The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[cookieleeann]

The sales for Friday for D&W have exploded at one of my main local theaters here in Miami. Friday was looking a bit empty until the last 24 hours. Friday is almost completely sold out in Dolby and IMAX and a whole bunch of standard 2D times have been added and I expect some to be sold out also very soon. 3D....well that's still the only thing that is selling the least. But other than that, Friday is looking VERY healthy. I will check back with Saturday soon. 

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
314	15470	61956	25.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1215

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

26

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-2

(1.784x) of GOTG 3 $34.33M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary adjustment) 

(1.249x) of Barbenheimer $39.48M

 

Comps AVG: $36.91M

Fantastic growth. Seeing $35M as the floor right now

*NOTE: Yesterday GOTG 3 was wrong, should have been $33.63M

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
331	17974	70803	25.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2504

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

17

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-1

(1.917x) of GOTG 3 $36.91M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary adjustment) 

(1.229x) of Barbenheimer $38.84M

 

Comps AVG: $37.88M

Wow just outstanding. Absolutely demolished GOTG vol 3. I would say $35M previews is the floor. $38M looks likely and $40M is becoming a reality. 

[Ryan C]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
331	17974	70803	25.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2504

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

17

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-1

(1.917x) of GOTG 3 $36.91M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary adjustment) 

(1.229x) of Barbenheimer $38.84M

 

Comps AVG: $37.88M

Wow just outstanding. Absolutely demolished GOTG vol 3. I would say $35M previews is the floor. $38M looks likely and $40M is becoming a reality. 

 

Tomorrow's gonna be crazy fun!

[TheFlatLannister]

Definitely seeing capacity issues now (with Florida tracking). Thursday is starting to sellout and Friday pace is amazing. IM will be pretty good if I had to guess

Edited July 25 by TheFlatLannister

[cookieleeann]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Definitely seeing capacity issues now (with Florida tracking). Thursday is starting to sellout and Friday pace is amazing. IM will be pretty good if I had to guess

This is exactly what I'm seeing in Miami at the moment. Friday sales have jumped super high in the last day or so. I see sold out times that I did not see on Monday. I've checked my local AMC's, Regals, CMX, and Silverspot and it's the same story across the board.

[HummingLemon496]

This means that @Relevation was completely correct when he changed his prediction to $200-205M right before tickets went on sale

[HummingLemon496]

Opening higher than DS2 which was PG-13 and came out right after No Way Home is just. . .fucking incredible. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+4 days of sales]

T-2 Thursday: 72801/365615

T-3 Friday: 63233/504375

T-4 Saturday: 47353/508671

T-5 Sunday: 23760/498677

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-1 Thursday: 85238/365615

T-2 Friday: 77283/504375

T-3 Saturday: 56866/508671

T-4 Sunday: 29151/498677

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

"I mean, it is still pretty hurt by all the poorly received movies recently, and it might not even beat Gotg3 by 20% DOM so I dunno about “absolutely demolish” - @Joyous Legion

 

r/agedlikemilk

This is not nice 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

This is not nice 

True, but Legion is a Marvel fan so I doubt he'll be offended. 

[AniNate]

Nothing has "aged like milk" until the numbers have actually come in

[vafrow]

I managed to do one last manual count tonight. It took a while and I might only get to posting it out tomorrow, but results seem positive. T-4 to T-1 jumped 38%. I thought it would fall behind the few comps I had, which both had lower baselines to work from (Dune, Marvels), but both held pretty firm. Further, I actually have a single theatre comp for GOTG3, which it's comping at high $40M range. My numbers are at best just high level validation, but pointing to the same optimism we're seeing elsewhere.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
331	17974	70803	25.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2504

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

17

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-1

(1.917x) of GOTG 3 $36.91M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary adjustment) 

(1.229x) of Barbenheimer $38.84M

 

Comps AVG: $37.88M

Wow just outstanding. Absolutely demolished GOTG vol 3. I would say $35M previews is the floor. $38M looks likely and $40M is becoming a reality. 

