The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/9/2024 at 11:23 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	138	38	196	24094	0.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		151	16	77.04
MTC1:		154	27	78.57
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		42	11	21.43

 

Comps:

0.57x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Total): $3.76 Million

0.8x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.6 Million (17 theaters)

1.89x Exorcist Believer: $5.39 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.25 Million

 

Chuggin along

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	138	130	326	23344	1.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		250	99	76.69
MTC1:		231	77	70.86
Other chains:		95	53	29.14

 

Comps:

1.13x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $5.64 Million

0.84x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.79 Million (17 theaters)

1.93x Exorcist Believer: $5.51 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.98 Million

 

Still struggling to come up with comps for this, a blockbuster with some built-in audience but that is very backloaded due to the horror nature of it. Idk man

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/9/2024 at 11:26 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-39):

Day: T-39, T-38	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	134	27	76	22993	0.33
Wednesday July 17 EA: 13 theaters	17	6	45	3492	1.29
TOTALS:	151	33	121	26485	0.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		56	39	73.68
MTC1:		47	28	61.84
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		29	21	38.16

 

I will start having comps for this in one week, T-32. For now this is not doing terribly for what I think will be a big walk-up movie

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	142	50	126	24223	0.52
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	67	112	4625	2.42
TOTALS:	163	117	238	28848	0.83

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		98	39	77.78
MTC1:		87	28	69.05
Other chains:		39	21	30.95

 

Comps:

1.07x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.04 Million

1.32x Fall Guy: $4.17 Million

 

Average: $5.61 Million

 

Sticking with these two comps for the foreseeable updates because of similar EA situations

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/9/2024 at 11:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-46):

Day: T-46	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	84	3951	44821	8.82

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2722	44	68.89
MTC1:		1814	169	45.91
Alamo:		0	-272	0
Other chains:		2137	187	54.09

 

No comps yet, wanted to update it and remove the Alamo sales

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-35):

Day: T-35	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	534	4485	43339	10.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3021	299	67.36
MTC1:		2016	202	44.95
Other chains:		2469	332	55.05

 

Over the next week or two I will eventually add The Marvels and Dune as comps. Yes I know they're terrible ones, but it's what I have and I want to start giving a frame of reference for what these numbers might mean

[BOfficeStats]

 

Any idea how Longlegs and Fly Me to the Moon are doing?

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

The Bikeriders (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 30/268 (11.2% sold)

 

Comps: 

The Northman: $1.76 mil

Elvis: $709k

Furiosa: $1.18 mil

Average: $1.22 mil

 

Friday:

5 2D showings: 41/335 (12.2% sold)

 

Comps:

The Northman: $2.72 mil

Elvis: $1.45 mil

Furiosa: $2.81 mil

Average: $2.33 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 71/603 (11.8% sold) [+20]

 

Comps: 

The Northman: $4.55 mil

Elvis: $2.49 mil

Furiosa: $3.89 mil

Average: $3.64 mil

 

Kinda just throwing comps out there based on what films I've seen others use. I do feel very confident about this finishing around or just barely over $1M previews; guessing full OD will be around $3.5-4M.

The Bikeriders (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 

5 2D showings: 82/335 (24.5% sold) [+41]

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $4.32 mil

 

Probably over-indexing here, but that checks out lol. Pretty decent finish, though. Gonna up my prediction range to $4-4.5M Full OD.

[kayumanggi]

92M prediction for INSIDE OUT II.

[Krissykins]

The Bikeriders opening over $10m would be pleasant surprise and a good sign. 

[Migs20242]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

92M prediction for INSIDE OUT II.

On par with Top Gun Maverick, Mario, and Barbie.

[Porthos]

On 6/20/2024 at 2:20 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28333	33623	5290	15.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

			Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM			21117	25.05%		9.02m
L&T			16962	31.19%		9.04m
BP2			16800	31.49%		8.82m
AM3			10475	50.50%		8.84m
GOTG3			10750	49.21%		8.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1143/12925  [8.84% sold]
Matinee:      292/4469  [6.53% | 5.52% of all tickets sold]
3D:              558/6800  [8.21% | 10.55% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         2770/11535  [24.01% | 52.36% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        39 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

Slightly against my better judgement,  BP2 comp coming back online tomorrow (T-35).

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28270	33623	5353	15.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-35 Comp                 TOO EARLY TO TAKE SERIOUSLY EDITION

%

Sold T-35

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

127.15

193

4210

0/294

32812/37022

11.37%

16800

31.86%

35.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1145/12925  [8.86% sold]
Matinee:      292/4469  [6.53% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:               570/6800  [8.38% | 10.65% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          2799/11535  [24.27% | 52.29% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV    55 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    57 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

So, on the one hand, as can be seen by the tickets sold for BP2, BP2 was still in its initial surge. Thus that comp is gonna be coming down for a while (last night it was at 36.87m, so it's already dropped 1m+ in just a day).  On the other hand, DP3 is still gonna be an R-rated film, not to mention ATP hikes since 2022.  Also might be some slight differences in audience given it might pull in some non-MCU folks who were mainly following the Fox X-Men films.  Maybe.  At the edges.

 

Either way, that comp is gonna come down for a while.  Maybe a long while depending on how the bottom of the U-curves compare.  At the same time, the comp will very likely have to be adjusted upwards at the end, so swings and roundabouts.

 

Be interesting to see how long it takes to stabilize and where it does.

