National Cinema Day Draw 8.5m admission | GT $17.4m | Barbie $15.1m | BB: $12.2m | Oppy: $8.2m | TMNT: $6.1m | Meg2: $4.8m

[electride]

44 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

So everything is down from Sunday estimates except Gran Turismo which is up and TMNT which is way up, then? Paramount really did go super conservative on their NCD estimations after all.

[Caylu]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

 

Thats US$2 million less than the-numbers.com for Barbies and TMNT almost US$1 million more than the estaimte?

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	(1)	Barbie	Warner Bros.	$7,750,000	+45%	+23%	3,736	$2,074	$594,801,000	38
2	(3)	Blue Beetle	Warner Bros.	$6,000,000	+45%	-8%	3,871	$1,550	$46,309,000	10
3	(2)	Gran Turismo: Based on a …	Sony Pictures	$4,450,000	+6%		3,856	$1,154	$17,150,000	3
4	(4)	Oppenheimer	Universal	$3,450,000	+6%	+3%	2,872	$1,201	$300,024,000	38
5	(6)	Meg 2: The Trench	Warner Bros.	$2,280,000	+30%	+13%	2,932	$778	$74,433,000	24
6	(5)	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turt…	Paramount Pi…	$2,160,000	-10%	-17%	3,145	$687	$98,143,000	26

Edited August 28, 2023 by Caylu

[Bob Train]

They should do cinema day but for the whole weekend

[Mojoguy]

I feel like like TMNT should be a bigger deal than it is. Fantastic reviews and animation. Did families just choose Spiderverse and Barbie and ignore the rest of the summer? Did Bayturtle films destroy the brand? Or people just won't show up for animated TMNT after getting live action?

[Kalo]

6 hours ago, CJohn said:

Apparently it is 60M, not 100M.

 

That's alot better if that's the case

[Kon]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I feel like like TMNT should be a bigger deal than it is. Fantastic reviews and animation. Did families just choose Spiderverse and Barbie and ignore the rest of the summer? Did Bayturtle films destroy the brand? Or people just won't show up for animated TMNT after getting live action?

 

I've read this idea before, but I don't know why the prior existence of a live action movie would negatively affect an animated movie.

 

It seems more likely there aren't a lot of interest in TMNT brand between young people.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Kon

[Mojoguy]

15 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

They should do cinema day but for the whole weekend

NCD being a just a day makes it more of event and special. Weekend wouldn't work as well.

[electride]

20 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I feel like like TMNT should be a bigger deal than it is. Fantastic reviews and animation. Did families just choose Spiderverse and Barbie and ignore the rest of the summer? Did Bayturtle films destroy the brand? Or people just won't show up for animated TMNT after getting live action?

The way I see it it's mainly three factors:

1. Moving a live action property to animated format is extremely difficult.

2. The strike probably affected things more than people like to admit, the movie had an extremely star studded cast that didn't get to do a lot of PR for it.

3. TMNT was never that big to begin with in the cinema space, which compounds on the first point.

 

We underestimate that Spider-Verse had to run a marathon to get to the status it has today; it continued to enjoy a prolonged revival in home formats after exiting theaters, and even with that all accounted for the sequel is still not even making as much money as the worst live action Spidey. If Spider-Verse 1 could only get to high $300M during a holiday period I realistically think the most Turtles could've hoped for was half of that. Even PIB2 was probably a stretch to envision since both its predecessor and Shrek were huge household franchises once and only needed a good movie to remind people to stick with it.

 

The ideal scenario is Turtles enjoying some prolonged late legs and then having a second revival through home formats and the upcoming series. It could help boost it for the sequel.

Edited August 28, 2023 by electride

[redfirebird2008]

So Charlie is estimating a 17.5% drop from Saturday to Sunday for Oppenheimer. Not much of a NCD boost for that movie. 

[ChipDerby]

So Oppenheimer missed $300 mil on Sunday then

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

So Oppenheimer missed $300 mil on Sunday then

Hopefully will get there with Monday’s gross. The other movies that had a huge boost on Sunday are looking at massive percentage drops on Monday, but that should not be the case for Oppy when it already dropped a bunch on Sunday. 

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So Charlie is estimating a 17.5% drop from Saturday to Sunday for Oppenheimer. Not much of a NCD boost for that movie. 

I think it was pretty much a wash. It lost so much in average price that the extra admissions didn't really help.

But also, pretty much everything else was a shitshow in terms of estimates. 

[Bob Train]

11 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So Charlie is estimating a 17.5% drop from Saturday to Sunday for Oppenheimer. Not much of a NCD boost for that movie. 

I think some of the 70mm IMAX locations which have $30 tickets changed it to $4 for cinema day

Maybe not a good decision because they would have sold out either way

[Mojoguy]

15 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I think it was pretty much a wash. It lost so much in average price that the extra admissions didn't really help.

But also, pretty much everything else was a shitshow in terms of estimates. 

We should have better estimates next year if NCD stays on the same Sun pre Labor Day WE.

 

NCD really worked out for theaters this year, and the new date should be cemented. Two boosted weekends NCD+LD are better than having NCD on LD WE.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mojoguy

[Borobudur]

6 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Which next movie has TikTok decided is the next big hit?

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Those are massively different to what's on mojo for Sun. Barbie in particular would be way lower. TMNT far higher.

 

1 hour ago, electride said:

So everything is down from Sunday estimates except Gran Turismo which is up and TMNT which is way up, then? Paramount really did go super conservative on their NCD estimations after all.

Not that surprising if your Sunday estimates is +45%. 

[Mojoguy]

15 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I think some of the 70mm IMAX locations which have $30 tickets changed it to $4 for cinema day

Maybe not a good decision because they would have sold out either way

Oppy lost money this Sun since normal tickets would have still sold out. But it was just for one day so whatever.

[CJohn]

6 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@CJohn I see weekend results (8/24 to 8/27) here have yet to be released, but Gran Turismo wasn't doing too shabby a week ago, it's probably gonna finish somewhere between 80-100k tickets sold. For a movie that opened to under 30k, good legs.

 

I don't really know everything that opened this week, I believe Talk to Me did? That probably did okay.

Alibi 2 and a Z-level animation were ultra wide and bomb megabombed.

 

Talk to Me did really well considering how limited it was. 

 

GT should pass the 100k tickets sold. A very big hit for our market. 

[ChipDerby]

25 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I think some of the 70mm IMAX locations which have $30 tickets changed it to $4 for cinema day

Maybe not a good decision because they would have sold out either way

Or maybe a good decision to allow people who can't afford a $30 movie ticket to see the film

[eeetooki]

58 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So Charlie is estimating a 17.5% drop from Saturday to Sunday for Oppenheimer. Not much of a NCD boost for that movie. 

If anything the loss in PLF premium hurts it. It might have helped Oppenheimer when it's at the end of its legs but the capacity for it is still relatively full at this point.