The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

That Reddit link did actually summarize this thread well and put information where people can read it in one post instead of digging through pages and pages, not sure why people are going crazy over this

 

 

Edited February 7 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm on Reddit and I'm on here. 

 

That poster has done a great job of amalgamating information and sourcing it to the individual posters here without bogging down this thread. Seems odd to have an axe to grind with that.

Yes, very true.

[excel1]

42 minutes ago, Eric Creed said:

Moderation

 

I'm not sure why I have to explain this, but somebody posting something from Reddit does not break any rules nor is it a bannable offense. If anything, it's pretty darn rude to insult somebody for something so inoffensive. Like if you shared something you made on YouTube or Instagram and got mocked by other people, I don't think you would like that.

 

If you don't care for such content, you can either put the user who did that on your Ignore list or just scroll by the post. You're adults, so I think you are able to just scroll past stuff you don't like. Anybody who posts disrespectful attitudes like these will see warning points and/or threadbans.

 

If you wish to talk about this with me further, please talk with me privately.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

54 minutes ago, leoh said:

Really impressive, Miami maybe?

From what I can tell so far, Miami isn't super presales heavy and is way more walkup skewed. Orlando does the heavy lifting and the Jacksonville area is really strong 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Ive been under the impression for the longest time that Barbie did $1.1M in EA. From what I recall the pre-sales were crazy but since its capacity was so filled up and there wasn’t a ton of screens there were barely any walk-ups 

Yes, you could be correct. I checked my spreadsheet and I have $21.1M for Barbie previews without EA. Deadline reported the previews as $22.3M

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-23

Tickets Sold: 85 (+4)

Growth: 5%

% PLF: 60%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

-------------------------‐--‐--------------------------------------------

Early Access

 

T-19

Tickets Sold: 36

Growth: N/A

% PLF: 100%

1 theater/1 showtime

 

No comps but Dune 2 continues to sell very well here. Still thinking $10M previews at the moment, $70-75M opening. 

[dallas]

23 hours ago, dallas said:

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-9

Tickets Sold: 77 (+3)

% PLF: 35%

Growth: 4%

18 showtimes/5 theaters

 

Comps:

(2.139x) of Mean Girls - $6.95 Million

(0.55x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.48 Million

(5.133x) of Argylle - $8.73 Million

(0.094x) of The Color Purple - $1.69 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.96 Million

 

Saw a slight increase today. I'm thinking this does ~$5M on Valentine's Day, and either legs out to a respectable total or completely plummets due to toxic WOM. 

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-8

Tickets Sold: 94 (+17)

Growth: 22%

% PLF: 35%

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(2.136x) of Mean Girls - $6.94 Million

(0.664x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.99 Million

(4.476x) of Argylle - $7.61 Million

(0.114x) of The Color Purple - $2.1 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.91 Million

 

Solid day of growth for Madame Web. Rose against the Aquaman and TCP comps but fell against Argylle and Mean Girls. Could land around a $4-5M final. 

[dallas]

On 2/5/2024 at 10:40 PM, dallas said:

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-9

131 tickets sold (+28)

Growth: 27%

5 theaters/15 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.160x) of The Color Purple - $2.88 Million

 

Showing some really solid growth here. TCP isn't the best comp so I expect it to debut with a lot higher than $2.88M, will probably land closer to $4-5M. 

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-8

Tickets Sold: 151 (+20)

Growth: 15%

% PLF: 0%

5 theaters/15 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.182x) of The Color Purple - $3.28 Million

 

Really solid day for Bob Marley. Should land around $4-5M opening day, too bad it will be extremely frontloaded though. 

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, dallas said:

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-8

Tickets Sold: 94 (+17)

Growth: 22%

% PLF: 35%

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(2.136x) of Mean Girls - $6.94 Million

(0.664x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.99 Million

(4.476x) of Argylle - $7.61 Million

(0.114x) of The Color Purple - $2.1 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.91 Million

 

Solid day of growth for Madame Web. Rose against the Aquaman and TCP comps but fell against Argylle and Mean Girls. Could land around a $4-5M final. 

Interesting, this solid growth for Madame Web matches Florida/Orlando pre sales pace tracked by @TheFlatLannister and also matches AMC NY theaters numbers I am tracking.

