The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

58 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think this was an anomaly for Wakanda right. Its pace was > 100 tickets every day going forward if I am not wrong. Next 20 days Wakanda will catch up to Deadpool's total. Of course Deadpool can finish stronger as it was in steady state for really long. 

 

Still I think Thor would be the best comp. That will take couple of weeks before the comps make sense. 

 

Going to wait until tonight's update to speak at this at length, but... BP2 is likely to "overtake" DP3 much sooner than that.

 

Also* gonna wait 'till tonight's update to speak at this at length, but L&T is going to be a pretty bad comp for almost the entire run thanks to A] DP3 having literally a month-and-a-half more days of pre-sales (DP3: T-66 | L&T: T-24) and B] L&T being relatively backloaded thanks to holiday timing and later review embargo lift.

* Presuming I don't get sucked into the conversation topic ahead of time.

 

Mind DP3 also has a late review lift (as well as social media embargo) which is one of the reasons to think that it could have a strong finish.  But 42 extra days of pre-sales is gonna put a tremendous thumb on the scale and by the time it may or may not equalize (your two weeks musing) then we get into rollout timing differences.

 

Two months plus of pre-sales is just headache inducing all the way around (and not just coz it takes me 45 minutes each night to do the track).

[keysersoze123]

@Porthos Did Wakanda over index slightly at Sacramento? Thor will catch up as well by T-7 time frame. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/21/2024 at 12:00 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	142	50	126	24223	0.52
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	67	112	4625	2.42
TOTALS:	163	117	238	28848	0.83

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		98	39	77.78
MTC1:		87	28	69.05
Other chains:		39	21	30.95

 

Comps:

1.07x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.04 Million

1.32x Fall Guy: $4.17 Million

 

Average: $5.61 Million

 

Sticking with these two comps for the foreseeable updates because of similar EA situations

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	142	15	141	24223	0.58
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	7	119	4625	2.57
TOTALS:	163	22	260	28848	0.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		109	11	77.3
MTC1:		98	11	69.5
Other chains:		43	4	30.5

 

Comps:

1.78x Quiet Place Day One: ???

1.03x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $6.78 Million

1.33x Fall Guy: $4.18 Million

 

Average: $5.48 Million

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/21/2024 at 12:02 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-35):

Day: T-35	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	534	4485	43339	10.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3021	299	67.36
MTC1:		2016	202	44.95
Other chains:		2469	332	55.05

 

Over the next week or two I will eventually add The Marvels and Dune as comps. Yes I know they're terrible ones, but it's what I have and I want to start giving a frame of reference for what these numbers might mean

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-32):

Day: T-32	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	81	4566	43339	10.54

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3071	50	67.26
MTC1:		2040	24	44.68
Other chains:		2526	57	55.32

 

 

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Porthos Did Wakanda over index slightly at Sacramento? Thor will catch up as well by T-7 time frame. 

 

Very slightly:

 

Quote

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm-4:40pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	376	26416	43216	16800	38.87%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	78
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	2053

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	59.61		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		43412	38.70%		29.81m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	79.56		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	79.56%		28.64m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	99.04		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	99.04%		28.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     4461/13217  [33.75% sold]
Matinee:    1217/4761  [25.56% | 7.24% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

VERY nice finish to the day.  People treating this like a pseudo-Friday thanks to Veteran's Day, perhaps?  Or just the good reviews kicking in?  Either way, stellar end to the track.

 

As noted by @Legion By Night funnily enough, MoM and L&T did indeed harmonize in comps.  Who could have possibly guessed?    Even the NWH comp is in the same-ish ballpark.  So who am I to ignore my local Marvel comps?

 

Let's call for 28.7m +/- .7m. 

 

Be curious to see if it over-indexing in places like Philly will drag up the comp or not.  Or if this is just playing well locally (if not Philly well).

 

Within (personal) tolerance, though.

 

[Insomnia]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Horizon: Chapter 1 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	55	108	108	5730	1.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		19	19	17.59
MTC1:		39	39	36.11
Other chains:		69	69	63.89

 

Comps:

1.19x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.01 Million

3.11x Arthur the King: $2.57 Million

3.11x Ordinary Angels: $885k

 

Average: $1.49 Million

 

Bikeriders comp tomorrow will probably be my best one here

 

Blue Lock the Movie: Episode Nagi (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	28	22	22	2471	0.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		17	17	77.27
Other chains:		5	5	22.73

 

Comps:

0.08x Spy x Family Code White: $55k

 

Yo wtf? Didn't realize this was gonna be so bad, wouldn't have bothered if I did  

I feel like anime got a boost at the box office just as we were coming out of covid but now it's back to being a complete non entity.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/22/2024 at 8:22 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
485	2900	95249	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

217

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

(0.952x) of Bad Boys 4 $5.62M

(1.050x) of Apes $5.25M 

(1.514x) of Civil War $4.39M 
Comps AVG: $5.09M 

 

Still looking at $5M, with a chance at $6M

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	3470	96472	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

336

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.880x) of Bad Boys 4 $5.19M

(1.001x) of Apes $5.05M 

(1.561x) of Civil War $4.53M 
Comps AVG: $4.92M 

 

Looking more like it will settle around $5M previews 

[Insomnia]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	3470	96472	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