Florida is absolute chaos. Definitely have never seen anything like this and i tracked Barbenheimer

 

Spoiler

So this is what it felt like to track NWH

 

Edited July 25 by TheFlatLannister

[Flip]

On 7/22/2024 at 11:24 AM, Flip said:

Trap (T-11) 4 days of sales

 

8 showtimes/89 tix sold (+32)

 

.51x AQP Day One (T-15) [3.46m]

Trap (T-8) 3 days of sales

 

8 showtimes/151 tix sold (+62)

 

.69x AQP Day One (T-8) [4.76m]

3.28x The Watchers (T-8) [3.28m]

1.05x Longlegs (T-8) [3.15m]

 

Very good. Just to show how good it’s doing, it sold 50% more in the last day than Inside Out 2 did and more than doubled the equivalent sales for AQP Day One. No way this misses 20m unless reviews are tepid

[Ryan C]

A new showtime was added to my local theater for Deadpool and Wolverine earlier today. 

 

When I first saw it, no seats were taken yet. 

 

I just checked right now and there's 35 seats that are taken. Freaking insane! 

Edited July 25 by Ryan C

[VanillaSkies]

16 minutes ago, Flip said:

Trap (T-8) 3 days of sales

 

8 showtimes/151 tix sold (+62)

 

.69x AQP Day One (T-8) [4.76m]

3.28x The Watchers (T-8) [3.28m]

1.05x Longlegs (T-8) [3.15m]

 

Very good. Just to show how good it’s doing, it sold 50% more in the last day than Inside Out 2 did and more than doubled the equivalent sales for AQP Day One. No way this misses 20m unless reviews are tepid

I just saw a critic on twitter saying they get to see this tonight and release reactions, so I’m guessing we will find out soon if it’s decent or not.

[charlie Jatinder]

48 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Florida is absolute chaos. Definitely have never seen anything like this and i tracked Barbenheimer

 

  Hide contents

So this is what it felt like to track NWH

 

The joy of NWH was first 24 hours. Towards end it isn't much different from say a Thor 4 but that first 24 hours was insane. 

Back then I used to track manually, seeing all those near fulls in shitties cinemas. Was worth 4 hours it took to get first day results.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/23/2024 at 8:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1392	42245	313479	13.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4772

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

104

*10 sellouts

COMPS

T-2

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.199x) of Dune 2 $39.05M 

 

Dune 2 may actually end up being a solid comp in Florida

 

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1415	50043	317924	15.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7798

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

23

*12 sellouts

COMPS

T-1

(4.360x) of Dune 2 $40.55M 

 

Looks like exhibitors in Florida are scrambling to add more showtimes. Demand is spilling over to those AM showings. 

 

Not saying $40M+ is happening, but take it as you will...

 

oh btw some T-1 comparison from Florida: 

Inside out 2: 2431 sold

Dune 2: 1415 sold

Godzilla Kong: 1318 sold

Twisters: 1176 sold

Edited July 25 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2024 at 4:27 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

I won't be too sure of that. Final week ramp has been common this year so far, especially in summer.

I have to say this is aging super well. Could be the new norm 

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The joy of NWH was first 24 hours. Towards end it isn't much different from say a Thor 4 but that first 24 hours was insane. 

Back then I used to track manually, seeing all those near fulls in shitties cinemas. Was worth 4 hours it took to get first day results.

NWH first day for me were 29680. It is possible actuals were 30K+ as I was checking things manually so may have missed some shows. The next best first day is 12.1K of DS2 while DP3 did 5.44K.
 

No film I have tracked since then had a 25K single day, even on final day. Maybe NWH did but I couldn't track its final. Thor 4 did 22546 on its final day. Expecting Deadpool 3 to may be break NWH record.

Edited July 25 by charlie Jatinder