The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Fall guy is not having bad walkups so far. Currently comp'ng at $2.45M

unfortunately not much growth as of 8 pm EST. Still lingering around $2.4M-$2.5M

 

Doesn't look like there will be a huge breakout via walkups from my end. 

[Boxofficerules]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

unfortunately not much growth as of 8 pm EST. Still lingering around $2.4M-$2.5M

 

Doesn't look like there will be a huge breakout via walkups from my end. 

Are people seeing Tarot instead?

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-1]

1047/18907 (5.54% sold) [+400 tickets] [EA: 395/2921 | Thr: 652/15523] [+219 | +181] 128 showings.

 

0.30507x   RotB at T-1     [2.68m]
0.53364x  BOSS at T-1    [3.07m]

0.82701x   Wonka at T-1  [2.89m]
0.62545x  Aqua 2 at T-1  [2.81m]
0.69200x GBFE at T-1      [3.25m]

 

====

 

It'd be overselling it to post the Ramsey "Finally some good fucking food" gif, but... Trending in the right direction.  Finally.

 

Now it has to be said, EA put thumb on the scale.  On the other hand, EA was kinda moribund before today, so that there were very nice walkups for it is a decent omen for tomorrow/today.  Also, RotB had an identical EA on its T-1, and this grew about .4m against the comp.

 

Not saying 3m is in the cards.  But it might be in the conversation.  Maybe.  Likely better than the 2.5m it was looking like for a while at least.

 

(still, one market; one day; sample size, yadda yadda)

 

NB:  Next update will be at Final (around 5pm Pacific) as I don't make mid-day updates for Q&Ds.

 

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [4:40pm - 5:10pm]

1510/18907 (7.99% sold) [+463 tickets] [EA: 395/2921 | Thr: 1115/15523] [+0 | +463] 128 showings.

 

0.30364x RotB at T-0         [2.67m]
0.55905x BOSS at T-0        [3.21m]
0.76456x Wonka at T-0      [2.68m]
0.57436x Aqua 2 at T-0      [2.58m]
0.68730x GBFE at T-0        [3.23m]

 

Eh.  "They are who we thought they were", as Dennis Green once said.  No real movement on any comps.  As such, let's go with 2.9m +/- .4m.   Universal will probably round it up to 3m, but I'm not entirely sure the data really supports that.

 

Not much else to say, IMO.   Now it's a matter of WOM and legs, I suppose.

 

Edited May 3 by Porthos

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [4:40pm - 5:10pm]

1510/18907 (7.99% sold) [+463 tickets] [EA: 395/2921 | Thr: 1115/15523] [+0 | +463] 128 showings.

 

0.30364x RotB at T-0         [2.67m]
0.55905x BOSS at T-0        [3.21m]
0.76456x Wonka at T-0      [2.68m]
0.57436x Aqua 2 at T-0      [2.58m]
0.68730x GBFE at T-0        [3.23m]

 

Eh.  "They are who we thought they were", as Dennis Green once said.  No real movement on any comps.  As such, let's go with 2.9m +/- .4m.   Universal will probably round it up to 3m, but I'm not entirely sure the data really supports that.

 

Not much else to say, IMO.   Now it's a matter of WOM and legs, I suppose.

 

 

Also long time readers of my post might note that this took an insane length of time for so few showings.  Roughly twice or twice-and-a-half long as it "should" have had, thanks to Fandango throwing up "Not Found" after "Not Found" after "Not found" error on me in what I have to presume is an anti-flood control measure.

 

It's been a loooooong time since Fandango has been this crabby for me and if I can't figure out a way to regularly bypass the flood control (usually I can get by it by making sure my requests aren't quite so rapid fire so I'll see if I can bypass triggering in the first place as it seems once it has flipped, Fandango gets Xtra Froggy on me) I'm either gonna have to severely cut back on my reporting (likely dropping Q&Ds altogether) or figure out how to get MTC3's corp site to "play nice" with tracking.  MTC2 I can deal with, if have to grumble with its... eccentricities.  My Local MiniMTC keeps changing its site, but I should be able to make that one "play nice".  But, as always, MTC3 is a GIGANTIC PITA to deal with and I'd just as soon have a root canal than have to check it for 100+ showtimes every night.

