The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

I mean, even if Orlando is gonna be a bellwether for Haunted Mansion, (and I think @TheFlatLannister would probably agree it being a special case due to the Disney connection), here is the TLM-HM comp for the last few days:

 

T-21: 5.3m

T-20: 5.3m

T-19: 5.5m

T-18: 5.7m

T-17: 5.8m

T-16: 5.5m

T-15: 5.47m

T-14: 5.58m

T-13: 5.53m

 

Outside of that small burst, that's a pretty amazingly stable comp, really

[TheFlatLannister]

I have no clear idea what HM will do. Would not be shocked with $4M or $6M+

 

Hopefully other trackers start looking at it. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I have no clear idea what HM will do. Would not be shocked with $4M or $6M+

 

Hopefully other trackers start looking at it. 

 

Been glancing at it off and on and will prob start occasional Q&Ds Real Soon Now.

 

(not daily Q&Ds though, lolno. )

[Rocketracoon]

What would be The IM on Haunted Mansion?

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, LegionWrex said:

Does anybody know when tickets for Meg 2 go on sale?

 

@datpepper is our main source on things like that right now, and I don't believe they've said anything about it yet.

 

Just did a check and there aren't any showtimes up yet so I personally wouldn't expect ticket sales until Monday at the earliest.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I have no clear idea what HM will do. Would not be shocked with $4M or $6M+

 

Hopefully other trackers start looking at it. 

 

I'm keeping tabs on it but I have no good comps

[XXR & Friends]

17 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

What would be The IM on Haunted Mansion?

 

Through years of intense training and my almost computer like understanding of data, I can say with 98.75% accuracy that it'll be between 3 and 16.

[misterpepp]

4 hours ago, LegionWrex said:

Does anybody know when tickets for Meg 2 go on sale?

 

55 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

@datpepper is our main source on things like that right now, and I don't believe they've said anything about it yet.

 

Just did a check and there aren't any showtimes up yet so I personally wouldn't expect ticket sales until Monday at the earliest.

 

Still waiting on an exact date, but showtimes are populating, so it should be sometime next week.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, XXR Union Solidarity said:

 

Through years of intense training and my almost computer like understanding of data, I can say with 98.75% accuracy that it'll be between 3 and 16.

 

How Deadline of you.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	73	8229	10147	1918	18.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	94
Total Seats Sold Today	170

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	147.31		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	51.32%		9.13m
Dune	183.02		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	65.80%		9.33m
JWD	49.37		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	17.49%		8.89m
BP2	22.02		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	11.42%		6.17m
Ava 2	46.17		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	21.34%		7.85m
Wick 4	109.98		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	35.21%		9.79m
FX	129.59		43	1480		0/179	26661/28141	5.26%		4122	46.53%		9.72m
Indy 5	110.61		74	1734		0/178	23414/25148	6.90%		4767	40.23%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       402/3144  [12.79% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.68% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                  650/776 [+19 tickets] [33.89% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    906/4494 [+100 tickets] [47.24% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           362/4877 [+51 tickets] [18.87% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	75	8239	10310	2071	20.09%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	163
Total Seats Sold Today	153

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	145.13		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	55.42%		9.00m
Dune	181.51		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		2915	71.05%		9.26m
JWD	49.66		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	18.89%		8.94m
BP2	22.75		395	9104		2/308	29023/38127	23.88%		16800	12.33%		6.37m
Ava 2	47.18		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	23.05%		8.02m
Wick 4	109.11		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	38.01%		9.71m
FX	132.67		81	1561		0/179	26583/28144	5.55%		4122	50.24%		9.95m
Indy 5	110.45		73	1875		0/134	18832/20707	9.05%		4767	43.44%		7.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:      455/3144  [14.47% sold]
Matinee:          15/81  [18.52% | 0.72% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                    664/776 [+14 tickets] [32.06% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1004/4494 [+98 tickets] [48.48% of all tickets sold]
Standard:            403/5040 [+41 tickets] [19.46% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

I accidentally shorted Oppenheimer 38 tickets sold last night due to an input error on my spreadsheet.  Spent the last 10-15 min fixing everything in the charts and comps in the last post, so what is quoted is in fact correct.  But for those keeping track Oppenheimer sold 170 tickets in the region yesterday, not 132.

