THE UNMARVELOUS WEEKEND THREAD | FEATURING MELTDOWNS, ARMCHAIR ANALYSIS, AND SEXISM

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I’m not sure The Marvels is even reaching 200 million worldwide. Seems to be flopping in every market 

Really? Surely it's not doing  that badly

Edited November 10, 2023 by Maggie

[Giorno]

4 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Each marvel movie is worth $350m to D+, TV & pVOD, that alone will recover it's total cost of $300m. If Ant-Man 3 with 150m marketing budget needed 500m to break even then The Marvels with 75m P&A budget would need 170m less than Ant-Man3 WW to break even, something around 270m. But 75m is just my guess.

Rule of thumb is production x 2.5 = breakeven

 

The marvels cost 220m after tax breaks which means 550m break even

 

Even best case using the campea formula which is 1.33 × (prod + mark) gives you roughly $400m break even and marvels might do half of that 

[Hatebox]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I’m not sure The Marvels is even reaching 200 million worldwide. Seems to be flopping in every market 

it’d be brilliant if it missed 200 but surely not?
 

I haven’t actually checked recently - what’s the biggest bomb of all time? 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think Deadline is slowing the drop, so it doesn't seem like it was sudden and a huge miss...a few million per day (heading from $60M+ to up to $55M here but mentioning $47M) means tomorrow's update can be a few more million down, and then Sunday a few more:)...

It’s kind of amazing how the trades are trying desperately to sugar coat it here when this is unequivocally one of the biggest franchise failure of all time. In that sense, this movie is lucky, because most things would be getting torn to shreds by the media with this kind of failure. 

[DInky]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Each marvel movie is worth $350m to D+, TV & pVOD, that alone will recover it's total cost of $300m. If Ant-Man 3 with 150m marketing budget needed 500m to break even then The Marvels with 75m P&A budget would need 170m less than Ant-Man3 WW to break even, something around 270m. But 75m is just my guess.

 

First of all, that 500M breakeven for Quantumania is studio BS to make it seem like the movie wasn't a complete failure.

Secondly, there are revenue streams after the theatrical run, sure, but I'd take those Disney+ revenue numbers with a huge grain of salt. It's Disney+ paying Disney for the movie. There's no actual profit there. Make no mistake, The Marvels is one of the biggest theatrical bombs ever. Perhaps it will get into black one day but it'll be a long time.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

it’d be brilliant if it missed 200 but surely not?
 

I haven’t actually checked recently - what’s the biggest bomb of all time? 

 

it seems to be bottoming out in every market. If it crosses 200m it will be barely 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

“No more MCU…”

 

[Willowra]

1 minute ago, Giorno said:

Rule of thumb is production x 2.5 = breakeven

 

The marvels cost 220m after tax breaks which means 550m break even

 

Even best case using the campea formula which is 1.33 × (prod + mark) gives you roughly $400m break even and marvels might do half of that 

There is no Rule of thumb. That 2.5x formula is for a blockbuster movie whose marketing budget is 150m but if studios reduces marketing budget then obviously break even point will be also decrease. Also when it is worth 350m to D+, TV & digital & it's total cost is 300m then explain how it would lose money if it's P&A budget is just 75m?

[DInky]

3 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Rule of thumb is production x 2.5 = breakeven

 

The marvels cost 220m after tax breaks which means 550m break even

 

Even best case using the campea formula which is 1.33 × (prod + mark) gives you roughly $400m break even and marvels might do half of that 

 

I've never gotten this. It doesn't add up unless you include other revenue streams. The film might turn a profit in the end but it won't from its theatrical run.

[Willowra]

9 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

First of all, that 500M breakeven for Quantumania is studio BS to make it seem like the movie wasn't a complete failure.

Secondly, there are revenue streams after the theatrical run, sure, but I'd take those Disney+ revenue numbers with a huge grain of salt. It's Disney+ paying Disney for the movie. There's no actual profit there. Make no mistake, The Marvels is one of the biggest theatrical bombs ever. Perhaps it will get into black one day but it'll be a long time.

