The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[crazymoviekid]

10 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

In that case, I'd definitely consider trying to use a proper average of your comps. Sticking with just the lower amounts might be distorting.

 

Boys in the Boat only had 2500 theatres, so, if you're taking just a straight comp against that, it's probably underestimating OL. If that was playing in 1000 less theatres, it would probably be selling even more for example.

 

TCP was a weird one as well. It's a useful comp, but one that had a lot of unique factors, that it shouldn't carry an excessive weight to it.

TCP was at 1,358 tickets

BitB was at 304

 

They were both mini-blockbuster at their respected levels.

[JustWatching]

Shawn places his bets.

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-and-the-chosen-season-4-episodes-4-6-open-for-long-holiday-frame/

[vafrow]

29 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

Shawn places his bets.

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-and-the-chosen-season-4-episodes-4-6-open-for-long-holiday-frame/

 

Based on a 70-75% drop from Wednesday to Thursday, that maps out to opening day of ~$10M for OL, and ~$5M for MW.

 

It feels like OL is the one with more potential to beat those estimates, which is sad, because its it's a pretty poor outcome for MW. It's going to be only the second time in the superhero boom era that a major studio comic book film doesn't open at number one for the weekend that I can see. The other is Dark Phoenix, which was the final gasp of the X-Men franchise.

 

MW is performing ahead of others in my numbers, but still well off OL. I don't think anyone has numbers where there's a realistic chance of MW winning the three day.

[keysersoze123]

Marley will more than double MW today. Pace is way better than 2x and its already > 2x. if MW hits 5m, Marley will go for low teens. 

 

FYI just before noon PST Marley hit 173829. So its motoring on for sure. 

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

So how high Marley can go. I am now thinking its crossing 250K+ at MTC1 and ATP should take it above 3.5m. That would low double digits if its previews like Multi with a heavy MTC1 skew. But looking at rest of the reports and one time MTC2 data I got, its not skewing that bad. Plus wednesday full day ratios should go lower. I am now thinking 13m ish OD could happen with good walkups today. 

 

Ironically looking at how crazy final 2 days of Presales went, reminds me of another wednesday opener in Mario !!! if I dare to comp the above projections to Mario finish, Marley is looking at 15m OD. LOL. I think that is a huge LEAP. But hitting teen OD is not for sure. 

 

In this economy, a $10 all-in date to a movie with nice sexy music and a 13-45 male/female on your arm is golden.  This is about the biggest hit a TMobile code will probably get...well, except when they've had the deal for the huge blockbusters (like Spidey last year)...and it will help all 6 days, so we could be looking at a nice 6 day...

 

PS - Sony/Madame Web should have gone to TMobile and offered to be in on the deal for either movie...missed opportunity for them to share the wealth

Edited February 14 by TwoMisfits

[VanillaSkies]

Very early, but early verified audience scores for MW is 58% and for Marley is 100%.
 

Again, obviously early and can change, but it seems that these two films are not the same in the eyes of the audiences.

Hopefully that can carry Marley into the long weekend.

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

In this economy, a $10 all-in date to a movie with nice sexy music and a 13-45 male/female on your arm is golden.  This is about the biggest hit a TMobile code will probably get...well, except when they've had the deal for the huge blockbusters (like Spidey last year)...and it will help all 6 days, so we could be looking at a nice 6 day...

 

PS - Sony/Madame Web should have gone to TMobile and offered to be in on the deal for either movie...missed opportunity for them to share the wealth

that’s probably the reason then for despite to be selling more than 2x tickets it will still not be able to make more than 2x MW box office (according to that estimation).

 

5 dollars is a too cheap price for a blockbuster, although it’s proving to be really successful to OL. I’m curious to know how much money it’ll make today compared to the tickets sold

[leoh]

36 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Very early, but early verified audience scores for MW is 58% and for Marley is 100%.
 

Again, obviously early and can change, but it seems that these two films are not the same in the eyes of the audiences.

Hopefully that can carry Marley into the long weekend.

most of people today in theaters for OL are the singer’s fans, so don’t expect it to have many bad reviews too early lol

 

I think more balanced reviews to OL only during the weekend and next week when the number of causals will be way bigger than the singer’s fans

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Marley will more than double MW today. Pace is way better than 2x and its already > 2x. if MW hits 5m, Marley will go for low teens. 

 

FYI just before noon PST Marley hit 173829. So its motoring on for sure. 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-valentines-day-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-1235826028/

 

And Deadline is agree with you

 

12M for One Love

5-5,5M for MW

[vafrow]

Is it just me or is Deadlines language getting more and more similar to how we chat on here.

 

Projecting out six-days is a bit iffy at this point. Some believe Bob Marley is front-loaded, yet there’s a big argument to be made that this movie should not be comped to Color Purple.

