The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Reminder 

 

This isn’t a discussion thread for movies. We have threads for them. This is for tracking.

[vafrow]

Cineplex still hasn't put either FNAF or Beyonce on sale yet. Beyonce was added as a "coming soon" earlier today.

 

I'm a little surprised by lack of movement on FNAF. They don't usually align with US ticket sale starts, but this one is already only just over 3 weeks out. It should go on sale soon.

[Outlander]

2 hours ago, Taylor89 said:

 

Even some of her dates for her tour took a long time to sell out but at end she managed to sell out them all. Her fanbass isn't same as Taylor's and she still hasn't shared any link in her social media. we shouldn't compare her to taylor..

I dont know why you're so adamant on not comparing them. This website literally does comps with other films 24/7. 

They are both of the same genre of films so it makes sense why they're being compared. Its really not that serious...

[keysersoze123]

On 10/1/2023 at 5:06 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews - 16121/156586 226408.41 1123 shows

Friday - 14175/234081 194955.03 1642 shows

 

Really strong start with low show count. 

 

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews - 22063/157845 307086.27 1136 shows

Friday - 20623/236106 281870.97 1661 shows

 

Really Good Day 2. 

 

On 9/29/2023 at 10:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1

Previews - 14129/288664 271395.71 1739 shows

Friday - 9212/410306 178244.50 2447 shows

 

It has slowed down after a good OD. I am sure Marty would hit talk shows and is capable of marketing it himself even if SAG strike is not resolved by release as its most likely. It just sells as another Leo/Marty joint anyway. Plus the critical acclaim is a huge factor. 

 

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1

Previews - 16073/289347 305770.47 1745 shows

Friday - 11024/412665 211829.40 2459 shows

 

I thought the start was fairly good for the genre. But its thunder has been stolen by Freddy's at this point. Still expecting a good OW for this. Look at ATP between the 2 movies. Flower Moon is way higher due to Imax/PLF. Freddy's has very low ATP and so its presales is driven by regular shows. 

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1

Previews - 50100/281381 1283443.00 1356 shows

Friday - 33204/622164 855270.00 2929 shows

Renaissance MTC1 

Previews - 67900/286431 1726554.00 1389 shows

Friday - 46806/629087 1198846.00 2968 shows

 

Good finish to opening day presales. Raw $ while this has to be the 2nd biggest OD presales for thursday previews this year after Eras. In ticket numbers it has to be 4th biggest after Eras, Quantumania and just behind Guardians 3. Considering tiny show count its very impressive indeed. 

 

in NYC Imax tickets goes for for 30 bucks while Dolby is at 32 bucks a pop !!!

Edited October 3, 2023 by keysersoze123

[vale9001]

4 hours ago, Youngstar said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Nights_at_Freddy's

Oh so It's not original but a well know brand of video games.  So It could be frontloaded for this reason. Probably will need some strong viral campaign (and then reviews) at the right Moment to really made a record breaking result. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by vale9001

[Jake4]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1 

Previews - 67900/286431 1726554.00 1389 shows

Friday - 46806/629087 1198846.00 2968 shows

 

Good finish to opening day presales. Raw $ while this has to be the 2nd biggest OD presales for thursday previews this year after Eras. In ticket numbers it has to be 4th biggest after Eras, Quantumania and just behind Guardians 3. Considering tiny show count its very impressive indeed. 

 

in NYC Imax tickets goes for for 30 bucks while Dolby is at 32 bucks a pop !!!

in numbers, what do you think her first day presale is?

[Porthos]

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-59 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10357	10728	371	3.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

371

 

0.07008x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

 

Regal:     148/4145  [3.57% sold]

 

====

 

If I didn't know that AMC was blowing up, relatively speaking at least, I wouldn't even begin to consider using The Era Tours as a comp, as even with a slightly more straightforward ATP calculation, it looks like the sales pattern locally is gonna be radically different.

