The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

For folks doing comps on Madame Web, how much are y'alls taking into account the increased matinee seats sold?  Figure it won't be as brutal as Discount Tuesday adjustments, but have to think some sort of downward adjustment needs to be made.  Unless the matinee showings are barren wastelands, of course.

yeah I’m seeing in NY AMC theaters the same behavior as @vafrow: the vast minority of sales for Madame Web is in matinee timings. Plus, something that surprised me is that in theaters with IMAX halls the vast majority of sales go to IMAX (theatres in NY with IMAX usually have one or two other halls in the same location for Madame Web)

Edited February 11 by leoh

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, TheTom said:

““But, you have to report what you have, not eliminate data that doesn't conform to others.”

 

But you have just said you are deliberately avoiding to use TCP as a comp for “obvious” reasons. So I quite don’t get it. Statistically speaking, we have always to fit our data to the reality.

 

Anyways, you can use whatever data you prefer, I’m just telling you that statistically this doesn’t make sense:

 

“0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M

2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)* *Using estimate based on comps”

 

While the first is a very reasonable comparison because you’re using a final national data to project a final national result, the second one is by no means reasonable, because you’re using a local partial data to predict a national final result. This creates distortions and is really misleading.

 

But you’re free to keep pushing that OL will have a better first day than Dune, I don’t think punishing this is very reasonable, but anyway we’ll find out in two weeks.

 

I'm not officially predicting anything. I'm reporting my data. I'm open about the limitations of my market.

 

As for TCP, an outlier of that magnitude can be tossed for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, capacity does not exist for a billion dollar day. 

 

But mainly, TCP results in Canada were so off from the US that it renders it useless as a comp unless I had any indication that something else was also similarly under indexing here. Or if I had separately reported Canadian numbers, which is a sporadic occurrence at best.

[TheTom]

21 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm not officially predicting anything. I'm reporting my data. I'm open about the limitations of my market.

 

As for TCP, an outlier of that magnitude can be tossed for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, capacity does not exist for a billion dollar day. 

 

But mainly, TCP results in Canada were so off from the US that it renders it useless as a comp unless I had any indication that something else was also similarly under indexing here. Or if I had separately reported Canadian numbers, which is a sporadic occurrence at best.

Those local cultural difference is not the what I’m talking about, specially because the US and Canada box offices are considered together as part of same big market.  I’m just telling you that statistically this doesn’t make sense:

 

“0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M

2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)* *Using estimate based on comps”

 

While the first is a very reasonable comparison because you’re using a final national data to project a final national result, the second one is by no means reasonable, because you’re using a local partial data to predict a national final result. This creates distortions and is really misleading.
 

So I’m just showing an issue with your report. Try to keep using only final national data as basis to your comps (like you did with FNAF or The Marvels). Using partial local data to predict a national final result is not a good way, This is why all the trackers only use final national data as basis to their comps.
 

I hope you don’t take it personally, I’m just advising you against a statistical mistake.  

[vafrow]

51 minutes ago, leoh said:

yeah I’m seeing in NY AMC theaters the same behavior as @vafrow: the vast minority of sales for Madame Web in in matinee timings. Plus, something that surprised me is that in theaters with IMAX halls the vast majority of sales go to IMAX (theatres in NY with IMAX usually have one or two other halls in the same location for Madame Web)

 

My five theatre sample has two IMAX theatres, and, as a format, it's only the third most popular for sales. Regular Dolby sales are higher, as well as the VIP theatres (smaller capacity, better seats, full bar service).

 

Sales for the latter have been interesting to track. Its price is a premium, only $3 off the IMAX pricing.

 

For male driven movies, IMAX does better. For female driven, the VIP has been stronger. For Valentine's Day, it makes sense that it's the preferred format.

[AJG]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

Being distributed through Fox. Weird?

[leoh]

25 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

My five theatre sample has two IMAX theatres, and, as a format, it's only the third most popular for sales. Regular Dolby sales are higher, as well as the VIP theatres (smaller capacity, better seats, full bar service).

