Jump to content

Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

Recommended by Cap

  • Astonished
  • Thanks
  • Heart
  • Like

35 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by XXR & Friends,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
Recommended by XXR & Friends
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post
Bob Train Box Office Gold

Bob Train

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

Every Movie that was predicted to be a Detective Pikachu redux this year has made $500m+ DOM :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted

On 8/31/2023 at 8:43 PM, Hilts said:

Okay Taylor, I guess this is as good a day as any for my official tracking debut! It was fun. This covers Oklahoma.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
               
Friday - showings starting 6pm
               
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-43 16 93 0 6,148 6,148 15,916 38.63%

 

MTC1: 4,299/6,212 - 69.2% sold 🔥

MTC2: 812/4,576 - 17.7% sold

MTC3: 957/4,492 - 21.3% sold

 

No actual sellouts just yet but a few of my MTC1s are at 90%+ capacity already.

 

No relevant Day 1 comps as this is just crazy. T-0 comps below which I expect to rise much higher shortly as more shows are added.

 

T-0 Comps    
Barbie 0.622x = $13.12m
Oppenheimer 1.263x = $13.26m
Barbenheimer 0.417x = $13.17m

 

Might drop in with an Equalizer 3 prediction in a bit.

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-60 17 57 0 225 225 12,529 1.80%

 

We are at T-60 (!) so I don't have any relevant comps, and I haven't been keeping track of how many hours each have been on sale on Day 1.

 

I have referenced my initial day 1 track for TET above (which by the way feels like a lifetime ago ha).

 

Renaissance has ~60% of the showings and ~75% total seats at the same point. You can see by the sold amount that there is just no comparison.

 

FWIW, this has had a very similar start to FNAF in terms of amount sold and seat/showing allocations, take that as you will.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, DAJK said:

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

Who on earth is predicting 200m OW for it !!!! PS does not scream anywhere in that ballpark. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Sparkle Jump Rope Queen Straight-to-DVD

Sparkle Jump Rope Queen

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-60 17 57 0 225 225 12,529 1.80%

 

We are at T-60 (!) so I don't have any relevant comps, and I haven't been keeping track of how many hours each have been on sale on Day 1.

 

I have referenced my initial day 1 track for TET above (which by the way feels like a lifetime ago ha).

 

Renaissance has ~60% of the showings and ~75% total seats at the same point. You can see by the sold amount that there is just no comparison.

 

FWIW, this has had a very similar start to FNAF in terms of amount sold and seat/showing allocations, take that as you will.

putting these numbers next to eras tour film's make them look awful lol 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-60 17 57 0 225 225 12,529 1.80%

 

We are at T-60 (!) so I don't have any relevant comps, and I haven't been keeping track of how many hours each have been on sale on Day 1.

 

I have referenced my initial day 1 track for TET above (which by the way feels like a lifetime ago ha).

 

Renaissance has ~60% of the showings and ~75% total seats at the same point. You can see by the sold amount that there is just no comparison.

 

FWIW, this has had a very similar start to FNAF in terms of amount sold and seat/showing allocations, take that as you will.


Can you do Friday also for Renaissance? Feels like a better idea to comp them combined vs Eras Friday.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Eric is Anxious Global Phenomenon

Eric is Anxious

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

What Happens Later T-32: 18.03% Awareness

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-46: 41.67%

Boys in the Boat T-84: 10.46%

Ferrari T-84: 21.92%

Drive Away Dolls T-144: 18.98%

Captain America: Brave New World T-298: 44.87%

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-4: 51.22% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 41% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-11: 43.44% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ThatWaluigiDude Box Office Gold

ThatWaluigiDude

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DAJK said:

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

A $40M opening would actually be much better than what most were predicting over here and on Reddit before the pre sales.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:


Can you do Friday also for Renaissance? Feels like a better idea to comp them combined vs Eras Friday.

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

 

Friday

122 showings

167 total sold

74.2% of Thursday

 

Sorry didn't have time to count seat allocation but can assume around 2x+ Thursday.