 

Problem is, I haven't a clue as to what to use in its place.  Probably will want to see the pre-sale pattern for a few days before I get handle on what, if anything, I'm going to use.  Tempted to use Fast X and its insane 99 day pre-sale window as something of a rough estimate, but still want to see some more days roll in before committing.

 

Speaking of which, I'll probably keep using a D1 TET "comp" as my sole benchmark.  Not that it makes much of a difference as I always shift off of Day x pattern by Day 3 or 4 anyways, but I tend to think a D2-D2 comp is even more worthless at least in this AMC-less market.

 

Aside from that, probably gonna crib off the homework of what other trackers are doing sleep on it. Might depend on just how relatively backloaded I think this will end up being (at least when it comes to using Fast X + insane ATP adj).

[Porthos]

On 10/2/2023 at 12:28 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	150	11339	19641	8302	42.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	50.22		347	16532		0/308	21020/37552	44.02%		28183	29.46%		25.11m	36.41m
MoM	76.61		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	39.31%		27.58m	39.99m
Thor 4	118.91		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	48.94%		34.48m	50.00m
BP2	111.95		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	49.42%		31.35m	45.45m
AM3	165.54		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	79.26%		28.97m	42.01m
GOTG3	220.10		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	77.23%		38.52m	55.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-12 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	191.38		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	70.61%
JWD	295.23		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	75.71%
Ava 2	264.90		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	92.39%
AtSV	385.42		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	85.20%
Barbie	360.96		164	2300		0/99	10413/12713	18.09%		12077	68.74%
Oppy	627.51		123	1323		0/57	7511/8834	14.98%		4621	179.66%
Barben	229.15		287	3623		0/156	17924/21547	16.81%		16698	49.72%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2351/6150  [38.23% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	150	11282	19641	8359	42.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

57

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	49.17		467	16999		0/308	20553/37552	45.27%		28183	29.66%		24.59m	35.65m
MoM	75.82		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	39.58%		27.29m	39.58m
Thor 4	116.36		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	49.28%		33.74m	48.93m
BP2	109.76		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	49.76%		30.73m	44.56m
AM3	161.46		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	79.80%		28.26m	40.97m
GOTG3	215.27		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	77.76%		37.67m	54.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-11 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	187.09		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	71.10%
JWD	279.19		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	76.23%
Ava 2	252.46		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	93.02%
AtSV	372.01		93	2247		0/129	18539/20786	10.81%		9744	85.79%
Barbie	334.09		202	2502		0/99	10211/12713	19.68%		12077	69.21%
Oppy	599.21		72	1395		0/57	7439/8834	15.79%		4621	180.89%
Barben	214.50		274	3897		0/156	17650/21547	18.09%		16698	50.06%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2365/6150  [38.46% sold]

[Porthos]

On 10/2/2023 at 12:29 AM, Porthos said:

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	52	6623	7262	639	8.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

639

 

Day 1:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	150.00		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	14.22%		11.25m
Wick4	132.85		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	11.73%		11.82m
AtSV	62.71		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	6.56%		10.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     172/3078  [5.59% sold]
Matinee:    68/926  [7.34% | 10.64% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Yeaaaaah, this is breaking out all right, even if it is frontloaded to one degree or another. Ended up smoking John Wick 4 when all was said and done.  Can't even really point to sales starting at 9pm local time last night, as that was "only" 62 tickets or so.

 

Didn't even bother with the Scream VI comp (17.1m, ftr).  All my other comps are either far too small, far too long of a pre-sale window, or far too big to be meaningful.  I suppose an interesting one is The Flash at 9.68m (639/640).  But everything else is lol for one reason or another.

 

Well, maybe so are those D1 comps above.  Find out soon enuf, I suppose.

 

(anyone wants to suggest possible comps, be my guest)

((before anyone suggests it:  GOTG3 D1: 5.91m [639/1892]))

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	8837	9680	843	8.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	2418
Total Seats Sold Today	204

 

Day 2:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	167.93		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	18.76%		12.59m
Wick4	128.31		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	15.47%		11.42m
AtSV	66.27		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	8.65%		11.50m
GOTG3	39.08		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	7.84%		6.84m
Flash	111.21		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	15.83%		10.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     236/3078  [7.67% sold]
Matinee:    97/926   [10.48% | 11.51% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Well, that didn't take long.  At all.