(a "4" was inputted as opposed to a "42")

Edited July 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	180	17310	21412	4102	19.16%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	34
Total Net Seats Sold Today	390

* NOTE:  Two early access shows which had 50 seats sold between them were removed from the schedule two days ago and enough time has passed to conclude that, currently at least, they are no longer available to be purchased (see this post for details).  The actual seats sold in the region today was 440 seats sold (440 - 50 = 390).

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	69.02		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	35.75%		13.29m
JWD	105.59		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	37.41%		19.01m
BA	293.63		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	91.28%		22.02m
Ava 2	98.75		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	45.65%		16.79m
Scream 6	406.54		117	1009		0/77	8738/9747	10.35%		3134	130.89%		23.17m
Wick 4	235.21		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	75.29%		20.93m
GOTG3	88.58		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	38.16%		15.50m
FX	277.16		43	1480		0/179	26661/28141	5.26%		4122	99.51%		20.79m
TLM	169.36		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	62.52%		17.44m
AtSV	135.42		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	42.10%		23.50m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         815/5862  [13.90% sold]
Matinee:    335/2439  [13.74% | 8.17% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:         362/422 [85.78% sold]   [-47 tickets sold]
Thr:    3740/20990 [17.82% sold] [+437 tickets sold]

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	180	17188	21758	4570	21.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

468

NOTE:  Total seats jumped up 346 seats as a theater transferred one set of their showings to a PLF auditorium with all previously seats sold transferred over to the new seat map on a seat-for-seat basis.

 

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	72.06		399	6342		0/271	30967/37309	17.00%		11474	39.83%		13.88m
JWD	109.59		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	41.67%		19.73m
BA	300.46		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	101.69%		22.53m
Ava 2	104.10		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	50.86%		17.70m
Scream 6	426.31		63	1072		0/77	8675/9747	11.00%		3134	145.82%		24.30m
Wick 4	240.78		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	83.88%		21.43m
GOTG3	92.36		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	42.51%		16.16m
FX	292.76		81	1561		0/179	26583/28144	5.55%		4122	110.87%		21.96m
TLM	177.61		151	2573		0/173	21977/24550	10.48%		6561	69.65%		18.29m
AtSV	138.69		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	46.90%		24.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        873/5862  [14.89% sold]
Matinee:    372/2439  [15.25% | 8.14% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        380/422 [90.05% sold] [+18 tickets sold]
Thr:    4190/21336 [19.64% sold] [+450 tickets sold]

[vafrow]

On 7/14/2023 at 5:12 AM, vafrow said:

 

Expand  

 

Barbie T-7, Milton, ON

 

Steady growth continues. Sales at 128, up 20 from the day before.

 

7.111x of TLM for $73.2M

1.174x of ATSV for $20.4M

2.000x of MI7 for $14.0M

 

From a dollar perspective, the continued rise against ATSV is the key one. ATSV overindexed here, so to be ahead and growing is a strong indication of where things are headed. Plus, ATSV was also only limited to one non plf theatre for previews, so it's a good comparison in that regard.

 

Barbie T-6, Milton, ON

 

Sales up to 151, an 18% increase from yesterday.

 

Continues to grow against comps, except MI7 which started accelerating in my market around now, but still well ahead in absolute sales.

 

Fun fact, Barbie at T-6 has outsold the final sales of Fast X, T:ROTB, Flash and Indy.

 

7.190x of TLM for $74.1M

1.248x of ATSV for $21.7M

1.911x of MI7 for $13.4M

 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

(Pulled these numbers last night but wasn't able to post them)

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17, T-15	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 15 theaters	87	72	72	13080	0.55
Monday EA: 6 theaters	6	98	98	1190	8.24
Saturday EA: 5 theaters	5	56	56	603	9.29
TOTALS:	98	226	226	14873	1.52

 

Comp:

1.81x Haunted Mansion

 

