The growth rate continues to be really strong. It's been outpacing the comps daily. I'm not sure if that's just more typical of horror, or if the combination of short sales window and coming off a long weekend.

 

Interestingly, it still only has one screen at my local theater for Thursday previews, but on Friday, it's getting two screens at my local. There seems to be confidence in it.

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-1, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  809

New Sales: 380

Growth from yesterday: 89%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 7.035

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.911x Equalizer 3 for $3.5M

0.697x Blue Beetle for $2.3M

 

Great momentum continues. With it outpacing comps so drastically, I can only assume that'll continue with walk ups. Not aure if I'll get a chance to look at it this afternoon or not.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Feedback welcome on my proposed ad-hoc adjustment, naturally. 

What I did on my end is look at equivalent ticket prices for films last Thursday at 7PM and just average them out versus TET Friday prices at the same theater. So let’s say you check 5 of your theaters (or 1 from each chain, however many that may be) and get a composite of $12 for the equivalent “normal” Thursday evening price, then get the average for TET Friday during the same show. At scale, the variances in seat type should mostly come together. 

[keysersoze123]

On 9/5/2023 at 9:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 38) - 488280/750996 10321017.20 4410 shows

 

Slowed down quite a bit. Its adding few late shows as others have said. Those have not made a big difference at this point. I expect sat/sun to drive big part of sales until closer to release when I expect more prime time shows added.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 37) - 493463/757708 10430340.07 4470 shows

 

Should cross 500K tickets by Friday 🙂

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding 3	T-1	Jax	5	15	16	58	1,425	4.07%
		Phx	6	19	4	49	1,759	2.79%
		Ral	7	17	8	49	1,877	2.61%
	Total		18	51	28	156	5,061	3.08%
Nun II	T-1	Jax	6	48	36	125	6,331	1.97%
		Phx	5	29	33	168	4,404	3.81%
		Ral	8	40	21	114	5,323	2.14%
	Total		19	117	90	407	16,058	2.53%

 

*Switching to true previews comps

 

Greek Wedding T-1 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .471x (471k)

 - 80 for Brady (Thu) - .687x (515k)

 - Strays (Thu) - 1.02x (841k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.472x (735k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .502x (366k)

 - Marry Me - 1.106x (581k)

 - West Side Story - .843x (675k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 1.076x (646k)

 - Man Called Otto - 1.076x (683k)

 

Size adjusted average - 653k

 

Greek Wedding pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Greek Wedding 3	67.74%	22.58%	25.00%	21.88%
Magic Mike 3	79.89%	27.72%	36.84%	23.05%
80 for Brady	60.99%	31.91%	26.04%	25.41%
Strays			18.46%	30.77%
Easter Sunday	85.96%	43.86%	0.00%	17.78%
I Wanna Dance	77.71%	20.00%	23.57%	18.25%
Marry Me				20.51%
West Side Story				27.59%
Dear Evan Hansen	98.63%			33.03%
Otto	145.76%	40.68%		43.56%

 

In line with most of the comps for yesterday.  Gonna drop my prediction a little to 650k

 

The Nun II T-1 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .743x (3.71m)

 - Scream VI - .27x (1.54m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .949x (2.47m)

 - Candyman - 1.384x (2.63m)

 - Nope - .298x (1.91m)

 - Boogeyman (Thu) - 3.634x (3.63m)

 - Halloween Kills - .288x (1.4m)

 - Halloween Ends - .382x (2.06m)

 

Average adjusted comps - 2.68m

 

Nun pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Nun II	91.08%	91.08%		28.39%
Insidious 5	134.19%	41.45%	38.69%	34.64%
Scream VI	43.43%	20.38%	12.56%	15.40%
Black Phone			15.25%	34.06%
Candyman	131.50%			44.12%
Nope	91.58%	26.23%	19.39%	32.36%
Boogeyman				0.90%
Halloween Kills	97.07%	39.75%		26.95%
Halloween Ends			22.00%

