The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CoolioD1]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

I'm banning you all from Detective Pikachu comparisons. Any untested franchise thing with online hype is a detective pikachu to you guys. Enough.

[Flip]

Is Beyoncé no refunds like TET?

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	935	27239	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(3.542x) of A Haunting in Venice ~$4.25M THUR Previews

(3.502x) of Nun II ~$10.86M THUR Previews

(4.973x) of Asteroid City ~$5.47M THUR Previews

(4.048x) of Saw X ~$8.09M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $7.17M

 

This is a pretty amazing start. Has breakout written all over it 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	1136	27239	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

201

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.454x) of Mi7 ~$10.18M THUR Previews

(1.054x) of Oppenheimer ~$11.06M THUR Previews

(1.182x) of RoTB ~$10.40M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $10.55M

 

Just an exceptional day 2 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
136	421	22614	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.360x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.78M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	439	24356	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

 

(0.365x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.83M THUR Previews

[Taylor89]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

As threatened:

 

Thur:  267/9498 [2.81% sold]

Fri:     389/21,111 [1.84% sold]

 

As I glance at things, there is a Th/F discrepancy at some of the Cinemarks in town:

 

Century Arden [Thr: 49 | Fri: 101]

Blue Oaks         [Thr:   4 |  Fri: 24]

Century Doco   [Thr:  38 | Fri 94]

Century Laguna [Thr: 21 | Fri 62]

 

versus a couple of the Regals:

Regal Delta Shores [Thr: 76 | Fri 37]

Regal El Dorado      [Thr: 25 | Fri 13]

 

which does suggest that some level of Thursday sales were missed when it took the local Cinemarks a bit to get with the program.

 

But how much of that was smoothed out by folks just going to a nearby Regal and/or getting Fri tickets instead, I don't know.  And even then the Friday level of sales isn't exactly that high even with a thumb on the scale.

 

So, as I said, "we'll see".

 

(60 days of pre-sales also should be brought in as a consideration as well)

 

Even some of her dates for her tour took a long time to sell out but at end she managed to sell out them all. Her fanbass isn't same as Taylor's and she still hasn't shared any link in her social media. we shouldn't compare her to taylor..

[Sparkle Jump Rope Queen]

12 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

Then don't put them next to each other..

idk why you're sassing me rn lol i just made an observation calm down 

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-59 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
158	1042	31688	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First Few hours

 

0.133x behind TET first few hours 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Flip said:

Is Beyoncé no refunds like TET?

 

Yes.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
149	787	26279	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

72

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(3.858x) of Talk to me~$4.80M THUR Previews

(2.872x) of Boogeyman~$3.16M THUR Previews

(1.439x) of Nun II~$4.46M THUR Previews

(1.997x) of Saw X~$3.99M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $4.10M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	862	27238	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(4.009x) of Talk to me~$4.99M THUR Previews

(2.826x) of Boogeyman~$3.11M THUR Previews

(1.404x) of Nun II~$4.35M THUR Previews

(1.924x) of Saw X~$3.85M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $4.08M

[filmlover]

It's hard to compare FNAF to anything when it's only being booked on one screen at most theaters for that weekend so far. Only expectations one should have is for it to immediately fall off a cliff after the opening weekend, regardless the dollar amount.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11482	43831	26.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

126

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.855x) of Barbie ~$18.05M FRIDAY for TET

(1.028x) of ATSV~$17.83M FRIDAY for TET

(1.714x) of TLM~$17.66M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.85M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.99M

 

T-12 comps

(2.120x) of GOTG3~$37.10M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $51.94M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11576	43831	26.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

94

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.862x) of Barbie ~$18.19M FRIDAY for TET

(1.036x) of ATSV~$17.98M FRIDAY for TET

(1.728x) of TLM~$17.80M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.99M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $25.19M

 

T-11 comps

(2.056x) of GOTG3~$35.98M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $50.37M

 

Much better pace in the past 2 days, but still slipping rapidly against Guardians. 

[DisposedData]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's hard to compare FNAF to anything when it's only being booked on one screen at most theaters for that weekend so far. Only expectations one should have is for it to immediately fall off a cliff after the opening weekend, regardless the dollar amount.