Pleasantly surprised at how many shows are available, even with a few of the theaters I usually count missing showtimes still.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-6	Jax	6	59	206	1,164	7,462	15.60%
		Phx	7	68	204	1,207	10,113	11.94%
		Ral	8	60	169	1,391	6,730	20.67%
	Total		21	187	579	3,762	24,305	15.48%
Barbie (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	3	6	236	319	73.98%
		Phx	1	1	3	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	7	175	190	92.11%
	Total		5	6	16	613	717	85.50%
Oppenheimer	T-6	Jax	6	28	77	614	5,083	12.08%
		Phx	6	26	54	596	3,996	14.91%
		Ral	8	28	52	639	3,427	18.65%
	Total		20	82	183	1,849	12,506	14.78%

 

Oppenheimer T-6 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .482x (8.67m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .654x (9.61m)

 - Avatar 2 - .502x (8.53m)

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.095x (6.98m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 1.855x (13.35m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.543x (14.51m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .423x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.17m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-6 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.188x (20.19m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.14x (20.51m)

 - Indiana Jones - 4.388x (31.59m)

 - Shazam 2 - 8.45x (28.72m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.028x (19.84m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.69x (20.21m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.35x (20.08m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.366x

 

Size adjusted average - 21.29m

 

Nothing to see here, just another insane day of sales.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-5	Jax	6	70	112	1,276	8,401	15.19%
		Phx	7	73	160	1,367	11,047	12.37%
		Ral	8	61	140	1,531	6,793	22.54%
	Total		21	204	412	4,174	26,241	15.91%
Barbie (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	3	5	241	319	75.55%
		Phx	1	1	0	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	0	175	190	92.11%
	Total		5	6	5	618	717	86.19%
Oppenheimer	T-5	Jax	6	28	51	665	5,083	13.08%
		Phx	6	27	41	637	4,102	15.53%
		Ral	8	28	48	687	3,427	20.05%
	Total		20	83	140	1,989	12,612	15.77%

 

Oppenheimer T-5 comps

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .644x (9.47m)

 - Avatar 2 - .508x (8.63m)

 - Matrix (OD) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 1.76x (12.67m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.76x (13.13m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .415x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.94m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-5 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.223x (20.79m)

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 4.241x (30.53m)

 - Shazam 2 - 8.745x (29.73m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.049x (20.24m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28.023x (20.46m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Oppenheimer - 2.409x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.72m

 

Here are my highest T-5 totals (excluding any that were missed)

 - NWH - .215x (10.76m)

 - Batman (Total) - .74x (15.98m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .925x (16.19m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.049x (20.24m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.223x (20.79m)

 - Black Widow - 1.501x (19.81m)

 - Eternals - 2.083x (19.79m)

 

At 4,792 total tickets sold, Barbie has passed the T-0 morning sample of all but 12 movies I've tracked.  Not sure where it will end up, but I'd wager in the 11k-12k range that morning (around Batman's total with EA).  

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-13	Jax	5	31	3	70	3,813	1.84%
		Phx	6	27	8	68	4,543	1.50%
		Ral	8	30	1	49	3,672	1.33%
	Total		19	88	12	187	12,028	1.55%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	0	42	395	10.63%
		Phx	1	1	5	53	208	25.48%
	Total		4	4	5	95	603	15.75%
Talk to Me	T-13	Jax	4	10	3	3	1,029	0.29%
		Phx	5	11	9	9	1,258	0.72%
		Ral	6	16	1	3	1,567	0.19%
	Total		15	37	13	15	3,854	0.39%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-13 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .678x (2.3m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .15x (3.19m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.525x (5.11m)

 - Nope - .806x (5.16m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .6x (3.75m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .477x (2.86m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.863x (10.43m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.39m

 

Talk to Me T-13 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .109x (326k)

 - M3GAN - .455x (1.25m)

 

Still much too early for horror to pop.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-12	Jax	5	31	12	82	3,813	2.15%
		Phx	6	27	2	70	4,543	1.54%
		Ral	8	30	6	55	3,672	1.50%
	Total		19	88	20	207	12,028	1.72%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-11	Jax	2	2	1	43	395	10.89%
		Phx	1	1	1	54	208	25.96%
	Total		4	4	2	97	603	16.09%
Talk to Me	T-12	Jax	5	13	2	5	1,218	0.41%
		Phx	5	11	5	14	1,258	1.11%
		Ral	6	16	0	3	1,567	0.19%
	Total		16	40	7	22	4,043	0.54%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-12 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .712x (2.42m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .146x (3.31m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Nope - .796x (5.09m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .606x (3.78m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .459x (2.76m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.663x (9.89m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.68m

