The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[excel1]

4 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

this would be horrific 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

this would be horrific 

 

Box Office Theory is predicting 78.5M. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It’s not losing any theaters? That’s kind of crazy. Obviously it’ll lose PLFs but this is a good thing 

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, AnthonyJPHer said:

It’s not losing any theaters? That’s kind of crazy. Obviously it’ll lose PLFs but this is a good thing 

This is pretty much the only cash cow theaters have gotten since Dune 2, heck since freaking Barbenheimer, ofc they're gonna keep it in screens as long as possible

[AnthonyJPHer]

3 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

This is pretty much the only cash cow theaters have gotten since Dune 2, heck since freaking Barbenheimer, ofc they're gonna keep it in screens as long as possible

Im surprised this is losing PLFs. This is making so much money for the theaters.

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, AnthonyJPHer said:

Im surprised this is losing PLFs. This is making so much money for the theaters.

I'm pretty sure they're contractually obligated to give PLFs to most big new releases

[kayumanggi]

And then you have FURIOSA with fewer theaters than THE FALL GUY.

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/24/2024 at 1:56 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	142	15	141	24223	0.58
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	7	119	4625	2.57
TOTALS:	163	22	260	28848	0.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		109	11	77.3
MTC1:		98	11	69.5
Other chains:		43	4	30.5

 

Comps:

1.78x Quiet Place Day One: ???

1.03x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $6.78 Million

1.33x Fall Guy: $4.18 Million

 

Average: $5.48 Million

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	31	172	22960	0.75
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	33	152	4204	3.62
TOTALS:	159	64	324	27164	1.19

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		136	27	79.07
MTC1:		118	20	68.6
Other chains:		54	11	31.4

 

Comps:

2.05x Quiet Place Day One: ???

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $6.92 Million

1.51x Fall Guy: $4.75 Million

 

Average: $5.84 Million

 

I must say, in "sort-of but not really but sometimes" tornado country, this is doing pretty well? Surprised at the doom-and-gloom around here

[Insomnia]

43 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

this would be horrific 

You could say it would be...a disaster!

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Horizon	T-0	Jax	5	15	19	136	1,403	9.69%
		Phx	6	17	11	79	1,921	4.11%
		Ral	8	18	13	102	1,428	7.14%
	Total		19	50	43	317	4,752	6.67%
Quiet Place 3	T-0	Jax	6	58	179	638	9,722	6.56%
		Phx	7	53	232	718	8,309	8.64%
		Ral	9	59	147	500	7,967	6.28%
	Total		22	170	558	1,856	25,998	7.14%

*One Phx theater is down today and has all shows marked as sold out.  It's a pretty good theater for presales so numbers will be slightly depressed

 

Horizon T-0 adjusted comps

 - Civil War - .45x (1.08m)

 - Stillwater - 4.73x (1.4m)

 - Arthur the King - 2.19x (1.8m)

 - Uncharted - .252x (783k)

 - Monkey Man - .817x (961k)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.37x (916k)

 

Size adjusted comp average - 1.1m

 

Likely will finish around 1m

 

Quiet Place 3 T-0 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .935x (6.13m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.293x (7.15m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.024x (5.48m)

 - Scream VI - .97x (5.86m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.14x (7.52m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.215x (5.35m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.99m

 

Hard to say where this will end up with only tracking this a couple days, but this was a good day.  I'm expecting around 6.2m but there's still a pretty wide range

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Horizon	1-Hr	Jax	5	16	34	170	1,501	11.33%
		Phx	6	17	11	90	1,921	4.69%
		Ral	8	18	49	151	1,428	10.57%
	Total		19	51	94	411	4,850	8.47%
Quiet Place 3	1-Hr	Jax	6	60	427	1,065	9,942	10.71%
		Phx	7	55	264	982	8,453	11.62%
		Ral	9	59	333	833	7,967	10.46%
	Total		22	174	1,024	2,880	26,362	10.92%

 

Horizon T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Civil War - .384x (913k)

 - Stillwater - 3.07x (910k)

 - Arthur the King - 2.22x (1.83m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Monkey Man - .722x (849k)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.52x (1.016m)

All drama - 721k

All adventure - 879k

All R - 902k

All movies - 831k

 

Size adjusted comp average - 1m

Growth model forecast - 1.07m

 

Not sure how good of a sample my regions are for a movie this regional Normal range would be around 950k, but this will probably be around 1m.