 

Coz, gonna tell ya all, I ain't looking forward to the above sort of shit I just went through on a 250+ showtime track at T-0. 

Edited May 3 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Also long time readers of my post might note that this took an insane length of time for so few showings.  Roughly twice or twice-and-a-half long as it "should" have had, thanks to Fandango throwing up "Not Found" after "Not Found" after "Not found" error on me in what I have to presume is an anti-flood control measure.

 

It's been a loooooong time since Fandango has been this crabby for me and if I can't figure out a way to regularly bypass the flood control (usually I can get by it by making sure my requests aren't quite so rapid fire so I'll see if I can bypass triggering in the first place as it seems once it has flipped, Fandango gets Xtra Froggy on me) I'm either gonna have to severely cut back on my reporting (likely dropping Q&Ds altogether) or figure out how to get MTC3's corp site to "play nice" with tracking.  MTC2 I can deal with, if have to grumble with its... eccentricities.  My Local MiniMTC keeps changing its site, but I should be able to make that one "play nice".  But, as always, MTC3 is a GIGANTIC PITA to deal with and I'd just as soon have a root canal than have to check it for 100+ showtimes every night.

 

Coz, gonna tell ya all, I ain't looking forward to the above sort of shit I just went through on a 250+ showtime track at T-0. 

Fandango has been so damn annoying lately it’s real frustrating

[DAJK]

I’ll admit walkups are doing pretty well tonight for Fall Guy. Not enough to turn it into a huge breakout, but definitely far from the doom and gloom of yesterday.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Fandango has been so damn annoying lately it’s real frustrating

 

They got a little like this about a year and a half, two years ago (don't remember the exact time frame) and I found if I timed my manual checking to about 10-12 seconds between checks, I could evade the flood control, but once it WAS triggered, I was in for a bumpy night.

 

This time I'm not as certain about the initial timing flag.  Could be x-amount in time-frame, like say "20 checks in 15 minutes", which would mean no amount of pausing would really be sufficient.  Maybe.  Might have to really play around with timing and experiment on the timing for manual checking. 

 

I mean, I theoretically could take 20/25 second breaks which as I understand it is the region of pausing that some of the autoscrapers use.  And that's "fine" for smaller tracks.  But waiting that long between checks gets real problematic real fast on the 250-350 showtime tracks, especially on T-0.

 

Could just be a minor thing where Fandango gets... as I put it "tetchy" for a short to medium term period before lossening the reigns a bit.  On the other hand, this could be a more long term thing, and if it is, I am very likely to get a lot more picky about my tracks.

[jeffthehat]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

They got a little like this about a year and a half, two years ago (don't remember the exact time frame) and I found if I timed my manual checking to about 10-12 seconds between checks, I could evade the flood control, but once it WAS triggered, I was in for a bumpy night.

 

This time I'm not as certain about the initial timing flag.  Could be x-amount in time-frame, like say "20 checks in 15 minutes", which would mean no amount of pausing would really be sufficient.  Maybe.  Might have to really play around with timing and experiment on the timing for manual checking. 

 

I mean, I theoretically could take 20/25 second breaks which as I understand it is the region of pausing that some of the autoscrapers use.  And that's "fine" for smaller tracks.  But waiting that long between checks gets real problematic real fast on the 250-350 showtime tracks, especially on T-0.

 

Could just be a minor thing where Fandango gets... as I put it "tetchy" for a short to medium term period before lossening the reigns a bit.  On the other hand, this could be a more long term thing, and if it is, I am very likely to get a lot more picky about my tracks.

1-2 minute request intervals get around the "not found" error for me but that obviously doesn't cut it on T-0. For GxK NE T-0 I split the shows in half and used two laptops lol. Maybe more machines/vpns could be a workaround. I've never used a rasberry pi but have been considering trying one out for this 

[katnisscinnaplex]

37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Also long time readers of my post might note that this took an insane length of time for so few showings.  Roughly twice or twice-and-a-half long as it "should" have had, thanks to Fandango throwing up "Not Found" after "Not Found" after "Not found" error on me in what I have to presume is an anti-flood control measure.

