The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/11/2024 at 12:56 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-14	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	142	1597	14835	10.77
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	41	680	1082	62.85
TOTALS:	80	183	2277	15917	14.31

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.47x Oppy: $15.45 Million

1.8x The Marvels: $11.86 Million

MI7: Missed

 

Comps (w/ EA):

2.1x Oppy: $22.04 Million

2.56x The Marvels: $16.9 Million

MI7: Missed

 

Comps (average EA and THU):

1.79x Oppy: $18.75 Million

2.18x The Marvels: $14.38 Million

MI7: Missed

 

I'll be adding Indy and Barbie comps in the next update, and I will likely stop doing the EA and EA-average comps unless folks really feel strongly otherwise. With only 4 screens in town, I feel like it's just muddying the waters a bit too much

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	78	241	1838	15299	12.01
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	55	735	1082	67.93
TOTALS:	82	296	2573	16381	15.71

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1641	204	89.28
MTC1:		998	110	54.3
Marcus:		192	17	10.45
Alamo:		273	23	14.85
Other chains:		375	91	20.4

*This chart only accounts for Thursday sales

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.39x Oppy: $14.6 Million

1.9x The Marvels: $12.52 Million

1.95x MI7 (w/ EA): $17.52 Million

2.37x Indy: $17.03 Million

0.86x Barbie (w/ EA): $19.17 Million

 

Average: $16.17 Million

 

Call it a Superbowl bump, a social media reactions bump, or a mixture of both, but this was my strongest update since the first week of sales. @Porthos you might just be right!

[iEnri]

Dune is varrying so much here. Some trackers seeing previews with 7.8M, others 9M, 11M, and even 14-16M

Edited February 16 by iEnri

[keysersoze123]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:26 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 24032/55706 483477.78 182 shows

Previews - 46204/515493 924712.24 2573 shows

Friday - 40445/794405 810151.19 4002 shows

Saturday - 40901/836536 786525.97 4218 shows

 

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 27054/55706 540153.90 182 shows +743

Previews(T-14) - 54809/516459 1085794.11 2579 shows +2353

Friday - 50240/795393 994937.86 4005 shows +2251

Saturday - 51194/837042 971496.80 4220 shows +2343

 

Plus number is from yesterday. Pace up around 60% from yesterday. Let us see how a full day of sales post reactions go tomorrow. 

 

Previews(without early shows) are up around 12% from Oppenheimer at similar point. I think it can hold the pace as well what Oppenheimer was doing as well. 

Edited February 16 by keysersoze123

[dallas]

 

It's raining green on the Warner Bros lot 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

Dune is varrying so much here. Some trackers seeing previews with 7.8M, others 9M, 11M, and even 14-16M

 

Main reason for the disparate comps is that pretty much all comps are fairly shitty troublesome right now and some folks are using different shitty troublesome comps.  Myself very much included.  

 

The main reason for this is most of the films which had a longer pre-sale window like Dune: Part 2 either were (probably) more frontloaded (various CBMs) or more backloaded (things like Oppenheimer and JWD).  Dune: Part 2 is in a weird spot where there is:

 

1] Obvious sequel frontloading

2] Long pre-sale window

3] Uncertain GA appeal [<--- this is probably the source of most of the disagreement FWIW]

4] Limited Early Access on a Sunday mucking things up even more than limited EA showings normally do.

 

This means films like, say, Jurassic World Dominion are suspect even though that had an even longer pre-sale window since the JW films are still the kings of the walkups.  Films which might be more accurate, like say John Wick 4 had a far shorter pre-sale window which means any and all comps against it won't really start to come into focus for another week or so.  If even then.

 

Plus the rather basic fact that some trackers just don't have many alternatives.  If all someone has are films from, say, the last six months and someone else has films from the last three months and still someone else has films from the last two years (*cough* ), you're gonna get different comps spat out even before regional variations come into play simply because of the choices available.

 

All of the above is more or less why I'm throwing so much spaghetti at the wall for my comps (including providing EA info for the folks who want to separate out EA and reg showings).  I don't have a good answer for what comps should be used, even at this stage.  So I'm basically throwing almost everything out there and letting people pick and choose what info they want to use.

 

====

 

FWIW, I do in fact think we're gonna get clarity Real Soon Now on at least which comps are gonna be more likely to be good to one degree or another.  But we're still in that weird period where... well, as you note, decent amount of uncertainty.

 

 

[leoh]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

UPDATE ON AMC NY THEATERS:

 

OL is dropping ~75% here, if it resembles nationwide sales, OL could end Thursday with less than 1/3 of its VDay box office.

 

Madame Web is dropping ~50%.

 

If this resemble what’s going on nationwide, both movies box office may end this Thursday surprisingly closer than we expected.

 

Here, some theaters added 30%+ shows to OL

 

 

 

 

Yeah it seems my projection based on NY sales was pretty close to what is going on nationwide…

 

Charlie has just confirmed that OL dropped ~73% from VDay box office, getting $3,7 million (for a 2nd day, this is one of the biggest drops ever from OP, isn’t it? If someone has the records please let me know).