 

Sales for the latter have been interesting to track. Its price is a premium, only $3 off the IMAX pricing.

 

For male driven movies, IMAX does better. For female driven, the VIP has been stronger. For Valentine's Day, it makes sense that it's the preferred format.

This makes sense, it’s same tendency that we’re seeing here in NY: people are willing to pay more to watch Madame Web in premium formats (this is somewhat surprising to me) when their local theater has premium options. The major difference I’d say is that in NY AMC theaters let the Dolby Cinema format to OL this week.

[lorddemaxus]

53 minutes ago, AJG said:

Being distributed through Fox. Weird?

I'm assuming its because the Fox logo will be at the start of the film (theres no shot they remove it)

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, TheTom said:

““But, you have to report what you have, not eliminate data that doesn't conform to others.”

 

But you have just said you are deliberately avoiding to use TCP as a comp for “obvious” reasons. So I quite don’t get it. Statistically speaking, we have always to fit our data to the reality.

 

Anyways, you can use whatever data you prefer, I’m just telling you that statistically this doesn’t make sense:

 

“0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M

2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)* *Using estimate based on comps”

 

While the first is a very reasonable comparison because you’re using a final national data to project a final national result, the second one is by no means reasonable, because you’re using a local partial data to predict a national final result. This creates distortions and is really misleading.

 

But you’re free to keep pushing that OL will have a better first day than Dune, I don’t think punishing this is very reasonable, but anyway we’ll find out in two weeks.

The Dune discourse is getting a bit ridiculous. Vafrow is not pushing an agenda, they're just giving the data and trying to give a picture of how things may go. Vafrow knows their market better than any of us. 

[leoh]

22 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm assuming its because the Fox logo will be at the start of the film (theres no shot they remove it)

That’s something I don’t quite understand. May have to with contract clause they have to keep Fox logo… idk

[leoh]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

The Dune discourse is getting a bit ridiculous. Vafrow is not pushing an agenda, they're just giving the data and trying to give a picture of how things may go. Vafrow knows their market better than any of us. 

Agreed. People are too much concerned about Dune, I mean it’ll be great, it’ll be good, but I don’t believe Dune has any chance to be the next 1 billion movie.

 

And probably @vafrow wasn’t making the comparison with MW like the basis to any projection, that guy took it very seriously, it’s was probably just a curiosity remark nothing else, just a fun mention… Dune fans should just calm down lol

Edited February 11 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/9/2024 at 6:44 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4403	104695	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

130

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1834

*57 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(1.600x) of Oppenheimer $16.80M 

(1.037x) of Indy 5 $7.47M 

(2.420x) of Wonka $8.47M 

(2.261x) of Aquaman 2 $10.18M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.73M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4495	104695	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

92

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1866

*32 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(1.598x) of Oppenheimer $16.77M 

(1.044x) of Indy 5 $7.51M 

(2.449x) of Wonka $8.57M 

(2.278x) of Aquaman 2 $10.25M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.78M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/9/2024 at 6:51 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	4252	93918	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

192

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1147

*101 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.147x) of Blue Beetle $3.68M 

(0.943x) of AquaMan 2 $4.24M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.96M

 

Still rising. Close to $4M now

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	4733	93918	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

481

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1272

*125 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.192x) of Blue Beetle $3.93M 

(1.006x) of AquaMan 2 $4.53M 

 

COMP AVG: $4.23M

 

Yeah, this is doing well? I was expecting it to be DOA, but it keeps rising *at least for OD* 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

That’s something I don’t quite understand. May have to with contract clause they have to keep Fox logo… idk

What's there not to understand? The logo is a part of the movie. 

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, TheTom said:

 

Those local cultural difference is not the what I’m talking about, specially because the US and Canada box offices are considered together as part of same big market.  I’m just telling you that statistically this doesn’t make sense:

 

“0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M

2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)* *Using estimate based on comps”

 

While the first is a very reasonable comparison because you’re using a final national data to project a final national result, the second one is by no means reasonable, because you’re using a local partial data to predict a national final result. This creates distortions and is really misleading.
 

