The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Fall Guy -- $3.15 M Previews

Tarot -- $715k Previews

 Per Variety

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-fall-guy-previews-1235991209/

[Shawn Robbins]

Also, 3.15 includes 800k EA

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Kingdom early reviews looking fantastic. Hopefully this precludes a spike in ticket sales. Also, saw the Fall Guy and loved it. Hopefully WOM does something.

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Unfitclock said:

@keysersoze123 where’s the update for the fall guy?

Bad news is its not normally working as of yesterday. So no update. There is a work around but its not optimal. 

[abracadabra1998]

 

15 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-1 hour Thinking about these, my post yesterday, and the pace, I will go with a final prediction of: $2.3 Million Thursday (+/- 0.2), ~$750-850k EA). So maybe a reported total number around $3.1 Million

Ok I’ll flex this one just a little bit  

[TheFlatLannister]

16 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I don't have as many T-1 hour comps so this looks worse than it actually was, all the comps would have gone up if I had them in my previous post. Thinking about these, my post yesterday, and the pace, I will go with a final prediction of: $2.3 Million Thursday (+/- 0.2), ~$750-850k EA). So maybe a reported total number around $3.1 Million

15 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Final number for Fall Guy - Miami: (3311 tickets sold)

 

$2.3M (A bit of a collapse in the last few hours)

 

with EA I think it gets reported as $3.1M 

[el sid]

On 5/2/2024 at 9:43 PM, el sid said:

Tarot, counted today for today, had 184 sold tickets.

Up 61.5% since yesterday. A nice last-minute improvement. I saw that in other reports it looks better too.

[...]

 

Average: 625k. So it improved by ca. 100k since yesterday and I think that positive trend will continue till tomorrow so I say 700k+ from previews and with good walks-ups high single digits could still happen. 

With these reviews, also from moviegoers, I'm not that confident anymore that it can reach high single digits, but my preview guess was not too bad 😎.

[AniNate]

Weekend presales (Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls and XD)

 

THE FALL GUY
Friday evening - 86
Saturday - 57

 

THE PHANTOM MENACE
Friday evening - 78
Saturday - 129

 

I dunno how other theaters are doing but does seem like a good chance Star Wars is #1 this weekend

[el sid]

By the way, I almost forgot to report because it's not too exciting, Tarot had today counted for today 264 sold tickets tickets (in 7 theaters).

 

So overall I agree with other reports here that the true Friday number could be around 2M. The comparison number (I took M3gan and some way older ones because I doubt that its walks-ups are as strong as those of Saw X) was 1.9M.

[Maaatt]

25 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Weekend presales (Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls and XD)

 

THE FALL GUY
Friday evening - 86
Saturday - 57

 

THE PHANTOM MENACE
Friday evening - 78
Saturday - 129

 

I dunno how other theaters are doing but does seem like a good chance Star Wars is #1 this weekend

i don’t think so.. The Fall Guy is in over 4,000 theaters while TPM is in 2,700. TPM is exactly the kind of movie thats gonna be very pre-sale heavy and very very light on walk-ups, whereas The Fall Guy would seem to be a type of movie that does much better with walk-ups (its not a movie with diehard fanboys, is not a sequel/franchise, its not a reissue, etc.) Deadline this afternoon has Fall Guy doing more business from Friday/previews then TPM for the entire weekend. 

[Speedorito]

Deadline predicting 40-50M opening for Furiosa and 35M for Garfield (both 4-day Memorial Day Weekend), emphasizing IMAX/PLFs for Furiosa.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/05/furiosa-garfield-box-office-1235904173/

[emoviefan]

Really think KOTPA has a chance to surprise next weekend. If the reviews are strong and back up the early reactions. The tracking and  metrics on The Qurom have been strong and if even if the Presales for Previews do not look like a big breakout the Caesar trilogy all had strong Walkup and IM's from previews if I recall.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/2/2024 at 5:48 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
525	2300	106598	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

90

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

COMPS

T-7

(0.350x) of Dune 2 $3.26M

(0.622x) of Ghostbusters $2.92M

(0.602x) of Godzilla and Kong $6.02M

Comps average: $4.06M

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
525	2676	106598	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

376

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(0.385x) of Dune 2 $3.58M

(0.680x) of Ghostbusters $3.20M

(0.629x) of Godzilla and Kong $6.29M

Comps average: $4.36M

 

Starting to accelerate. Very good growth 

[emoviefan]

Would like a theatrical marketplace where both the Fall Guy and Apes do well but that ain't the  world we live in so  will have to just take one of them I guess/hope.

[Squire]

3 hours ago, Speedorito said:

Deadline predicting 40-50M opening for Furiosa and 35M for Garfield (both 4-day Memorial Day Weekend), emphasizing IMAX/PLFs for Furiosa.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/05/furiosa-garfield-box-office-1235904173/

Maybe this is controversial, but I don’t think Furiosa is gonna open that high. I’m thinking more like $35-40M. 
 

I can’t remember the source, but it was reported screenings had a divisive audience reaction because the movie isn’t paced or structured like Fury Road. Miller has basically confirmed the comparison with Fury Road in interviews. Plus, it seems the trailers haven’t worked for a good chunk of people. 
 

My prediction is the movie becomes a Dial of Destiny situation where mixed reception out of Cannes leads to poor pre-sales and fan excitement for the movie. 