Edited June 23 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Think you’re missing the 63 sold today part @Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Horizon MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Previews - 194/13189 (76 showings)

 

Comps

Furiosa - $1.1M

Civil War - $1.8M

Bikeriders - $2.3M

Pacing very well. All 3 comps doubled in the last 5 days.

[TomThomas]

29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Horizon MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Previews - 194/13189 (76 showings)

 

Comps

Furiosa - $1.1M

Civil War - $1.8M

Bikeriders - $2.3M

Pacing very well. All 3 comps doubled in the last 5 days.

It's alive! Maybe it has something to do with Kevin doing heavy lifting on all those talk shows and podcasts.

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Wednesday - 735/104885 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Inside Out - $22.15M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $32M

Minions 2 ~ $37M

Minions 2 I don't have exact data, rough comp.

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Wednesday - 811/104881 (408 showings)

 

Comps

 

Inside Out - $22.3M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $31.2M

Minions 2 ~ $37M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/16/2024 at 5:10 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-40 Days (27 Days on sale)

 

Previews - 9220/84949 (322 showings) $135K

 

Comps

GoTG 3 (T-17 Days) - $30M

Black Panther 2 (T-17 Days) - $31.8M

Thor 4 (T-17 Days) - $29M

 

Spider Verse 2 (T-17 Days) - $60M

 

Target achieved. Next will be T-30, 10.2K be great.

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-35 Days (32 Days on sale)

 

Previews - 9611/84947 (322 showings) $140K

 

Comps

GoTG 3 (T-17 Days) - $31.4M

Black Panther 2 (T-17 Days) - $33M

Thor 4 (T-17 Days) - $30M

 

Black Panther 2 (T-35 Days, 4 days on sale) - $49M

Edited June 21 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Legion Again said:

Think you’re missing the 63 sold today part @Porthos

 

Bah.

 

Already had logged out for the night, but randomly checked here before turning in.

 

*goes to main computer*

*fixes*

*gets ready to log back out*

 

Fixed.

 

(again:  Bah)

[vafrow]

On 6/20/2024 at 6:22 AM, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-14 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 91

New Sales: 12

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.4

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 7/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 40/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 7/7

Regular 3D: 2/5

Dolby: 57/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 21/10

 

Comps

2.600x Inside Out 2 for $33.8M

1.896x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.1M

2.395x GB:FE for $8.9M

3.957x Wonka for $13.8M

22.750x Garfield for $43.2M

30.333x IF for $53.1M

Average: $27.0M

 

Continues to go up. It's staying above 10% daily growth all week, which is pretty amazing this far out. I have to think it's got room to accelerate as well once we're in the final stretch of school.

 

Ticket bookings are primarily in small groups, ranging from 5-10. People booking this far out are likely doing outings with friends and family.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-13 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 100

New Sales: 9

Growth: 10%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 14/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 40/7

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 9/7

Regular 3D: 2/5

Dolby: 64/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 21/10

 

Comps

2.857x Inside Out 2 for $37.1M

1.852x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $8.9M

2.222x GB:FE for $8.2M

4.167x Wonka for $14.6M

25.000x Garfield for $47.5M

33.333x IF for $58.3M

Average: $29.1M

 

Steady and consistent.

[vafrow]

On 6/20/2024 at 6:28 AM, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-8, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 36

New Sales since T-8: 14

Growth: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 26/6

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 15/7

IMAX: 13/5

4DX: 8/2

 

Comps

0.514x KOTPOTA for $2.6M

 0.486x Furiosa for $1.7M

0.396x KFP4 for $1.5M

 

Average: $2.0M

 

I've been meaning to do an update here, but honestly, it's been so uninteresting, I've kept putting off posting it. It's staying steady with comps foe the most part with no signs of a breakout. I'm hoping we see movement soon.

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-7, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 43

New Sales: 14

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 33/6

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 15/7

IMAX: 20/5

4DX: 8/2

 

Comps

0.573x KOTPOTA for $2.9M

 0.434x Furiosa for $1.5M

0.381x KFP4 for $1.4M

 

Average: $2.2M

 

Still not very active. 

[Kon]

14 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-7, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 43

New Sales: 14

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 33/6

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 15/7

IMAX: 20/5

4DX: 8/2

 

Comps

0.573x KOTPOTA for $2.9M

 0.434x Furiosa for $1.5M

0.381x KFP4 for $1.4M

 

Average: $2.2M

 

Still not very active. 

 

How much do you think A Quiet Place made in Thurday Preview?

Edited June 21 by Kon

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

How much do you think A Quiet Place made in Thurday Preview?

 

It's hard to judge off my numbers. I believe other trackers are showing much stronger numbers overall, where if mine was an indication, it would be headed to clear disappointment territory, probably in the $2-3M territory.

 

I don't have a lot of horror comps though, so it's hard to put a lot of faith in what I have. I'd say KOTPOTA is probably my best comp, which it's doing best against. Furiosa was front loaded, and KFP4 overindexed here. If it starts picking up speed early next week, I think it can gain on KOTPOTA, and track closer to $4M hopefully.

[Kon]

23 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

It's hard to judge off my numbers. I believe other trackers are showing much stronger numbers overall, where if mine was an indication, it would be headed to clear disappointment territory, probably in the $2-3M territory.

 

I don't have a lot of horror comps though, so it's hard to put a lot of faith in what I have. I'd say KOTPOTA is probably my best comp, which it's doing best against. Furiosa was front loaded, and KFP4 overindexed here. If it starts picking up speed early next week, I think it can gain on KOTPOTA, and track closer to $4M hopefully.

 

Thank you for the explanation.