 

So I agree, 4M to 5M on VDay seems to be very likely rn.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-23

Tickets Sold: 85 (+4)

Growth: 5%

% PLF: 60%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

-------------------------‐--‐--------------------------------------------

Early Access

 

T-19

Tickets Sold: 36

Growth: N/A

% PLF: 100%

1 theater/1 showtime

 

No comps but Dune 2 continues to sell very well here. Still thinking $10M previews at the moment, $70-75M opening. 

yeah ~10M seems to be what most of tracks are also appointing to.

 

Do you remember how much it made in pre sales in 2021? I tried to find it on Mojo but they only add Friday straight away without breaking down what’s from previews.

[Goldenhour36]

4 hours ago, dallas said:

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-8

Tickets Sold: 151 (+20)

Growth: 15%

% PLF: 0%

5 theaters/15 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.182x) of The Color Purple - $3.28 Million

 

Really solid day for Bob Marley. Should land around $4-5M opening day, too bad it will be extremely frontloaded though. 

 

Bob Marley is getting a Super Bowl Push while Sony is being silent on Madame Web, is that going to push the gap further between them on V-Day? 

[leoh]

19 minutes ago, Goldenhour36 said:

 

Bob Marley is getting a Super Bowl Push while Sony is being silent on Madame Web, is that going to push the gap further between them on V-Day? 

Edited February 7 by leoh

[vafrow]

On 2/6/2024 at 4:08 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-24 Thursday previews and T-20 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 265

New Sales: 12

Growth: 4.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 205/9

Late Evening: 53/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 48/7

IMAX: 159/4

VIP: 52/5

4dx: 6/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 360

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 3

Growth: 0.8%

 

Nothing eventful. But we know have some trigger events to look forward to with the review embargo. 

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-23 Thursday previews and T-19 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 282

New Sales: 17

Growth: 6.4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 15.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 222/9

Late Evening: 53/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 54/7

IMAX: 164/4

VIP: 56/5

4dx: 8/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 363

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 3

Growth: 0.8%

 

Slight bump in previews. EA shows have been very flat the last couple of days.

[vafrow]

On 2/6/2024 at 4:18 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-9

 

Previews

Total Sales: 93

New Sales: 12

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/0

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 67/6

Late Evening: 19/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 51/5

IMAX: 36/6

VIP: 6/1

 

Comps

1.348x Aquaman 2 for $6.1M

0.520x HG:BoSS for $3.0M

0.236x of The Marvels for $1.6M

Avg: $3.5M

 

Growth was okay, but fell against comps. The date alignment is showing it's impacts.

 

The sole early afternoon showtime has been dropped. We'll also get full showtime sets this evening. This means we may get additional showtimes, but not guaranteed. I'm not sure if they're seeing enough to do so. I also suspect that the availability of other Valentine's Day options hurts this a bit. 

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-9

 

Previews

Total Sales: 122

New Sales: 29

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 7/4

Early Evening: 87/7

Late Evening: 28/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 68/7

IMAX: 40/6

VIP: 14/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.506x Aquaman 2 for $6.8M

0.632x HG:BoSS for $3.6M

0.324x of The Marvels for $2.1M

Avg: $4.2M

 

New showtimes are loaded, but there's one location that hasn't updated. There's at least one screen added in one location, but a lot of the expansion is added late or early shows as locations confirm their operating hours.

 

I'm not sure what's driving the surge, and whether people know to check for updated showtimes at this time, and bought accordingly. 

Regardless, comps have gone up.

[Porthos]

On 2/6/2024 at 1:22 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23073	24729	1656	6.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-24 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.73		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		2915	56.81%		17.41m
Thor 4	39.80		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	9.76%		11.54m
BP2	29.01		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	9.86%		8.12m
Ava 2	125.45		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	18.43%		21.33m
AM3	44.54		93	3718		0/235	28808/32526	11.43%		10475	15.81%		7.79m
GOTG3	59.25		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	15.40%		10.37m
Fast X	219.34		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		4122	40.17%		16.45m
Indy 5	198.09		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		4767	34.74%		14.26m
Oppy	212.31		20	780		0/53	7470/8250	9.45%		10750	15.40%		22.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      456/8153  [5.59% sold]
Matinee:    42/2762  [1.52% | 2.54% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          613/814  [75.31% sold] [+2 tickets]
Thr:    1043/23915  [4.36% sold] [+28 tickets]
PLF:      1409/9813  [14.36% | 85.08% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

