Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[KP1025]

29 minutes ago, lilmac said:

Barbie is this year’s TGM

 

It really is. Not only in the raw numbers (which are huge), but in the sense that it's grossing quadruple or more what most reasonable predictions had before tracking hit. What a thrilling development after much discourse on here about how this summer wouldn't have another TGM.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Anon said:

Imo THG is being severely underestimated. The games part of the movies always sold well, and this movie has that unlike Mockingjay. If Lionsgate sell that hard it can overperform easily.

People moved beyond the dystopian YA craze a solid decade ago, and it feels less popular since the pandemic especially. Not to mention people were already kind of over it with this franchise by the time the grand finale hit. This has nothing whatsoever going for it. If can be a WOM sleeper if people end up raving about it, but even then I don’t expect over 125 or so bc the OW will be dismal imo. 

[TheFlatLannister]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Absolutely. 225 would be a massive win for any of those. Marvels can maybe go 175ish if well liked. Dune near locked under 150 and THG under 100 (maybe well under 100) imo

With $175M DOM, Marvels is almost locked to go sub $500M. China is a non factor and OS-C won't put up big numbers. 

[wildphantom]

33 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

SOF is the box office story of the year! The little film with a small budget and no marketing no advertising no billboards no TV spots. And yet it's going to make 200 million dollars here and who knows how much internationally. It's a fantastic movie, one of the best of the year that I've seen and it's a subject matter that needs to be talked about more. I'm thrilled that this movie found an audience.

 

@baumer I can’t wait to see the movie. September 1st we get it.  
 

Agree it has easily been the box office story of the year. When was the last time a film nobody had even heard of made this kind of money? A bygone era, that’s when

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

With $175M DOM, Marvels is almost locked to go sub $500M. China is a non factor and OS-C won't put up big numbers. 

The Captain Marvel sequel was already doomed to a massive drop off no matter what. The first had the perfect storm of factors, riding the biggest franchise momentum wave we’ve maybe ever seen, and also being cleverly sold as an integral piece of the puzzle for Endgame. The big problem always was, out of the massive audience turnout for it, no one seemed to passionately love that film. Ignoring the toxic haters, it seemed like nearly everyone was like “eh, cool… where’s Endgame?” A huge drop off was always a given under the circumstances. 
 

Now factor in that the movie is kind of being confusingly marketed as not really even the CM sequel (the name doesn’t signal it well at all to audiences), and also trying to rely on two characters that unfortunately failed to launch at all in popularity in the fandom as its main hook. Now factor in all of the poor MCU momentum killing recently on top of it all. GotG3 really doesn’t count for much since it’s so contained to that trilogy. It is in the perfect spot to flop hard if people don’t love it on the level of a GotG3 or something. That is a big ask. Even then, I think roughly half of the first movie is the best case scenario for it. 

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Captain Marvel sequel was already doomed to a massive drop off no matter what. The first had the perfect storm of factors, riding the biggest franchise momentum wave we’ve maybe ever seen, and also being cleverly sold as an integral piece of the puzzle for Endgame. The big problem always was, out of the massive audience turnout for it, no one seemed to passionately love that film. Ignoring the toxic haters, it seemed like nearly everyone was like “eh, cool… where’s Endgame?” A huge drop off was always a given under the circumstances. 
 

Now factor in that the movie is kind of being confusingly marketed as not really even the CM sequel (the name doesn’t signal it well at all to audiences), and also trying to rely on two characters that unfortunately failed to launch at all in popularity in the fandom as its main hook. Now factor in all of the poor MCU momentum killing recently on top of it all. GotG3 really doesn’t count for much since it’s so contained to that trilogy. It is in the perfect spot to flop hard if people don’t love it on the level of a GotG3 or something. That is a big ask. Even then, I think roughly half of the first movie is the best case scenario for it. 

Even GoTG3 got hit hard by MCU fatigue, it's predecessor opened 20m higher despite 6 years of inflation and I recall gross estimates back in 2021 being as high as 500m (which it might have arguably hit had it opened in place of MOM)

[baumer]

9 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

 

@baumer I can’t wait to see the movie. September 1st we get it.  
 

Agree it has easily been the box office story of the year. When was the last time a film nobody had even heard of made this kind of money? A bygone era, that’s when

 

I'm so glad it's finally gone international. I'm really looking forward to reading what you think about the film. Tag me in a post as soon as you get to see it

[Jiffy]

Hmm what is the precedent for other July mega-openers increasing only 10% on 2nd Saturday.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Even GoTG3 got hit hard by MCU fatigue, it's predecessor opened 20m higher despite 6 years of inflation and I recall gross estimates back in 2021 being as high as 500m (which it might have arguably hit had it opened in place of MOM)

GotG3 going below AM3 OW if fantastic WOM hadn’t immediately kicked in on Sat/Sun and saved it was the ultimate proof of the state of MCU momentum right now. That shouldn’t have even been a remote possibility. The brand has taken such a huge hit, people are in denial if they don’t see it. 

[Cheddar Please]

3 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Hmm what is the precedent for other July mega-openers increasing only 10% on 2nd Saturday.

None, but tbf there is also no precedent for a blockbuster of this size dropping only 18% from Monday - Thursday after having already dropped a mere 40% on it's first Monday

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[baumer]

 I couldn't get into Barbenheimer so Im here to watch haunted mansion....and I just saw the trailer for Gran Turismo. I think it looks pretty damn awesome.  It also helps that sheriff Jim Hopper is in it. 

[Deep Wang]

31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Absolutely. 225 would be a massive win for any of those. Marvels can maybe go 175ish if well liked. Dune near locked under 150 and THG under 100 (maybe well under 100) imo

 

I guess I'm very curious what you think the previews and OW would be so that it can attain $175m with good wom?

[JustLurking]

32 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Absolutely. 225 would be a massive win for any of those. Marvels can maybe go 175ish if well liked. Dune near locked under 150 and THG under 100 (maybe well under 100) imo

are these your followup to your transformers prediction?

[baumer]

The marvels looks pretty horrible.

[Eevin]

37 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Absolutely. 225 would be a massive win for any of those. Marvels can maybe go 175ish if well liked. Dune near locked under 150 and THG under 100 (maybe well under 100) imo

i would love to someday approach my life with the unearned confidence with which you make some of your predictions 

[Bob Train]

I’ve seen some people say that if Captain Marvel got a boost from Endgame than how come Ant Man 2 didn’t. However, Ant Man 2 did get a boost obviously because Ant Man 3 declined 25% from Ant Man 2 despite being more important to the MCU as a whole.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Bob Train

[Michael Gary Scott]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

The marvels looks pretty horrible.

I disagree Iman is great and knows more about the MCU than most people on here so I hope the film is a success for her career

[Michael Gary Scott]

Also Fast X was terrible only a great Jason Momoa performance made it watchable for me. The ending is absolutely laughable. 

[deniima]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I’ve seen some people say that if Captain Marvel got a boost from Endgame than how come Ant Man 2 didn’t. However, Ant Man 2 did get a boost obviously because Ant Man 3 declined 25% from Ant Man 2 despite being more important to the MCU as a whole.

Ant Man 3 declined from 2 because it had arguably the worst WOM for an MCU movie. Not because it didn’t have the “Endgame boost”. 

[Firepower]

I don't see how The Marvels could succeed in the current market, MCU state and its current stats, it's gonna be domestic heavy for sure.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Firepower