 

Quiet Place 3 T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Nope - .991x (6.5m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Halloween Kills - 1.155x (6.18m)

 - Scream VI - 1.165x (7.04m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 1.6x (8m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.459x (6.42m)

 - Godzilla X Kong - .744x (6.71m)

 - Dune - 1.05x (5.55m)

 - Dune Part 2 - .606x (5.61m)

All horror - 8.27m

All PG-13 horror - 8.6m

All movies - 7.04m

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.39m

Growth model forecast - 7.81m

 

Really solid final day.  Should clear 6m pretty easily and honestly 7m wouldn't surprise me.   At the risk of causing overreactions and disappointment, I'll go with 6.8m for my prediction

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/24/2024 at 2:03 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-32):

Day: T-32	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	81	4566	43339	10.54

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3071	50	67.26
MTC1:		2040	24	44.68
Other chains:		2526	57	55.32

 

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	154	4720	43339	10.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3129	58	66.29
MTC1:		2086	46	44.19
Other chains:		2634	108	55.81

 

(TERRIBLE) Comp:

2.24x Dune Part 2 (w/ EA): $26.86 Million

 

 

I'll add Barbenheimer and The Marvels, and switch to Dune Thursday Only in maybe a week or so

 

[Bob Train]

52 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Im surprised this is losing PLFs. This is making so much money for the theaters.

Quiet Place is more of a spectacle so it makes sense why it gets PLFs. Kids movies don't rely on PLFs.

[Shawn Robbins]

Latest BOT tracking is up.

 

With the holiday next week, hopefully we'll have this posted a little earlier but time will tell.

 

 

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	31	172	22960	0.75
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	33	152	4204	3.62
TOTALS:	159	64	324	27164	1.19

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		136	27	79.07
MTC1:		118	20	68.6
Other chains:		54	11	31.4

 

Comps:

2.05x Quiet Place Day One: ???

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $6.92 Million

1.51x Fall Guy: $4.75 Million

 

Average: $5.84 Million

 

I must say, in "sort-of but not really but sometimes" tornado country, this is doing pretty well? Surprised at the doom-and-gloom around here

Imo The Fall Guy is probably the closest comp analog here given it’s a white skewing, GA action blockbuster that had a super long sales window without the kind of explosive Latino-boosted late walkups of an Apes or a GxK.

 

In which case, while it’s good that Twisters is growing, $4.5M THU+EA would be pretty bad actually. This is the middle of summer for a PG-13 action movie, it is not registering close to a 10x IM and will probably land closer to Nope at 6.875x and Oppenheimer at 7.85x in this same frame during 2022 and 2023. Maybe it does a little better and closer to the 8.38x of Indy 5 without the major cinephile rush, but the presence of EA will pull that down a fair bit. So if we set a moderate 7-8x baseline range, theeeeeen Twisters would be eyeing around $32-36.5M for the weekend. Yikes. Now yes if it overperforms to the $6.92M that Apes is comping to, then it’s looking at a better $48-55M, but I don’t see any way this gets to the $70M+ BOP projections without over-performing all the way to $10M+ THU and Oppenheimer levels, which is not being indicated anywhere. 

[Unfitclock]

@charlie Jatinder how is horizon looking to you?

[keysersoze123]

AQP already crossed 100K by 340PM. Thinking it can go to 130K. Definitely looks like hitting 6.5m+ previews. Really strong finish for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

Horizon on the other hand is having an abysmal final day so far. Just sold 4K more tickets since yesterday evening. Again probably the lowest among what I tracked. Sub 1m previews. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. Low double digits at best. 

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty A Quiet Place: Day One Sacramento Report [T-1]

2209/22213 (9.94% sold) [+579 tickets] 155 showtimes.

 

2.72044x  M3GAN at T-1    [7.48m]
0.97787x  Nope at T-1         [6.26m]
0.96928x Scream VI at T-1 [5.52m]

0.42868x FNAF at T-1         [4.42m]
----

1.31959x  Aqua 2 at T-1       [5.94m]
1.90760x  Furiosa at T-1      [6.68m]
2.10984x  Fall Guy at T-1     [6.65m]

1.40701x  Bad Boys 4 at T-1 [8.30m]

 

====

 

I mean, I'm not sure I get the concern from some folks today.  Looks fine to me.  But maybe I wasn't expecting all that much.

 

Ignoring the lol comps of M3GAN and especially BB4 (and FNAF in the other direction), looks kinda like 5m to 6m to me.  Of course, horror/thriller are ultra-dependent on day-of sales, so who knows.  But as I said, "looks fine" for a T-1 update.

 

Quick and Dirty A Quiet Place: Day One Sacramento Report [T-0 FINAL]

3745/22213 (16.86% sold) [+1536 tickets] 155 showtimes [4:35pm - 5:00pm]

NOTE:  All 3pm Fan Event showtimes were sampled at the start of their screenings

 

2.11702x   M3GAN at T-0       [5.82m]
0.97985x  Nope at T-0           [6.27m]
1.19496x  Scream VI at T-0   [6.81m]
0.57918x  FNAF at T-0            [5.97m]
----

1.42450x  Aqua 2 at T-0         [6.41m]
2.16099x  Furiosa at T-0        [7.56m]
2.48013x  Fall Guy at T-0       [7.81m]
1.41321x   Bad Boys 4 at T-0  [8.34m]

 

======

 

Gosh.  Well-reviewed horror blows the fuck up on day-of.  Who could have possibly seen that coming! 

 

Sarcasm aside, very nice day in Sacramento.  Horror/thriller comps have an average of just a slice under 6.25m. Gonna bump that up slightly thanks to ATP hikes. So lets go with 6.4m +/- .3m and call it a night.