First day of sales for both Thor 4 and Ava 2, so those comps will be dropping very quickly.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23032	24729	1697	6.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-23 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	111.94		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	14.79%		21.56m
JWD	95.98		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		2915	58.22%		17.28m
Thor 4	35.92		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	10.00%		10.42m
BP2	29.21		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	10.10%		8.18m
Ava 2	100.47		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		8986	18.88%		17.08m
AM3	44.14		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	16.20%		7.72m
GOTG3	58.34		114	2909		0/206	26760/29669	9.80%		10750	15.79%		10.21m
Fast X	222.12		9	764		0/182	26961/27725	2.76%		4122	41.17%		16.66m
Indy 5	200.35		11	847		0/124	18674/19521	4.34%		4767	35.60%		14.43m
Oppy	212.13		20	800		0/53	7450/8250	9.70%		10750	15.79%		22.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Matinee:      51/2762  [1.85% | 3.01% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:             613/814  [75.31% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:       1084/23915  [4.53% sold] [+41 tickets]
PLF:        1430/9813  [14.57% | 84.27% of all tickets sold]

 

===

Similarly to yesterday, first day of sales for TGM.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-9

 

Previews

Total Sales: 122

New Sales: 29

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 7/4

Early Evening: 87/7

Late Evening: 28/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 68/7

IMAX: 40/6

VIP: 14/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.506x Aquaman 2 for $6.8M

0.632x HG:BoSS for $3.6M

0.324x of The Marvels for $2.1M

Avg: $4.2M

 

New showtimes are loaded, but there's one location that hasn't updated. There's at least one screen added in one location, but a lot of the expansion is added late or early shows as locations confirm their operating hours.

 

I'm not sure what's driving the surge, and whether people know to check for updated showtimes at this time, and bought accordingly. 

Regardless, comps have gone up.

This Madame Web pre sales surge seems to be widespread in the US then. Yesterday it sold over 750 tickets in Florida as reported by @TheFlatLannister, @dallas also reported a good growth in the location he tracks, and in

AMC NY theaters its pre sales also increased well.

 

This provably has to do with an increase in the marketing, I have just seen on NBC that Dakota Johnson are going to promote Madame Web today in three different NBC shows.

Edited February 7 by leoh

[M37]

11 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

my asspull number would be $1.5M

I think that’s too low? Batman and TGM were (iirc) like $5M and $4M respectively, which did include all PLFs plus some extra shows (like AMC investor), while this is straight IMAX. I’ve been ballparking $2M, maybe a bit more 

 

Also in general, the more I look at sales numbers and those two films above plus Avatar 2, the more I think EA should not be included when comping for previews. It’s putting a big thumb on the scale IMO

 

I’m basically looking at Thur, ~8x IM, and adding EA in on top of it 

[vafrow]

One Love, D1/T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

Informal track

 

One Love sales after being up for about 12 hours, and with one location not having showtimes up yet is at 68 (compared to 122 for MW).

 

Color Purple was at 9 sales after its D2/T-5. It performed drastically different than it did in the US.

 

This seems to be resonating closer to what we're seeing in American markets. Which also means that we may not see the same growth levels, nor sales across the longer weekend. But, it's strong out of the gate, and I wouldn't be surprised if it catches MW in sales, but not guaranteed.

Edited February 7 by vafrow

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I think that’s too low? Batman and TGM were (iirc) like $5M and $4M respectively, which did include all PLFs plus some extra shows (like AMC investor), while this is straight IMAX. I’ve been ballparking $2M, maybe a bit more 

 

Also in general, the more I look at sales numbers and those two films above plus Avatar 2, the more I think EA should not be included when comping for previews. It’s putting a big thumb on the scale IMO

 

I’m basically looking at Thur, ~8x IM, and adding EA in on top of it 

So $80M OW seems pretty likely??

 

$10M Thur 8x IM + $2M EA 

[M37]

54 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So $80M OW seems pretty likely??

 

$10M Thur 8x IM + $2M EA 

I’m still more on ~$70M for now, but $80 is certainly in play