Do you know how many cancellations D+ will face if they stop putting new Marvel content on D+? Atleast 25m subscriptions WW, which means annual loss of $2B. With 5-6 MCU releases per year each project is worth 200m to D+ alone. Yes The Marvels is theatrical bomb but it still won't lose money.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Willowra

[Hatebox]

4 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Also when it is worth 350m to D+, TV & digital & it's total cost is 300m then explain how it would lose money if it's P&A budget is just 75m?

how is that figure determined? 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

36 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I think y'all have to be careful in the belief that everything comic book related is going to drop from previous installments.  There's no reason yet to believe that The Batman 2 or Deadpool 3 or anything else is in jeopardy.  Nobody asked for or wanted "The Marvels" apparently and MCU overall had been on a bit of a downward spiral. 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3. was somewhat removed from current MCU as it really was just it's own thing and that did not see a worldwide decrease from previous movies. 

Posts on the boxoffice subreddit about the film don't even get above 1k upvotes, so people who care about the film are a bubble inside a bubble. More than 99% of people don't even care about box office results, so the next Marvel film won't be swayed by how well or terrible this film does.

 

[Willowra]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

how is that figure determined? 

From deadline. WK was worth 350m to D+, TV &, pVOD & so other 2022 MCU releases. Also price of D+ have increased by 100% so I don't know how much each MCU movie is worth now to D+, may be 250m to D+ alone & another 150m to TV & pVOD.

[The GOAT]

8 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I've just watched The Marvels. Wow, what the hell was that movie?

 

Was it edited by a sushiman? I'm being serious. There's no pace /flow between scenes. Very bizarre. 

 

I think South Korea will hate it.

Easily one of the worst MCU movies I've ever seen. 

What are your thoughts on the dialogue? Make your ears want to screech, too? 

[DInky]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

From deadline. WK was worth 350m to D+, TV &, pVOD & so other 2022 MCU releases. Also price of D+ have increased by 100% so I don't know how much each MCU movie is worth now to D+, may be 250m to D+ alone & another 150m to TV & pVOD.

 

You referring to this?

 

https://deadline.com/2023/04/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-profits-1235320190/

 

That television/streaming number is very  questionable. As I said, it's Disney+ paying Disney to have the movie on their service. Now, if Disney was licensing it to Netflix then that'd be a different story.

Edited November 11, 2023 by DInky

[Willowra]

1 minute ago, DInky said:

 

You referring to this?

 

https://deadline.com/2023/04/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-profits-1235320190/

 

That television/streaming number is very  questionable. As I said, it's Disney+ paying Disney to have the movie on their service. Now, if Disney was licensing it to Netflix then that'd be a different story.

I think you need to read my D+ cancellations post again.

[DInky]

5 minutes ago, Willowra said:

I think you need to read my D+ cancellations post again.

 

But they're not talking about that here.

 

From the article:

"Global streaming/TV revenues of $170M include what Disney paid itself to put the movie on Disney+."

Edited November 11, 2023 by DInky

[Valonqar]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s kind of amazing how the trades are trying desperately to sugar coat it here when this is unequivocally one of the biggest franchise failure of all time. In that sense, this movie is lucky, because most things would be getting torn to shreds by the media with this kind of failure. 

 

It doesn't fit in media narrative to admit how big of a failure it is, that's why. Nevertheless, the stench of flop already spread and no sugarcoating can stop the trainwreck. This isn't a poorly marketed amazing movie that audience will discover and revive with out of this world WOM and second weekend going up from the OW like Titanic and 0.7% drops after that for 15 consecutive weeks,etc etc. It's a mid movie at best, actually bad at worst that had nothing but apathy since its announcement and that completely miscalculated who it was for. There's no recovery from that.

[TheFlatLannister]

24 minutes ago, Willowra said:

100 DOM, 70 OS

Sheesh this aged well 

 

[Willowra]

Just now, DInky said:

 

But they're not talking about that here.

How would you determine worth of a MCU project to D+? If they stop putting new marvel content on D+ they will face cancellations of D+ subscriptions & so they'll lose money & that's how you determine worth of a MCU project to D+.