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/3/2024 at 1:10 AM, crazymoviekid said:

The Fall Guy:

 

Final Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $1.66M

Argylle: $1.32M

The Beekeeper: $1.11M

Gran Turismo: $.73M

Bullet Train: $1.28M

 

The walk-ups were NOT as strong as one would expect. Shifting to $1.25M-$1.5M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 19 Tickets

Theater 2: 50 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $6.07M

Argylle: $5.60M

The Beekeeper: $5.38M

Gran Turismo: $4.62M

Bullet Train: $13.54M

 

Unless it pulls a Bullet Train (which shot up Friday), this is looking to be around $5.5M-$6M

Final Friday Comps:: 

 

Theater 1: 49 Tickets

Theater 2: 93 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $7.56M

Argylle: $4.22M

The Beekeeper: $4.63M

Gran Turismo: $5.62M

Bullet Train: $6.97M

 

Not the best final. Hovering around $6.5M-$7.5M. 

 

3.15+7+10+6.5=26.65

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/3/2024 at 1:12 AM, crazymoviekid said:

Tarot:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 13 Tickets

Theater 2: 8 Tickets

 

Abigail: $1.40M

Imaginary: $.85M

Night Swim: $1.27M

Thanksgiving: $.84M

Firestarter: $.56M

 

We're back baby! Dare I say this gets to $1M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets
Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Abigail: $5.52M
Imaginary: $2.76M
Night Swim: $4.00M
Thanksgiving: $2.69M
Firestarter: $2.36M

 

Better!!  Looking around $2.5M.

Final Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets
Theater 2: 30 Tickets

 

Abigail: $2.26M
Imaginary: $1.80M
Night Swim: $1.90M
Thanksgiving: $1.10M
Firestarter: $2.05M

 

Dropped a bit from the encouraging Thursday. Closer to $2M. 

 

$.7+$2+$2.75+$1.75=$7.2M

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-6	Jax	5	48	12	111	8,321	1.33%
		Phx	7	45	15	120	8,127	1.48%
		Ral	8	43	13	109	6,314	1.73%
	Total		20	136	40	340	22,762	1.49%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	9	6	115	1,802	6.38%
		Phx	1	2	14	86	618	13.92%
		Ral	2	2	1	57	412	13.83%
	Total		8	13	21	258	2,832	9.11%

 

T-6 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.4x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .499x (4.39m)

 - F9 - .574x (4.32m)

 - Dune - missed

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .655x (3.89m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .458x (2.81m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .68x (6.13m)

 - Uncharted - 1.126x (4.27m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .487x (4.2m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.77m

 

T-5 (EA) adjusted comps

 - Top Gun EA - .192x (903k)

 - Ungentlemanly EA - .989x (700k)

 - M:I 7 EA - .557x (670k)

 - Transformers EA - .54x (955k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-5	Jax	5	48	18	129	8,321	1.55%
		Phx	7	45	29	149	8,127	1.83%
		Ral	8	43	28	137	6,314	2.17%
	Total		20	136	75	415	22,762	1.82%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	9	9	124	1,802	6.88%
		Phx	1	2	17	103	618	16.67%
		Ral	2	2	2	59	412	14.32%
	Total		8	13	28	286	2,832	10.10%

 

T-5 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.6x (8.18m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .526x (4.63m)

 - F9 - .615x (4.63m)

 - Dune - missed

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .682x (4.05m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .71x (6.4m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Transformers (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.76m

 

T-4 (EA) adjusted comps

 - Top Gun EA - .199x (937k)

 - Ungentlemanly EA - 1.051x (744k)

 - Fall Guy EA - 2.673x (2.14m)

 - M:I 7 EA - .578x (693k)

 - Transformers EA - missed

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
The Strangers	T-13	Jax	5	11	7	7	1,110	0.63%
		Phx	5	11	3	3	1,388	0.22%
		Ral	6	11	14	14	1,222	1.15%
	Total		16	33	24	24	3,720	0.65%

 

Not too bad first day.  I don't have many horror first day sales for comps, but here's what I found

 

Day 1 comps

 - Halloween Ends (T-15) - .145x (655k)

 - Exorcist 6 (T-30) - 1.6x (3.74m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
The Strangers	T-12	Jax	5	11	-1	6	1,110	0.54%
		Phx	5	11	5	8	1,388	0.58%
		Ral	6	11	0	14	1,222	1.15%
	Total		16	33	4	28	3,720	0.75%

 

Day 2 comps

 - Exorcist 6 - .903x (2.11m)

 - Insidious 5 - .583x (2.92m)

 - Scream VI - .129x (647k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Saturday

Fall Guy - 376/16,740

 - Bullet Train - .712x (6.9m)

 

Tarot - 89/7,521

 - Don't Worry - .255x (1.47m)

 - Nope - .11x (1.53m)

 

Phantom Menace - 718/5,040

 - Dragon Ball - .652x (3.79m)

 - Avatar 2 - .107x (4.76m)

 - Oppenheimer - .178x (4.68m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Saturday

Fall Guy - 690/16,740

 - Bullet Train - .685x (6.63m)

 - Ungentlemanly - 2.262x (7.05m)

 - Civil War - .773x (6.77m)

 

Using 7.5m Fri gives me 9.6m Saturday

 

Tarot - 167/7,521

 - Don't Worry - .277x (1.6m)

 - Nope - .091x (1.26m)

 - Abigail - .726x (2.74m)

 

Using 2m Fri puts me at 2.4m Saturday

 

Phantom Menace - 913/5,040

 - Dragon Ball - .575x (3.34m)

 - Avatar 2 - .097x (4.32m)

 - Oppenheimer - .177x (4.64m)

 

Using 2.7m Fri I'm getting right at 4m Sat