336

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.880x) of Bad Boys 4 $5.19M

(1.001x) of Apes $5.05M 

(1.561x) of Civil War $4.53M 
Comps AVG: $4.92M 

 

Looking more like it will settle around $5M previews 

Hoping for strong walk-ups, otherwise that definitely isn't enough for $50M.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/21/2024 at 6:09 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
319	443	60195	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(0.165x) of Furiosa $576k

(0.240x) of Civil War $697k

(0.593x) of Challengers $949k

Comps average: $741k

 

Pretty good recovery considering this will underindex in metropolitan MTCs

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
405	541	78594	0.69%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.964x) of The Watchers $964k

(0.244x) of Civil War $706k

(0.479x) of Challengers $766k

Comps average: $812k

 

Maybe this gets to $1M previews, but pace is not great so idk 

[Eric is Quiet]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-has-moana-2-emerged-as-the-thanksgiving-favorite-over-wicked/

 

[excel1]

didn't see it in the other thread so putting here, do we have a date for ticket sales for TRAP?

[Flip]

On 6/23/2024 at 8:43 PM, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-4)

 

12 showtimes/281 tix sold (+64)

.817x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [10.62m*]
1.57x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [8.75m]
5.62x Watchers (T-4) [5.62m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow.

 

Also, one of the 3 theaters I track is temporarily closed for unforeseen maintenance, but presales are still open for Tuesday on. However, if it remains closed I won’t be able to get a T-1 or T-0 number, so I will probably just measure the growth compared to the other two theaters with the growth of other movies I have.

Also also, there is the possibility that people seeing that the theater is closed is causing them to shy away from buying tickets, even if it’s for a while later.

A Quiet Place (T-3)

 

theater no longer closed

 

12 showtimes/331 tix sold (+50)

.75x Inside Out 2 (T-3) [9.75m*]
1.53x Bad Boys 4 (T-3) [8.54m]
4.53x Watchers (T-3) [4.53m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

Watchers comp is probably the best to follow.

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-32 Thursday: 25632/207557

T-33 Friday: 15988/271893

T-34 Saturday: 11557/284179

T-35 Sunday: 3730/282093

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-31 Thursday: 25795/207557

T-32 Friday: 16161/271893

T-33 Saturday: 11694/284179

T-34 Sunday: 3800/282093

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-10 Wednesday: 1743/230098

T-11 Thursday: 462/229845

T-12 Friday: 612/235194

T-13 Saturday: 1077/238202

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-9 Wednesday: 1978/230098

T-10 Thursday: 535/229845

T-11 Friday: 710/235194

T-12 Saturday: 1212/238202

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-4 Thursday: 1034/85461

T-5 Friday: 1395/142506

T-6 Saturday: 656/157746

T-7 Sunday: 325/156530

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-3 Thursday: 1250/85461

T-4 Friday: 1687/142506

T-5 Saturday: 797/157746

T-6 Sunday: 395/156530

[Flip]

On 6/23/2024 at 8:50 PM, Flip said:

Despicable Me 4 (T-10)

 

22 showtimes/140 tix sold (+46) 

.73x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-10) [9.49m]

 

Twisters (T-25)

 

14 showtimes/48 tix sold (+2)

 

still hasn’t reached AQP’s first day of sales yet. Sold 2 tickets in the last 5 days.

Despicable Me 4 (T-9)

 

22 showtimes/151 tix sold (+11) 

.76x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-9) [9.88m]

 

still waiting for the final week to jump, but I would not be surprised if the 5 day just barely passes 100m

[crazymoviekid]

A Quiet Place: Day One: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 24 Tickets

Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

FNAF: $2.13M

The Nun 2: $7.02M

Insidious 5: $9.77M

Scream VI: $3.71M

HE: $6.28M

Nope: $6.12M

Black Phone: $4.30M

 

Bit of variety, but I'll go for $4M-$6M right now

[crazymoviekid]

Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1:

 

Thursday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 8 Tickets

 

The Bikeriders: $1.77M

KotFM: $.92M

Indy 5: $.60M

Asteroid City: $.48M

Elvis: $.94M

 

Comps are a bit wide. I'll just say $1M for now.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/23/2024 at 5:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 3835/104643 46310.03 974 shows +428 

Friday - 4897/158125 59254.15 1439 shows +750

 

At least Friday is ramping up. 

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 5038/108787 60465.96 1023 shows +1203

Friday - 6363/165261 76163.19 1528 shows +1466

 

its definitely accelerating a bit. May be 1.5m previews and low teens OW?

[keysersoze123]

On 6/23/2024 at 7:34 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-10) - 20359/1068512 338861.66 5644 shows +1544

 

Just Wednesday. I dont think rest of the week matters. It will follow atypical drop/increase for that week anyway. Big question is how it accelerates next week. I am not sure its going to get even a "review boost" as its already out in few OS markets. Ideally that should build the hype. I cannot see any so far. 

FYI Mario was at 74,554 with 4107 sales for T-10. They are not perfect comps(Mario has big fan base)but in the end they will be comparable.  

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-9) - 22809/1089364 378714.91 5780 shows +2450

 

it has accelerated as well. Let us see how things go. May be once it hits T-7, we could comp it with IO2 Friday?