 

Maybe just doing better in other regions / TET over-performing here.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/30/2023 at 10:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2115 2657 79.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2045 2741 74.61%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10587 28 22056 48.00% 13 146

 

1.027 Barbie T-0 22.89M
0.689 Doctor Strange MoM T-0 24.81M
0.457 NWH T-0 22.86M

 

Numbers are from earlier today. I'll add Thor comps starting tomorrow

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2120 2657 79.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2052 2741 74.86%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10688 101 22056 48.46% 13 146

 

2.116 Thor L&T T-11 61.36M
1.380 Doctor Strange MoM T-11 49.69M
1.036 Barbie T-0 23.11M
0.696 Doctor Strange MoM T-0 25.04M
0.462 NWH T-0 23.08M
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/30/2023 at 10:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-13 Friday 100 Showings 10474 +93 15743 ATP: 22.37
0.323 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 11.64M
0.270 NWH Thurs T-0 13.49M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 17.32M
  Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0 20.07M

 

T-14 Saturday 183 Showings 13938 +120 27308 ATP: 22.11
0.375 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 20.51M
0.327 NWH Fri T-0 23.51M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 30.94M
  Adjusted NWH Fri T-0 35.47M

 

T-15 Sunday 161 Showings 11085 +107 23957 ATP: 21.94
0.252 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 14.57M
0.220 NWH Sat T-0 16.29M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 22.52M
  Adjusted NWH Sat T-0 25.19M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-11 Friday 101 Showings 10680 +206 15938 ATP: 22.36
0.861 Thor L&T Thurs T-11 24.97M
  Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-11 37.24M
0.635 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-11 22.85M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-11 33.97M
0.330 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 11.87M
0.275 NWH Thurs T-0 13.76M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 17.65M
  Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0 20.45M

 

T-12 Saturday 185 Showings 14318 +380 27616 ATP: 22.08
1.407 Thor L&T Fri T-12 57.04M
  Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-12 85.58M
0.959 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-12 52.49M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-12 79.13M
0.385 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 21.06M
0.336 NWH Fri T-0 24.15M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 31.75M
  Adjusted NWH Fri T-0 36.40M

 

T-13 Sunday 162 Showings 11482 +397 24071 ATP: 21.95
1.188 Thor L&T Sat T-13 50.04M
  Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-13 76.70M
0.733 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-13 42.37M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-13 65.53M
0.261 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 15.09M
0.228 NWH Sat T-0 16.88M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 23.34M
  Adjusted NWH Sat T-0 26.11M

 

Probably gonna get rid of the T-0 comps from hereon out

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/30/2023 at 10:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-13 Friday 128 Showings 9600 +72 19809
0.669 Barbie T-0 Thursday 14.92M

 

T-14 Saturday 234 Showings 6527 +91 36970
0.254 Barbie T-0 Friday 12.13M

 

T-15 Sunday 232 Showings 3914 +174 36381
0.165 Barbie T-0 Saturday 7.21M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-11 Friday 130 Showings 9875 +275 20074
0.688 Barbie T-0 Thursday 15.34M

 

T-12 Saturday 234 Showings 6823 +296 36976
0.265 Barbie T-0 Friday 12.68M

 

T-13 Sunday 232 Showings 4139 +225 36391
0.175 Barbie T-0 Saturday 7.63M
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 84 310 27.10%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 55 279 19.71%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
530 N/A 6321 8.38% 12 38

 

Not sure what comps to add here... I'll just do it tomorrow

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-24 Thursday 84 Showings 1813 +1813 9993 ATP: 17.10

 

T-25 Friday 92 Showings 1173 +1173 10249 ATP: 15.95

 

T-26 Saturday 91 Showings 507 +507 9920 ATP: 14.94

 

T-27 Sunday 81 Showings 175 +175 9102 ATP: 13.73
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted (edited)

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 87 1203 7.23%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 35 1256 2.79%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
466 N/A 10533 4.42% 12 51

 

0.0644 Taylor Swift 25 hours
Edited by Inceptionzq
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-59 Thursday 55 Showings 1648 +1648 8559 ATP: 24.47
0.393 Taylor Swift Friday Day 1

 

T-60 Friday 95 Showings 1868 +1868 15400 ATP: 24.90
0.492 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 1

 

T-61 Saturday 97 Showings 1699 +1699 15835 ATP: 24.47
0.601 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 1

 

T-62 Sunday 85 Showings 930 +930 13169 ATP: 23.70
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-59 Thursday 60 Showings 254 +254 10321
0.052 Taylor Swift Friday Day 1

 

T-60 Friday 141 Showings 155 +155 25272
0.076 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 1

 

T-61 Saturday 142 Showings 125 +125 25145
0.107 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 1

 

T-62 Sunday 136 Showings 26 +26 24214
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept