National Cinema Day Draw 8.5m admission | GT $17.4m | Barbie $15.1m | BB: $12.2m | Oppy: $8.2m | TMNT: $6.1m | Meg2: $4.8m

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

 

It's weird. At the time I felt like it was a cultural phenomenon. At least in the fact that after the movie people were using the word inception to describe anything that's confusing and multilayered. It also felt like everyone around me watched it, more so than Nolan's other movies at least.

The thing with Inception is it did not open up that big. It only made 62 million opening weekend but legs kicked in despite only receiving a B+ Cinema score which would be death for a lot of movies but the buzz was out there and people went. It's still Leo's second biggest grossing movie behind Titanic.  Which reminds me how few movie's he makes. Killers  of The Flower Moon will be only his eighth movie released since Inception 13 years later. 

[eeetooki]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Man that Barbie and GT tiny difference.

[MattW]

I think doing half price would be a better balance for ncd, premium screens still get their due while regular screen matinees are mostly in the same $3-4 range. 

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gran Turismo could match its 60M budget domestically, which is another ok/not terrible gross for Sony this year. Aside from Spider-Verse their year has been largely bleh. Equalizer should turn a decent profit as long as it doesn't drop too much from the last two, but it won't be anything outstanding.

I can’t see $60m happening, that would be 3.5x legs from an opening weekend that already had lots in previews and a NCD boost. 

[eeetooki]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The thing with Inception is it did not open up that big. It only made 62 million opening weekend but legs kicked in despite only receiving a B+ Cinema score which would be death for a lot of movies but the buzz was out there and people went. It's still Leo's second biggest grossing movie behind Titanic.  Which reminds me how few movie's he makes. Killers  of The Flower Moon will be only his eighth movie released since Inception 13 years later. 

 

With Leo's brand recognition and star power it feels like he's starred in like three 1 billion movies or soemthing.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Hilts said:

https://deadline.com/2023/08/box-office-gran-turismo-barbie-blue-beetle-1235528051

 

 

Barbenheimer Sunday was around 7M admissions - even Engame Sunday was a bit over 9M. Again, might look silly by tomorrow, but I just (edit) can’t see NCD blowing past the former and approaching the latter. Give me the under on 7.5M admits, which is what NCD had last year; more like $25-$30M aggregate gross

 

Those 3.1M presales is not much different than a big Thursday preview, audiences recognizing the limited supply and buying early, where even walk-up monster JWD (+68%) and MI7 w/ Tue discount (+85%) couldn’t double sales at MTC1 on final day 

Edited August 27, 2023 by M37

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Budget: $11M

White: 67%, Latinx: 20% Black: 7%

18-34: 86%

LGBTQ+: 59%

Markets: NY, LA, SF & Austin

Oh wow an LGBT statistic! Love it. 

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I can’t see $60m happening, that would be 3.5x legs from an opening weekend that already had lots in previews and a NCD boost. 

GT should be fine after theatrical and streaming sales. They were really smart to keep the budget for so low.

 

Even if Barbie comes in over GT with actuals, they got the win this weekend with all Sun headlines saying GT BIGGER than Barbie this weekend while barely mentioning the 14 days of EA thing.

[eeetooki]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

GT should be fine after theatrical and streaming sales. They were really smart to keep the budget for so low.

 

Even if Barbie comes in over GT with actuals, they got the win this weekend with all Sun headlines saying GT BIGGER than Barbie this weekend while barely mentioning the 14 days of EA thing.

 

Honestly GT just isn't the kind of movie that I would be motivated to watch in the theatres, no matter how good the WOM is. But if I am bored browsing through streaming websites and it has a good reputation, I will probably watch it. I feel like it could do very well in streaming sales.

[M37]

46 minutes ago, noobmaster69 said:

Barbie has 16.25% (504÷3100) of the total presale ticket. If Barbie has $7.75m on Sunday, then there will be 12m admissions(7.75÷4÷0.1625)?

It’s not going to be a linear relationship though: the films in higher demand will sell a higher share in advance, as well audience composition, where Barbie has already proven to be a more pre-sale heavy title than say TMNT or Meg 2

[Issac Newton]

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

Title	Estimated weekend	% change	Locations	Location change	Average	Total	Weekend	Distributor
Gran Turismo	$17,300,000		3,856		$4,487	$17,300,000	1	Sony Pictures
Barbie	$17,100,000	-19%	3,736	-267	$4,577	$594,801,000	6	Warner Bros.
Blue Beetle	$12,765,000	-49%	3,871		$3,298	$46,309,000	2	Warner Bros.
Oppenheimer	$9,000,000	-16%	2,872	-449	$3,134	$300,024,000	6	Universal
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	$6,100,000	-29%	3,145	-332	$1,940	$98,143,000	4	Paramount
Meg 2: The Trench	$5,100,000	-25%	2,932	-470	$1,739	$74,433,000	4	Warner Bros.
Strays	$4,650,000	-44%	3,232	9	$1,439	$16,126,000	2	Universal
The Hill	$2,515,000		1,570		$1,602	$2,515,000	1	Briarcliff
Haunted Mansion	$2,100,000	-31%	1,630	-550	$1,288	$62,256,861	5	Disney
Talk To Me	$2,088,501	-33%	1,321	-1,058	$1,581	$41,066,389	5	A24
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One	$2,075,000	-24%	1,680	72	$1,235	$168,063,000	7	Paramount
Sound of Freedom	$2,001,292	-23%	1,602	-550	$1,249	$181,037,214	8	Angel Studios
Golda	$1,723,337		883		$1,952	$1,723,337	1	Bleecker Street
Jurassic Park [30th anniversary re-release]	$1,700,000		1,224		$1,389			Universal
The Last Voyage of the Demeter	$790,000	-68%	1,381	-1,334	$572	$13,296,000	3	Universal
Bottoms	$516,254		10		$51,625	$516,254	1	MGM
The Little Mermaid	$510,000	1760%	1,600	1,560	$319	$297,755,905	14	Disney
Elemental	$300,000	-20%	235	-150	$1,277	$151,698,579	11	Disney
The Super Mario Bros. Movie	$280,000	2086%	1,451	1,383	$193	$574,548,000	21	Universal
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	$270,000	-39%	245	-220	$1,102	$174,133,602	9	Disney
Oldboy	$182,000	-63%	182	-68	$1,000	$2,150,705	962	Neon
Theater Camp	$120,000	-11%	120	-10	$1,000	$3,638,208	7	Searchlight [Disney]
Asteroid City	$76,000	245%	310	266	$245	$28,031,000	11	Focus Features [Universal]
Catvideofest 2023	$39,350	-32%	22	-4	$1,789	$366,934	4	Oscilloscope
Jules	$36,818	-84%	65	-580	$566	$1,770,389	3	Bleecker Street
Fremont	$16,236		4		$4,059	$16,236	1	Music Box Films
Scrapper	$15,079		4		$3,770	$15,079	1	Kino Lorber
Piaffe	$5,120		1		$5,120	$5,120	1	Oscilloscope