 

I don't mind. We're doing this for funsies. But it is kind of funny.

[leoh]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Is it just me or is Deadlines language getting more and more similar to how we chat on here.

 

Projecting out six-days is a bit iffy at this point. Some believe Bob Marley is front-loaded, yet there’s a big argument to be made that this movie should not be comped to Color Purple.

 

I don't mind. We're doing this for funsies. But it is kind of funny.

I think there’s no better place than this forum on internet to discuss ideas and compare box office data. But deadline has direct contact with theater chains, they give them some data about sales. So it’d be understandable they comparing their data with other independent trackers projections no make their own final projection

Edited February 14 by leoh

[JustWatching]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

most of people today in theaters for OL are the singer’s fans, so don’t expect it to have many bad reviews too early lol

 

I think more balanced reviews to OL only during the weekend and next week when the number of causals will be way bigger than the singer’s fans

I actually think it’s more the other way around. The casuals are just going for the music. If anyone is going to get bent out of shape about this film, it will be the hardcore fans.

 

That said, yes, of course it’s not going to stay at 100. Already down to 97.

Edited February 14 by JustWatching

[PrinceRico]

They're definitely seems to be an audience and critics divide between one love. Wouldn't be shocked with an A Cinamascore. Probably be a A- though. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/12/2024 at 6:06 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Opening Day:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 4-6 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	28	36	246	2580	9.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		103	19	41.87
Marcus:		69	7	28.05
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		74	10	30.08

 

Comps:

0.41x The Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $585k

1.3x After Death: $520k

1.82x The Shift: $680k

 

Average: $595k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Opening Day:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 4-6 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	28	50	296	2580	11.47

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		125	22	42.23
Marcus:		78	9	26.35
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		93	19	31.42

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	40.95

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.42x The Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $600k (33%)

1.19x After Death: $475k (45%)

1.66x The Shift: $620k (23%, funky because this doesn't include EA but comp did)

3.7x Journey to Bethlehem: $925k (110%)

 

Average: $655k

 

"New" number includes the past two days. Let's not overcomplicate it and go with a final prediction of $600k, +/- 50.

 

Edited February 14 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/13/2024 at 10:15 AM, M37 said:

Chart incoming, refresh for updates...

 

  Hide contents

Probably not until tonight though

 

This was the biggest tease since Justice League Snyder's Cut teased 5 storylines that will never happen

 

(Jk jk you're probably busy, but I'm looking forward to this!)

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Is it just me or is Deadlines language getting more and more similar to how we chat on here.

 

Projecting out six-days is a bit iffy at this point. Some believe Bob Marley is front-loaded, yet there’s a big argument to be made that this movie should not be comped to Color Purple.

 

I don't mind. We're doing this for funsies. But it is kind of funny.

Personally, I don’t love the TCP comp, but there also isn’t a huge cache of huge OD on movie holiday analogs to choose from

Also, bonus points to whomever to can identify AD’s lurker BOT account 👋 

[leoh]

28 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

I actually think it’s more the other way around. The casuals are just going for the music. If anyone is going to get bent out of shape about this film, it will be the hardcore fans.

 

That said, yes, of course it’s not going to stay at 100. Already down to 97.

We know it’s factually not a good movie because it’s a too low critics score both on rotten tomatoes and metacritic. Therefore there’s enough flaws to be a bad movie. However, a huge part of its VDay audience is basically fans and they’ll obviously give high, not because fans are pretending the movies is good but because there’s real connection, it’s their idol their favo songs etc. Casuals won’t have this kind of connection and obviously will find out the flows that makes it a 39% rotten tomato movie.

 

In biopics fans are the first ones to rate movies on RT for obvious reason.

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Personally, I don’t love the TCP comp, but there also isn’t a huge cache of huge OD on movie holiday analogs to choose from

Also, bonus points to whomever to can identify AD’s lurker BOT account 👋 

I think the comparison is due to the fact OL weekend days pre sales are too low compared to Wednesday, showing a huge drop is expected for OL. Then the closest comparison is TCL.

[leoh]

13 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

This was the biggest tease since Justice League Snyder's Cut teased 5 storylines that will never happen

 

(Jk jk you're probably busy, but I'm looking forward to this!)

you projections has been on point for movies OD box office recently. And I have a felling you get it right again this time (or at least really close)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	4854	106182	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2004

*28 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(1.538x) of Oppenheimer $16.15M 

(1.074x) of Indy 5 $7.73M 

(2.486x) of Wonka $8.70M 

(2.249x) of Aquaman 2 $10.12M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.68M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	4996	106182	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2061

*57 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.526x) of Oppenheimer $16.02M 

(0.970x) of Flash $9.41M 

(2.456x) of Wonka $8.60M 

(2.252x) of Aquaman 2 $10.14M 

 

Comps AVG: $11.04M