 

This is kinda all over the place.  Going to put a pin down around 2.5m but expecting it to change tomorrow.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-0	Jax	5	15	13	71	1,425	4.98%
		Phx	7	21	15	64	1,904	3.36%
		Ral	7	17	13	62	1,877	3.30%
	Total		19	53	41	197	5,206	3.78%
Nun II	T-0	Jax	6	48	55	180	6,331	2.84%
		Phx	7	38	84	252	5,215	4.83%
		Ral	8	45	36	150	5,809	2.58%
	Total		21	131	175	582	17,355	3.35%

 

Greek Wedding T-0 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .517x (517k)

 - 80 for Brady (Thu) - .675x (506k)

 - Strays (Thu) - .864x (713k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.576x (788k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .495x (361k)

 - Marry Me - 1.126x (591k)

 - West Side Story - .672x (538k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 1.01x (606k)

 - Man Called Otto - .752x (477k)

 

Size adjusted average - 619k

Growth model forecast - 530k

 

Greek Wedding pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Greek Wedding 3	97.00%	23.00%	14.29%	26.28%
Magic Mike 3	70.85%			15.11%
80 for Brady	85.99%	26.75%	20.87%	28.63%
Strays	121.36%	32.04%	20.00%	49.02%
Easter Sunday	95.31%	28.13%	34.78%	17.92%
I Wanna Dance	99.00%	21.00%	24.05%	27.97%
Marry Me	90.22%			24.11%
West Side Story	168.81%			58.38%
Dear Evan Hansen	132.14%	21.43%		34.48%
Otto	269.01%	32.39%		80.69%

 

Final 3-day pace closest to I Wanna Dance, Easter Sunday and Marry Me.  Unfortunately this is the highest comp, the lowest comp and one in the middle.  I'm hoping the afternoon clears things up a little more.  Expecting around a +25% again.  For now I'll go with 600k

 

The Nun II T-0 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .57x (2.85m)

 - Scream VI - .304x (1.73m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .861x (2.24m)

 - Candyman - 1.126x (2.14m)

 - Nope - .293x (1.88m)

 - Boogeyman (Thu) - 2.91x (2.91m)

 - Halloween Kills - .321x (1.56m)

 - Halloween Ends - .406x (2.19m)

 

Average adjusted comps - 2.37m

Growth model forecast - 2.15m

 

Nun pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Nun II	132.80%	43.60%		43.00%
Insidious 5	215.12%	49.38%	41.46%	86.31%
Scream VI	66.06%	22.40%	16.00%	27.03%
Black Phone			26.67%	57.58%
Candyman	227.22%	39.87%		75.85%
Nope	142.84%	29.01%	18.79%	45.24%
Boogeyman				78.57%
Halloween Kills	110.94%			28.24%
Halloween Ends				34.62%

 

Looks like 3m is likely out of the picture now.  For now I'll go with 2.25m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/6/2023 at 9:43 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-30	Jax	5	34	2	3	6,046	0.05%
		Phx	4	18	8	9	3,777	0.24%
		Ral	5	21	1	3	3,289	0.09%
	Total		14	73	11	15	13,112	0.11%

 

Exorcist T-30 comps

 - Nope - .089x (571k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-29	Jax	5	34	9	12	6,046	0.20%
		Phx	5	22	4	13	5,357	0.24%
		Ral	6	24	3	6	3,646	0.16%
	Total		16	80	16	31	15,049	0.34%

 

Exorcist T-29 comps

 - Nope - .181x (1.16m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .969x (1.4m)

Edited September 8, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Fix Phx

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/6/2023 at 9:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-37	Jax	6	66	19	4,037	10,609	38.05%
		Phx	6	72	57	7,405	11,976	61.83%
		Ral	8	65	30	4,717	8,417	56.04%
	Total		20	203	106	16,159	31,002	52.12%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .466x (23.3m)

 - Dr Strange - .7x (25.21m)

 - BP2 - .914x (25.59m)