 

A bunch of the local Cinemarks added full PLF schedules for FNAF (two theaters are still uncommitted) and accounted for all of the added showtimes tonight.  FWIW, the two local Regals that have IMAX screens are pot-committed to KotFM for all of Thursday while the lone Regal with an RPX screen also is going for FNAF (though they already decided that yesterday).

 

If this is a trend nationwide for Cinemarks, this is gonna leave a mark on KotFM's legs as not only are these local Cinemarks going Full PLFs for FNAF on Thursday Previews, they're also committing their XD screens all throughout the weekend to FNAF.  Not even giving KotFM even one pity PLF showing at any point during the weekend.

 

Not much else to add, except to say it was a really nice Day 2.  Will shift to T-x comps on Thursday, which will scramble the comps in several directions, and I will almost certainly drop the GOTG3 comp due to pre-sale window length differences (though I reserve the right to bring it back later).  Only real reason I even added it tonight was to show relative strength so far.

 

NB:  Forgot to mention yesterday that the local Cinema West theaters are, as is typical lately, late to the party.  They'll probably get added sometime in the next few days, but probably won't account for that many new sales at first even when they do, due to the initial rush of sales being over...  Probably.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Porthos

[Taylor89]

6 hours ago, Outlander said:

I dont know why you're so adamant on not comparing them. This website literally does comps with other films 24/7. 

They are both of the same genre of films so it makes sense why they're being compared. Its really not that serious...

And I don't know why my comment bothered you so much. Never said don't use eras as a comp, first it's not my place and sec Beyonce's audience is completely different and she doesn't have Taylor's hype..

Edited October 3, 2023 by Taylor89

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 hours ago, Jake4 said:

in numbers, what do you think her first day presale is?

Renaissance first day previews + OD ticket sales at MTC1 = 115K.
 

If we comp that against  Eras first day OD + Saturday (since Friday is playing like previews) which was 695K, then adjust it upwards by 24% for higher ATP we get first day presales at MTC1 in the $5-6M range vs $26M for Eras. 
 

Obviously the comp would be more accurate if we had the first 2 weekends worth of sales for both but this should work fairly well. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	8837	9680	843	8.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	2418
Total Seats Sold Today	204

 

Day 2:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	167.93		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	18.76%		12.59m
Wick4	128.31		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	15.47%		11.42m
AtSV	66.27		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	8.65%		11.50m
GOTG3	39.08		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	7.84%		6.84m
Flash	111.21		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	15.83%		10.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     236/3078  [7.67% sold]
Matinee:    97/926   [10.48% | 11.51% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Well, that didn't take long.  At all.

 

A bunch of the local Cinemarks added full PLF schedules for FNAF (two theaters are still uncommitted) and accounted for all of the added showtimes tonight.  FWIW, the two local Regals that have IMAX screens are pot-committed to KotFM for all of Thursday while the lone Regal with an RPX screen also is going for FNAF (though they already decided that yesterday).

 

If this is a trend nationwide for Cinemarks, this is gonna leave a mark on KotFM's legs as not only are these local Cinemarks going Full PLFs for FNAF on Thursday Previews, they're also committing their XD screens all throughout the weekend to FNAF.  Not even giving KotFM even one pity PLF showing at any point during the weekend.

 

Not much else to add, except to say it was a really nice Day 2.  Will shift to T-x comps on Thursday, which will scramble the comps in several directions, and I will almost certainly drop the GOTG3 comp due to pre-sale window length differences (though I reserve the right to bring it back later).  Only real reason I even added it tonight was to show relative strength so far.