 

It's been a loooooong time since Fandango has been this crabby for me and if I can't figure out a way to regularly bypass the flood control (usually I can get by it by making sure my requests aren't quite so rapid fire so I'll see if I can bypass triggering in the first place as it seems once it has flipped, Fandango gets Xtra Froggy on me) I'm either gonna have to severely cut back on my reporting (likely dropping Q&Ds altogether) or figure out how to get MTC3's corp site to "play nice" with tracking.  MTC2 I can deal with, if have to grumble with its... eccentricities.  My Local MiniMTC keeps changing its site, but I should be able to make that one "play nice".  But, as always, MTC3 is a GIGANTIC PITA to deal with and I'd just as soon have a root canal than have to check it for 100+ showtimes every night.

 

Coz, gonna tell ya all, I ain't looking forward to the above sort of shit I just went through on a 250+ showtime track at T-0. 

 

27 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Fandango has been so damn annoying lately it’s real frustrating

I highly recommend using the Fandango app once you've set your sheet up.  I only use the site for getting the seat counts of new shows now and for shows with a ton of sales. So much easier to scroll through seating charts that way.

 

I've also noticed that if you open a show in a new tab - don't go to the new tab until the seating chart loads.  That's worked every time I start hitting the errors.

 

Hope this helps!

[abracadabra1998]

7 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I highly recommend using the Fandango app once you've set your sheet up.  I only use the site for getting the seat counts of new shows now and for shows with a ton of sales. So much easier to scroll through seating charts that way.

 

I've also noticed that if you open a show in a new tab - don't go to the new tab until the seating chart loads.  That's worked every time I start hitting the errors.

 

Hope this helps!

With bigger releases, I end up using the “inspect element” quite a bit and searching for keywords like “unavailable”, are you able to do that with the app at all?

 

Regardless, really helpful advice, thank you  

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Are people seeing Tarot instead?

probably just staying home 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

With bigger releases, I end up using the “inspect element” quite a bit and searching for keywords like “unavailable”, are you able to do that with the app at all?

 

Regardless, really helpful advice, thank you  

I do that in my initial set up. So I have a row for each show that has theater, time, total seats, unavailable seats, and then columns for each day.  Then on the app I just count everything greyed out and subtract out the unavailable.  I've been doing it long enough that I can spot them in most of the auditoriums 😅

[TheFlatLannister]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Also long time readers of my post might note that this took an insane length of time for so few showings.  Roughly twice or twice-and-a-half long as it "should" have had, thanks to Fandango throwing up "Not Found" after "Not Found" after "Not found" error on me in what I have to presume is an anti-flood control measure.

 

It's been a loooooong time since Fandango has been this crabby for me and if I can't figure out a way to regularly bypass the flood control (usually I can get by it by making sure my requests aren't quite so rapid fire so I'll see if I can bypass triggering in the first place as it seems once it has flipped, Fandango gets Xtra Froggy on me) I'm either gonna have to severely cut back on my reporting (likely dropping Q&Ds altogether) or figure out how to get MTC3's corp site to "play nice" with tracking.  MTC2 I can deal with, if have to grumble with its... eccentricities.  My Local MiniMTC keeps changing its site, but I should be able to make that one "play nice".  But, as always, MTC3 is a GIGANTIC PITA to deal with and I'd just as soon have a root canal than have to check it for 100+ showtimes every night.

 

Coz, gonna tell ya all, I ain't looking forward to the above sort of shit I just went through on a 250+ showtime track at T-0. 