 

Talk to Me T-12 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .154x (462k)

 - M3GAN - missed

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-18	Jax	5	40	34	34	5,828	0.58%
		Phx	6	59	65	65	8,926	0.73%
		Ral	5	35	48	48	5,055	0.95%
	Total		16	134	147	147	19,809	0.74%
Turtles (EA)	T-15	Jax	4	6	18	18	384	4.69%
		Phx	1	1	8	8	169	4.73%
		Ral	3	3	40	40	433	9.24%
	Total		8	10	66	66	986	6.69%
	T-17	Jax	5	7	46	46	961	4.79%
		Phx	1	1	42	42	208	20.19%
	Total		7	9	88	88	1,169	7.53%

 

Turtles (Total) T-18 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .225x (4.8m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .133x (2.39m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .865x (5.41m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-17	Jax	5	40	6	40	5,828	0.69%
		Phx	6	59	11	76	8,926	0.85%
		Ral	5	35	12	60	5,055	1.19%
	Total		16	134	29	176	19,809	0.89%
Turtles (EA)	T-14	Jax	4	6	3	21	384	5.47%
		Phx	1	1	7	15	169	8.88%
		Ral	3	3	16	56	433	12.93%
	Total		8	10	26	92	986	9.33%
	T-16	Jax	5	7	10	56	961	5.83%
		Phx	1	1	2	44	208	21.15%
	Total		7	9	12	100	1,169	8.55%

 

Turtles (Total) T-17 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .255x (5.78m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .155x (2.79m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .974x (6.08m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.67x (4.68 w/ today's average)

Edited July 15, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Add Haunted Mansion comp

[M37]

On 7/13/2023 at 7:52 AM, M37 said:

Alright, time to delve into this a little bit. Gong to be a long post, so putting it behind spoiler boxes to not clog up  the thread. Grab a seat - maybe even a drink or snack - before diving in ...

 

1. Baseline

  Reveal hidden contents

When I create and post the graphs of all the values vs comps, what I hope to see is 1) a lot of straight-ish lines, indicating pace is matching over time  & verifying comps are appropriate, and 2) the values are mostly clustered together, though some high and/or low outliers are common. For example, here is Oppenheimer as of the T-9/8 round of updates:

 

 

Clearly Denver loves Nolan more than Indy, Jax/Pho/Ral is starting to as well, Orlando isn't as Furious about Oppy, and the combination of post-July 4th and premiere reactions boosted sales (curved up) the last couple of days ... but overall that's a workable chart. Eyeballing approximately $8-10M preview from that (based solely on a visual ballpark guess)

 

2. Outlier (LOL)

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Alright, so Oppenheimer preview tracking is fairly solid, still some wiggle room there, but what about Barbie?

Yeah, this ain't it:

 

Still growing rapidly against basically every single comp, and the spread goes from $15M to over $30M (not pictured), and that doesn't include the >$35M comps that are likely (probably. maybe ...?) not reflective of where this is headed and have been excluded. All we can really glean from this chart is that Barbie is going to be big, really big, but having no idea when and at what value those comps might level off (if not turn down) and possibly converge ... and we're only 9 days away from release

 

3. Hmm

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Almost always, a huge opening has to be "4 Quad", that is appealing to both men and women, over & under 25 - its just really difficult to top $100M in a weekend without pulling in at least some decent amount from each of those groups. Oppenheimer is much more a 2 Quad film, (Dunkirk for reference was 50% Men over 25), but those kind of releases are fairly common - have JW4, Indy and MI7 since March - so there's plenty of comps to use.

 

For Barbie though, there really isn't much in the way of female-skewing big releases (Mermaid is the only one in last 2 years) - which changes the sales patterns, ie when tickets are purchased, and so the comparison at given checkpoints. Plus, even if/when Barbie may level off vs comps, there is an added layer of complexity of limited PLF shows, which will result in a lower ATP and reduce value vs comps

But, what if instead, sales for Barbie & Oppenheimer were combined and then comped for each sample. This first and foremost mostly eliminates the PLF/ATP issue, since Oppy has those (and is selling very well). It would also mostly correct for the Quad issue, because between the two films now we're now assuredly hitting all of the M/F O/U 25 groupings

 

4. Well Then

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Here's how that method looks at first run, throwing a kitchen sink worth of comps at it

 

Certainly not perfect, Denver still going crazy and not even Barbenheimer can match TGM's early sales in Sacto, but overall lines are much flatter (again showing the same curve up in last few days), and while the spread is fairly wide, there's a good amount of clustering in the middle, including with averages. For a backdoor method, might be onto something ...