 

NB:  Forgot to mention yesterday that the local Cinema West theaters are, as is typical lately, late to the party.  They'll probably get added sometime in the next few days, but probably won't account for that many new sales at first even when they do, due to the initial rush of sales being over...  Probably.

 

My PLF Cinemark has gone 2 screens for FNAF, with 1 of its 2 PLFs already committed.  So, it is a trend across coasts...

[TwoMisfits]

Killers of the Flower Moon is not just gonna sit back and see how it does.

 

Like Equalizer 3, KOTFM will be offering a $5 PLF/reg all-in ticket deal through TMobile and Atom tickets in 2 weeks.  As always, the effect is usually felt through the week, and not all in one day, and it will allow any presale ticket through the opening Sunday (and it will probably deflate presales on the Monday and possibly Sunday preceding the deal as well).

 

Male 13-45 movies have had the best effects from these deals in 2023.  Urban area attracting ones as well, b/c they have the highest ticket prices to start.  

Edited October 3, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

Really seems as though the industry was caught off guard by the early strong sales for both KOTFM and especially FNAF, and now it’s a scramble to figure out how best allocate the PLFs, in the shadow of week 2 & 3 of Swift’s ERAS 

 

October is shaping up to be a pretty solid month all around, won’t be surprised if it outgrosses November, as it did in 2021 with the Venom 2, NTTD, Halloween & Dune stretch 

[jeffthehat]

On 10/2/2023 at 7:56 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-11

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 106

Seats sold - 6446

Total seats - 17681

% sold - 36.5%

New sales - 126 (+2%)

3-day average of new sales - 97.3 tickets/day

 

Looks like an SNF bounce. Could also still be trending up.  

 

Comp at local Malco

 

Barbie T-2 hours (1.26x) - $28m/ $40.6m ATP adjusted (+45%)

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-10 

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 106

Seats sold - 6536

Total seats - 17681

% sold - 37%

New sales - 90 (+1.4%)

4-day average of new sales - 95.5 tickets/day

 

Comp at local Malco

 

Barbie T-2 hours (1.28x) - $28.5m / $41.4m

 

---

 

This held up nice. 

 

On 9/11/2023 at 11:02 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-32

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5026

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 28.74%

New sales - 70 (+1.4%)

3-day average of new sales - 78.6 tickets 

 

Slowed down a little bit. But not doing that bad. If it can maintain this pace, should end up with ~1500 more sales by T-10ish. From there it will be ~35-40% capacity, which leaves room for a nice bump through T-Final. Fully expecting this to finish north of 60% capacity at this point. 

 

Less bullish on 60% capacity (don't think I factored in added seats right). Thinking this finishes with 10k-14k sales here. 

 

[el sid]

The Exorcist II, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 135 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 107 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 21 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 145 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 431 (7 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 850.

Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Nun II (3.1M from previews) had 459 sold tickets,
Saw X (2M) had 400,
Halloween Ends (5.4M) had 906,
M3gan (2.75M) had 274 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 213,
The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 104
and Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115 sold tickets.

At the moment from all comps more than 4M, nice. But let's see which jumps it has in the next few days.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

@keysersoze123 Can you pull Renaissance MTC1 Sat/Sun when you have a moment?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

@keysersoze123 Can you pull Renaissance MTC1 Sat/Sun when you have a moment?

I am traveling to work. Will check tomorrow.

[el sid]

FNAF, counted today for Thursday, October 26. 23 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 112 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 163 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 34 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 25 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 56 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 84 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 480 (6 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 954 (!).

Comps: M3gan (2.75M from previews) had after 1-2 days 57 sold tickets

and The Exorcist II (?) had 268.
Halloween Ends (5.4M) had on Monday of the release week (= FNAF has 20 days left to increase the margin) 906 sold tickets,
The Nun II (3.1M) had on Monday of the release week 459 sold tickets
and Saw X (2M) had also on Monday of the release week 400 sold tickets.

Maybe it's indeed frontloaded but the presales are just great. Another good sign is that its sales are fine in every region.

Edited October 3, 2023 by el sid