 

Madame Web dropped ~60% this Thursday, getting $2,2 million.

 

If NY box office once again resembles nationwide this Friday, right now it seems both movies box office will be even closer this Friday.

Edited February 16 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, iEnri said:

Dune is varrying so much here. Some trackers seeing previews with 7.8M, others 9M, 11M, and even 14-16M

I dont about where the 7.8m is coming from but it could be from chains where presales are normally not great. Its impossible for Dune 2 Previews to go that low even without early shows. Early shows should add 1.5-2m. 

[keysersoze123]

Bob Marley MTC1

Thursday Final - 68211/445746 1013131.73 2841 shows

Friday - 40864/629237 630304.46 3926 shows

 

If ratio was similar to yesterday it should be 4m today but ratio will be tad higher as its a normal weekday. Presales for tomorrow makes me think it will do around 7m ish friday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

Thursday Final - 68211/445746 1013131.73 2841 shows

Friday - 40864/629237 630304.46 3926 shows

 

If ratio was similar to yesterday it should be 4m today but ratio will be tad higher as its a normal weekday. Presales for tomorrow makes me think it will do around 7m ish friday. 

be around 3.9 today.

[keysersoze123]

Madame Web MTC1

Thursday Final - 43332/504113 683008.14 2566 shows

Friday - 27137/713969 442965.77 3653 shows

 

Significantly worse walkups than Marley. Previews for tomorrow are up less than 50% but should have better walkups. 

 

@charlie Jatinder Can Web also be higher today like around 2.4m ish. I am thinking tad under 4m Friday while Marley should hit 7.5-8m friday. 

[Porthos]

On 2/15/2024 at 1:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22589	24739	2150	8.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

56

 

T-15 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	395.95		52	543		0/74	11106/11649	4.66%		2915	73.76%		20.19m
Batman	54.80		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	18.29%		13.38m
TGM	56.64		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	18.74%		10.91m
JWD	88.66		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		2915	73.76%		15.96m
Thor 4	33.84		150	6354		0/228	25246/31600	20.11%		16962	12.68%		9.81m
BP2	31.48		126	6830		2/294	30194/37024	18.45%		16800	12.80%		8.81m
Ava 2	79.78		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	23.93%		13.56m
Wick 4	197.79		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	39.46%		17.60m
AM3	46.57		153	4617		0/238	28177/32794	14.08%		10475	20.53%		8.15m
GOTG3	60.61		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	20.00%		10.61m
Fast X	226.79		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	52.16%		17.01m
Indy 5	183.92		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		4767	45.10%		13.24m
Oppy	198.34		67	1084		0/53	7164/8248	13.14%		10750	20.00%		20.83m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      589/8164  [7.21% sold]
Matinee:    78/2765  [2.82% | 3.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          647/814  [79.48% sold] [-1 tickets]
Thr:    1503/23925  [6.28% sold] [+57 tickets]
PLF:      1775/9825  [18.07% | 82.56% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Random spike was indeed random.
 

Next, the social media lift (2pm local time so should see a decent amount of it tomorrow, though perhaps not the full effect — if there is one)

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22519	24734	2215	8.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-14 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	54.62		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	19.30%		10.52m
JWD	85.36		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		2915	75.99%		15.36m
Ava 2	79.14		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	24.65%		13.45m
Wick 4	192.44		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	40.66%		17.13m
TLM	145.06		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	33.76%		14.94m
Indy 5	176.07		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	46.47%		12.68m
Batman	54.20		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	18.84%		13.23m
Thor 4	33.82		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	13.06%		9.81m
BP2	31.37		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	13.18%		8.78m
AM3	46.47		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	21.15%		8.13m
GOTG3	61.63		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	20.60%		10.79m
Dune	361.93		69	612		0/75	11219/11831	5.17%		2915	75.99%		18.46m
Fast X	211.56		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	53.74%		15.87m
Oppy	195.67		48	1132		0/55	7524/8656	13.08%		10750	20.60%		20.55m
Bats Tue EA T-10	98.19		6	663		0/3	152/815	81.35%		743	87.08%		1.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:     608/8164  [7.45% sold]
Matinee:    82/2765  [2.97% | 3.70% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:           651/814  [79.98% sold] [+4 tickets]
Thr:    1564/23920  [6.54% sold] [+61 tickets]
PLF:       1819/9825  [18.51% | 82.12% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was past time to reorganize the charts a bit. Put them in "GA friendly"/"CBM"/"Wildly Inappropriate — Use For Final Percentages/Pace Only" groupings.  More than a bit arbitrary on some of them, I realize, but I think it's better than it was.  Also added TLM since that didn't have as strong a finish as many GA friendly films, even though it's still out-of-whack timing wise. The "GA friendly" tier still suffers under timing concerns for most of them, but still grouping now rather than later.