 

In particular, found this part of the data interesting:

 

While there's still a good amount of variation between markets, both the averages and ALL of the Alpha data points - a large sample across many, many markets, and unadjusted - are decently grouped together. (Note: for Avatar 2 comps, would have to adjust $ value down for a lower ATP, but also not expecting nearly the same flat line final week finish, so at this point in the sales run its IMO mostly a wash in actual value)

 

This grouping by the way, suggests a combined preview in roughly the $26-$33M range - on the level of the MCU big boys of BPWF ($28M), Thor L&T ($29M), and even Strange MoM ($36M) - and if Oppy does indeed stay in the $8-$10M ballpark, that leaves the remaining $18-23M for Barbie

 

 

5. Ok, but

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Some caveats

• There just may not be enough seats for the demand implied by this method and track. We'd have to see showings and seats expanded up to Thor/BWPF level, and also be properly allocated between the two films on individual theater/market level
• Since Barbie accounts for the majority of sales (1.66x ratio as of last Alpha update), the growth rate curve will be weighted towards however it moves
• Typically, the number of people who purchase multiple tickets to a single preview night is very minimal, but with the Double Feature meme having become a reality, the combined total is likely inflated by ~5% or so
• The theory behind the combination method may prove to be invalid, so take it with a grain of salt

 

tl;dr

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We're in range, if pace keeps up and there are enough seats allocated, of something in the neighborhood of $26-$33M of combined previews for Barbenheimer, with Oppy grabbing around $8-$10M of that, and the remainder being covered in Barbie pink

 

 

A $200M+ combined opening weekend is very much in play, though will caution that being without good precedent to light the way, cannot be assured pace will keep up and not tail off vs comps in the final week

Barbenheimer T-7 Update

 

Both films just keep chugging along, really going to be a special weekend. Again using spoiler boxes to limit size of post

 

Charts:

Spoiler

Average here is probably a bit overstated, thinking more $9M than $9.5M

 

Even excluding some of the way high comps, average still over $21M

 

Combined, still ahead of Thor/BWPF, putting $30M+ in play

 

For Barbie, now this is where things get complicated...

Spoiler

From a blind, pure growth rate analysis projection, I would have Barbie reaching 500K tickets sold for Alpha, on the level of Thor & BPWF all by herself ... but that just doesn't seem realistic. The more likely outcome is that the growth rate cools off - can see some flattening out vs comps in last couple of updates - but by how much?

 

I do share some of the concerns that @TwoMisfits expressed yesterday, in that a female driven audience, one where for some going to the movie is as important as actually watching it, has a very real chance of already having sold the bulk of its tickets and not coming close to the growth over the final week as most of these high volume comps (outside super fan heavy MCU)

 

One recent, but certainly imperfect, comp might be Don't Worry Darling, which Deadline reported as 71% F for the OW. There wasn't a whole lot of tracking on it in this thread (starts roughly here), but it was the epitome of early sales and limited walk-ups. For example, in Philly the growth over the final week was a hair under +100%, way below ASTV (+236%), Mermaid (+159%, but overindexed so higher early sales), and even GOTG3 (+115%) for this market. To give a sense of how that affects the $ value, the Dune comp dropped 19% from T-6, Morbius -34%, and ATSV would have been -40%

 

My gut feeling is that we've reached the peak of average values vs comps, and will continue to see some flattening and/or turning down, but to what value is not clear. Maybe it settles into a more normal growth pattern from here (like ASTV or Mermaid), and still winds up over $20M, but do not believe that threshold for Thursday is locked, could even see it as "low" as $15-$16M, if we were to see a similar trajectory from T-7 as Avatar 2 or TGM

 

Oppenheimer, however:

Spoiler

Nothing really of concern here, values are rising steadily as Oppy rides Barbie's coattails. Though due to the heavy PLF draw and older audience, expecting a good chunk of final sales have already been banked, and so not expecting a huge final week, definitely more in Indy 5/TGM/Avatar range, which would land in the ~200K or below final ticket sales for Alpha, which may also overindex (lower PSM). Would think a value closer to $9M (if not below) is more likely than $10M, but the data also supports the higher values at present

 

However, it is difficult to say yet how wide of net Oppy will cast, whether it will play well to older, casual viewers like MI7, Indy 5, TGM, or have business be concentrated in bigger markets - whether the subject or the director is the primary draw here

 

What about IM/OW?