Yep, I have noticed this as well. Had to change my entire scraping system recently to bypass this and it's hit or miss. Keep getting that annoying error popup on fandango ever so often 

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	99	154	516	16881	3.06
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	131	500	5129	9.75
TOTALS:	122	285	1016	22010	4.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		360	91	69.77
MTC1:		300	52	58.14
Alamo:		38	9	7.36
Other chains:		178	93	34.5

 

Thursday Comps:

1.27x Monkey Man: $1.78 Million

0.62x Civil War: $1.8 Million

0.43x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $2 Million (17 theaters)

0.45x Madame Web (OD):  $2.72 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x Wonka: $2.53 Million (17 theaters)

0.62x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.8 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.27 Million

 

EA T-1 Hour Comps:

1.45x Challengers: $795k

0.45x Dune Part 2: $895k

0.85x Mean Girls: $550k

0.51x MI7: $1.03 Million

 

Average: $815k

 

Pretty good day, for both the EA and Thursday previews. Comps are a bit all over the place but I would probably put the EA at around $750-850k. I believe I will be able to give a T-1 hour update tomorrow so I'll wait on a final prediction until then, but for now I will just say this is a promising update after a disappointing final week!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	99	382	898	16881	5.32

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		569	209	63.36
MTC1:		429	129	47.77
Alamo:		67	29	7.46
Other chains:		402	224	44.7

 

Thursday Comps:

1.63x Monkey Man: $2.28 Million

1.3x Argylle: $2.23 Million (17 theaters)

0.23x MI7 (TUE): $1.63 Million (17 theaters)

0.28x Indy 5: $2.04 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.05 Million

 

I don't have as many T-1 hour comps so this looks worse than it actually was, all the comps would have gone up if I had them in my previous post. Thinking about these, my post yesterday, and the pace, I will go with a final prediction of: $2.3 Million Thursday (+/- 0.2), ~$750-850k EA). So maybe a reported total number around $3.1 Million

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

20.5M is my final prediction for Fall Guy this weekend.

 

5M for Tarot.

[abracadabra1998]

16 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I do that in my initial set up. So I have a row for each show that has theater, time, total seats, unavailable seats, and then columns for each day.  Then on the app I just count everything greyed out and subtract out the unavailable.  I've been doing it long enough that I can spot them in most of the auditoriums 😅

 

Haha same, at this point I know most of the rooms and how many seats they have just by looking at the layout... but thanks for the info!

[AniNate]

Just skimming through Tinseltown Canton's charts for a small sample, these are total tickets sold for their opening Thursday-Sunday frames:

 

Kingdom of the Apes - 256
IF - 79

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I highly recommend using the Fandango app once you've set your sheet up.  I only use the site for getting the seat counts of new shows now and for shows with a ton of sales. So much easier to scroll through seating charts that way.

 

I've also noticed that if you open a show in a new tab - don't go to the new tab until the seating chart loads.  That's worked every time I start hitting the errors.

 

Hope this helps!

 

40 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

With bigger releases, I end up using the “inspect element” quite a bit and searching for keywords like “unavailable”, are you able to do that with the app at all?

 

Regardless, really helpful advice, thank you  

 

Yeah as you probably remember, kataniss, I use keyword searches for seats sold (though via a HTML source code search through a javascript shortcut I installed on my tab bar) so the Fandango app route probably won't help all that much for my set up.  Though I suppose I could use it for the theaters/showtimes that have so few seats sold that I can just as easily eyeball it.  Just would have to put my iPad next to my dual-monitor setup (one monitor for tracking, one monitor for spreadsheet makes things much easier as I don't have to keep alt-tabbing or swapping between windows as I track).

 

Gonna poke and prod at it until I find a solution.  Likely will find something, but until I do lower priority tracking might take a back seat for me (or rather I might use it for Proof of Concept testing when the mood to experiment strikes me)

[TheFlatLannister]

Final number for Fall Guy - Miami: (3311 tickets sold)

 

$2.3M (A bit of a collapse in the last few hours)

 

with EA I think it gets reported as $3.1M 

Edited May 3 by TheFlatLannister

[DAJK]

Yea I don’t know anymore, walkups for Fall Guy are getting better and better as the evening progresses. Maybe it’s a Canada/BC thing (Ryan Gosling being Canadian?) but my comps would say 3M true Thursday is possible. Hmm.