 - Thor 4 - .987x (28.62m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.678x (29.36m)

 - Barbie - 1.416x (30.02m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-36	Jax	6	66	38	4,075	10,609	38.41%
		Phx	6	74	73	7,478	12,124	61.68%
		Ral	8	75	14	4,731	9,512	49.74%
	Total		20	215	125	16,284	32,245	50.50%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .47x (23.48m)

 - Dr Strange - .706x (25.41m)

 - BP2 - .921x (25.79m)

 - Thor 4 - .995x (28.84m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.691x (29.59m)

 - Barbie - 1.427x (30.25m)

[jeffthehat]

On 9/6/2023 at 10:46 AM, jeffthehat said:

Started tracking some small regional theaters near me to see if capacity in non-MTCs can catch up to MTC-1 for Eras. 

 

T-39 (5 theaters)

 

780/3652 (21.35% sold)

 

T-38 

 

819/3652 (22.42% sold) +39 (+5%)

 

T-37 

 

901/3652 (24.67% sold) +82 (+10%)

 

Not a lot of data, but great growth in the first couple of days. Suggests there's a lot of demand left out there. Might try to add some theaters today. 

 

 

 

 

 

Counted as much of the theater chain as I could today. My script went kaput about halfway through after working well yesterday ... not sure if it's a problem with Fandango or my code. Won't be able to do this often unless I figure this out, sadly. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-37 @ 3pm

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4529

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 25.9%

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-36 @ 11am

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4668

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 26.69

New sales - 139 (+3%)

 

Still great growth here at this stage. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

So after reading the discussion and thinking about it a bit, I think I'll go with @Legion Again's ballpark figure of $19.5-$20.

 

However, there is another complication that I didn't bring up last night.  All my comps, with a couple of notable exceptions, are all Thursday Night previews.  This means the NATO supplied ATP for 2022 is... somewhat lacking in accuracy (even beyond the skepticism some have for it on this thread) since those preview showings will have faaaaaar fewer matinees, no early bird showings and (at least not counting MI7 and TMNT) no sort of discounted tickets.

 

So using the NATO ATP of $10.53 seems a bit unwise.  Right now I'm thinking of going with an ATP for Thursday previews of around $12.50 or so. This has been completely pulled out of my ass, but coincidentally enough $19.50/$12.50 = 1.56.

 

50 to 60 percent hike kinda sorta feels right???  

 

Thinking of going with an ad-hoc adjustment of 50% more for mid to late 2022 MCU films and perhaps a 55% hike on the comp for late 2021 to early 2022 MCU comps I have (if I ever bring in Ava 2 or Oppy they'll have different adjs due to their much higher than baseline ATPs).

 

Feels better to me than a 90% to 100% hike at least.  Even a 75% hike gives me the willies and just doesn't sit right with me.

 

Of course, if folks want to quibble with $19.50, that's fine.  My overall point isn't so much to figure out the ATP of this coming monster... it's to figure out ***how much higher it is percentage wise*** than a 'standard' film might be for Thursday previews.   Thus if the ATP of TET is closer to $21 that really doesn't matter if I'm also underestimating what the ATP of a Thursday Previews monster might be since I wouldn't be factoring in things like 3D and greater PLF shares for those flicks.

 

(Yes, I do realize that ATPs of individual films will fluctuate due to demos and formats — but kiiiiiinda like the MCU All Ages Appeal model here anyway.  More than an adult skewing franchise at any rate.)

 

Either way, it'll all be guesswork on my part anyway.  Just want to get somewhat closer to a possible range.

 

So that's what I'm thinking of running with in a separate column starting tomorrow.  Feedback welcome on my proposed ad-hoc adjustment, naturally. 

 

its not hard. Just look at PLF and regular show rates and comp them with Eras rates. I am thinking 40-50%ish for Friday as shows before 6PM sometimes have discounts. Saturday on the other hand will be way higher than that. Something closer to 70%ish.