Spoiler

Want to be clear: even though I've tried above to pump the breaks a bit, there are enough sales that even a "weak" finish is still going to be a massive OW for each for each film, and combined at least approaching the level of BPWF ($181.3M) and Strange MoM( $187.4) even it ultimately falls short (and being in summer, should surpass the $220M/$230M first week totals for both)

 

The Drafthouse sales numbers for FSS are really good. At T-7, Friday is already ahead of Thursday, with Saturday even higher, for both Barbie and Oppenheimer. Barbie is ahead of ATSV at this same checkpoint, which landed a nearly 7x back in June. The last Alpha weekend numbers I saw (on T-12) were very similar for both films as where Drafthouse is pointing. Oppy is even better, almost close to Avatar 2's ratios, which was similarly driven by high PLF demand pushing sales later into the weekend, and let to an 8x, albeit in December rather than July.

 

With the caveat that these are both probably going to be early presale heavy films, particularly at Drafthouse (and especially for Barbie where lack of capacity is rolling sales forward), think both films have a good shot at hitting a 7x plus, maybe even 8x or more for Oppy. Do not see any reason in the sales numbers to expect an IM lower than ~6.5x, unless the sales really hit a wall and just don't have much in the way of walk-ups

 

I'm not going to roll out any forecast matrices just yet, want to see how the weekend sales go first, but I'll just say I think generally we're heading towards at least a high $20M combined preview (with $30M+ total and $20M+ for Barbie in play), Barbie is in range of topping both GOTG3 and ATSV for second highest OW, though I'm hesitant to lean into the $140M or even $150M range yet, while Oppenheimer is solidly climbing ahead of the MI7 range, to more of the Flash/Transformers/Indy 5 level

 

And finally ::sigh::

Spoiler

It is absolutely plausible that Barbie in fact winds up with nearly the same $17.5M preview and ~$120M OW as both GOTG3 and ATSV

 

Also, fun fact (per Reddit!): the highest grossing OW without IMAX is $121.9M, by Mockingjay Part 1, which didn't have them because a Christopher Nolan film (Interstellar) did instead

 

[Bobzaruni]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Barbenheimer T-7 Update

 

Both films just keep chugging along, really going to be a special weekend. Again using spoiler boxes to limit size of post

 

Charts:

  Hide contents

Average here is probably a bit overstated, thinking more $9M than $9.5M

 

Even excluding some of the way high comps, average still over $21M

 

Combined, still ahead of Thor/BWPF, putting $30M+ in play

 

For Barbie, now this is where things get complicated...

  Reveal hidden contents

From a blind, pure growth rate analysis projection, I would have Barbie reaching 500K tickets sold for Alpha, on the level of Thor & BPWF all by herself ... but that just doesn't seem realistic. The more likely outcome is that the growth rate cools off - can see some flattening out vs comps in last couple of updates - but by how much?

 

I do share some of the concerns that @TwoMisfits expressed yesterday, in that a female driven audience, one where for some going to the movie is as important as actually watching it, has a very real chance of already having sold the bulk of its tickets and not coming close to the growth over the final week as most of these high volume comps (outside super fan heavy MCU)

 

One recent, but certainly imperfect, comp might be Don't Worry Darling, which Deadline reported as 71% F for the OW. There wasn't a whole lot of tracking on it in this thread (starts roughly here), but it was the epitome of early sales and limited walk-ups. For example, in Philly the growth over the final week was a hair under +100%, way below ASTV (+236%), Mermaid (+159%, but overindexed so higher early sales), and even GOTG3 (+115%) for this market. To give a sense of how that affects the $ value, the Dune comp dropped 19% from T-6, Morbius -34%, and ATSV would have been -40%