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[El Gato]

33 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

I contributed to that! Bought two tickets each, for Barbie and Blue Beetle today

Edited August 27, 2023 by El Gato

[DAJK]

This might sound bad, but I kind of hope National Cinema Day ticket sales drop a little bit from last year (say, 6.5M vs 8M). If it matches or surpasses, theaters will no doubt raise the prices again next year to $6, and then to $8 the following year, until eventually it just becomes a “PLFs cost the same as regular tickets and there’s no discount for regular admissions.” There needs to be a cap for what people are willing to pay, or else the financial incentive will disappear and NCD will die in 4-5 years.

[Mojoguy]

Just now, DAJK said:

This might sound bad, but I kind of hope National Cinema Day ticket sales drop a little bit from last year (say, 6.5M vs 8M). If it matches or surpasses, theaters will no doubt raise the prices again next year to $6, and then to $8 the following year, until eventually it just becomes a “PLFs cost the same as regular tickets and there’s no discount for regular admissions.” There needs to be a cap for what people are willing to pay, or else the financial incentive will disappear and NCD will die in 4-5 years.

To be fair, there has been record inflation going on this past year. It was understable why they raised prices. $4 is still a great deal for those that can't afford full price. With so many sellout it's already a huge hit this year. Better selection of films this year helps too.

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

This might sound bad, but I kind of hope National Cinema Day ticket sales drop a little bit from last year (say, 6.5M vs 8M). If it matches or surpasses, theaters will no doubt raise the prices again next year to $6, and then to $8 the following year, until eventually it just becomes a “PLFs cost the same as regular tickets and there’s no discount for regular admissions.” There needs to be a cap for what people are willing to pay, or else the financial incentive will disappear and NCD will die in 4-5 years.

From Deadline Hollywood

 

"One rival studio projection is that National Cinema Day will ring up $35M for all titles (or 8.75M admissions), which is 13% above Saturday’s $31M, and 22% ahead of Friday’s $28.6M for all titles in what’s looking like a $94.6M weekend, +79% over the same frame a year ago."

[Issac Newton]

Weekend Breakdown

 

1.) Gran Turismo (Sony) 3,856 theaters, Fri $8.65M (includes $5.3M previews) Sat $4.2M Sun $4.45M 3-day $17.3M/Wk 1

2.) Barbie (WB) 3,736 (-267) theaters, Fri $4M (-37%) Sat $5.35M Sun $7.75M 3-day $17.1M (-19%)/Total $594.8M/Wk 6

3.) Blue Beetle (WB) 3,871 theaters, Fri $2.6M (-74%), Sat $4.1M Sun $2.28M 3-day $12.7M (-49%)/Total $46.3M/Wk 2

4.) Oppenheimer (Uni) 2,872 (-449) theaters Fri $2.28M (-25%),Sat $3.2M Sun $3.45M 3-day $9M (-16%)/Total $300M/Wk 6

5.) Teenage Mutanta Ninja Turtles…(Par) 3,145 (-332) theaters Fri $1.53M (-35%) Sat $2.4M Sun $2.16M 3-day $6.1M (-29%), Total $98.1M/Wk 4

6.) The Meg 2: The Trench (WB) 2,932 (-470) theaters Fri $1M (-43%) Sat $1.76M Sun $2.28M 3-day $5.1M (-25%)/Total $74.4M/ Wk 4

7.) Strays (Uni) 3,232 (+9) theaters, Fri $1.16M (-66%) Sat $1.66M Sun $1.83M 3-day $4.65M (-44%)/Total $16.1M/ Wk 2

8.) Retribution (Road) 1,750 theaters, Fri $1.29M Sat $1.08M Sun $975K 3-day $3.348M/Wk 1

9.) Talk to Me (A24) 1,789 (-x) theaters Fri $971K Sat $1.26M Sun $890K 3-day $3.12M (-38%) Total $37.3M/Wk 4

10.) The Hill (Briar) 1,570 theaters Fri $805K Sat $830K Sun $880K 3-day $2.515M Wk 1

Notables:
Golda (BST) 883 theaters, Fri $782K Sat $522K Sun $418K 3-day $1.72M /Wk 1

[Issac Newton]

Bottoms

 

Diversity demos were 67% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 14% Asian

 

93% positive. Women under 25 rated it 98% with a 96% definite recommend on PostTrak.

[Issac Newton]