So I’m just showing an issue with your report. Try to keep using only final national data as basis to your comps (like you did with FNAF or The Marvels). Using partial local data to predict a national final result is not a good way, This is why all the trackers only use final national data as basis to their comps.
 

I hope you don’t take it personally, I’m just advising you against a statistical mistake.  

 

No offence, but, you have no history here, no demonstrable experience tracking or anything of the sort. If advice or critique on my methods are needed, there's an active group here to provide that. You appear to be a recent poster that's getting very upset that a model isn't showing them the result that they don't like. It's not an uncommon occurrence. It happens fairly frequently it seems.

 

At this point, your dissatisfaction with the result is noted, but not really relevant. If you're not providing any actual data or analysis, there really isn't a need to keep posting here. There's other threads for that.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

What's there not to understand? The logo is a part of the movie. 

I mean the Fox Studios logo, Disney bought fox but kept Fox logo instead of rebranding to use only Disney. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, AJG said:

Being distributed through Fox. Weird?

Avatar was also re-released under Fox banner. Disney keep the banner in tact, they simply own it.

[leoh]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

I had no idea lol

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/7/2024 at 6:06 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	115	235	345	20603	1.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		232	147	67.25
MTC1:		189	116	54.78
Marcus:		66	55	19.13
Alamo:		30	22	8.7
Other chains:		60	42	17.39

 

Comps:

1x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.53 Million

1.15x Wonka: $4.04 Million

0.48x BoSS: $2.76 Million

1.81x Blue Beetle: $5.96 Million

 

Average: $4.32 Million

 

Been real busy in my personal life so wasn't able to do my usual mid-week update, so the "new seats" column is over 7 days. Very solid week all in all, shaping up for a decent Valentine's Day

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	134	204	549	23609	2.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		342	110	62.3
MTC1:		287	98	52.28
Marcus:		94	28	17.12
Alamo:		46	16	8.38
Other chains:		122	62	22.22

 

Comps:

1.28x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.76 Million

1.5x Wonka: $5.25 Million

0.52x BoSS: $3 Million

2.33x Blue Beetle: $7.68 Million

0.41x MI7 (TUE): $2.84 Million

 

Average: $4.91 Million

 

Really really good update, but it's a funky T-7 to T-4 update compared to other movies that had previews on Thursday, hence me adding the MI7 comp. Tomorrow should balance it out since people will be busy watching the Superbowl. Also, like @Porthos mentioned, slightly higher portion of matinee tickets (but not as much as you'd think, since it's not a holiday). Pretty positive update though, no way around it

[HummingLemon496]

So 5M Tuesday could mean 30M+ 5-day weekend right?

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/7/2024 at 6:10 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	86	532	862	12346	6.98

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		325	218	37.7
MTC1:		305	205	35.38
Marcus:		172	108	19.95
Alamo:		95	42	11.02
Other chains:		290	177	33.64

 

Comps:

0.37x The Color Purple: $5.75 Million

1.61x KoFM: $4.17 Million

4.87x The Creator (THU): $6.57 Million

 

Average: $5.5 Million

 

This feels like TCP 2.0, some crazy high pre-sale numbers out of nowhere. This is looking really good for Valentine's Day, and they just added a bunch of Dolby screens at MTC1, so I expect the PLF share to keep rising as well.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	98	637	1499	13467	11.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		559	234	37.29
MTC1:		548	243	36.56
Marcus:		282	110	18.81
Alamo:		168	73	11.21
Other chains:		501	211	33.42

 

Comps:

0.46x The Color Purple: $7.03 Million

3.69x Napoleon (TUE): $11.08 Million

5.28x The Creator: $8.45 Million

 

Average: $8.85 Million

 

This is the Color Purple 2.0, except the PLF percentage is a little higher. Swapped out KoFM for Napoleon, feels like a better comp; don't know about the Creator but leaving it there for now. High single digits sounds right.