 

My gut feeling is that we've reached the peak of average values vs comps, and will continue to see some flattening and/or turning down, but to what value is not clear. Maybe it settles into a more normal growth pattern from here (like ASTV or Mermaid), and still winds up over $20M, but do not believe that threshold for Thursday is locked, could even see it as "low" as $15-$16M, if we were to see a similar trajectory from T-7 as Avatar 2 or TGM

 

Oppenheimer, however:

  Hide contents

Nothing really of concern here, values are rising steadily as Oppy rides Barbie's coattails. Though due to the heavy PLF draw and older audience, expecting a good chunk of final sales have already been banked, and so not expecting a huge final week, definitely more in Indy 5/TGM/Avatar range, which would land in the ~200K or below final ticket sales for Alpha, which may also overindex (lower PSM). Would think a value closer to $9M (if not below) is more likely than $10M, but the data also supports the higher values at present

 

However, it is difficult to say yet how wide of net Oppy will cast, whether it will play well to older, casual viewers like MI7, Indy 5, TGM, or have business be concentrated in bigger markets - whether the subject or the director is the primary draw here

 

What about IM/OW?

  Hide contents

Want to be clear: even though I've tried above to pump the breaks a bit, there are enough sales that even a "weak" finish is still going to be a massive OW for each for each film, and combined at least approaching the level of BPWF ($181.3M) and Strange MoM( $187.4) even it ultimately falls short (and being in summer, should surpass the $220M/$230M first week totals for both)

 

The Drafthouse sales numbers for FSS are really good. At T-7, Friday is already ahead of Thursday, with Saturday even higher, for both Barbie and Oppenheimer. Barbie is ahead of ATSV at this same checkpoint, which landed a nearly 7x back in June. The last Alpha weekend numbers I saw (on T-12) were very similar for both films as where Drafthouse is pointing. Oppy is even better, almost close to Avatar 2's ratios, which was similarly driven by high PLF demand pushing sales later into the weekend, and let to an 8x, albeit in December rather than July.

 

With the caveat that these are both probably going to be early presale heavy films, particularly at Drafthouse (and especially for Barbie where lack of capacity is rolling sales forward), think both films have a good shot at hitting a 7x plus, maybe even 8x or more for Oppy. Do not see any reason in the sales numbers to expect an IM lower than ~6.5x, unless the sales really hit a wall and just don't have much in the way of walk-ups

 

I'm not going to roll out any forecast matrices just yet, want to see how the weekend sales go first, but I'll just say I think generally we're heading towards at least a high $20M combined preview (with $30M+ total and $20M+ for Barbie in play), Barbie is in range of topping both GOTG3 and ATSV for second highest OW, though I'm hesitant to lean into the $140M or even $150M range yet, while Oppenheimer is solidly climbing ahead of the MI7 range, to more of the Flash/Transformers/Indy 5 level

 

And finally ::sigh::

  Hide contents

It is absolutely plausible that Barbie in fact winds up with nearly the same $17.5M preview and ~$120M OW as both GOTG3 and ATSV

 

Also, fun fact (per Reddit!): the highest grossing OW without IMAX is $121.9M, by Mockingjay Part 1, which didn't have them because a Christopher Nolan film (Interstellar) did instead

 

The highest grossing OW without IMAX is actually The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009)—$142.8M—btw! Mockingjay part 1 is the last 100M opener without IMAX.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

The highest grossing OW without IMAX is actually The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009)—$142.8M—btw! 

My apologies, I've blacked out that Thanksgiving week - really all of Holidays 2009-10 - from of my memory

 

Also, what had it that weekend, 2012?

[ZackM]

22 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	21	39	22	8
Seats Added	1,280	2,521	7,493	4,001	1,053
Seats Sold	5,216	4,316	4,255	4,348	2,769
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,452	74,294	281,288	26.41%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	17	52	116	195
ATP	Gross
$18.96	$1,408,614

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	51	10	21	39	22
Seats Added	6,296	1,280	2,521	7,493	4,001
Seats Sold	4,706	5,216	4,316	4,255	4,348
7/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	1,503	79,000	287,584	27.47%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	19	60	132	220
ATP	Gross
$18.87	$1,490,730