I really don't see why that should be expected tbh. I think you guys are vastly overstating how frontloaded it will be.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I really don't see why that should be expected tbh. I think you guys are vastly overstating how frontloaded it will be.

 

Well, if it isn't frontloaded to some degree, then we're looking at huge pre-sale number.  

 

To put it a different way, we're already out of the range of things like Scream VI, M3GAN and even video game adaptations like Sonic 2 and more into the realm of GA friendly action-adventure flicks.
 

To put it yet another way.... Barbie was at 632 tickets sold locally after its first full day of sales (196 EA-only tickets sold the day before) and that wasn't a frontloaded movie in terms of sales when all was said and done.  

 

Why bring up Barbie?  Because FNAF outsold Barbie by seven tickets in the Greater Sacto market.

 

If you want us to rephrase our arguments, it is quite likely that for a horror flick there is frontloading going on for FNAF.  Emphasis on for a horror flick. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon496]

FNAF $100m OW

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, if it isn't frontloaded to some degree, then we're looking at huge pre-sale number.  

 

To put it a different way, we're already out of the range of things like Scream VI, M3GAN and even video game adaptations like Sonic 2 and more into the realm of GA friendly action-adventure flicks.

 

BTW, I really want to emphasize how *UNLIKE* a horror film FNAF is performing.

 

How will I do this?

 

Here are some M3GAN numbers from Yours Truly:

 

T-3

Quote

Always dangerous to only have one real comp for a film locally, but I admit to being slightly curious and so...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

 

371/5745 (6.46% sold) 

30.51% of Nope at T-3         (1.95m)

----

22.76% of Sonic 2 at T-3                           (1.42m)

19.48% of Minions 2 at T-3                       (2.09m)

31.52% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-3 (1.42m)

 

That's... not bad?  Especially considering the super long pre-sale period of Nope?  

 

Didn't do a Q&D of Halloween Ends and my Q&Ds of Scream were at T-1.5 and T-1, so don't have comps against that.  Don't really have anything else that should be as remotely walkup heavy (although, for shits and giggles, as noted the Minions 2 comp gives 2.09m).

 

Again, v v v dangerous to only comp against one movie, but it's not like I have much better.

 

Still...  Seen worse.

 

T-2

Quote

Might as well keep it up...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

494/6973 (7.08% sold) [+123 tickets]

31.89% of Nope at T-2       (2.04m)

---

23.57% of Sonic 2 at T-2                           (1.47m)

18.07% of Minions 2 at T-2                        (1.94m)

32.72% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-2 (1.47m)

 

T-1

Quote

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

812/7128 (11.39% sold) [+318 tickets]

35.95% of Nope at T-1                             (2.30m)

50.66% of Scream (2022) at T-1             (1.77m)

---

28.17% of Sonic 2 at T-1                           (1.76m)

20.20% of Minions 2 at T-1                       (2.17m)

39.04% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-1 (1.76m)

 

=====

 

 

FNAF was already at the same spot M3GAN was locally at approx T-1.5!!!

 

It took Scream VI over two weeks of pre-sales for it to get what FNAF got in one day [639 tickets sold]:

 

Scream VI T-15: 620 tickets sold

Scream VI T-14: 656 tickets sold

 

And so on and so on and so on.

 

NB::

 

A reminder that calling something frontloaded isn't a negative thing! At least not in my opinion. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Porthos

[emoviefan]

Yep I have officially become my parents. Five Nights Of What? 

[Youngstar]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yep I have officially become my parents. Five Nights Of What? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Nights_at_Freddy's

[emoviefan]

Just now, Youngstar said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Nights_at_Freddy's

I know what it is. LOL  Just mean I am so out of the target and do not care that my eyes glaze over reading those presales figures. Glad the box will be strong in October though. KOTFM only movie I am interested this month though. 

[HummingLemon496]

FNAF is getting to $100m, whatever it takes

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, DisposedData said:

I really don't see why that should be expected tbh. I think you guys are vastly overstating how frontloaded it will be.

The fact they made it a day-and-date title without a paywall on a streaming service (and tampered expectations in terms of quality/crossover appeal because of that), perhaps. Also because spooky season ends less than a week after it comes out. Will gladly be proven wrong if those signs prove misleading.