 

Went ahead and also took the time to make a separate IMAX ONLY comp against the one film I have a literal one-for-one comp with (the Tue showings of The Batman), even though the ATP will probably be off.  Interestingly enough, it's nearly at the final total of that Tue Night EA with only a difference of 92 tickets between the two.  Suggests to me that, locally at least, there probably won't be much of a difference between Sun Night Exclusive IMAX and Tue Night Exclusive IMAX.  And even if there is, ATP hikes might just cover that. How indicative this is of the rest of the country I don't know. What I do know is that D2 won't have the benefit of the Wed PLF showtimes, which was also estimated at 2m or so.  So keep that in mind.

 

As for the social media embargo lift?  I'll be honest; wanted to see more of a bump.  Now the mid-day drop does make it difficult to do a full compare/contrast against things that had a full day (or more) of social media discussion.  But if a storm is coming (and for the record I still think it is), it hasn't quite arrived in Sacramento yet.

Edited February 17 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

casually scans social media embargo lift for Dune: Part Two*

Porthos is false prophet 

[Porthos]

Couple of other things.

 

I reorganized my charts at the relative last moment tonight (about 30-45 minutes before pull time) and spent most of that time making them look nice(r).  I've already decided for various reasons to flip the order of the CBM/GA-friendly sections (though still in chronological order in those sections) so it'll go CBM---> More GA Friendly--->Use for Percentage/Pace ONLY.

 

Secondly, I do have a couple of other CBM comps that I haven't added.  Across the Spider-Verse currently sits at 22.06m thanks to the GA-friendly buying pattern for AtSV and the longer pre-sale window for D2.  I think it is fairly obvious why I ain't adding that and won't for a good long while (if ever.).

 

I also have a comp for The Flash, but that also is pretty off at 18.49m. Timing is the largest reason (24 days of pre-sales for The Flash versus 36 for Dune: Part Two) but the larger fan rush for D2 is also a factor here.  I *might* be tempted to add that one in a few days as the overall totals catch up, but... I dunno. Probably not.  Kinda like the groupings I have at the moment, albeit with the ordering changed.

 

If anyone has some movie suggestions to add, I'm game though I may or may not have them or may have already rejected them for the moment for being too inappropriate.

[charlie Jatinder]

Dune MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Thursday - 2223/41362 (141 showings)

 

Comps

1.26x Oppy - $13M

0.51x Avatar 2 - $9M

[charlie Jatinder]

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-21 Days

Previews - 87/31157 (144 showings)

 

Comps

1.6x Elemental - $3.8M

1.75x Trolls 3 - $2.3M

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Thursday - 2223/41362 (141 showings)

 

Comps

1.26x Oppy - $13M

0.51x Avatar 2 - $9M

This is thu only, no EA, right?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

This is thu only, no EA, right?

 

I believe MiniTC2 has one IMAX theater (which as I check does in fact have the EA showing).  Whether or not Jat is including that one showtime, I couldn't say.  But with only one showtime in the chain, and only saying "Thursday" in his post, he's likely punting it as being too small to matter.

Edited February 16 by Porthos

[M37]

On 2/14/2024 at 6:31 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

This was the biggest tease since Justice League Snyder's Cut teased 5 storylines that will never happen

 

(Jk jk you're probably busy, but I'm looking forward to this!)

Yeah, "busy", we'll go with that ...

 

Dune Part 2 Thursday Preview Comps

 

As noted in the title, these are comps for Thursday only (no EA) except for the select few noted. Think the EA total is pretty much locked in at ~$2M, and including those sales skews the ratio vs comps.

 

Current average is floating around $12M, though as @Porthos discussed above, there aren't a lot of great comps available from the data set of our current trackers. My belief continues to be that this will trek closer to CBM level, in the TGM/Avatar 2/Batman range of final week growth, so many comps - including Oppy - will come down from current value. With that said, over $10M for just Thursday ($12M in total) still a reasonable target, and weekend sales suggest IM should be solid (~8x Thur only), so $80M+ OW is certainly in play

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-15 Thursday previews and T-11 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 388

New Sales: 15

Growth: 4.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 21.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 307/9

Late Evening: 76/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 88/7

IMAX: 209/4

VIP: 83/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.179 of Marvels for $7.8M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 422

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 5

Growth: 1.2%

 

Nothing special in terms of growth. However, we'll see how social reactions impact things tomorrow.

 

Some new comps are technically available (HG:BoSS, MW), but I'm going to wait at least 48 hours on those until they get past their ramp up, as it distorts quite a bit.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-14 Thursday previews and T-10 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 417

New Sales: 29

Growth: 7.5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 23.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 330/9

Late Evening: 81/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 93/7

IMAX: 223/4

VIP: 93/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.226 of Marvels for $8.1M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 435

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 3.1%

 

Growth is almost double of the last few days, so I think the social reactions had an impact. It may take a few days for it to have full impact. Although, the full reviews are likely to be the bigger trigger.